Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It is largely the position, but saying he is overmatched at top 4 and proven bottom 6 largely does not add up.

He has been in the league 10 years. His TOI in those years have been decidedly as a second pairing player:

Year 1 - 3rd TOI
Year 2-5 2nd TOI
Year 6 1st TOI
Year 7 3rd TOI, although took over the 2nd spot from Marino 2/3 of the way thru the season and playoffs.
Year 8-9 1st TOI
Year 10 2nd TOI


That all said, I'm not a fan of labelling D men too much of a 1st/2nd/3rd pairing, especially the first two. Its very common to have an offensively aligned pairing and a defensively aligned pairing (3rd pairing usually plugs the gaps). Any particular game if a role has to be overplayed to usual (i.e. PK or PP) one player or the other may get more minutes.

I prefer to key in on the role Ceci plays. An upgrade on him is only an upgrade if that player can kill penalties, play the defensive end and contribute without being an offensive producer. Is Ceci overmatched? Yes. And every player with those type of minutes is overmatched. Parayako advanced stats look even worse. Its not that he is a worse player, he just plays really tough minutes. Larrson advanced stats look really terrible for two years, better last year when his deployment was eased.

Its the salary cap era. Your team is going to always have a weak spot you'd like to upgrade. Every team in the league has that. If people think there is a notably better defensive player/PKer at RHD available at a good price, good luck finding said player ....

It's a blind spot with advance stats to undervalue defensive defenseman as they skew to driving offensive results. It's aspirational to believe this game boils down to scoring. This is a high speed game with a massive amount of chaos and non-repeating events. Parakyo is a great example I drilled down on sometimes back. When you overlay additional information in terms of usage, responsibilities, simple toi, defense tilted zone time, production with minimal PP results, the guy is a formidable defensive defenseman with above league size, skating and shooting percentiles critical to his team's success. Good to dig deeper on conclusions from secondary data sources which miss important context of player actual usage.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

I like everything except the sign JVR part. I heard that he fell off a cliff last season. IMO Schultz is better than he was when we last saw hi here. Guy has 2 rings and a bunch of years of NHL experience to back that up.

38 points doesnt scream fallen off a cliff. A guy who can play pp2 and makes the third line a more legit offensive threat isnt something to be smirked at if you can get him for league min.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

We will have to buy cap one way or another and it will cost us many draft picks. If we want to win during the McDrai window do you want to go all in now or wait until they are 35 and 36 years old.

They are in their prime now. If you don't go all in now why would they even consider extensions. Why wouldn't they want to go to a team that is willing to spend their assets so they can cement their legacies with a bunch of Stanley Cup rings.


Fine. You can pretend there's room on the power play for Barrie. I won't argue.

Edit: Did you say Schultz? I can't keep up. What's the f***ing difference? They are bad one dimensional players who can't help the Oilers win championships.

I never mentioned barrie once why even reply if you cant even keep up with who you're arguing with and what you're arguing against. He played a pivotal role on a seattle team making the playoffs and had a step back when the whole team did it's not like they are giving him term.

 

[bolobow]

I tend to think of Broberg and Holloway as damaged goods now and think we should just take the picks.

1. The hope with RFA players is that they provide outsized value compared to their contracts. Neither player is particularly proven and with these overpays, the chances of that happening are slim. Even if they manage to, they will just get a raise in 2 years. The chances of them underperforming now are high, and if that happens, they force us to overpay on the qualifying offers or walk as UFAs with no compensation.
2. Our best window to win the cup is now, it makes no sense to jeopardize this to gamble on a future payoff of Broberg and Holloway. Keeping them means dumping roster players and I can't see this improving our chances to win the cup today. If we don't win the cup, we are going to be pointing to these two contracts as a reason. Plus it ties our hands going forward.
3. Players have started giving us discounts and we are hoping for more from Draisaitl, Bouchard and McDavid. How can we ask for discounts if the extra money just goes into matching outlandish offer sheets? Do we want to risk future contracts and the cap structure for this? I'm actually wondering how this will affect St. Louis players future negotiations.

Nothing against either player, I think they will both be fine NHL players in the future, but unfortunately they are no longer what Edmonton needs (cheap depth with high upside) and way too risky when we have no cap space to spare.

 

[McBooya42]

Why are we adding Barrie? If we're making trades why not make a good one? Get a good player and straighten up our cap predicament now. I don't care if it takes a bunch of picks and magic beans.

I expect something that fixes our cap and brings in a good player will cost 2 first round picks. Stop pushing our challenges down the road anticipating something that won't be there.

Take the initiative immediately. Sign Draisaitl long term. Sign Bouchard long term. Make a trade that costs futures but will improve the team over that same time frame.

It will cost big but being so close you have to make your move or it's a pantomime of winning.

Barrie to replace Ceci. He's played over a 1000 minutes with him and they were ok.

Darnell Nurse - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

First search I could find with them together.

Money wise, if we could get Barrie at 1 million x 1, it would mostly be a wash with Kulak and Ceci moved out.
The PK takes a hit though

 

[tiger_80]

Both were not central to last year's team and both are probably replaceable. But it's a shame, they could not lock them at a decent rate before the offer sheets came in.

 

[Broberg Speed]

I never mentioned barrie once why even reply if you cant even keep up with who you're arguing with and what you're arguing against. He played a pivotal role on a seattle team making the playoffs and had a step back when the whole team did it's not like they are giving him term.

I understand you want to add bad players to the Oilers roster so they'll lose.

Barrie to replace Ceci. He's played over a 1000 minutes with him and they were ok.

Darnell Nurse - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

First search I could find with them together.

Money wise, if we could get Barrie at 1 million x 1, it would mostly be a wash with Kulak and Ceci moved out.
The PK takes a hit though

Adding all these ex-Oilers.

So they'll lose big time.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

38 points doesnt scream fallen off a cliff. A guy who can play pp2 and makes the third line a more legit offensive threat isnt something to be smirked at if you can get him for league min.

Go and talk to Bruins fans. His game fell hard in the 2nd half of the season and he is said to be sllllllloooooooowww.

 

[Mr Positive]

I tend to think of Broberg and Holloway as damaged goods now and think we should just take the picks.

1. The hope with RFA players is that they provide outsized value compared to their contracts. Neither player is particularly proven and with these overpays, the chances of that happening are slim. Even if they manage to, they will just get a raise in 2 years. The chances of them underperforming now are high, and if that happens, they force us to overpay on the qualifying offers or walk as UFAs with no compensation.
2. Our best window to win the cup is now, it makes no sense to jeopardize this to gamble on a future payoff of Broberg and Holloway. Keeping them means dumping roster players and I can't see this improving our chances to win the cup today. If we don't win the cup, we are going to be pointing to these two contracts as a reason. Plus it ties our hands going forward.
3. Players have started giving us discounts and we are hoping for more from Draisaitl, Bouchard and McDavid. How can we ask for discounts if the extra money just goes into matching outlandish offer sheets? Do we want to risk future contracts and the cap structure for this? I'm actually wondering how this will affect St. Louis players future negotiations.

Nothing against either player, I think they will both be fine NHL players in the future, but unfortunately they are no longer what Edmonton needs (cheap depth with high upside) and way too risky when we have no cap space to spare.

Imo the Oilers need to rebuild their future core more than they need cheap youth in their depth.

I'm on the fence about Holloway. Maybe he signed in St.Louis because he sees a path to be a top six player. I had some hope of that but he just seems strongly like a Cogliano type who will find greatness when he gives up on a top six role. So with him I want to keep him if we can but it's a bottom sixer we are talking about.

Broberg is the one we must keep imo. I respect those who say we should walk but I see him as top 4 all the way, eating up big minutes. He will rise just as Ekholm fades. This is the plan the team should have.

 

[ottawah]

Barrie to replace Ceci. He's played over a 1000 minutes with him and they were ok.

Darnell Nurse - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

First search I could find with them together.

Money wise, if we could get Barrie at 1 million x 1, it would mostly be a wash with Kulak and Ceci moved out.
The PK takes a hit though

Barrie would be horrible with Ceci's usage. Barrie is a good PP guy and when playing with offensive players. Thats bouchards role now. Barrie brings nothing to the team other than pucks in his own net.

Sure Nurse and Barrie did well together. When they were playing Bouchard/Ekholm deployment minutes. They won't today, and thats a massive, guaranteed disaster.

 

[McBooya42]

I understand you want to add bad players to the Oilers roster so they'll lose.

Adding all these ex-Oilers.

So they'll lose big time.

Well, that's what I think it will take to keep Broberg TBH. We can just let both go to St. Louis and concentrate on finding an upgrade for Ceci, but who?

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Go and talk to Bruins fans. His game fell hard in the 2nd half of the season and he is said to be sllllllloooooooowww.

Go look at their center depth last year. He had 2 less points than Debrusk so its not like any of their forward core outside Pasternk was good throughout the year. 30ish points from the third line for a million dollars is more value than Perry.

 

[McShogun99]

I tend to think of Broberg and Holloway as damaged goods now and think we should just take the picks.

1. The hope with RFA players is that they provide outsized value compared to their contracts. Neither player is particularly proven and with these overpays, the chances of that happening are slim. Even if they manage to, they will just get a raise in 2 years. The chances of them underperforming now are high, and if that happens, they force us to overpay on the qualifying offers or walk as UFAs with no compensation.
2. Our best window to win the cup is now, it makes no sense to jeopardize this to gamble on a future payoff of Broberg and Holloway. Keeping them means dumping roster players and I can't see this improving our chances to win the cup today. If we don't win the cup, we are going to be pointing to these two contracts as a reason. Plus it ties our hands going forward.
3. Players have started giving us discounts and we are hoping for more from Draisaitl, Bouchard and McDavid. How can we ask for discounts if the extra money just goes into matching outlandish offer sheets? Do we want to risk future contracts and the cap structure for this? I'm actually wondering how this will affect St. Louis players future negotiations.

Nothing against either player, I think they will both be fine NHL players in the future, but unfortunately they are no longer what Edmonton needs (cheap depth with high upside) and way too risky when we have no cap space to spare.

There’s almost zero chance that Holloway will be worth that contract here. He’s pretty much locked into the bottom six with no PP time unless injuries happen. I would be amazed if he gets 30 points here.

 

[Broberg Speed]

There’s almost zero chance that Holloway will be worth that contract here. He’s pretty much locked into the bottom six with no PP time unless injuries happen. I would be amazed if he gets 30 points here.

To validate 2.29M on this roster he should be a mainstay on the pk and score 15 goals. We don't even know if he can stay healthy. The playoff run is the only string of games he has yet to do so.

 

[onetweasy]

For the “trade everyone to keep Broberg” crowd - how do you think Broberg does walking into camp on day 1 after the Oilers had to trade well liked veterans Ceci and Kulak, LTIR Kane to make room for his contract while asking the franchise and star players to take pay cuts. Oh and he already told the team back in December that he wanted a trade.

Enjoy the Lou Broberg. May your career be unflavoured ice malk……now with vitamin R….

 

[Broberg Speed]

Imo the Oilers need to rebuild their future core more than they need cheap youth in their depth.

I'm on the fence about Holloway. Maybe he signed in St.Louis because he sees a path to be a top six player. I had some hope of that but he just seems strongly like a Cogliano type who will find greatness when he gives up on a top six role. So with him I want to keep him if we can but it's a bottom sixer we are talking about.

Broberg is the one we must keep imo. I respect those who say we should walk but I see him as top 4 all the way, eating up big minutes. He will rise just as Ekholm fades. This is the plan the team should have.

Cogliano was an iron man. I think he set a record for consecutive games.

Edit: I was hoping this post and my last post would have merged. Infernal technology.

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

Unpopular opinion: Trading both Ceci and Kulak will demote our team a tier or 2. I think they're both extremely under-appreciated. We haven't missed the playoffs since they joined the team. Kulak has underrated skating and puck moving assets, especially as a 3rd pairing dman. And Ceci, although not very good offensively, is solid in his own zone. How many times has he bailed out Nurse, the worst defenseman ive ever seen at that price. Cody is constantly intercepting passes and he uses his stick very effectively in the d zone.

Broberg was trade bait prior to the season. Now, after a few games in the playoffs, he's a 4.5m player that will cause 2 experienced well liked defenseman's exodus? Chemistry is so important, and trading 2 players that bled with you for years, battled every year in the playoffs, could certainly ruin that formula

I really do not like Broberg, asks for a trade as a 21 yr old unproven 8th overall pick, then signs an offer sheet, not giving a sht about the team or the organization, only looking for $$. Let that clown walk. Keep Holloway, easy match

 

[Sheikyerbouti]

Imo the Oilers need to rebuild their future core more than they need cheap youth in their depth.

I'm on the fence about Holloway. Maybe he signed in St.Louis because he sees a path to be a top six player. I had some hope of that but he just seems strongly like a Cogliano type who will find greatness when he gives up on a top six role. So with him I want to keep him if we can but it's a bottom sixer we are talking about.

Broberg is the one we must keep imo. I respect those who say we should walk but I see him as top 4 all the way, eating up big minutes. He will rise just as Ekholm fades. This is the plan the team should have.

I agree with all that, but Broberg's contract, plus the fact he will be forced to play his offside here, makes me think simply acquiring a RD is smarter. If they can replace Broberg's level of play over the next two years with an actual RD, the contract is not really worth the risk. Matching really depends on what the replacement options are.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Imo the Oilers need to rebuild their future core more than they need cheap youth in their depth.

I'm on the fence about Holloway. Maybe he signed in St.Louis because he sees a path to be a top six player. I had some hope of that but he just seems strongly like a Cogliano type who will find greatness when he gives up on a top six role. So with him I want to keep him if we can but it's a bottom sixer we are talking about.

Broberg is the one we must keep imo. I respect those who say we should walk but I see him as top 4 all the way, eating up big minutes. He will rise just as Ekholm fades. This is the plan the team should have.

Seems to me more and more that if both Broberg and Holloway hit their stride they will be long term glue guys that every team would like to have. I don't see either player becoming a star.

I think St. Louis would be very fortunate to receive those types of players long term for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder, even if they are currently overpaying them with these contracts.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Go look at their center depth last year. He had 2 less points than Debrusk so its not like any of their forward core outside Pasternk was good throughout the year. 30ish points from the third line for a million dollars is more value than Perry.

Their center depth sucked, that said I'll take Bruins fans word over the stat sheet. Maybe they're wrong, but if he is slow and we lose Holloway and Broberg, that's probably not a good fit.

 

[Louis Cypher]

Barrie to replace Ceci. He's played over a 1000 minutes with him and they were ok.

Darnell Nurse - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

First search I could find with them together.

Money wise, if we could get Barrie at 1 million x 1, it would mostly be a wash with Kulak and Ceci moved out.
The PK takes a hit though

Barrie not on the powerplay playing only defense and killing penalties is worse than Ceci. Cheaper but worse.

 

[Louis Cypher]

I think we need to keep both. They both elevated their game in the playoffs when I mattered most. They are young and fast with big upside. We will be old and slow without McLeod, Foegele already. Not sure the numbers work but trade Kulak, LTIR Kane and send Perry down.

 

[UpHere]

For the “trade everyone to keep Broberg” crowd - how do you think Broberg does walking into camp on day 1 after the Oilers had to trade well liked veterans Ceci and Kulak, LTIR Kane to make room for his contract while asking the franchise and star players to take pay cuts. Oh and he already told the team back in December that he wanted a trade.

Enjoy the Lou Broberg. May your career be unflavoured ice malk……now with vitamin R….

it's a business and they all have to go through it - as long as you're a good dude and do your job, no one cares

 

[McBooya42]

Barrie not on the powerplay playing only defense and killing penalties is worse than Ceci. Cheaper but worse.

You're right, 100%. If we want ro keep Broberg though, it's the only way. Keep in mind, I voted to let both go. We can't afford to overpay both, and with Holloway playing bottom 6 minutes, is he worth 2.3?

 

[MessierII]

I think we need to keep both. They both elevated their game in the playoffs when I mattered most. They are young and fast with big upside. We will be old and slow without McLeod, Foegele already. Not sure the numbers work but trade Kulak, LTIR Kane and send Perry down.

There’s no scenario where it’s smart to pay 7 million dollars to keep Holloway and Broberg. It just doesn’t work.