Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Gurglesons]

The individual stats in a given year with Jarry are largely irrelevant.

It's the pattern. A .20 point drop in save percentage from Oct.-Dec. to Jan.-April year after year is alarming, regardless of what the original save percentage is and the final save percentage is. It doesn't even matter what the league percentage is.

The collective data, year after year, shows Jarry coming up short the second half of the year, as @Gurglesons displayed.

Doesn't matter if it's save percentage, goals against, expected goals against, GSAx, or any other stat. This is about the trend, not individual data points.

If Deserted and I agree it immediately has to be true.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The individual stats in a given year with Jarry are largely irrelevant.

It's the pattern. A .20 point drop in save percentage from Oct.-Dec. to Jan.-April year after year is alarming, regardless of what the original save percentage is and the final save percentage is. It doesn't even matter what the league percentage is.

The collective data, year after year, shows Jarry coming up short the second half of the year, as @Gurglesons displayed.

Doesn't matter if it's save percentage, goals against, expected goals against, GSAx, or any other stat. This is about the trend, not individual data points.

Everyone acknowledges that trend. But what matters is the year end overall average result, not the stretch. Their job is to stop as many pucks as they can from games 1-82.
The fans care more after January. You do. Gurgs does. The board does. The standings don't.

That trend you're referring to is only damning if it drags him down to the point where his whole body of work is unacceptable. That's not what happened this year.
His work through the first half+ was enough to outweigh that.

There's nothing irrelevant about seasonal average output. That's completely irrational.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Why is everyone down on Rust?

Rust is overhyped here, but he's exactly the kind of player you need to move in order for Dubas do to what he claims. He's fairly paid on a decent contract with lots of rep league wide and about to start the downswing of his career. Who else are we going to trade to get value? Or did he mean just making some more "Ruhwedel for a conditional pick 3 years from now" trades?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Why is everyone down on Rust?

Feelings over facts has always been a priority here. Always.
Rust was one of our best players this year. Better than Malkin when available.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Feelings over facts has always been a priority here. Always.
Rust was one of our best players this year. Better than Malkin when available.

It has nothing to do with feelings-- who else are we trading to get value? Smith? Eller?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Rust is overhyped here, but he's exactly the kind of player you need to move in order for Dubas do to what he claims. He's fairly paid on a decent contract with lots of rep league wide and about to start the downswing of his career. Who else are we going to trade to get value? Or did he mean just making some more "Ruhwedel for a conditional pick 3 years from now" trades?

He's more trashed than hyped up here these days. He deserved more love for this last season.
The argument could be made that he's unlikely to do it again, sure, but we can't say he didn't bring it.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The GM/PoHO claims he's going to start this youth movement, but I'm just skeptically asking "how"? How do you get these young players we don't have and these picks we also don't have?

He's more trashed than hyped up here these days. He deserved more love for this last season.
The argument could be made that he's unlikely to do it again, sure, but we can't say he didn't bring it.

What exactly did he bring that put us over the top? He had a fine season, but if you want to get something back that isn't a conditional pick years from now or another nothingburger for our trash, who do you trade? Jarry? EK?

It's a very simple question. If we are getting younger and getting more prospects like the dipshit in charge says we are, how exactly are we doing that without trading players like Rust?

 

[HandshakeLine]

I'm open to suggestions, but I don't think there's a way you can do it, and that is more the issue than keeping Rust or not. (The time to trade Rust was like 3 seasons ago). People are buying into Dubas saying the right thing but I don't see how he can follow through on that promise.

Again, if we buy into the idea that the core untouchables are: Rust, Malkin, Sid, Letang-- who else can actually bring a real return?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

It has nothing to do with feelings-- who else are we trading to get value? Smith? Eller?

I wouldn't trade Smith. He squeezed out 40 points in a down year, in a PP2 role. He's got high hockey IQ, and he defends very well. Use him with Crosby this time for most of the year and I'm confident the results will get better. Higher goal count. Higher shooting percentage. He's gonna be more comfortable in year 2 here, not upset anymore over leaving Vegas. His career average production is strong. The likelihood of a bounceback is legit. Patience here, imo.
Plus I would use him as a top minute PK'er this time too. He was the #1 stingiest guy on the unit, but only got a third of the min/pg of the Forward leaders. He's a 90+ percentile PK'er. Possibly our best one. We're wasting him there. Rust out and him in on the unit, if I was coach. Rust's rates are garbage on the PK the last 2 years.

Rakell is the 5mil winger I take issue with. He's lost his PP1 efficacy, can't PK and is far worse defensively than Smith at 5v5. The even-strength offense was barely passable for a top 6 with that deployment. For as much as we trashed Smith this year, Rakell brought less to the team than he did.
The only thing that gives me pause with Rakell is that he FINALLY found a winger who helps him function with Malkin (Bunting). Sullivan wants to use Rakell with Malkin going forward.
So there's the potential that that's a very good line, but we're guessing off a small sample size. But if you're saying someone has to go, he's the one for me.

And a big no to trading Eller too. He definitely played up to his cap hit with that harsh deployment. Sullivan is gonna continue using 3Cs as defensive slaves, and Eller proved he can do it. Still got 15g, 16a, 31p under difficult circumstances. No top-six minutes all season.
We're very unlikely to get better spending that 2.45M on someone else, unless ofc Eller drops off.

 

[HandshakeLine]

So basically, there is no trade realistically to make and the GM is bullshitting about getting younger.

God this era of the Pens sucks so much, lol.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

It's a very simple question. If we are getting younger and getting more prospects like the dipshit in charge says we are, how exactly are we doing that without trading players like Rust?

I would deal Pettersson right now for futures. He has strong value after a career season and he's at a great cap hit at a young age. Waiting until the deadline will only diminish the return, and he may play much worse and diminish it even more. Him staying here won't change the fact that we'll either playoff miss or lose to a giant in R1. He has no purpose here. And we 100% should not give him a lucrative long term extension in this team's sinking ship situation.
Trading EK at 50% is absolutely something I'd be down for too. You can get something good for that. Sure, he'd be on the books for 3 years, but the Pens will not win a playoff series in that 3 years, whether he stays or goes. So I'm not worried about it at all.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Pettersson would be the only other potential value-having trade on the roster, so I guess if we’re not trading any of the forwards with value, we might as well hope we move our one blueliner who can garner a return.

But I remain skeptical that we will do any major moves at all.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Pettersson would be the only other potential value-having trade on the roster, so I guess if we’re not trading any of the forwards with value, we might as well hope we move our one blueliner who can garner a return.

But I remain skeptical that we will do any major moves at all.

Can trade Smith at the deadline. Smart to boost his value playing with Crosby and potentially PP1 first.
Bunting would be good too. He'll have the year left on the deal at a good cap hit and age.

And you'd definitely get a good return for Karlsson at 50% for 3 years.

The moves I'm suggesting entail properly discarding this year though, and they're unwilling to do that. This ownership group are cowards. They're unwilling to do what's necessary.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah, in the end, that’s the hard reality of the situation. We have a range of options but they’re all unpalatable for some reason to ownership and management.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Fingers crossed this switch to a youth movement means untouchable golden child Rust is actually available, and despite being the only half-decent blueliner defensively, Petts is also made available.

Otherwise, like HSL said, just doesn't seem feasible, and more of the same "say one thing, do another" stuff we've been getting fed from the org for years.

 

[K Fleur]

I’m most excited that we signed Jarry to a short prove it deal and now he’s a UFA.


Oh.

 

[chethejet]

Hextall set up the franchise for a 3 year run if looking at the contracts that were frontloaded and Rust loses NMC after this year. Dubas can make a couple smart moves here to give the roster needed size grit ect. But I do think signing Sid will be at least 2 years and that will change the Dynamic of trading players. Yes Ido think Dubas knows adding talent to the system is critical to be able to develop younger talent as needed the next number of years. Rust will be moved and my guess is Karlsson will be traded for a great package with a very good year. That gives Dubas his prospect/draft picks. I would have preferred a pick this year in the top 10 but next year should be good if the above trades happen.

 

[Andy99]

Everyone acknowledges that trend. But what matters is the year end overall average result, not the stretch. Their job is to stop as many pucks as they can from games 1-82.
The fans care more after January. You do. Gurgs does. The board does. The standings don't.

That trend you're referring to is only damning if it drags him down to the point where his whole body of work is unacceptable. That's not what happened this year.
His work through the first half+ was enough to outweigh that.

There's nothing irrelevant about seasonal average output. That's completely irrational.

Couldn’t disagree more with this…the overall stats are relatively irrelevant…the issue is what he’s doing to help win games…and the answer is not enough…he often gives up backbreaking goals at the end of games, more than he makes those saves…he contributes to the blown leads we’ve seen and nearly lead the league in…and when you need Jarry the last two months during the playoff push, he doesn’t do enough

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Couldn’t disagree more with this…the overall stats are relatively irrelevant…the issue is what he’s doing to help win games…and the answer is not enough…he often gives up backbreaking goals at the end of games, more than he makes those saves…he contributes to the blown leads we’ve seen and nearly lead the league in…and when you need Jarry the last two months during the playoff push, he doesn’t do enough

He didn't get enough support from teammates to win games this year. He got less than Ned.
I'm not really a big believer in looking at timing of goals against. I care about GA totals. His job is to allow as few as possible over a full game.
If he chokes away a 2-1 lead with 1 minute left, that doesn't bother me, because he only allowed 2 total. He did his job, and it's on the offense for not supporting him with more than 2 goals of their own.

I agree with you that he's not clutch, but the team shouldn't be so weak as to demand so much from him to win games either.

You're also not giving him credit for the good work he does earlier in the game. How many breakaways did he save this year? How many times were the Pens in a better position than they deserve, because of his strong play?

There was a lot of good work from him in that first half+. The board was super quiet about him for a long time, and they're always itching to light him up. It took a long time to give the haters ammo.

 

[BusinessGoose]

The issue with averages is...

You can have five shutouts (which don't actually help the team win unless it's all 1-0 games), then have five games where you let in at least 4 goals, losing every one cause your team don't get 5+ per.

Your GAA is respectable 2.0 and yet you are barely a .500 team.

It's the same with our forwards. Such as the mighty jake. He might get 80 pts... But if he gets 3 in a 6-2 blowout, then nothing for 3 games... He's still on track for a Point Per Game... But he's not helping you win.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

Why is everyone down on Rust?

It weakens metal

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The issue with averages is...

You can have five shutouts (which don't actually help the team win unless it's all 1-0 games), then have five games where you let in at least 4 goals, losing every one cause your team don't get 5+ per.

Your GAA is respectable 2.0 and yet you are barely a .500 team.

It's the same with our forwards. Such as the mighty jake. He might get 80 pts... But if he gets 3 in a 6-2 blowout, then nothing for 3 games... He's still on track for a Point Per Game... But he's not helping you win.

In small sample sizes, that's fair. In large ones it balances itself out. Jarry played 51 games.
At some point it's on the offense to support their goalie, not have a 30th ranked PP and 31st ranked finishing. We can't just give them a pass and ignore how that affects Jarry's record.

Ned happened to get much better goal support this year.

No stat is foolproof, but over the course of a full season I'll take averages over streaks every time.

 

[Gurglesons]

In small sample sizes, that's fair. In large ones it balances itself out. Jarry played 51 games.
At some point it's on the offense to support their goalie, not have a 30th ranked PP and 31st ranked finishing. We can't just give them a pass and ignore how that affects Jarry's record.

Ned happened to get much better goal support this year.

I think you just have a very different view of how this team functions and how goaltending works.

 

[BusinessGoose]

In small sample sizes, that's fair. In large ones it balances itself out. Jarry played 51 games.
At some point it's on the offense to support their goalie, not have a 30th ranked PP and 31st ranked finishing. We can't just give them a pass and ignore how that affects Jarry's record.

Ned happened to get much better goal support this year.

Large sample sizes like 5 years of late season stat dips?

The team is flawed, no doubt.

I'm just sick of paying 5mil to a dude who is inconsequential to success, instead of putting that towards a guy who doesn't chest snipe.

I can't fathom the set of circumstances that will have to transpire for me to ever bang the drum of tristan jarry.

 

[Andy99]

In small sample sizes, that's fair. In large ones it balances itself out. Jarry played 51 games.
At some point it's on the offense to support their goalie, not have a 30th ranked PP and 31st ranked finishing. We can't just give them a pass and ignore how that affects Jarry's record.

Ned happened to get much better goal support this year.

No stat is foolproof, but over the course of a full season I'll take averages over streaks every time.

Let’s say you’re right…Is it just random coincidence that the players play worse in front of Jarry? Lack of confidence in him may be a real thing in play…should that not factor in to the decision of what to do with Jarry?