Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[Farmboy Patty]

This absolute crap of a player somehow manages to stay on top of Goals For vs Goals Against (a.k.a. winning) on 5-on-5. So far, he has not been able to elevate the other guys when he is NOT on ice, which is sad and obviously something Bjork/Atkinson/PLD did regularly, but somehow after two last seasons he just manages to be on top of all 2 season guys and still there with KJ & Johnny that have less than 1/2 of the TOI.

He is the luckiest man alive, I guess. Somehow he has managed to be better than average defensively, which is pretty nice feat when you think he typically faces pretty fierce competition and can only shoot the puck. How do you defend by shooting the puck I don't know, but as per thebus88 that's only thing he does so... Too bad eg. Bjork had that bad of a shot, which was the reason his defense was just crap last season.

(stats: 21-22 & 22-23, CBJ relative GF% 5-on-5, min. TOI 500 minutes ~roughly 1/2 season)

View attachment 635993

Furtherhmore, when you check this very season on isolation, which is obviously the most fair way to compare guys, you get following list (300 minutes min. TOI) 5-on5:

View attachment 635994

But I've been told that he is still a cancer on the team and a shit player, so those stats mean nothing

 

[thebus88]

You admitted that you aren’t watching the games as much so you probably missed his second goal just last night.

I mean, I guess it’s a “rebound” (off the boards) and he’s skating near the net, so you got me there, but that goal is NOT the type of thing I’m talking about.

It’s a 3 on 2, odd man break, and Laine has a defender chasing behind him, but nobody actually near him and he doesn’t have to do anything extra at all to fight to get to the net or get the shot off.

 

[Halberdier]

My biggest complaint with Laine is pretty much what @majormajor has outlined on several occasions. He likes to carry the puck, end to end, hold it too long and turns it over. His turnovers are at inopportune times and it's part of the reason he doesn't see consistent success. My personal belief is that he truly thinks that he's helping the team and really trying to help them win by doing so. The problem is he apparently fails to recognize that when he does that it is outside the team construct and it hurts the team more than helps. Sure a pretty play happens once in a while but more often than not it's a turn over that leads to an odd man rush or a turnover at out blue line that results in chaos. Right now, with this team, that's the worst possible scenario because the goaltending and defense can not cover for that. So we end up with a compounding problem.

I happen to like Laine and see him as a key player when this team starts winning. He's a true goal scorer and that comes with being streaky. His injuries hurt his consistency and his ill times whirls hurt the structure. I don't know that it will change but I think it's less problematic with a NHL roster. Maybe it is also reduced when overall better players on on the ice with him in general. Who knows. I still think he's a piece that will be important to this team if by the grace of the hockey Gods we can A) sustain some health and B) see some development in the youth. This team isn't this bad and it isn't Laine's fault. He's simply not helping like some of us would really like to see.

That's fair. And yes, he plays the hero ball when others aren't doing the job. Not that he could do it much better either, but when the structure & line mates are failing, he tries to do it all by himself. I think that's OK occasionally, rarely, when there is no other option. But with guys like KJ, Gaudreau on the lineup, there should be alternatives for that.

 

[thebus88]

But I've been told that he is still a cancer on the team and a shit player, so those stats mean nothing

Explain to me why Rick Nash, who unlike Laine, had an ACTUAL decent “two way game” and effort level, was traded from the CBJ and the team began to perform better almost immediately??

Bottom line is he DOES NOT bring to the ice what some of you claim he does. He also ISN’T as talented (in relation to MANY other NHL players) offensively as many give him credit for, which is compounded by his lack of intensity, which is also something else where the 2 different sides of the Laine argument seem to be seeing 2 completely different players on the ice.

Dude goes scoreless for 4-5 games and it’s f***ing crickets. 1 “great” game against a team that’s been 1 of the worst teams on the league over the past few years, on goals he didn’t have to do a whole lot on, and this is what we get?? What a joke. The team and nearly everything involving Laine at this point.

Patrik Laine AND the bluejackets. Just give it time. Yes, I will follow up in the Laine threads after the trade.

 

[KJ Dangler]

To be fair, Bjork was not traded because of Laine. If anything, Bjork was traded because of Johnny and Gudbransson (and because of Voracek&Nyquist contracts and KJ & others coming into the pipeline). Also in part I guess the FO lost their belief in Bjork as a top line player on contender since the weak last season and seems that Bjork isn't exactly ripping it in Kraken either, so while short term losing Bjork sucks to some degree, trading him seems to be the right call since 5.4M for a 3rd line player is just way, way too much. So far it seems that 20-21 was the career season for Bjork. He was not that guy on 21-22, and based on stats (points and relative GF%), it seems he isn't even close that guy in 22-23 either.

Ps. I am not happy about Bjorkstrand trade, but I think it was the right call even when it sucks to part ways with such a great guy, and short term it sucks also on ice.

I think Bjork was traded because of the expected emergence of Marchenko, Chinakov, and Texier . Same principle is playing out with Gavrikov . Sure , it would be awesome to keep him but you are balancing , his contract cost , does that contract impede you being able to keep your core together in the future .

 

[majormajor]

. How do you defend by shooting the puck I don't know, but as per thebus88 that's only thing he does so... Too bad eg. Bjork had that bad of a shot, which was the reason his defense was just crap last season.

So Bjorkstrand went from having good goals against results to having poor goals against results last season to having good goals against results this season, all the while he maintains strong underlying xGA results. Almost like year to year variations in on-ice goals against have more to do with goaltending than wingers.

Laine might be improving his defensive play but this is a foolish way to find out. His underlying xGA results are a tiny bit better in relative terms compared to his team, which is one of the worst defensive teams the league has seen in decades. What does that mean? Not a whole lot. That can be heavily biased by who he shares the ice with - the talent next to him on the ice is better than the talent on the ice when he is on the bench.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I mean, I guess it’s a “rebound” (off the boards) and he’s skating near the net, so you got me there, but that goal is NOT the type of thing I’m talking about.

It’s a 3 on 2, odd man break, and Laine has a defender chasing behind him, but nobody actually near him and he doesn’t have to do anything extra at all to fight to get to the net or get the shot off.

Well, you asked a question and it was really bad timing and I can't help that you appear to be constantly shifting the goal posts in an effort to not buy anything that would contradict your established position on the player.
What makes the matter funny (to me) is that I've been clear and open with my doubts about the player as well and yet poor articulation of a position has me appearing to defend him.

 

[stevo61]

I think Bjork was traded because of the expected emergence of Marchenko, Chinakov, and Texier . Same principle is playing out with Gavrikov . Sure , it would be awesome to keep him but you are balancing , his contract cost , does that contract impede you being able to keep your core together in the future .

Which is fine when guys start taking jobs not when making room for them before they prove much. Who is expected to emerge and take Gavrikov's role anytime soon? Plus Gavrikov is only 27, sometimes I will like we act as though he'll age of of the next wave of players coming through when in reality defenders generally develop later and remain effective longer than forwards

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Which is fine when guys start taking jobs not when making room for them before they prove much. Who is expected to emerge and take Gavrikov's role anytime soon? Plus Gavrikov is only 27, sometimes I will like we act as though he'll age of of the next wave of players coming through when in reality defenders generally develop later and remain effective longer than forwards

I feel like there has never been a time when a 27-year-old player hasn't been "too old" for when we're "ready to compete." Granted, it just seems that way, but jeesh.

 

[stevo61]

I feel like there has never been a time when a 27-year-old player hasn't been "too old" for when we're "ready to compete." Granted, it just seems that way, but jeesh.

This management group seems to love having a young team but we've yet to have a core thats really been able to grow together. HF in general (not just the CBJ board) love draft picks and young players. On paper we have some very good prospects, lets cross our fingers and hope this group is a good enough one to build around for more than a couple years and have to do it all over again.

 

[VT]

Which is fine when guys start taking jobs not when making room for them before they prove much. Who is expected to emerge and take Gavrikov's role anytime soon? Plus Gavrikov is only 27, sometimes I will like we act as though he'll age of of the next wave of players coming through when in reality defenders generally develop later and remain effective longer than forwards

I think young players should play many minutes in TOP 6/TOP 4 against the best players of opponents. PP and PK etc and not in the 4th line here. I still understand Cole Sillinger because he's a center and Max Domi is better as a winger. But not wingers or Kent Johnson who, IMHO, should play center in AHL.

 

[thebus88]

Well, you asked a question and it was really bad timing and I can't help that you appear to be constantly shifting the goal posts in an effort to not buy anything that would contradict your established position on the player.
What makes the matter funny (to me) is that I've been clear and open with my doubts about the player as well and yet poor articulation of a position has me appearing to defend him.

I’m not “shifting the goal posts” in any way. He didn’t do or show anything different in that last game or in scoring those goals than what anybody (even myself) thinks he is capable of doing. NOBODY is saying he isn’t a good shooter/goal scorer. Just how good/skilled he is offensively, is what is up for debate, as is the overall impact of his play on the team, as his deficiencies (that DO exist) must be taken into account.

Problem is, there is a CLEAR disconnect between people regarding all the different “intangibles” or deficiencies Laine does or doesn’t bring to the ice. His offensive ability and “potential” is also greatly exaggerated much of the time. He’s given the excuse all the time of not being a certain type of player, and yet at the same exact time somehow gets credit for the “potential” of these same possible qualities, if he does add it to his game.

Regarding the DET game and individual plays/goals, and my questions about his rebounds and attacking the net, it’s 1 game, 1 “rebound” goal. It’s something that should be expected, should be the norm, not every game, but nearly every shift. Again, the question/comment was on how often he does it, not a claim that he NEVER does it, which is all semantics anyway, as he does not attack the net consistently, and THAT is the problem I was/am getting at.

 

[Halberdier]

So Bjorkstrand went from having good goals against results to having poor goals against results last season to having good goals against results this season, all the while he maintains strong underlying xGA results. Almost like year to year variations in on-ice goals against have more to do with goaltending than wingers.

Laine might be improving his defensive play but this is a foolish way to find out. His underlying xGA results are a tiny bit better in relative terms compared to his team, which is one of the worst defensive teams the league has seen in decades. What does that mean? Not a whole lot. That can be heavily biased by who he shares the ice with - the talent next to him on the ice is better than the talent on the ice when he is on the bench.

I was just poking fun on thebus88 claims about Laine nothing serious about Bjork, even when his play did not please my eye last season. This season I haven't really seen his games as a Kraken, and it might be that his underlying stats are OK, but results not that good.

Thebus claimed that Laine is shit, but just can shoot the puck. However, last two seasons (and his best seasons as a Jet as well) he managed to stay positive on ice both ways.

Btw. relative -1.09 goals / 60 minutes is not a tiny bit as a difference, but I hear you that the team isn't any good. Compared to Johnny, that's -1.33 less GA per 60, and yes, that's quite a difference. Not small by any means.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Which is fine when guys start taking jobs not when making room for them before they prove much. Who is expected to emerge and take Gavrikov's role anytime soon? Plus Gavrikov is only 27, sometimes I will like we act as though he'll age of of the next wave of players coming through when in reality defenders generally develop later and remain effective longer than forwards

My guess is the front office feels Jiricek will in the short term , with Svozil and Cuelemans possibly ready to compete next yr as well

 

[stevo61]

My guess is the front office feels Jiricek will in the short term , with Svozil and Cuelemans possibly ready to compete next yr as well

Thats the roster spot but I was asking role. I dont think any of them are your typical shutdown guy. Jiricek will be capable eventually we hope but who knows how long before he becomes that player at the NHL level

 

[KJ Dangler]

Thats the roster spot but I was asking role. I dont think any of them are your typical shutdown guy. Jiricek will be capable eventually we hope but who knows how long before he becomes that player at the NHL level

My guess is Boquist is safe , he looks great recently … Bean and Peeke , are one of them traded , for more of a shutdown defenseman ? Or who’s a veteran free agent after season ? You have plenty of offense with Werenski , Jiricek, Boquist …

I don’t think they have any problems paying to keep Gavrikov , but if his metrics say 3rd pair , and he wants 2nd pair money , what do you do ? They already overpaid for Gud , you can’t do same with Peeke

 

[stevo61]

My guess is Boquist is safe , he looks great recently … Bean and Peeke , are one of them traded , for more of a shutdown defenseman ? Or who’s a veteran free agent after season ? You have plenty of offense with Werenski , Jiricek, Boquist …

I don’t think they have any problems paying to keep Gavrikov , but if his metrics say 3rd pair , and he wants 2nd pair money , what do you do ? They already overpaid for Gud , you can’t do same with Peeke

Its sad because Peeke was supposed to be that guy. Kept coming up from within how much bigger he got and I was thinking cool, he can be meaner on the ice... Hes been a major disappointment for most of the year. Sure hes not in the best position to succeed but noone is right now, the part he can control is being hard to play against and he isnt.

Gavrikov is what hes always been and thats a pretty clear 2nd pair guy to me. Hes not the guy you hope has to try and fills Werenski' shoes in situations like this. Will be nice when we have another top pair player when injuries do happen.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I think Bjork was traded because of the expected emergence of Marchenko, Chinakov, and Texier . Same principle is playing out with Gavrikov . Sure , it would be awesome to keep him but you are balancing , his contract cost , does that contract impede you being able to keep your core together in the future .

Cap era team general management constant struggle in a nutshell

 

[CBJx614]

Its sad because Peeke was supposed to be that guy. Kept coming up from within how much bigger he got and I was thinking cool, he can be meaner on the ice... Hes been a major disappointment for most of the year. Sure hes not in the best position to succeed but noone is right now, the part he can control is being hard to play against and he isnt.

Gavrikov is what hes always been and thats a pretty clear 2nd pair guy to me. Hes not the guy you hope has to try and fills Werenski' shoes in situations like this. Will be nice when we have another top pair player when injuries do happen.

I'm not giving up on Peeke quite yet, let's see how he looks when's properly slotted in the lineup.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

So Bjorkstrand went from having good goals against results to having poor goals against results last season to having good goals against results this season, all the while he maintains strong underlying xGA results. Almost like year to year variations in on-ice goals against have more to do with goaltending than wingers.

Laine might be improving his defensive play but this is a foolish way to find out. His underlying xGA results are a tiny bit better in relative terms compared to his team, which is one of the worst defensive teams the league has seen in decades. What does that mean? Not a whole lot. That can be heavily biased by who he shares the ice with - the talent next to him on the ice is better than the talent on the ice when he is on the bench.

You are forgetting that Laine and Johnny are a constant target for the best of the opposing teams players. They are facing the best on a daily basis.

Another thing about this ridiculous “Laine sucks at defense” bs is that the clear majority of the great scoring forwards have been average or bad at defense. I think that it’s kind of a shame that Laine wasn’t encouraged and coached to be an ok defensive player and let him focus on putting the puck in the net every time he saw a chance. He had the tools, the will and the desire to score as much as possible and winning every single game. He’s taken a clear step backward in his approach to the game.

Instead of playing to his strengths and working on the areas that he could clearly improve, he seems to be putting too much focus on the things that every great 3rd liner can do, instead of cheating a bit like McDavid & Draisaitl, as an example. A large part of this is of course the lack of D who can push they play and the lack of a clear 1st line center to play with Johnny and Laine.

 

[majormajor]

You are forgetting that Laine and Johnny are a constant target for the best of the opposing teams players. They are facing the best on a daily basis.

Another thing about this ridiculous “Laine sucks at defense” bs is that the clear majority of the great scoring forwards have been average or bad at defense. I think that it’s kind of a shame that Laine wasn’t encouraged and coached to be an ok defensive player and let him focus on putting the puck in the net every time he saw a chance. He had the tools, the will and the desire to score as much as possible and winning every single game. He’s taken a clear step backward in his approach to the game.

Instead of playing to his strengths and working on the areas that he could clearly improve, he seems to be putting too much focus on the things that every great 3rd liner can do, instead of cheating a bit like McDavid & Draisaitl, as an example. A large part of this is of course the lack of D who can push they play and the lack of a clear 1st line center to play with Johnny and Laine.

For the record I've said for a couple years now that Laine is fine without the puck. He backchecks well. He just needs to cut down on the turnovers, stop carrying the puck into crowds. If we have the puck more that will help our scoring, his scoring, and help our defense. He'll score more if he lets his teammates carry more and he focuses on what he does best.

Regarding matchups, they matter but I think they tend to be overstated. They're a lot messier than people think. And it's not all top line vs top line. When the opposing team is sending out their top scorers for a faceoff in our zone, Lars is not sending Laine and Gaudreau out there to defend. He sends the Kuraly line. And conversely Laine and Gaudreau are often out there vs defensive lines that are less of a scoring threat.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I mean, I guess it’s a “rebound” (off the boards) and he’s skating near the net, so you got me there, but that goal is NOT the type of thing I’m talking about.

It’s a 3 on 2, odd man break, and Laine has a defender chasing behind him, but nobody actually near him and he doesn’t have to do anything extra at all to fight to get to the net or get the shot off.

In other words, what you are saying is that being at the right place at the right time or the ability find soft spots for getting a shot of in case the puck carrier notices you, is not especially hard to pull off on a regular basis throughout the career of a professional hockey player?

Laine’s goal wasn’t just a simple tap in. It was a simple display of the difference of being elite at goal scoring and getting a lucky bounce or hitting the logo on the chest. He’s done it before, and will do it again, lots of times. I hope you have a good dental insurance the way that you are grrinding your teeth

For the record I've said for a couple years now that Laine is fine without the puck. He backchecks well. He just needs to cut down on the turnovers, stop carrying the puck into crowds. If we have the puck more that will help our scoring, his scoring, and help our defense. He'll score more if he lets his teammates carry more and he focuses on what he does best.

Regarding matchups, they matter but I think they tend to be overstated. They're a lot messier than people think. And it's not all top line vs top line. When the opposing team is sending out their top scorers for a faceoff in our zone, Lars is not sending Laine and Gaudreau out there to defend. He sends the Kuraly line. And conversely Laine and Gaudreau are often out there vs defensive lines that are less of a scoring threat.

IMO the biggest difference in matchups is the opponents D. Valid points though

 

[behemolari]

Dude goes scoreless for 4-5 games and it’s f***ing crickets. 1 “great” game against a team that’s been 1 of the worst teams on the league over the past few years, on goals he didn’t have to do a whole lot on, and this is what we get?? What a joke. The team and nearly everything involving Laine at this point.

Thats what snipers generally are, most of GMs choose different players instead on their roster for sure, especially if they are for winning.. not every team necessary is

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Analytics look at Laine a lot more favorably this year, even though the terrible PP has been pulling the points down.

Personally I'm still not confident on how well analytics can value his offensive impact but it's nice to see blue numbers up there other than just finishing.

 

[NotCommitted]

Analytics look at Laine a lot more favorably this year, even though the terrible PP has been pulling the points down.

Personally I'm still not confident on how well analytics can value his offensive impact but it's nice to see blue numbers up there other than just finishing.

Might have something to do with the averaging over 3 seasons, I think he played better last season overall, but his numbers would've been brought down heavily by that 19-20 season. Also he had worse linemates, IMO he was pretty impressive last season taking into account his usage and linemates. If Laine is the best player in your 1st line, arguably by far, your first line is not very good. No dig at Laine or people he played with last season, but I don't think Laine is at a level where he should be the best player in your 1st line, or if he is, it needs to be really close and the players must compliment each other well. Now, while those charts still take 19-20 into account, it's impact must be far less and this season he has had the benefit of playing with Gaudreau a lot.