Predict the Atlantic Standings

[WhereAreTheCookies]

It's a possibility. Like I said, the most important additions to Detroit this year is better coaching and better goaltending. Husso was 7th in Vezina voting on a St. Louis team that was not nearly as good defensively as they were in years past. Boughner has run one of the top PKs in the league the last 4 seasons, and Lalonde comes from the Tampa program.

The Blues defense was still better than Detroits will be this season. Husso also has been extremely up and down the past few years not just in the NHL but in the AHL also. Counting on a goalie with 1 solid NHL season is every bit as risky as Buffalo counting on Comrie having one good season, or Toronto counting on Murray/Samsonov to bounce back.

Agree completely. I also think people really overrate how bad Chiarot is. Both him and Maatta will be fine in their roles.

Chiarot can be a solid 2nd pairing guy, but I'd be leery of him on the top pairing, Though Seider may be good enough to cover any shortcomings. Maatta is good, but he's a 3rd pairing guy who can kill penalties.

Other than those 3 who are they counting on? Hronek? Weren't Detroit fans complaining about how terrible he was defensively all last season? Hagg? Buffalo and Philly fans can tell you all about Hagg. Pysyk whenever he comes back? Edvinsson is a rookie so who knows if he'll make the roster. Lindstrom is still young, maybe he improves.

To me it looks like Detroit is counting on a whole lot of maybe's. Just don't see them finishing higher than Ottawa, and I don't like the Sens at all.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'm curious what makes the goaltending situation horrible to you. Talbot has had like a .915 save percentage the last 3 seasons and Forsberg is coming off a .917 save percentage last year in 46 games and in the minimal NHL sample size before that it's a reasonably average save percentage.

The numbers don't seem to suggest it'll be terrible. Is it a personal dislike towards Talbot/Forsberg? Is it the styles at which they play that makes them terrible? Is it the lack of track record Forsberg has?

Yeah, I've always thought Talbot was a fraud going back to his Oilers days.

I like Forsberg. I just feel like the combination of Talbot and that defense is going to be bad.

 

[Vukotal Recall]

The only sure bet is my Habs being last, even if they will still overperform for stretches. The future is bright... the present not so much. As for the rest, I honestly would not be surprised at literally any finishing order. Tampa has regressed, the Leafs are on the precipice of utterly flaming out with zero depth, Panthers overall D sucks, Red Wings, Buffalo and Ottawa all on the rise (the latter two especially). Boston can make noise in playoffs, but might not ace the regular season. Parity, baby!

 

[Face Of Bear]

Toronto
Tampa
Florida
----------
Boston
Detroit
Buffalo
Ottawa
Montreal

 

[Beezeral]

It doesn't really matter if it's quantifiable considering you clearly don't know or understand what it's quantifying. The charts try to encompass a lot of things and put out a graphic without explaining anything.

Dom's chart's while lacking the depth of some of the more respected public analytics guys out there, are pretty easy to read. He shows what his model projects each player to do on offense and also gives them an individual offensive score with an individual defensive score.

Those are combined to give Dom's version of an overall score (wins) which is described by him as GSVA.

You should be using data to prove things, but one number you don't understand being higher than another number you don't understand isn't really proof of anything. Your argument here reads like you want to be a math guy without doing any of the work.

I'll respectfully disagree that I don't understand the charts I am posting. I will say that I prefer other charts, specifically the ones from JFresh because he provides much more detail, especially when it comes to specific areas of the game like zone entry and exit. However, I don't subcrive to JFresh's patreon so I used what I had access to. I'll continue to rely on saying that a chart that is backed by data is a much better argument than people using feels.

It's extremely childish the way you glide past specific criticisms of your methodology by suggesting critics of it don't have one of their own beyond a gut feeling. It's either disingenuous or just ignorant.

I'll strongly object to you calling me childish when I am responding to people making some very bold claims and showing zero work to back it up. Maybe I missed a post where someone actually made an objective argument against Dom's charts and I didn't respond, but I am pretty sure that I have responded that I welcome anyone posting JFresh, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, or any other argument to counter the charts I am using. To me it's childish to claim a team that scored 120 less goals than the Panthers has a better offense and then provide zero support to back up the claim.

You also didn't address that they just take up a lot of space on the page and are annoying when you could just type the number you hold so dearly.

Sorry, but meh. It's much cleaner to post the chart than it is to say according to Dom, Player X has a GSVA of 1.5

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

IMO I believe it's always going to be a good match up Sabres/Leafs. Edge to Leafs for center, Edge to Leafs left wing, Edge to Sabres right wing, Edge to Sabres D, even steven for goalies. Sabres will be tough to beat this year. The Atlantic balancing act has arrived.

+++ = Center lines 1 and 2 LEAFS
++ = Center lines 3 and 4 SABRES

++ = Left Wing lines 1 and 2 LEAFS
--- = Left Wing lines 3 and 4 LEAFS AND SABRES

--- = Right Wing lines 1 and 2 LEAFS AND SABRES
++ = Right Wing lines 3 and 4 SABRES

+ = Left D Top SABRES
+ = Left D Bottom LEAFS

+ = Right D Top SABRES
+ = Right D Bottom LEAFS

--- = Goalies LEAFS AND SABRES

POS	STARTER	SECOND	THIRD+
Center	Auston Matthews	John Tavares	David Kampf Calle Jarnkrok Nicholas Abruzzese Adam Gaudette
Left Wing	Michael Bunting	William Nylander	Pierre Engvall Nicholas Robertson Kyle Clifford
Right Wing	Mitchell Marner	Alexander Kerfoot	Wayne Simmonds Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Left Defenseman	Morgan Rielly	Jake Muzzin	Mark Giordano Rasmus Sandin Victor Mete
Right Defenseman	T.J. Brodie	Justin Holl	Timothy Liljegren Jordie Benn
Goalie	Ilya Samsonov	Matt Murray	—

OS	STARTER	SECOND	THIRD+
Center	Tage Thompson	Casey Mittelstadt	Dylan Cozens Zemgus Girgensons Riley Sheahan
Left Wing	Jeff Skinner	Peyton Krebs	Rasmus Asplund Anders Bjork Brett Murray
Right Wing	Victor Olofsson	Alex Tuch Jack Quin JJ Peterka	Vinnie Hinostroza Kyle Okposo
Left Defenseman	Mattias Samuelsson	Owen Power	Jacob Bryson
Right Defenseman	Rasmus Dahlin	Henri Jokiharju	Ilya Lyubushkin Casey Fitzgerald
Goalie	Craig Anderson	Eric Comrie	Malcolm Subban Ben Bishop

what? RW edge to the Sabres? in what world is that a reality? the Leafs top 2 RW put up 97 and 80 points


there legitimately is not a spot on the roster where Buffalo is better than Toronto.

not one

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Buffalo sat on their ass and watched Ottawa add Debrincat, and Giroux and Talbot.

they watched Detroit add Kubalik and Perron and Husso

and they get Comire and Lybushkin.

it's not enough,.

Or you could finally stop ignoring everything else we added from last year, which is actually quite a lot.

People are really underrating the Wings. They had the best summer out of any of the bad teams last year.

Sens added a bunch too. The question though is did Detroit improve more than them or the Sabres from last year's teams? You know, if you include all of the internal improvements and prior injuries .

7. Buffalo - 84pts (The rookies will be entertaining but goalie and defense are still weakpoints.)

I'd consider our G a question mark right now more so than a weakness.

Really, really confused how our D is a weak point. Both just in general and how you used it as a + for Detroit.

I'll continue to rely on saying that a chart that is backed by data is a much better argument than people using feels.

That's fine and all, just remember it won't really do you any good when comparing them between players on top teams to those on bottom teams.

This is again assuming the charts are worthwhile in the first place.

there legitimately is not a spot on the roster where Buffalo is better than Toronto.

not one

What about the entire left side? Maybe they meant that instead of RW. Bottom six too.

Leafs probably have a little bit better D depth for now but it'll be short lived. Might take our top 3 D this year depending on how Power does.

Probably just take our whole team in 2 years.

 

[Blowfish]

what? RW edge to the Sabres? in what world is that a reality? the Leafs top 2 RW put up 97 and 80 points


there legitimately is not a spot on the roster where Buffalo is better than Toronto.

not one

Says the overzealous leaf fan. I shared my opinion based on all positions. Would love to see your take using my simple comparison.

 

[Blowfish]

Wait, why would the Sabres have the edge at RW? Marner/Nylander is a deadly 1-2 punch. Doesn't even matter much who the L3 and L4 RW are. High-end talent trumps depth, IMO.

If the Leafs are weak up front, it's on LW.

I would take RIGHT WING Olofsson Tuch Quin Peterka Okoposo over RIGHT WING Marner Kerfoot Simmonds and Kubel in a heartbeat....

Cheaper and younger and overall better.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I would take RIGHT WING Olofsson Tuch Quin Peterka Okoposo over RIGHT WING Marner Kerfoot Simmonds and Kubel in a heartbeat....

You're so objective that you didn't even include Toronto's actual second-line RW in the comparison.

 

[Blowfish]

You're so objective that you didn't even include Toronto's actual second-line RW in the comparison.

Who is that? Left wing Nylander?

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Dom's chart's while lacking the depth of some of the more respected public analytics guys out there, are pretty easy to read. He shows what his model projects each player to do on offense and also gives them an individual offensive score with an individual defensive score.

Those are combined to give Dom's version of an overall score (wins) which is described by him as GSVA.

I'll respectfully disagree that I don't understand the charts I am posting. I will say that I prefer other charts, specifically the ones from JFresh because he provides much more detail, especially when it comes to specific areas of the game like zone entry and exit. However, I don't subcrive to JFresh's patreon so I used what I had access to. I'll continue to rely on saying that a chart that is backed by data is a much better argument than people using feels.


I'll strongly object to you calling me childish when I am responding to people making some very bold claims and showing zero work to back it up. Maybe I missed a post where someone actually made an objective argument against Dom's charts and I didn't respond, but I am pretty sure that I have responded that I welcome anyone posting JFresh, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, or any other argument to counter the charts I am using. To me it's childish to claim a team that scored 120 less goals than the Panthers has a better offense and then provide zero support to back up the claim.


Sorry, but meh. It's much cleaner to post the chart than it is to say according to Dom, Player X has a GSVA of 1.5

Great post!!

 

[ToDavid]

I would take RIGHT WING Olofsson Tuch Quin Peterka Okoposo over RIGHT WING Marner Kerfoot Simmonds and Kubel in a heartbeat....

Cheaper and younger and overall better.

Nylander is usually on the right but regardless… even Kerfoot outscored everyone on your list last year, at a lower cap hit than 3 of them.

You might want to check your math.

 

[Gurglesons]

Great post!!

I believe Dom’s model has been more predictive than Jack’s the past two years too.

 

[sabremike]

Nylander is usually on the right but regardless… even Kerfoot outscored everyone on your list last year, at a lower cap hit than 3 of them.

You might want to check your math.

Tuch played less than half a season, Olofsson's wrist was so badly injured he couldn't use his lethal shot until late in the season (when it healed he started scoring again) and Quinn was tearing the AHL a new asshole and scoring goals at a historic rate for his D2 season in that league before mono hit. The first two recovering from injuries is why we played at close to a playoff clip in the second half of the season.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I would take RIGHT WING Olofsson Tuch Quin Peterka Okoposo over RIGHT WING Marner Kerfoot Simmonds and Kubel in a heartbeat....

Cheaper and younger and overall better.

the thing is Nylander is also RW, he's had a couple a shifts at LW but he is RW the vast majority of the time.

so it's actually

Marner
Nylander
Jarnkrok
probably Simmonds

yeah Buffalo's RW isn't even close

 

[Pavels Dog]

The Blues defense was still better than Detroits will be this season. Husso also has been extremely up and down the past few years not just in the NHL but in the AHL also. Counting on a goalie with 1 solid NHL season is every bit as risky as Buffalo counting on Comrie having one good season, or Toronto counting on Murray/Samsonov to bounce back.

There's risk but they're splitting it between Nedeljkovic and Husso which is a solid bet. There's a reason that tandem is ranking pretty highly according to most.

 

[TheRumble]

Buffalo is adding top tier rookies to their team. Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and JJ Peterka. They will be far more impactful than overpaying for some vets in FA.

My team got better while the other teams did not is a very common fallacy among NHL fans.

Assuming all your rookies will pan out at the same time is another popular one. Buffalo made this mistake already with the Eichel Era.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Toronto
Tampa
Florida
----------
Boston
Detroit
Buffalo
Ottawa
Montreal

Ottawa in 7th? that's interesting

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

My team got better while the other teams did not is a very common fallacy among NHL fans.

Assuming all your rookies will pan out at the same time is another popular one. Buffalo made this mistake already with the Eichel Era.

fthat might be relevent if I said my team got better but I didn't because I'm not sure they have.

I did say the forward group might be slightly better but even that is because I don't think Mikyehev can repeat what he did last year, I expect Jarnkrok and Mikyehev to produce about the same offensively while Jarnkrok being slightly better defensively.

but as a whole I'm not convinced they are better

I just don't think they are much worse.

 

[Panthaz89]

My team got better while the other teams did not is a very common fallacy among NHL fans.

Assuming all your rookies will pan out at the same time is another popular one. Buffalo made this mistake already with the Eichel Era.

2015-2020 Sabres teams were basically one and two line teams massive difference...when Eichel or O'Reilly couldn't produce the team lost for sure.

 

[Face Of Bear]

Ottawa in 7th? that's interesting

Why?

 

[Blowfish]

The only sure bet is my Habs being last, even if they will still overperform for stretches. The future is bright... the present not so much. As for the rest, I honestly would not be surprised at literally any finishing order. Tampa has regressed, the Leafs are on the precipice of utterly flaming out with zero depth, Panthers overall D sucks, Red Wings, Buffalo and Ottawa all on the rise (the latter two especially). Boston can make noise in playoffs, but might not ace the regular season. Parity, baby!

Well said...

 

[Blowfish]

the thing is Nylander is also RW, he's had a couple a shifts at LW but he is RW the vast majority of the time.

so it's actually

Marner
Nylander
Jarnkrok
probably Simmonds

yeah Buffalo's RW isn't even close

Take a look at my initial post...let me know what you think. I tried to be fair in my assessment.

 

[Torontonian]

Tampa and Boston are ripe to regress and Florida and Toronto could struggle if Toronto can't get goaltending and Florida can't play defense.

We keep seeing this about goaltending, Toronto literately did not have goaltending the majority of the season last year and came 4th. It will be really hard for Toronto to have any worse goaltending then they did last year.

1. Toronto
2. Tampa (Could probably put them first, but they will won't try till 2nd half)
3. FLA
4. OTT (I see lots of 6-5 games coming)
5. Boston (Only here because of injuries they have starting the year, slow start, not enough time in year)
6. Detroit
7. Buffalo
8. Montreal