Ontario Reign 21-22 Thread 2: Reigndrops keep falling on my head

[King'sPawn]

Not saying you trade QB for just any player, but he's clearly not an Evgeni Malkin type player where you immediately hang up should someone dangle a legit game-changing player in his prime.

I understand your overall point, but I think you're overstating Malkin, when he was the same age as Byfield.

Malkin was 20 years, 3 months old when he came to the NHL. Byfield is still only 19 years and 6 months old.

Malkin had pretty meh WJC numbers as well. In his D+1 season, he scored 10 points in 6 games centering Ovechkin on the top line. Byfield scored 7 in 7 while largely centering Quinn and Pelletier on the third line.

You are right that untradeable gets thrown around too much, but I doubt anyone would have foreseen the career Malkin had, when he was Byfield's age.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That Turcotte drop pass to Fagemo was beautiful

Was that 3 assists for Spence? Dude is completely in the zone now

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Where are you getting your stats?

I'm not saying that AA is good for Byfield, he's obviously not, he's more like Kryptonite. But he has nowhere near the lowest CF% since he's been here, he's middle of the pack. And he actually has one of the better GF%, as well as one of the better DFF% (which I feel is superior to HDCF/HDCA because it includes both for and against and utilizes Fenwick). He's had a better GF% than Kopitar over the last 2 seasons, if you can believe it. I usually use hockey-reference and puckIQ as I find they have superior stats to other sites. AA also faces higher QOC than about 70% of other forwards.

I don't want to keep the guy, he just doesn't fit what we are trying to accomplish. He's too high event - especially for playing with a rookie, but overall he's in the positive. He's about as controlled as a cyclone. But his numbers haven't been bad at all, they've been above average as far as our forwards go.

For you and the others who were asking, I know we've run into this before. I use natural stat trick. And I was running them for last year and this year. He's nowehre near middle of the pack on any of those and if you change between situations (5v5 ES etc.) he doesn't move more than one or two slots and the people defending him go "see he's not last he's second to last". With the comparison to Kopitar consider Kopi's minutes and matchups to realize AA is doing that in about as pillowsoft of deployment as you can get (and of course Kopi has his own criticism anyway).

I'm not going to derail this thread any more than we already have at this point but WRT the original point there is ZERO reason for this guy to be here beyond this term unelss he suddenly learns how to play defense and/or use his teammates. I like him, I love his skills, I like him sticking up for people--but he's a severe roadblock for our prospects beyond this year (even arguably now considering that line).

 

[Fishhead]

That Turcotte drop pass to Fagemo was beautiful

Was that 3 assists for Spence? Dude is completely in the zone now

I thought Turcotte would let up a bit after getting a few games up, but he's actually elevated his game even more. Best response that could be hoped for. Also that scrub Vilardi is really noticeable out there, it looks like he's finally settled in and embraced the change. He's starting to get to the proper spots instinctually and it really shows.

 

[Herby]

I understand your overall point, but I think you're overstating Malkin, when he was the same age as Byfield.

Malkin was 20 years, 3 months old when he came to the NHL. Byfield is still only 19 years and 6 months old.

Malkin had pretty meh WJC numbers as well. In his D+1 season, he scored 10 points in 6 games centering Ovechkin on the top line. Byfield scored 7 in 7 while largely centering Quinn and Pelletier on the third line.

You are right that untradeable gets thrown around too much, but I doubt anyone would have foreseen the career Malkin had, when he was Byfield's age.

As you know from previous discussions, I place almost zero value on the WJC. Byfield had 6 of those points in one game vs. a non-hockey power in Switzerland. Byfield was largely a non-factor in his WJC appearances and I place almost zero value in it, just as I don't place much on it when a Kings prospect plays well. It's just to small of a sample size to judge anyone, especially with many of the games being against nothing teams. It also should be noted that Malkin that year made the Russian Olympic team in Torino as a 19 year old and produced solid offensive numbers, including a multi-point game vs. an American team obviously made up of all NHL'ers.

I kind of disagree that Malkin was not considered a phenom coming in. Malkin was the best player on his league team, in the 2nd best league in the world at 19 and immediately stepping into the NHL as, and I hate to use this word but a superstar, and he was, he was a superstar. If QB takes a massive step next season and comes anywhere close to Malkin I will happily eat crow, but I just don't see it. Malkin is a Hall of Fame superstar and QB just doesn't look to be at that level (not that many are)

 

[Fishhead]

For you and the others who were asking, I know we've run into this before. I use natural stat trick. And I was running them for last year and this year. He's nowehre near middle of the pack on any of those and if you change between situations (5v5 ES etc.) he doesn't move more than one or two slots and the people defending him go "see he's not last he's second to last". With the comparison to Kopitar consider Kopi's minutes and matchups to realize AA is doing that in about as pillowsoft of deployment as you can get (and of course Kopi has his own criticism anyway).

I'm not going to derail this thread any more than we already have at this point but WRT the original point there is ZERO reason for this guy to be here beyond this term unelss he suddenly learns how to play defense and/or use his teammates. I like him, I love his skills, I like him sticking up for people--but he's a severe roadblock for our prospects beyond this year (even arguably now considering that line).

Well, yeah we can argue the semantics but I think that last part is really what it's all about. He just doesn't fit in, there isn't a scenario I can see where he should come back.

I was wondering about the stats because I've noticed lately some are vastly different, for example, puck IQ had AA at 5th in GF% and 7th in CF% among forwards last year, with middle to upper deployments. Even with his struggles this year he's 8th in GF%, while 7th in QOC. It doesn't change the fact that he doesn't belong, I'm just trying to figure out why a lot of the stat compilers don't jibe.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I thought Turcotte would let up a bit after getting a few games up, but he's actually elevated his game even more. Best response that could be hoped for. Also that scrub Vilardi is really noticeable out there, it looks like he's finally settled in and embraced the change. He's starting to get to the proper spots instinctually and it really shows.

The most encouraging thing about the Reign is that the young pro kids are starting to catch up to the vets in production, which is what's making them so dangerous

 

[kilowatt]

Can't ask for much more from our boys in the A. Fourth in the league in points percentage. Four guys above a point per game. Six guys with 10 or more goals already. Two of the top three scorers in the league. Spence is leaguing the league in rookie defensemen scoring. Pretty much all of our prospects performing at or above expectations.

Spence: 2 goals, 28 points in 33 games
Anderson-Dolan: 15 goals, 27 points in 30 games
Vilardi: 10 goals, 25 points in 24 games
Madden: 11 goals, 22 points in 34 games
Fagemo: 14 goals, 20 points in 31 games
Turcotte: 6 goals, 15 points in 23 games

 

[bland]

As you know from previous discussions, I place almost zero value on the WJC. Byfield had 6 of those points in one game vs. a non-hockey power in Switzerland. Byfield was largely a non-factor in his WJC appearances and I place almost zero value in it, just as I don't place much on it when a Kings prospect plays well. It's just to small of a sample size to judge anyone, especially with many of the games being against nothing teams. It also should be noted that Malkin that year made the Russian Olympic team in Torino as a 19 year old and produced solid offensive numbers, including a multi-point game vs. an American team obviously made up of all NHL'ers.

I kind of disagree that Malkin was not considered a phenom coming in. Malkin was the best player on his league team, in the 2nd best league in the world at 19 and immediately stepping into the NHL as, and I hate to use this word but a superstar, and he was, he was a superstar. If QB takes a massive step next season and comes anywhere close to Malkin I will happily eat crow, but I just don't see it. Malkin is a Hall of Fame superstar and QB just doesn't look to be at that level (not that many are)

The value of the WJCs isn't really in racking up gaudy numbers, its seeing which players rise to meet the occasion. These are the highest pressure games at that level of their young careers. Not everybody can mentally handle it, but once you show that you can, you get the benefit of the doubts. If you shank it, it keeps doubt alive or at least plants seeds.

Nothing is the be all or end all, but it is tangible evidence of success or perceived evidence of failure.

 

[bland]

I understand your overall point, but I think you're overstating Malkin, when he was the same age as Byfield.

Malkin was 20 years, 3 months old when he came to the NHL. Byfield is still only 19 years and 6 months old.

Malkin had pretty meh WJC numbers as well. In his D+1 season, he scored 10 points in 6 games centering Ovechkin on the top line. Byfield scored 7 in 7 while largely centering Quinn and Pelletier on the third line.

You are right that untradeable gets thrown around too much, but I doubt anyone would have foreseen the career Malkin had, when he was Byfield's age.

For me, when I say that so and so or a group of names is untradeable its not that those players can't be improved upon. Its that I soundly believe that the most likely path to success lies in a deeper pool of a variety of style highly skilled players. Its rare that an organization gets the chance to do that and it provides so many different opportunities for improvement when the young team inevitably plateaus.

I think that if you make those 3 for 1 trades too early you handcuff your maneuverability. You bring the cap into question before you really know what you have, and the single best thing an organization can have as it rises to contention is cost-controlled production.

Even if this trade works, this team still either has to wait for the remaining kids to catch up or it will have to fill the other holes by dealing even more kids. The Kings have no 3rd line, a terrible PK and they are really small on the backend. A Chychrun doesn't change any of that, so if he does improve the team to the point they are expected to win a round, you need to bring in two other really good players to get over the hump.

Some might be willing to do that, but to me that is a much lower ceiling of potential then you would get if you retain and properly develop Byfield, Turcotte, Clarke and Faber. I consider them untradeable because they are the best path to success for this team at this time.

 

[kinghock]

Basing it off of my own memory as well as the relevant publications at the time. Where was Olli Jokinen ranked after his D+1 vs. QB? Not bashing QB, just saying the Kings have traded prospects like this before. I think @Brodeur has discussed past THN Futurewatch issues, so maybe he can give some clarity with the 1998 rankings. But I do know the first rankings on this site back in the late 90's had Jokinen as the #3 overall prospect, so to say he was viewed similar to Turcotte is simply not correct.

I know though, nothing pleases you. You were the one who accused me of being a "stats watcher, who clearly has never seen him play" in reference to another prospect after ironically giving an opinion after seeing said prospect play in person, so keep thinking what you want to believe.

And are you really accusing Axel of being negative? Haha, wow, just wow.

I am also agree with Kings11 regarding you being negative on young talents.

 

[bmr]

Can't ask for much more from our boys in the A. Fourth in the league in points percentage. Four guys above a point per game. Six guys with 10 or more goals already. Two of the top three scorers in the league. Spence is leaguing the league in rookie defensemen scoring. Pretty much all of our prospects performing at or above expectations.

Spence: 2 goals, 28 points in 33 games
Anderson-Dolan: 15 goals, 27 points in 30 games
Vilardi: 10 goals, 25 points in 24 games
Madden: 11 goals, 22 points in 34 games
Fagemo: 14 goals, 20 assists in 31 games
Turcotte: 6 goals, 15 points in 23 games

20 assists for Fagemo? Lol

 

[kilowatt]

20 assists for Fagemo? Lol

Oops, that was supposed to say points, my bad.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

As you know from previous discussions, I place almost zero value on the WJC. Byfield had 6 of those points in one game vs. a non-hockey power in Switzerland. Byfield was largely a non-factor in his WJC appearances and I place almost zero value in it, just as I don't place much on it when a Kings prospect plays well. It's just to small of a sample size to judge anyone, especially with many of the games being against nothing teams. It also should be noted that Malkin that year made the Russian Olympic team in Torino as a 19 year old and produced solid offensive numbers, including a multi-point game vs. an American team obviously made up of all NHL'ers.

I kind of disagree that Malkin was not considered a phenom coming in. Malkin was the best player on his league team, in the 2nd best league in the world at 19 and immediately stepping into the NHL as, and I hate to use this word but a superstar, and he was, he was a superstar. If QB takes a massive step next season and comes anywhere close to Malkin I will happily eat crow, but I just don't see it. Malkin is a Hall of Fame superstar and QB just doesn't look to be at that level (not that many are)

You are absolutely right about Malkin. His greatness was overshadowed by Crosby. He has been a sure fire superstar since before stepping foot on American ice.

 

[Herby]

I am also agree with Kings11 regarding you being negative on young talents.

Such as?

Saying that QB is not Malkin, that I'd probably trade him for a 25 year old on pace for 50 goals or that his floor is PLD is now seen as negative? I've said plenty of positive things about QB, but he's not some slam dunk superstar that you hang up immediately if someone calls asking about in a potential trade. But no one from his draft is either, I'd say the same thing about Raymond and Stutzle. Every player has a floor and a ceiling, how have we not learned this over the years with hockey prospects? PLD has many similarities to QB, including size, skill level and draft pedigree. PLD is on pace for another 60-65 point season, but having the nerve to say that is QB's **FLOOR** is negative.

I don't have an opinion on Clarke as a player as I have never seen him play, so I don't play the scouting report game, but based on circumstantial evidence he also seems to not be the type of player you hang up on if someone calls dangling an elite 50 goal type player, if that is negative to be it. But again, I have no opinion on the player, strictly talking about as an asset.

Turcotte? All I did two years ago was give my opinion after seeing him play multiple times in person, that he is more a middle 6 player than the comparisons being pushed here by some (Jonathan Toews and Mike Richards). Ofcourse people like the person you agree with want to run with that and accuse me of calling him a "bust" or "being a stats watcher" or "clearly you have never seen him play". I don't hate the player, I just didn't like the value with taking said player with a 5OA pick. I said, in comparing him to players I have seen play that he is more JAD and Andrew Cogliano than he is Dylan Larkin (what I was realistically hoping for from a 5OA pick). Cogliano has played 1100 NHL games and been a solid middle 6 player on multiple teams, but apparently calling him that is the same as calling him a bust. And two years later, is my opinion more closer to being correct, or the people who said he was the next Toews or Richards? Do you want to read blind optimism or reality?

Vilardi. My opinion on Vilardi and how I believe the Kings view him is different and my comments in this thread on him are more how I think the Kings view him and not me. I wish he were given a chance right now because we desperately need our 3rd line to produce offensively if we go anywhere this season, but lets deal with the reality as to why he hasn't been, the Kings have a huge hole on the roster that he in theory should be able to fill, but he isn't being given the chance, why? Sure seems likely the Kings are skeptical he can skate at the NHL level, why else isn't he up? Again, I don't really agree that he's not up, but are we dealing with blind optimism or reality of the situation? And realistically Vilardi being in the AHL in his D+5 is a disappointment from a guy taken with that high a pick. Saying so is not some negative hot take.

What about the Kings prospects I am very high on? Do I own player stock in Arthur Kaliyev and Brock Faber? I saw Kaliyev play and was immediately convinced he had 35+ goal potential in the NHL with one of the best releases and arsenal of shots I had ever seen from a player his age and said as much on this board. Faber I was probably on big before anyone else here having been able to see quite a bit of his games on TV and this season in person twice has confirmed my initial views from TV. Based on how current NHL'ers performed at the same level he is well on his way to being a very solid 2nd pairing defender in the NHL, with perhaps even upside for more. Why do I make these comments if I am just negative on all the Kings young players?

I got news for ya man, in a rebuild nothing is all perfect. You have some homeruns, you have some singles and yes you have some strike outs. In the Kings rebuild of 2003-2010 we saw a variety of players end up all over the place and it still worked out. There were homeruns (Kopitar, Quick, Doughty), maybe a triple (Brown), some doubles (Martinez, Voynov) a few singles (Lewis, Bernier) and yes, some strike-outs (Hickey, Forbort). Not every single player lives up to their ceiling or expectation, and this rebuild will be no different, but I guess discussing this is just seen as being negative.

People like you and kings11 just make it not even fun to have any kind of discussion on this board because if you sway in any way from the orthodoxy you are accused of being negative or being a hater, and it just gets a little old.

 

[tbrown33]

And realistically Vilardi being in the AHL in his D+5 is a disappointment from a guy taken with that high a pick. Saying so is not some negative hot take.

This for sure is generally true, but the caveat is that Vilardi missed a shitton of time with his back, and covid-shortened seasons. So just a little more atypical than usual development paths. Plus, from a raw stats perspective, he produced pretty decently in his rookie year. I'm still hopeful for him as he has so much raw talent.

 

[Herby]

This for sure is generally true, but the caveat is that Vilardi missed a shitton of time with his back, and covid-shortened seasons. So just a little more atypical than usual development paths. Plus, from a raw stats perspective, he produced pretty decently in his rookie year. I'm still hopeful for him as he has so much raw talent.

His talent is unquestioned but his skating on many nights last year made him a liability on the ice, especially in the D zone, so I get it why there are concerns about having him up in a playoff race. But this year he will be asked to play in a much less pressure filled role where he is facing lesser lines and D-pairs from other teams. Last year him, JC and AA were the Kings 2nd line, this year he would be playing wing with QB and either AA or Brown on what is the Kings 3rd line. His career thus far has certainly been a disappointment but I would like to see him in the NHL as he has very little to gain from dominating the AHL at his age and the Kings still need more skill in the lineup. None of those takes contradict each other, atleast to me.

 

[johnjm22]

What makes Spence's production even more impressive is that he's been able to do it while only having a 2.5% shooting percentage.

 

[King'sPawn]

As you know from previous discussions, I place almost zero value on the WJC. Byfield had 6 of those points in one game vs. a non-hockey power in Switzerland. Byfield was largely a non-factor in his WJC appearances and I place almost zero value in it, just as I don't place much on it when a Kings prospect plays well. It's just to small of a sample size to judge anyone, especially with many of the games being against nothing teams. It also should be noted that Malkin that year made the Russian Olympic team in Torino as a 19 year old and produced solid offensive numbers, including a multi-point game vs. an American team obviously made up of all NHL'ers.

I kind of disagree that Malkin was not considered a phenom coming in. Malkin was the best player on his league team, in the 2nd best league in the world at 19 and immediately stepping into the NHL as, and I hate to use this word but a superstar, and he was, he was a superstar. If QB takes a massive step next season and comes anywhere close to Malkin I will happily eat crow, but I just don't see it. Malkin is a Hall of Fame superstar and QB just doesn't look to be at that level (not that many are)

In the context of scouting now versus 2004, there were fewer scouting publications and less access, so there was certainly more "hype", but that was in the early phases of independent scouting publications plus the Internet. Superlatives were vogue.

Since then, there have been several busts to have scouting services look stupid (ahem, Yakupov). Which has led to, by and large, an increase of independent scouting services, overscouting, and more subdued projections.

I'm not even saying that Byfield will be Malkin as far as career. Just that the hype Malkin had was a product of the times that, if he had a similar start to Byfield this year, his hype would not be the same as it was in 2004.

 

[kinghock]

No one is untradeable, it's a word that is thrown around way to much on every team forum on this site about unproven prospects. This organization in the past traded prospects who are more highly regarded than anyone we have right now and both resulted in bringing in star players from other teams (Mike Richards and Ziggy Palffy). We don't know the situations of the other 31 teams, what if Kyle Connor goes to Kevin Cheveldayoff and says he no longer wants to play in Winnipeg, LA would immediately make a ton of sense, we aren't offering any of the guys you listed to acquire a guy who might score 50 goals this season in his year 24/25 season?

Not saying you trade QB for just any player, but he's clearly not an Evgeni Malkin type player where you immediately hang up should someone dangle a legit game-changing player in his prime.

I do not agree with your concept of building title winning team in hockey (acquiring talent mostly via smart trades)
In my opinion team must have backbone from their own drafted and developed players.
Kings who won 2012 and 2014 had a lot of players acquired in trades, but they had 5 main players.
All of them were drafted and developed in LA.
I do not think I need to tell you who they are (Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Voynov and Brown).
I have no problem with you being negative on all young talents, but I have a problem with your readiness to trade them without giving them chance to develop no matter how talented they are.
I believe in current prospect pool we have level of talent similar to title winning team:
Byfield, Kaliyev, Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari, Helenius, Chromiak, Pinnelli
Clarke, Farber, Durzi, Spence, Grans, Bjornfot, Kirsanov
We are only missing great goalie prospects…
Obviously not everybody from this 15 will become real stars, but if 5 of them will do they will become backbone for new title winning team.
P.S. Kopitar and Doughty will not be main players on this team…

 

[Herby]

I do not agree with your concept of building title winning team in hockey (acquiring talent mostly via smart trades)
In my opinion team must have backbone from their own drafted and developed players.
Kings who won 2012 and 2014 had a lot of players acquired in trades, but they had 6 main players.
All of them were drafted and developed in LA.
I do not think I need to tell you who they are (Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Voynov and Brown).
I have no problem with you being negative on all young talents, but I have a problem with your readiness to trade them without giving them chance to develop no matter how talented they are.
I believe in current prospect pool we have level of talent similar to title winning team:
Byfield, Kaliyev, Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari, Helenius, Chromiak, Pinnelli
Clarke, Farber, Durzi, Spence, Grans, Bjornfot, Kirsanov
We are only missing great goalie prospects…
Obviously not everybody from this 15 will become real stars, but if 5 of them will do they will become backbone for new title winning team.
P.S. Kopitar and Doughty will not be main players on this team…

So you have a different organizational philosophy and don’t wish to trade anyone. Ok, that is fine. I guess my main counter to that is the last rebuild drafted 3 Hall of Fame players over a 4 draft period. I guess it’s me being negative again but I just don’t see this group having those types of players.

Still don’t know how me saying I would trade QB or BC for Kyle Connor is in any way being negative about them. Kyle Connor is top 5 in the NHL in goals-per-game and turned 25 a couple of months ago, he is a tremendous offensive talent, you act like I want to trade QB for some 30 year old 2nd liner. Or how I am “negative about all the prospects”, but if thinking Turcotte is not the next Toews or Richards is negative I guess I am guilty as charged. I think that opinion has aged pretty well in the last 2 years.

Thanks for your response

 

[funky]

How has Vilardi’s strength and skating looked the last few weeks. Any progress?

has JAD played any wing this year?

 

[kinghock]

How has Vilardi’s strength and skating looked the last few weeks. Any progress?

has JAD played any wing this year?

Vilardi’s strength and skating looked much better during the last 6 weeks.
JAD played wing this year and scored a lot of goals.
Somehow I do not like his game and is not sure he is more than good 4th line player in NHL.

 

[ru4reals]

Impressed by Grand Rapids crowd that arena looks packed yesterday and today. More fans in that arena than Buffalo and Arizona. LOL. 2-1 Griffins. Vilardi with the lone goal from Fagemo and Gaunce.

 

[kinghock]

Impressed by Grand Rapids crowd that arena looks packed yesterday and today. More fans in that arena than Buffalo and Arizona. LOL. 2-1 Griffins. Vilardi with the lone goal from Fagemo and Gaunce.

Ingham in goal is not good at all...