Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[Cowumbus]

Laine stats vs playoff teams:

21GP 6G 10A 16P with 25% of those points coming on the PP.
Of the 21GP vs playoff teams, the Jackets have won 5 games, with Laine being held pointless in 2 of the games.

The 3 wins vs playoff teams where Laine recorded a point were vs Winnipeg 4-1 (2G), vs Los Angeles 6-5OT (1G, 2A), and Edmonton 3-2OT (1A).

6 of his 16 points (38%) vs playoff teams come from the 3 games listed above -> proportionally 3 games is only 19% of his total GP vs playoff teams.

Of the 3 GP where CBJ won:
5v5 vs Winnipeg Laine was 46.67 CF% playing with Jenner and Gaudreau. 5v5 vs the Kings Laine was 47.22 CF% playing with Roslovic and Chinakhov. The only game he was neutral 50% CF 5v5 was vs the Oilers where he picked up a secondary assist playing with Jenner and Gaudreau.

In his best statistical game vs a playoff team in a game where the Jackets won, 5v5 Laine had 1 goal, and on the PP had two assists (1 primary 1 secondary). Most of his minutes 5v5 came against Arvidsson, Danault and Moore. While Gaudreau-Jenner-Nyquist took the “tough” minutes played against Kopitar Fiala and Kaliyev.

Make of it what you will.

 

[VT]

D

 

[majormajor]

Laine stats vs playoff teams:

21GP 6G 10A 16P with 25% of those points coming on the PP.
Of the 21GP vs playoff teams, the Jackets have won 5 games, with Laine being held pointless in 2 of the games.

The 3 wins vs playoff teams where Laine recorded a point were vs Winnipeg 4-1 (2G), vs Los Angeles 6-5OT (1G, 2A), and Edmonton 3-2OT (1A).

6 of his 16 points (38%) vs playoff teams come from the 3 games listed above -> proportionally 3 games is only 19% of his total GP vs playoff teams.

Of the 3 GP where CBJ won:
5v5 vs Winnipeg Laine was 46.67 CF% playing with Jenner and Gaudreau. 5v5 vs the Kings Laine was 47.22 CF% playing with Roslovic and Chinakhov. The only game he was neutral 50% CF 5v5 was vs the Oilers where he picked up a secondary assist playing with Jenner and Gaudreau.

In his best statistical game vs a playoff team in a game where the Jackets won, 5v5 Laine had 1 goal, and on the PP had two assists (1 primary 1 secondary). Most of his minutes 5v5 came against Arvidsson, Danault and Moore. While Gaudreau-Jenner-Nyquist took the “tough” minutes played against Kopitar Fiala and Kaliyev.

Make of it what you will.

I think in general most of our discussions about who plays hard or easy minutes don't make a ton of sense. This doesn't really help. The Danault line should be one of the hardest lines to score on in the NHL.

It is true that Laine often doesn't have the hardest matchups. Many scorers don't. Nobody has it harder than the Kuraly line. And Gaudreau usually gets the opponents' matchup unit, if the opposing coach happens to be matching lines (they sometimes don't). Those are sometimes elite lines and sometimes just checkers.

I don't really see a great statistical critique of Laine right now. He's produced okay. But I think he's worse than his numbers in some ways. Just when we get a line going, some of those turnovers seem to deflate the team.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Since the initial trade season, Laine is 42-49-91 in his last 98 games with the Jackets.

 

[CBJx614]

Since the initial trade season, Laine is 42-49-91 in his last 98 games with the Jackets.

PPG player? Not good enough! Trade him!

 

[thebus88]

Since the initial trade season, Laine is 42-49-91 in his last 98 games with the Jackets.

PPG player? Not good enough! Trade him!

NHL games aren’t fantasy hockey.

You guys understand his salary/cap hit, and the expectations and performance that SHOULD come with that, correct??

You guys also continuously brush over the fact that scoring is WAY up in the league over the last couple years and that “point per game” doesn’t mean or show anything like it used to.

 

[DarkandStormy]

NHL games aren’t fantasy hockey.

You guys understand his salary/cap hit, and the expectations and performance that SHOULD come with that, correct??

You guys also continuously brush over the fact that scoring is WAY up in the league over the last couple years and that “point per game” doesn’t mean or show anything like it used to.

1) Please show me in my post where I've said he's performing up to expectations.

2) Scoring is not "WAY up" in the last couple years. Depending on how you view empty netters, this year teams are are averaging 3.14 goals per game on 10% shooting. Last year, teams averaged 3.11 goals per game on 9.8% shooting. In the 56 game seasons, teams averaged 2.89 goals per game on 9.7% shooting. In '19-'20, teams averaged 2.97 goals per game on 9.5% shooting. In '18-'19, teams averaged 2.98 goals per game on 9.5% shooting.

If you take the outlier there of the pandemic season, scoring is up 0.25 goals per game. If you go from the pre-covid average, goals are up about 0.16 goals per game, or 13 more goals over an entire season for the entire team. What is this "WAY up" you are referencing?

3) Over the last two seasons, Laine is t-53rd among forwards in terms of points per game. 27 for the forwards ahead of him are listed as centers, per NHL's website (which may or may not be correct, sometimes). So he's roughly the 25th to 30th best winger in the league in terms of scoring rate per game. Not all contracts are created equal, but he does have the 23rd highest cap hit among all forwards this season.

He's also shooting a career-low 11.3% this season, even though his shots per game are up. Laine's best years in Winnipeg were buoyed by a lot of power play points (in '17-'18, he was 20-11-31 in the PP, for example). After years of a dreadful power play, Columbus decided the best course of action was to make its PP coach its head coach. With a slightly more competent power play, there's probably 10-15 more points per season you can unlock from Laine, imo.

He is certainly not 2021 bad. If he's "merely" a 40-40-80 guy here, are people still going to be upset? He is, largely, a one-trick pony and I think the FO (and Torts) gave too much credence to the idea that he could become some kind of effective two-way, 200 ft player.

 

[Marioesque]

You guys also continuously brush over the fact that scoring is WAY up in the league over the last couple years and that “point per game” doesn’t mean or show anything like it used to.

How many of those play in Columbus?
Laine makes 800k more than Voracek.

 

[VT]

NHL games aren’t fantasy hockey.

You guys understand his salary/cap hit, and the expectations and performance that SHOULD come with that, correct??

You guys also continuously brush over the fact that scoring is WAY up in the league over the last couple years and that “point per game” doesn’t mean or show anything like it used to.

There's a little catch. Compare partners and injures. Also how many of those players before him have scored goals/points on the PP. That's only when we're talking about points.

 

[BB88]

NHL games aren’t fantasy hockey.

You guys understand his salary/cap hit, and the expectations and performance that SHOULD come with that, correct??

You guys also continuously brush over the fact that scoring is WAY up in the league over the last couple years and that “point per game” doesn’t mean or show anything like it used to.

You understand the player you are talking is getting 11-12M from the market and not Laine money?

 

[majormajor]

You understand the player you are talking is getting 11-12M from the market and not Laine money?

Who is getting 11-12m on the market? I can't tell who you are talking about. It can't be Laine.

 

[BB88]

Who is getting 11-12m on the market? I can't tell who you are talking about. It can't be Laine.

My point is thebus88’s comments make zero sense regaring Laine.

The demands and money complaints don’t go together.

Laine should basically be 100 point player for thebuss to be happy with Laines production yet those guys value is easily higher than the money Laine makes

 

[NotCommitted]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Laine is not the problem, nor is he "the solution", but then again not many, if any wingers would be. I understand the argument that money could be used better for a center or a defenseman right now, but that goes right back to the "fantasy hockey" argument, the market is limited for what is available and you can't just browse through existing contracts and pick one you like better. Realistically if that Laine money was off the books, players you could've *possibly* used that for would've been something like Horvat or Kadri for example, if we're talking about centers, but there's no guarantees. I'm not so sure if committing to a long term deal to either player would be better overall.

The team is in a middle of a rebuild, also this season because of factors completely unrelated to Laine (besides the time he's missed) we really haven't gotten a good picture of where they're at with it really. Like if you look at their recent play with good goaltending, IMO it looks more in line with expectations than the mess we got early on and this is with missing their best defenseman and two veteran top-6/top-9 forwards.

They were about a .500% team last season, with the same holes in the roster but less injuries and better goaltending. While they probably overperformed a bit, OTOH that was without Gaudreau and all the young guys were a year further removed from their primes, or not in the roster at all like Marchenko and Johnson mostly.

You won't get the full value of a player like Laine when you're icing an AHL defense and have a gaping hole at center and that's not any kind of excuse for Laine, there's nothing to be excused in his play. That doesn't mean he couldn't be better, just that if you're going to be pointing fingers, he's one of the last guys in the roster you should be pointing at.

When they signed him, I believe they were eyeing the last two years of his contract because that's the sweet spot when you have a prime Laine with a still in his prime (or close enough to it) Gaudreau and have hopefully fixed the center ice and defense either through your own youngsters or one of those famous hockey trades. And that's where the real value of his contract is (or isn't) - in the larger scheme of things, it doesn't really matter all that much how he does right now, it's all about whether he delivers the goods when the team around him is ready for playoffs.

Another thing about the term of his contract is that if it the rebuild/retool isn't going like they hoped it would, they are not committed to an offensive winger long term. Like a year or two from now, it could be they're still lacking at C and/or D and have someone like Marchenko / Chinny / Johnson (who in this scenario proved to be a wing at NHL) provide good offense from wing for way less money, in this case they could trade him to a contender at TDL and have 9m + the trade return to help fix C/D. Or maybe they'd retain 50% to help with cap, but anyway. I don't want for it to come to this, since it would practically mean they're missing the window with Gaudreau and the young prospects not working out like they hoped they would.

I'm not in the trade Laine camp, but if I were, I wouldn't be looking at trading him yet, simply because I believe he could be a really good player to have and bring plenty of value for the money he makes IF things work out well elsewhere in the roster and if they don't, then likely the market for him would be better anyway a year or two from now.

 

[CBJx614]

Laine is like the modern Phil Kessel. He's gonna go near PPG or over but he's still gonna leave you wanting more and wondering what if...

He's not going to lead a team to the cup, but he could be a very important part of getting over the hump.

 

[NotCommitted]

Laine is like the modern Phil Kessel. He's gonna go near PPG or over but he's still gonna leave you wanting more and wondering what if...

He's not going to lead a team to the cup, but he could be a very important part of getting over the hump.

He's also still 24 for a month or two and scored more goals as a 19-year old than Kessel ever did. He's on his 8th NHL season and 24 is prime years already generally, so I'm not saying he's like a developing player and you definitely should take him for what you see at this point, just that if he manages to stay healthy there's some upside. I wouldn't bet on it, or expect it, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised if he went something like 50g + 50a for 100 points.

Yeah, that is pretty much that "what if" you mentioned

 

[stevo61]

Laine is like the modern Phil Kessel. He's gonna go near PPG or over but he's still gonna leave you wanting more and wondering what if...

He's not going to lead a team to the cup, but he could be a very important part of getting over the hump.

Kessel was a pretty underrated player in his prime and was a playoff beast. He constantly led those Leaf teams in points by a fair margin and actually led the Penguins in playoff scoring in that 1st Stanley Cup win.

 

[BB88]

Kessel was a pretty underrated player in his prime and was a playoff beast. He constantly led those Leaf teams in points by a fair margin and actually led the Penguins in playoff scoring in that 1st Stanley Cup win.

Kessell should have been the MVP on that run.

 

[thebus88]

You understand the player you are talking is getting 11-12M from the market and not Laine money?

I’m not talking any other player besides Laine. He isn’t nearly as good defensively or effort wise that some of you are giving him credit for.

Sure, a better Laine with a consistent effort and better production would be worth more. I don’t get your point.

Either way, Laine would have to become a completely different player to be worth $11-12 million a year. It could possibly be where it’s at now. He should be getting something like $6.5-7 MAX for what he brings to the ice every 4/5 games.

 

[thebus88]

My point is thebus88’s comments make zero sense regaring Laine.

The demands and money complaints don’t go together.

Laine should basically be 100 point player for thebuss to be happy with Laines production yet those guys value is easily higher than the money Laine makes

Not only do “100 point players” have way more production than Laine, they all play a much more impactful overall game than Laine does (as do MANY other players getting paid both more or less than him), as is shown in their ability to put up 100 points.

What you guys don’t understand is that it’s not his offensive ability, line mates, or coaches that are holding him back. It’s his mindset, intelligence, and effort level.

 

[BB88]

Not only do “100 point players” have way more production than Laine, they all play a much more impactful overall game than Laine does (as do MANY other players getting paid both more or less than him), as is shown in their ability to put up 100 points.

What you guys don’t understand is that it’s not his offensive ability, line mates, or coaches that are holding him back. It’s his mindset, intelligence, and effort level.

& Laine isn’t being paid like a player like that.

He’s close to ppg for a 100 game stretch with Columbus and is producing well on a bottom3 team.

Good luck finding ppg players for free from the market

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Kessell should have been the MVP on that run.

 

[Marioesque]

My point is thebus88’s comments make zero sense regaring Laine.

The demands and money complaints don’t go together.

Don't try to think of it rationally,

Stats show Laine is a top player in Columbus, he affects the game positively when on the ice. Bus doesn't care about what reality is, it's about his perception of Laine which he can never shake. He can't really complain about the on ice numbers so he'll complain about subjective things like "effort level" which he can freely move the goal posts on. Stats don't bend to his will, subjective mystical attributes do.

Most (I hope) think objectively and compare to other players numbers in the team and understand the value. He looks at it from a purely emotional, irrational point of view.

Like trying to determine in an F1 race who is going fastest by not looking at lap times and leaderboard but just by "who do I like?"

It's never going to make sense logically, because it's not born from logic.

 

[thebus88]

Don't try to think of it rationally,

Stats show Laine is a top player in Columbus, he affects the game positively when on the ice. Bus doesn't care about what reality is, it's about his perception of Laine which he can never shake. He can't really complain about the on ice numbers so he'll complain about subjective things like "effort level" which he can freely move the goal posts on. Stats don't bend to his will, subjective mystical attributes do.

Most (I hope) think objectively and compare to other players numbers in the team and understand the value. He looks at it from a purely emotional, irrational point of view.

Like trying to determine in an F1 race who is going fastest by not looking at lap times and leaderboard but just by "who do I like?"

It's never going to make sense logically, because it's not born from logic.

Ok, so we know that Laine works out with Barkov in the off season and that Gaudreau signed with the CBJ to play with Laine, now the real important questions are if Laine owns a doghouse or a goldfish…??

 

[Marioesque]

Ok, so we know that Laine works out with Barkov in the off season and that Gaudreau signed with the CBJ to play with Laine, now the real important questions are if Laine owns a doghouse or a goldfish…??

And why is any of that important in evaluating what he does on the ice?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

And why is any of that important in evaluating what he does on the ice?

It isn't but it's all stuff we've been told by people who think any negative assessment of Laine is illogical and not based in reality.