Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[EspenK]

...If Laine is the best player in your 1st line, arguably by far, your first line is not very good. No dig at Laine or people he played with last season, but I don't think Laine is at a level where he should be the best player in your 1st line, or if he is, it needs to be really close and the players must compliment each other well.

C'mon Johnny tell Laine how wonderful he is...

 

[VT]

Might have something to do with the averaging over 3 seasons, I think he played better last season overall, but his numbers would've been brought down heavily by that 19-20 season. Also he had worse linemates, IMO he was pretty impressive last season taking into account his usage and linemates. If Laine is the best player in your 1st line, arguably by far, your first line is not very good. No dig at Laine or people he played with last season, but I don't think Laine is at a level where he should be the best player in your 1st line, or if he is, it needs to be really close and the players must compliment each other well. Now, while those charts still take 19-20 into account, it's impact must be far less and this season he has had the benefit of playing with Gaudreau a lot.

But he hasn't played that many games with Gaudreau for it to affect the stats too much, besides he had the best chemistry with Chinakhov and Nyquist. You also forget about his injuries, the consequences of which each organism accepts differently. That's why about 64% in the last season.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

While we probably know Laine's ceiling by now, and it'll only get incrementally better, he does seem to actually try to improve year-on-year. Maybe it's not as noticeable as with some top players, but I feel like I see it in his play.

Moreover he's aware of at least some of his traits:

"I've kind of tried to change that mentality from earlier years, so when it's not going in you just gotta shoot more and just might need one lucky bounce and then you'll get a few."

I feel like we've seen him shoot a lot more this year, I think it was a complaint last year that he didn't shoot as often as we would've liked. He's improved on that - next he should get his aim back/recalibrated...

Edit: While I still have the last post... That Laine forecheck with 5:00 to go in the Sharks game on Jan 21, that was a pretty good effort that resulted in some prime real estate for Gaudreau who fanned on his shot. Laine has been doing the forechecking a little better this year I think. Just needs to be more consistent throughout, I think he's played pretty well over the last 10 games but admittedly there are still stretches where he disappears a bit - and of course those bloody offensive blue line turnovers.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

 

[cbjthrowaway]

he was also really good last year (imo) but most of these use a three-year sample so the weird trade/torts/covid year has weighed down his numbers in most of these models.

 

[Halberdier]

I don't know any other point in Laine's career that he has been basically the best on the team on not only GF% rates (which is not new), but also on relative CF, CA, CF%, FF, FA, FF%, SF, SA, SF%, GF & GA. (5-on-5, this season)

On couple of those he was "only" TOP-2 for the team, but on all the rest I think he was TOP-1 when I checked before the Oilers game from Natural Stat Trick. The irony is, that his excellent Corsi & corsi-type stats are partially due to the fact that he and often his linemates like Johnny or Roslovic have not been able to score on so many excellent scoring chances, which often means they will get another corsi event or two on the same offensive zone time, whereas had they scored on the first grade A chance, their Corsi would be worse while their GF% would be better.

I guess I used like 300 minute TOI cut to not include those with limited sample size, but I don't think the picture was that much different even if you don't filter out any CBJ for this season.

Laine used to ride high GF% often with negative CF%. His scoring touch is a bit off right now, but otherwise his hockey is right now pretty complete, both ends, with still the notable problem being defensive zone defensive play if the opponent is able to keep the puck long on the zone. Laine is pretty good at saving those odd man rushes by opponent, but not that great when the situation gets kind of static on defensive zone.

 

[stevo61]

I don't know any other point in Laine's career that he has been basically the best on the team on not only GF% rates (which is not new), but also on relative CF, CA, CF%, FF, FA, FF%, SF, SA, SF%, GF & GA. (5-on-5, this season)

On couple of those he was "only" TOP-2 for the team, but on all the rest I think he was TOP-1 when I checked before the Oilers game from Natural Stat Trick. The irony is, that his excellent Corsi & corsi-type stats are partially due to the fact that he and often his linemates like Johnny or Roslovic have not been able to score on so many excellent scoring chances, which often means they will get another corsi event or two on the same offensive zone time, whereas had they scored on the first grade A chance, their Corsi would be worse while their GF% would be better.

I guess I used like 300 minute TOI cut to not include those with limited sample size, but I don't think the picture was that much different even if you don't filter out any CBJ for this season.

Laine used to ride high GF% often with negative CF%. His scoring touch is a bit off right now, but otherwise his hockey is right now pretty complete, both ends, with still the notable problem being defensive zone defensive play if the opponent is able to keep the puck long on the zone. Laine is pretty good at saving those odd man rushes by opponent, but not that great when the situation gets kind of static on defensive zone.

Id say his notable problem is the inability to keep things simple or over handle the puck. Im sure he has coaches pulling out their hair when even at the end of a shift he struggles to just keep it simple and get pucks deep. He tries to maintain control while his teammates are headed off the ice.
His defensive zone play isnt the best but hes atleast shown some progression.

 

[Xoggz22]

My guess is the front office feels Jiricek will in the short term , with Svozil and Cuelemans possibly ready to compete next yr as well

The only added young defenseman you'll see on this team next year is Jiricek. Svozil will go through the AHL and I hope Cuelemans stays one more year in college with a real coach/system. If he does go pro he'll play in the AHL and have a steep learning curve. Neither player is close to NHL ready.

CBJ is going to need to add a veteran on the back end if Gavrikov (when) is traded. They simply can't go with a mix of Z, Bean (both returning from major injuries), Peeke, Boqvist, Blankenburg, Jiricek and Gudbranson. That remains an extremely inexperienced group with only Z earning top 4 status.

I would not be surprised to see Peeke moved in the off season with the possibility that Berni moves into the top 7 (with another player moved).

EDIT: Sorry didn't see this was the Laine thread and just responded to a post. Ignore...

 

[DarkandStormy]

Laine's current season production over 82 games would equate to 33-37-70. He's, kind of quietly (imo), 40-46-86 in his last 91 games with the Jackets.

We might not ever see him hit 50 goals in a season, but he's putting up really solid numbers, imo.

 

[majormajor]

Laine's current season production over 82 games would equate to 33-37-70. He's, kind of quietly (imo), 40-46-86 in his last 91 games with the Jackets.

We might not ever see him hit 50 goals in a season, but he's putting up really solid numbers, imo.

He produces enough. And his defensive game has improved a lot. But those damn turnovers...

I'd like to see Laine stop alternating between being the best and worst player each period. How about just be average when you're not the best?

 

[Farmboy Patty]

He produces enough. And his defensive game has improved a lot. But those damn turnovers...

I'd like to see Laine stop alternating between being the best and worst player each period. How about just be average when you're not the best?

I’d put the bar at being ok at worst and a game changer at best. Also, 50+ goal seasons should be expected when the whole team looks like a contender. Just iron out the kinks and get better at risk/reward evaluation

 

[Xoggz22]

Rough spot for him in OT last night. Lost his man on the OT game winner. Really want to see him finish the year strong and healthy. Can still be a difference maker and maybe we'll have a couple of centers before his contract is up.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Rough spot for him in OT last night. Lost his man on the OT game winner. Really want to see him finish the year strong and healthy. Can still be a difference maker and maybe we'll have a couple of centers before his contract is up.

Who knows if he’ll extend if the team is doing good? The future looks pretty bright with JG locked up, KJ, a good 1st round pick this year and good D men coming up.

 

[Cowumbus]

You are talking extensions when we should be talking about who we can trade him for.

For an elite scorer, he should be scoring much more than what he does.

Laine's current season production over 82 games would equate to 33-37-70. He's, kind of quietly (imo), 40-46-86 in his last 91 games with the Jackets.

We might not ever see him hit 50 goals in a season, but he's putting up really solid numbers, imo.

Projections don’t mean anything, when he doesn’t stay healthy or sustain results. For what he is being paid, those projections should be what is guaranteed every year.

He should never be close to goals with Jenner, and Kirill may catch him before the end of the season.

 

[VT]

You are talking extensions when we should be talking about who we can trade him for.

For an elite scorer, he should be scoring much more than what he does.


Projections don’t mean anything, when he doesn’t stay healthy or sustain results. For what he is being paid, those projections should be what is guaranteed every year.

He should never be close to goals with Jenner, and Kirill may catch him before the end of the season.

Kirill has a high percentage of realization, around 25%. How much will that last him?

 

[Cowumbus]

Kirill has a high percentage of realization, around 25%. How much will that last him?

Kirill 1.85 shots/game:
Shooting Percentage: 17.8%
Percent of Shots On Net: 71.2%
Average Shot Distance: 26.1 feet
Expected Goals Per Shot: 0.097
Percent of Shots That Generated Rebound Shots: 8.2%
Percent of Shots Frozen By Goalie: 9.6%

Laine 3.53 shots/game:
Shooting Percentage: 7.6%
Percent of Shots On Net: 68.6%
Average Shot Distance: 37.7 feet
Expected Goals Per Shot: 0.066
Expected Goals Per Shot After Adjusting For Shooting Talent: 0.085
Percent of Shots That Generated Rebound Shots: 7.0%
Percent of Shots Frozen By Goalie: 10.3%

 

[VT]

Kirill 1.85 shots/game:
Shooting Percentage: 17.8%
Percent of Shots On Net: 71.2%
Average Shot Distance: 26.1 feet
Expected Goals Per Shot: 0.097
Percent of Shots That Generated Rebound Shots: 8.2%
Percent of Shots Frozen By Goalie: 9.6%

Laine 3.53 shots/game:
Shooting Percentage: 7.6%
Percent of Shots On Net: 68.6%
Average Shot Distance: 37.7 feet
Expected Goals Per Shot: 0.066
Expected Goals Per Shot After Adjusting For Shooting Talent: 0.085
Percent of Shots That Generated Rebound Shots: 7.0%
Percent of Shots Frozen By Goalie: 10.3%

It's the same. Laine can't always has this stats and Kirill simiral. I would like be wrong with Kirill but nobody can it. Nest others things: Laine are excellent first-timer, Kirill's strong shoot is wrist shot, Patrik shoots often higher because of first-timers, Kirill's not. And again, injuries. Every player is other, we don't know how injuries affect who, with what game, etc. Plus it is important what line the player is playing against. So these stats aren't too exact. If you want to compare players, they must have the same conditions.

Well, to be honest, statistics like that don't mean anything to me because they don't take into account a lot of factors. This applies not only to Patrik, but also to Kirill. He's playing better than most of players, but it doesn't show on advanced stats.

 

[thebus88]

What is the scheduled excuse for Laine, for the month of February??

Should we finally expect those gains from working in the off season with Barkov??

 

[thebus88]

You are talking extensions when we should be talking about who we can trade him for.

For an elite scorer, he should be scoring much more than what he does.


Projections don’t mean anything, when he doesn’t stay healthy or sustain results. For what he is being paid, those projections should be what is guaranteed every year.

He should never be close to goals with Jenner, and Kirill may catch him before the end of the season.

 

[Heavy Metal Jackets]

I see two issues with him. The turnovers bringing the puck into the offensive zone frequently and him shooting absurdly far out for his elite shot. I only noticed him shooting too far after another teams announcer pointed it out. Other than that, he's been backchecking and at least trying to play defensively.

 

[DarkandStormy]

What is the scheduled excuse for Laine, for the month of February??

Should we finally expect those gains from working in the off season with Barkov??

He's 5-10-15 in his last 12 games. The Jackets as a team have 31 goals in those 12 games.

What a weird post.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

He's 5-10-15 in his last 12 games. The Jackets as a team have 31 goals in those 12 games.

What a weird post.

said this in another thread but laine is the only jacket who hasn't been outscored at 5v5 this year. and he's second in ice time among forwards behind jenner. while shooting well under his career average. he's been awesome.

despite that he's -10 on the season thanks to a bunch of empty net goals, a few shorthanded goals against and being -2 in overtime.

 

[thebus88]

He's 5-10-15 in his last 12 games. The Jackets as a team have 31 goals in those 12 games.

What a weird post.

Well that’s great for Patty and his fantasy hockey owners.

The CBJ team won 3 of those 12 games and allowed 46 goals.

 

[nippanappa]

Does anyone remember last time Laine shot at 2-on-1 when carrying the puck? It's absurd that he selects to pass so often on those situations imo.

 

[NotWendell]

Does anyone remember last time Laine shot at 2-on-1 when carrying the puck? It's absurd that he selects to pass so often on those situations imo.

I'd MUCH rather see him pass than carry the puck. But like you, I'd rather see him shoot if he has an opportunity to score himself.