Prospect Info: Caps Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024-25

[Random schmoe]

Different NHLe model, this is from the Byron Bader one, but..

From the 2010-2020 drafts, the Caps made 55 total picks.

27 of those picks fell into Bader's "Group 5", which are players that "make the NHL ~15% of the time; turn into a star ~0.5% of the time; make up ~50% of skaters drafted"

Of those 27, 10 have subsequently been categorized as busts.

Of those 27, 11 are still categorized as "Developing". I have major issues with this category, as it includes Beck Malenstyn and AJF, but also Sebastian Walfridsson and Dmitriy Zaitsev. (Major props and bonus points to anyone who remembers Sebastian without looking him up. I didn't. He was our 5th round pick, #151 overall, in 2017.)

But most relevant to the point I'm going to make,
Of those 27, the remaining 6, each of whom are categorized as 'NHLers' are:
Protas the Elder
Burakovsky
Vrana
Siegenthaler
Fehervary
Wilson

'NHLers' is also the category that Travis Boyd, Connor Carrick, and Zach Sanford are in. Which, I mean, I guess is technically accurate. Wilson, Fever, and Carrick all became "NHLers". Just vastly different quality of NHLer. (The only Caps picks from that time frame that have become what Bader considers 'Stars' are Kuznetsov and Forsberg.)

So .. I don't put a lot of stock into NHL equivalency analyses.

(Embedded image, the group 5 list runs beyond the bottom of what I could capture in a single snip. For anyone curious the other names in that group are Sutter, Walfridsson and Geisser. Blues are stars, Greens are NHLers, Reds and Busts, and Grays are Developing.)

 

[wickedwitch]

NHLe is a tool that can be used properly or abused. It does not, for example, consider defensive play at all. I also think it doesn't do a great job adjusting to league strength changes. So any good analysis should take these things into consideration.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

He had a mean streak.

SDR = Truculence.

Remember even during the rookie camp he was stirring things up.

Can't believe that he's turning 35 in a few weeks, time's not marching on it's rocketing.

Suppose the highlight of his career was playing in the WJC for Canada.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't know that it's that bad. I'll caveat this with noting that every player won't make it, obviously, but if you lay out a super rough outline (including young players or signed long-term with prospects sprinkled in), a 28-29 (4 seasons from now) lineup could look something like:

A. Protas - PLD - Wilson
Cristall - McMichael - Leonard
Miroshnichenko - I. Protas - Parascak
Mateiko - Rybinski - Trineyev
Lapierre, Funk, Sikora, Thomas

Hutson - Roy
Sandin - Iorio
Fehervary - Chesley
Allen, Muggli, Lemay(!)

There's enough extras there that there are obviously guys who could move, but it's not like there's so many prospects that guys are going to be 'blocked'. Having said that, the competition in Hershey for playing time is going to be very fierce the next few seasons.

When does idea of CMM becoming a good NHL center much less a good 2C, when does it end? They tried him again recently….shut that down again quickly.

This is quoted, but I would bet the lineup in no way includes that many youngsters in prime spots much less all in the starting lineup together in 4 years. I mean you basically posted the entire farm system lol…. There will be some scattered free agents and acquisitions in the lineup by then, of that I have no doubt.


We could definitely make smart moves from areas of depth and I think that’s what’s being suggested.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

(I'm thinking about my next poll vote.)

For those who watch Hershey on a regular basis and have for years...

Tell me why Iorio won't end up as another Lucas Johansen?

Meaning, a "Just A Guy" type, good enough to be good in the AHL, but not good enough to play NHL minutes on a good team. Or even an Alexeyev - someone we wouldn't lose any sleep over if they were gone from the org. (I actually believe AA is good enough to play bottom pairing minutes if given a consistent chance. Every time I've seen him play consistently, he's improved steadily.)

Let me state clearly for the record that this is almost entirely emotional, and I "get it". I have some major feelings that I can't shake of 'If this guy is all that good why isn't he in the NHL?'

There is some 'prospect fatigue' here, in that, just a feeling, I've been hearing his name, seeing him in prospect lists for so long now, that I start to wonder if he is actually good enough to play regular minutes in the NHL.

I don't know... I just can't shake a feeling that Vinny won't ever be a "core", even regular bottom pairing, piece of a good NHL team.

And yes, I know we like to talk about 'overcooking' our D prospects. But we don't really overcook the ones who are regular NHL caliber. Siegenthaler and Fehervary, for example, were playing regular NHL minutes by the age of 22, where Iorio is now.

Below is the number of AHL games some of our recent "top" d prospects have played, along with the number of seasons that they were played across. Simple point being the 2 guys who ended up good DIDN'T play all that long in Hershey. And for the record, I know that Fever and Siegs spent some of their "development" years playing in top Swedish and Swiss, respectively, leagues, making this a bit of an apples to oranges comparison.

*Siegs: 116 games, 3 seasons
*Fever: 80 games, 2 seasons
Alexeyev: 142 games, 4 seasons
Vinny: 164 games, 3 seasons
Lujo: 257 games, 7 seasons

LuJo and AA were both steady, similarly qualified, top performing defensemen in Hershey. Lujo dealt with major injuries in his age 22 and 23 seasons that probably 'stunted' his development. But when he returned in the 2021-22 season, mostly injury-free, he was thought of (by some) as the best defensive d-man on the Bears and also good enough offensively to be on the 2nd PP unit.


(As an aside... going back and reading top prospect poll discussions from 2019 is funny.)

I can’t answer your question, as I think some more regular Hershey watchers have more informed opinions on Iorio this year, but you really nailed it on Lujo.

His injuries hit right when he should have been pushing for his first real NHL tastes, but it altered what was probably only a best case scenario career 5-7 NHL defender, to an 8/9, forever stuck in the AHL as a tweener path. Hard to know what would have happened had he not been damaged. I was never all that enamored with his skillset much from him as a draftee other than skating if I recall properly.

It’s exactly why I would consider including Iorio in a deal. He’s probably at best the nacho guy in DC next season if he’s not waivers exempt.

 

[Kazer]

When does idea of CMM becoming a good NHL center much less a good 2C, when does it end? They tried him again recently….shut that down again quickly.

This is quoted, but I would bet the lineup in no way includes that many youngsters in prime spots much less all in the starting lineup together in 4 years. I mean you basically posted the entire farm system lol…. There will be some scattered free agents and acquisitions in the lineup by then, of that I have no doubt.


We could definitely make smart moves from areas of depth and I think that’s what’s being suggested.

My point was mostly that there are spots, so we shouldn't trade guys out of 'there won't be room'. And yeah, the fact that the lineup I posted includes Parascak/Miro on the 3rd line but McM at 2nd line center shows how weak our center depth is compared to the wings (although I considered flipping Protas the younger to 2C but he'll still be quite young in 28-29). To be fair to myself, I did caveat that lineup with a note that not everyone will hit their potential, obviously.

Completely agree with your other point on Iorio, though. He's easy trade bait if someone wants him especially with Chesley and Allen not too far behind (assuming Chesley signs of course). Having said that, I do think he'd be in the NHL as a bottom pair D on most teams (Caps are just stacked with Carly/Roy/TvR ahead of him). The problem is I don't see him ever being more than a #5/#6.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

My point was mostly that there are spots, so we shouldn't trade guys out of 'there won't be room'. And yeah, the fact that the lineup I posted includes Parascak/Miro on the 3rd line but McM at 2nd line center shows how weak our center depth is compared to the wings (although I considered flipping Protas the younger to 2C but he'll still be quite young in 28-29). To be fair to myself, I did caveat that lineup with a note that not everyone will hit their potential, obviously.

Completely agree with your other point on Iorio, though. He's easy trade bait if someone wants him especially with Chesley and Allen not too far behind (assuming Chesley signs of course). Having said that, I do think he'd be in the NHL as a bottom pair D on most teams (Caps are just stacked with Carly/Roy/TvR ahead of him). The problem is I don't see him ever being more than a #5/#6.

A better experiment would be to look at how many forwards and D on the roster today were otherwise acquired outside of the draft (free agents, trades) and let’s say that equaled by my quick count (6 of 12 forwards) and 4 out of 6 starting D, then fill those imaginary players in their slots in 4 years and then see how many spots are left for all these bodies we have.

 

[Holtbyisms]

A better experiment would be to look at how many forwards and D on the roster today were otherwise acquired outside of the draft (free agents, trades) and let’s say that equaled by my quick count (6 of 12 forwards) and 4 out of 6 starting D, then fill those imaginary players in their slots in 4 years and then see how many spots are left for all these bodies we have.

Post 8 I'd expect that ratio to change drastically, not sure that's a great test either.

 

[Kazer]

A better experiment would be to look at how many forwards and D on the roster today were otherwise acquired outside of the draft (free agents, trades) and let’s say that equaled by my quick count (6 of 12 forwards) and 4 out of 6 starting D, then fill those imaginary players in their slots in 4 years and then see how many spots are left for all these bodies we have.

Our current mix is pretty low mostly because of horrendous drafting from 2015-20 (with 2019 as an obvious exception). So, to get a better example, I looked at 2015-16 since that roster was largely a result of (mostly) good drafting from 2004 - 2011.

Amongst the 18 most commonly used skaters, you had Kuzy, Williams, Chimera, Niskanen, Orlov, Wilson, Alzner, Oshie, Ovi, Bura, Backstrom, Johansson, Schmidt, Laich, Beagle, Carlson, Chorney and Latta.

Of that group, 11 of those skaters were draft picks by Washington. Note that Beagle and Schmidt are interesting since they were UDFA signings so they were almost 'free' draft picks, so to speak. In any event, my mix above had 14 drafted players (plus Rybinski UDFA would push to 15) so even if you take that group to 13 (adding Beagle and Schmidt UDFAs) it's definitely a touch too prospect heavy. But not by as much as you might think.

One key job of BM/GMCP, now that we have rebuilt the farm system, will be to identify the players who have to be kept around and the ones who can be made expendable at the right price.

 

[DWGie26]

A lot to respond here but a couple of thoughts:

1. Iorio - I watch and follow the Bears and have done so for years. Not as much as our resident posters like @Strawberry Fields. But there are the elites, the average/masses, and the progressing. Iorio has progressed but still part of the masses. I’m not sure he cracks our lineup but he is good and other teams may find more value in him. he could be a trade chip.

2. Winning a cup means having a balance of veteran guys and cap controlled youth with upside. You need both which is why ALL of those prospects won’t play for the Caps. Some will have to be trade assets. Iorio may be a bit late. But Mateiko and Parasack while difficult to give up are valuable trade pieces for a team that wants to win in the next couple of years

3. The untouchables list is short to me. Leonard, Protas, Hutson. Everyone else on the table to improve this year and next for the OV window. Chesley, Iorio, McMichael, Miro, and Frank are all players who could have value in a trade and you have to give to get. the Rybinski, Trineyev, Sutter, etc don’t have much value in a trade. They either stay in the system or they get claimed or sign elsewhere which sucks but is fine.

In short they are all assets. Some for trade value, some for Caps value, and some for Hershey value. But this is a year to use those assets to prepare for a run over two years. use them!

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I think it's pretty fair to say Vinny tops out at bottom pair potential. I like him but he doesn't tend to be particularly noticeable one way or another, even at the AHL level. That's not a bad thing for a defenseman, but it doesn't lend well to any sort of high end potential (not that I think anyone here believed he had such potential). I guess "steady" would be my best descriptor for him.

 

[hb13xchamps]

Add me into the “not that high on Iorio” category. He has grown on me and has gotten better each year. I just don’t see much of a ceiling with him. Very minimal offense, although that has improved a bit every year. The biggest thing that scares me is the beating he’d take at the NHL level. He just looks fragile and skinny when he plays (not Djoos level skinny though).

I guess you could say’s he’s more of a defensive dman who can transition through the neutral zone by carrying the puck or via a decent breakout pass. LuJo was a better player through his entire tenure in Hershey IMO but his development was altered by shitty, injury prone genetics

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Our current mix is pretty low mostly because of horrendous drafting from 2015-20 (with 2019 as an obvious exception). So, to get a better example, I looked at 2015-16 since that roster was largely a result of (mostly) good drafting from 2004 - 2011.

Amongst the 18 most commonly used skaters, you had Kuzy, Williams, Chimera, Niskanen, Orlov, Wilson, Alzner, Oshie, Ovi, Bura, Backstrom, Johansson, Schmidt, Laich, Beagle, Carlson, Chorney and Latta.

Of that group, 11 of those skaters were draft picks by Washington. Note that Beagle and Schmidt are interesting since they were UDFA signings so they were almost 'free' draft picks, so to speak. In any event, my mix above had 14 drafted players (plus Rybinski UDFA would push to 15) so even if you take that group to 13 (adding Beagle and Schmidt UDFAs) it's definitely a touch too prospect heavy. But not by as much as you might think.

One key job of BM/GMCP, now that we have rebuilt the farm system, will be to identify the players who have to be kept around and the ones who can be made expendable at the right price.

So again….8 out of 18 almost half were from outside the organization (not drafted). Not all that far off of today.

Do that experiment with those numbers and the crunch of prospects you previously listed and it’s clear there is not enough room here if they all pan out as NHLers.


They can make a deft trade or two to bolster this team for 2 more playoff runs, and not gut the farm system.

 

[Roshi]

Obviously the people who follow Hershey will have the best view of where Iorio is, and where he could be in the future. But for me, just reading out his profile and developement since we drafted him, I get some strong TvR vibes from Iorio.

Most nights you dont even remember he was there. But he was there every game, just playing solid system hockey and helping his team close a win.

Propably will never be more than a 5-6D, but could very well end up being a very good 5-6D.