Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Beezeral]

Ottawa has a deeper too 6.

Show your work. Put the top 6 from each team in a 1-12 ranking. Add some tiers while you are at it

 

[Golden_Jet]

Show your work. Put the top 6 from each team in a 1-12 ranking. Add some tiers while you are at it

I said deeper top 6

Florida’s top 2 > Ottawa’s top 2
Ottawa’s 3-6 > Florida’s 3-6

 

[lomiller1]

There isn't really much in the way of analytics for actual defensive plays. This is not controversial.

It's not controversial, just wrong. rel xGA/60 is a good measure of defensive play. I prefer to look at WoWY along with it though to eliminate the effect of teammates. Defensive GAR does something akin to a league wide WoWY so it can be an even better measure of defensive play but you run into complexity issues.

. This is not controversial. The best way to rate a player's defensive ability is still to watch them play.

Trying to evaluate a players defensive value by watching players is about as close to useless as it gets. The problem is that plays that keep the puck out of your net can happen anywhere any time and it's usually impossible to know that a goal was just prevented. Eg a nice pass in the offensive zone can prevent a change of possession and a goal going back the other way.

It was not long ago that most of the players lauded for their "defensive ability" actually played most of the game in their own zone and gave up all kinds of goals and chances as a result. After the advent of analytics these players have started to be weeded out, but there are still dinosaurs out there that haven't figured out that many of these "big defensive players" are a defensive liability.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Tampa
Ottawa
Buffalo
--------------
Toronto - misses the play-offs
Florida - misses the play-offs
Detroit
Montreal
Boston


I hate to say it, but Tampa
is still there at the top,
they have their own thing
and it works like a charm


Ottawa is the most improved team
coming off, off season, they are
super well built, they are young
with enough experience, they are ready!


Buffalo has their young guns finally graduated
and ready to fire from all 4 lines, defense
looks surprisingly good, only
concern is the goaltending, but the
old guy was so good last season,
he might play even play better this season


Florida+POM=disaster, 'nuff said


I have a gut feeling that Leafs
will miss out it this season, i think they
will loss all of their games versus Ottawa
Buffalo, Montreal and Boston and that will
hurt them in the wild card race.

Both Detroit and Montreal will improve, lots
but its so tight so, they'll have to wait more.

Boston with their oldest team in the NHL
will fall off the wagon, will finish dead last

What did I just read?

 

[Beezeral]

I said deeper top 6

Florida’s top 2 > Ottawa’s top 2
Ottawa’s 3-6 > Florida’s 3-6

Ok. Let’s see how you stack them up 1-12.

 

[JianYang]

There was a thread for this a while back but it was made way too early before Boston made their signings and got way off track. I made this thread exactly 1 year ago: Predict the Atlantic Standings and got all 4 playoff teams right. Way off on the non-playoff teams. Here’s my order:

1. Toronto-116 points: This isn’t the playoffs, time and time again the Leafs have shown they are a great regular season team. While the Matt Murray move looks real bad to me, Campbell was one of the worst goalies in the league (if not the worst) in the 2nd half and Mrazek was garbage, and they were still very good, so I see no concerns. They lost some minor pieces but of the big 4 in the Atlantic, they definitely lost the least.
2. Florida- 109 points: If I read 1 more time how much worse Florida will be due to losing Giroux and Chariot I will lose my mind. Florida was on a 120 point pace before trading for them in March. They finished with 116 points in 2021. The loss of Weegar, Duclair and Marchment will hurt, but this is still a very good regular season team that Vegas still has 4th in President’s Trophy odds (not that I see a repeat). I have no idea why the loss of Weegar, Duclair and Marchment are so backbreaking to cause Florida to lose 30 points and miss the playoffs like part of HF seems to think but neither myself or Vegas buys it. As is I have them down 13 points which is significant.
3. Tampa- 106 points: A team that’s never cared about positioning, with the loss of McDonagh and Palat along with major injuries to Cirelli and Bogosian, I have them firmly in 3rd. One of the more interesting moves of the summer was keeping Philippe Myers, who has looked bad for several years and who had a unique buyout that actually would have increased Tampa’s cap room this year. They chose to keep him and he looks slotted in a top 4 role. Diamond in the rough of rare slipup?

4. Boston-99 points (wildcard): I may have had Boston out of the playoffs if the didn’t bring back Bergeron and Krecji. An older team, significant injuries to Marchand and McAvoy will have the Bruins in a tough spot the 1st half. But bringing back 2 good players should give them enough leeway. I like Jim Montgomery but have no idea why Cassidy was fired and not Sweeney. I'd have done it the other way around.


5. Ottawa-89 points: For these non-playoff teams it gets tricky. I don’t really buy the Sens hype. Giroux is still very good, nice signing. Debrincat trade, what a fleece job. But this was a 70 point team last year. Sure they had a tough covid run but I just don’t see the 30 point improvement needed to make the playoffs. Please get Chabot some help back there.

6. Detroit- 88 points: Copp and Perron are nice players. They have some great young players. I like Husso. In the same vein as Ottawa though, I don’t think they’ve closed the gap enough on the top teams. Also I don’t know what Ben Chariot does to a MFer, Zito gave up so much and Yzerman gave an awful contract, both of these guys are good GMs but no idea why he’s being paid as a borderline top pairing guy/#3.

7. Buffalo-85 points: Buffalo was good in the second half. A lot of fun to watch. Tage Thompson and Tuch were great, Dahlin improved, Power looks like the real deal. I’m just not a fan of their goaltending. 6k doesn’t look ready to carry the load, Comrie was good but 15 starts last year isn’t enough and he hasn’t shown much in his career till then, and Craig Anderson is 800 years old.

8. Montreal-62 points: Kent Hughes has done a nice job (Monahan and a 1st, BEN CHARIOT FOR A 1ST, excuse the caps) and they have some nice young players but this is going to be a very bad year (or good, Bedard sweepstakes?). It’s a great year to tank but they’ll have some tough competition in Chicago, Arizona and Philly.

I see my rankings exactly the same way.

Tampa is the toughest to get a read on just becuase they have played so much hockey compared to everyone else over the last three years. I don't remember a team limping as much as tampa was last year in that final. Still, it's hard to put them any lower than 3rd.

Bergeron playing at a high level is the glue for keeping the bruins in the playoffs. I maintain the same stance I've had with Boston over the last couple years. I'll keep putting them in the playoffs until they show on the ice otherwise. They earned that benefit of the doubt over the last few years.

 

[Pavels Dog]

After the advent of analytics these players have started to be weeded out, but there are still dinosaurs out there that haven't figured out that many of these "big defensive players" are a defensive liability.

Dinosaurs like some of the most successful GMs in the league?

 

[Masked]

Right. The model is flawed. But it is still a model that is widely used by inteligent people in the hockey community.

Intelligent people don't use those silly player models because they are smart enough to know they're useless.

Assennayo

 

[lomiller1]

Dinosaurs like some of the most successful GMs in the league?

The smart ones are figuring it out and going for players who can make plays instead of so called "defensive" players who cost their team because they spend too much time in their own zone.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

The smart ones are figuring it out and going for players who can make plays instead of so called "defensive" players who cost their team because they spend too much time in their own zone.

And they use an eye test to do that...

It was not long ago that most of the players lauded for their "defensive ability" actually played most of the game in their own zone and gave up all kinds of goals and chances as a result.

Any evidence supporting this statement?

Very easy to say, unless called upon to defend it.

 

[Blowfish]

The smart ones are figuring it out and going for players who can make plays instead of so called "defensive" players who cost their team because they spend too much time in their own zone.

Leaf GM perfect example of that...right?

 

[Beezeral]

Leaf GM perfect example of that...right?

Or joe Sakic. Briesbois.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

The Leafs success will greatly depends on which goalie carries them to the cup? Murray or Samsonov.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The smart ones are figuring it out and going for players who can make plays instead of so called "defensive" players who cost their team because they spend too much time in their own zone.

Such as?

Didn't the most recent Cup winner stack their bottom six with additions o "defensive" players like Cogliano and Helm?

 

[bossram]

Such as?

Didn't the most recent Cup winner stack their bottom six with additions o "defensive" players like Cogliano and Helm?

Going by the more relevant statistics for defensive play, those guys were actually effective defensive players. They didn't drive much/any offense, but they kept opposition offense at bay fairly effectively in limited minutes.

The rest of Sakic's noteworthy pro acquisitons are basically a who's who of the Elite Analytics squad: Nichushkin, Toews, Lehkonen. Historically, Manson has had very strong defensive metrics (though not so much this year).

If there ever were a team to point at as a "success" of analytics, it really is this version of the Avs.

 

[bert]

Nylander is usually on the right but regardless… even Kerfoot outscored everyone on your list last year, at a lower cap hit than 3 of them.

You might want to check your math.

You actually think kerfoot is better than all those guys.? Leafs are clearly a much better team but come on. Other teams have young studs too just like when the leafs had their young players coming up. Alex Tuch is a force, Quinn is likely going to be a Calder finalist.

Toronto and Tampa are guaranteed playoff teams. The rest outside of Montreal finishing last could go any which way. When I look at Florida’s D core I can’t help but wonder how they’ll do. What if Ekblad gets hurt…. With all of Bostons injuries I think it’s a battle for them to get in. Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa are all gonna be better mostly through the virtue of their young talent getting a year older. It’s going to be a really tight division.

 

[bert]

Ok. Let’s see how you stack them up 1-12.

Sens third line is also really good actually. They are a young group with lots to prove but the talent is there.

Debrincat Stutzle Giroux
Tkachuk Norris Batherson
Formenton Pinto Joseph
Kelly Kastelic Watson
Gambrell Sokolov

The teams question is the D core it’s very inexperienced after Chabot and Zub. However if two of Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, Thomson and Brannstrom solidify themselves they should be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

 

[Beezeral]

Sens third line is also really good actually. They are a young group with lots to prove but the talent is there.

Debrincat Stutzle Giroux
Tkachuk Norris Batherson
Formenton Pinto Joseph
Kelly Kastelic Watson
Gambrell Sokolov

The teams question is the D core it’s very inexperienced after Chabot and Zub. However if two of Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, Thomson and Brannstrom solidify themselves they should be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

It's a fine top 9 to be sure. One of the best in the NHL? I don't think so. I also don't think their top 6 can match up with the Panthers even with the injury to Duclair. I have yet to see any sort of concrete argument from Sens fans showing how their top 6 is better.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Sens third line is also really good actually. They are a young group with lots to prove but the talent is there.

Debrincat Stutzle Giroux
Tkachuk Norris Batherson
Formenton Pinto Joseph
Kelly Kastelic Watson
Gambrell Sokolov

The teams question is the D core it’s very inexperienced after Chabot and Zub. However if two of Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, Thomson and Brannstrom solidify themselves they should be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Any word on if Batherson or Formenton might miss time do the the HC allegations?

 

[bert]

It's a fine top 9 to be sure. One of the best in the NHL? I don't think so. I also don't think their top 6 can match up with the Panthers even with the injury to Duclair. I have yet to see any sort of concrete argument from Sens fans showing how their top 6 is better.

Its one of the deepest forward groups in the league. Duclair wouldnt get a sniff in the sens top 6 and frankly I definitely prefer Formenton he is much harder to play against. We will see with Joseph. They dont have a Barkov that's true, but we will see where Stutzle ends up. Ill take either of the sens top two lines over Floridas 2nd. All in all they are two of the best forward groups in the league, they both have two good d men then alot of questions after that. I definitely think Florida is the better team right now but Ottawas group has more room for improvement. I think the division in general will be really tight with the exception of Montreal.

Any word on if Batherson or Formenton might miss time do the the HC allegations?

We all know the same information. I am not going to assume one way or another until the investigation is completed. If they lose either it will be a big blow there is no denying it. If they lose both they wont be a playoff team. Batherson is debatably the best player on the team and Formenton is severely underrated. He almost scored 20 with next to no pp time last year. If he could finish at all he would have had 30, one of the best pkers in the league.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Going by the more relevant statistics for defensive play, those guys were actually effective defensive players. They didn't drive much/any offense, but they kept opposition offense at bay fairly effectively in limited minutes.

The rest of Sakic's noteworthy pro acquisitons are basically a who's who of the Elite Analytics squad: Nichushkin, Toews, Lehkonen. Historically, Manson has had very strong defensive metrics (though not so much this year).

If there ever were a team to point at as a "success" of analytics, it really is this version of the Avs.

But isn't that contrary to what the other person was saying? Guys like Helm and Cogliano are the type of "defensive forwards" that dinosaur GMs love even if they're not actually good at generating offense/puck possession outside of their own zone. Their lack of any sort of offensive driving contributions seems to run counter to what that person is saying since those are the type of "defense only" players that coaches and GMs always seem to love.

And Manson is further proof based on his last couple of seasons of analytics. At one time he was an analytics darling, but he hasn't been that the last little bit. Instead, he's more of a "eye test monster" who GMs love due to his physicality and perceived defensive ability, despite the analytics saying otherwise. Yet he was a prime target for Sakic.

I'm not saying none of Sakic's moves were analytics driven, I'm just saying that the guys I mentioned above seem to fall more into that "old school dinosaur GM" approach to why they were acquired rather than because they had stellar analytics.

 

[Beezeral]

Duclair wouldnt get a sniff in the sens top 6

we being serious now? Guy is coming off a 31 goal 58 point season but can't sniff the top 6 of the senators. That makes all the sense in the world...

I definitely prefer Formenton he is much harder to play against.

What makes him harder to play against other than inferior analytics and substantially worse counting stats?

They dont have a Barkov that's true, but we will see where Stutzle ends up.

They don't have a barkov, they don't have a Matthew Tkachuk, and Stutzle should be compared getting comparions to Lundell, not two of the better players in the NHL. Waving your hand and saying "let's see where Stutzle ends up" in comparison to one of the top 10-15 best players in the league is beyond silly.

The Panthers 3rd best forward, Sam Reinhart, compares favorably to whoever you want to say is Ottawa's best forward. You can make a legitimate argument that ranking both teams has the Panthers 1-3 at the top. 1 and 2 aren't even debatable.

Ill take either of the sens top two lines over Floridas 2nd.

saying a top line is better than florida's 2nd is a really bad argument and the analytics don't support your argument that the Senators 2nd line is better than the Panthers projected 2nd line.

All in all they are two of the best forward groups in the league, they both have two good d men then alot of questions after that. I definitely think Florida is the better team right now but Ottawas group has more room for improvement.

Ottawa is the magical "potential" Panthers have established themselves as one of if not the best offense in the NHL. The Panthers went through a restructuring this offseason so we will see how they end up, but once again, it's a bit silly to say that a 113 goal gap was made up with the additions of Giroux and Debrincat and "improvement"

 

[Masked]

we being serious now? Guy is coming off a 31 goal 58 point season but can't sniff the top 6 of the senators. That makes all the sense in the world...

Whose spot would he take - Tkachuk, Batherson, Giroux or DeBrincat?

assennayo

 

[sabremike]

A reminder that only one team in the division has an a deity:

 

[bert]

we being serious now? Guy is coming off a 31 goal 58 point season but can't sniff the top 6 of the senators. That makes all the sense in the world...

What makes him harder to play against other than inferior analytics and substantially worse counting stats?


They don't have a barkov, they don't have a Matthew Tkachuk, and Stutzle should be compared getting comparions to Lundell, not two of the better players in the NHL. Waving your hand and saying "let's see where Stutzle ends up" in comparison to one of the top 10-15 best players in the league is beyond silly.

The Panthers 3rd best forward, Sam Reinhart, compares favorably to whoever you want to say is Ottawa's best forward. You can make a legitimate argument that ranking both teams has the Panthers 1-3 at the top. 1 and 2 aren't even debatable.


saying a top line is better than florida's 2nd is a really bad argument and the analytics don't support your argument that the Senators 2nd line is better than the Panthers projected 2nd line.


Ottawa is the magical "potential" Panthers have established themselves as one of if not the best offense in the NHL. The Panthers went through a restructuring this offseason so we will see how they end up, but once again, it's a bit silly to say that a 113 goal gap was made up with the additions of Giroux and Debrincat and "improvement"

Florida got substantially worse in the offseason, Ottawa got substantially better if you cant recognize these two things fine by me. I literally said Florida is a better team. But for someone like you thats not good enough I guess. Have fun with Del Zotto in your top 4.... He literally couldnt play on the sens they bought him out. Florida took all of the players that couldnt stay in the sens lineup. What does that tell you exactly....

Formenton is harder to play against because he is physical and competes harder on pucks and gets in shooting lanes better. He was also an NHL rookie.... Are you capable of watching a game or just spouting off about last years analytics? New season and Florida as a whole wont be propped up like they were last season from an analytics perspective.

Yes im serious Duclainr isnt as good as anyone in their top 6 you know the sens had him right.... If you think he is better than Batherson, Tkachuk, Norris, Stutzle, Debrincat or Giroux thats fine with me but you're wrong. You obviously cant look at this objectively. Looking forward to the games this year maybe you will be able to watch more than one team....