Value of: Nylander (Trade)

[Beukeboom Fan]

DeBrincat recently got a 7th overall and people thought Ottawa did well. Why would a better player in Nylander suddenly not be worth something similar?

It's funny you mention that - Debrincat with 1 year of RFA elibity also just got traded for a 1st round DP (lower of DET/BOS with top 10 protection), and signed long term for less than $8M.

Also, Debrincat has scored 40 goals twice (and was pacing for 40 in the COVID shortened season) - how many times has Nylander done the same?

I like Nylander, and think he's a really good player. Just don't understand how some people seem to be valuing him in this thread.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

It's funny you mention that - Debrincat with 1 year of RFA elibity also just got traded for a 1st round DP (lower of DET/BOS with top 10 protection), and signed long term for less than $8M.

Also, Debrincat has scored 40 goals twice (and was pacing for 40 in the COVID shortened season) - how many times has Nylander done the same?

I like Nylander, and think he's a really good player. Just don't understand how some people seem to be valuing him in this thread.

He literally scored 40 this past season . His value would be very high , especially given his 6.9 cap hit for the coming season . I think he ends up signing in Toronto for low 9s

 

[Heldig]

Nylander isn't butter soft, and with his production and cap inflation, 10Mil is fine for him.

Agree to disagree on the softness. He avoids contact like the plague. That said, who are his comparable for $10 million per year?

He had a great season last year. Over the past 5 he ranks 40th in points. A $10 million salary would make him in the top 15 salaries. He is NOT a top 15 player (and yes I get the cap going up and all - just saying I dont value him nearly that highly). I think many teams would balk at him being their highest paid player. Screws future salary structure IMO.

 

[PensandCaps]

Agree to disagree on the softness. He avoids contact like the plague. That said, who are his comparable for $10 million per year?

He had a great season last year. Over the past 5 he ranks 40th in points. A $10 million salary would make him in the top 15 salaries. He is NOT a top 15 player (and yes I get the cap going up and all - just saying I dont value him nearly that highly). I think many teams would balk at him being their highest paid player. Screws future salary structure IMO.

Not all contracts are signed at the same time. I'm pretty sure we all understand that a cap raise is happening and that players will be paid more than better players who got their contracts in the past before the cap exploded.

 

[StephenPeat]

Hanfin would be the 7th d on the leafs behind Rielly, McCabe ( need him on PK ) and Gio ( leadership and still
Close to Hanfin )

You have an extremely strong (generational) Username to Post Quality ratio whose limit is a true Assymtote approaching Absolute Zero.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Start with Cooley from Arizona

Absolutely not. I wouldn't trade anything more than a 2nd + Jenik and another prospect or pick possibly for Nylander. And someone else will happily pay more than that. But Cooley? f*** no.

 

[Fogelhund]

Agree to disagree on the softness. He avoids contact like the plague. That said, who are his comparable for $10 million per year?

He had a great season last year. Over the past 5 he ranks 40th in points. A $10 million salary would make him in the top 15 salaries. He is NOT a top 15 player (and yes I get the cap going up and all - just saying I dont value him nearly that highly). I think many teams would balk at him being their highest paid player. Screws future salary structure IMO.

$9.25 on a $87.7 cap is 10.5% of the cap. That ranks him tied for 47th in cap hits in the league.

Absolute dollars are NOT how you compare contracts, it's cap percentage.

He's not getting $10 mil... that's an ask, and most people know how negotiations work. He avoids contact yes, but he also very much goes to, and scores in the dirty areas around the net. Does that make him soft?

 

[Heldig]

Not all contracts are signed at the same time. I'm pretty sure we all understand that a cap raise is happening and that players will be paid more than better players who got their contracts in the past before the cap exploded.

Sure, I guess some teams will look at it exactly like that.

I would not want MY team to do so. I just dont think a winger is worth $10 million and I suspect a LOT of teams will think along the same lines. The market is limited IMO.

As a comparison, look at Matthew Tkachuk signing last year. He's younger, much better, and signed for $9.5 million per. No way would I pay Nylander more than Tkachuk.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

He literally scored 40 this past season . His value would be very high , especially given his 6.9 cap hit for the coming season . I think he ends up signing in Toronto for low 9s

Nylander scored 40 goals once (which I thought I put in my post, but I stupidly didn't), and Debrincat has done at least twice (three times if you give him credit for pandemic shortened season). Just from a production standpoint - Debrincat is very comparable IMO. And he got traded for a decent roster player (Kubalik) and a top 10 protected 1st round DP (lower of DET/BOS in 2024).

 

[Fogelhund]

Sure, I guess some teams will look at it exactly like that.

I would not want MY team to do so. I just dont think a winger is worth $10 million and I suspect a LOT of teams will think along the same lines. The market is limited IMO.

As a comparison, look at Matthew Tkachuk signing last year. He's younger, much better, and signed for $9.5 million per. No way would I pay Nylander more than Tkachuk.

It seems you completely lack an understanding of cap %, and cap inflation.

You also seem to have this imaginary number of $10 mil for Nylander, which just isn't going to happen. It's probably going to be around $9.25, which not only is absolutely less than Tkachuk, it's also a full percentage point below as a cap percentage.

 

[Hodge]

I don’t see why he would be worth more than what Detroit just gave up for DeBrincat, even with an extension. Leafs should just keep him for the year then let him walk. They’re trying to win a Cup.

 

[notbias]

Agree to disagree on the softness. He avoids contact like the plague. That said, who are his comparable for $10 million per year?

He had a great season last year. Over the past 5 he ranks 40th in points. A $10 million salary would make him in the top 15 salaries. He is NOT a top 15 player (and yes I get the cap going up and all - just saying I dont value him nearly that highly). I think many teams would balk at him being their highest paid player. Screws future salary structure IMO.

5 years is a long time for someone so young... he is 23rd over the last 3, 21st over the last 2, 20th last year.

He should probably get something around Aho, he is better than Meier.

I don’t see why he would be worth more than what Detroit just gave up for DeBrincat, even with an extension. Leafs should just keep him for the year then let him walk. They’re trying to win a Cup.

He's much better than him...

 

[Nothingbutglass]

It doesnt sound like he is signing at all based on the 32 thoughts interview.

 

[Hodge]

He's much better than him...

He’s not and it doesn’t matter even if he is slightly better. 25yo DeBrincat on a 7.8Mx4 contract is a more valuable asset than 28yo Nylander signed for 9.5Mx8.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

He's much better than him...

Can you please explain why? Over their career they score at almost an identical pace (per 82 GP: AD - 34g/34a/68p, WN 28g/40a/68p) while playing with other skilled players and neither will ever be up for a Selke. Debrincat is a couple years younger, and was willing to sign for $7.8M aav x 4, while it sounds like Nylander is expecting to be paid signficantly more. Nylander has been the Leafs best player in the P/O's from what I've seen over the last 3 years, so I'd give him props for that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It doesnt sound like he is signing at all based on the 32 thoughts interview.

What did they say?
I recall the story, Nylander would take a discount, if his teammates did. Since on the last deals he had the cheapest deal.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

If Toronto doesn't trade him, starting in 2024/25, they have:

Matthews - $13.5 million
Tavares - $11 million
Marner - $10.9 million and due a raise
Nylander - $10 million

Bertuzzi and Domi will also be due raises and be UFAs. They also need to fill our almost their entire d-core and sign at least 1 goalie.

Good luck building a team around that. Nylander also seems to want to go to a team where he is more of a main attraction.

We can…. We….

Ahh nvm

 

[Heldig]

It seems you completely lack an understanding of cap %, and cap inflation.

You also seem to have this imaginary number of $10 mil for Nylander, which just isn't going to happen. It's probably going to be around $9.25, which not only is absolutely less than Tkachuk, it's also a full percentage point below as a cap percentage.

Willfully ignoring it may be more appropriate.

I can be 100% wrong on this BUT I think player comparables are a thing still and when negotiating his next contract (I use $10 million because that was reported in this thread) most GMs will use a player like Tkachuk to say you are not getting more than him $ wise regardless of cap percentage.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

What did they say?
I recall the story, Nylander would take a discount, if his teammates did. Since on the last deals he had the cheapest deal.

Nylander interview

 

[PensandCaps]

Sure, I guess some teams will look at it exactly like that.

I would not want MY team to do so. I just dont think a winger is worth $10 million and I suspect a LOT of teams will think along the same lines. The market is limited IMO.

As a comparison, look at Matthew Tkachuk signing last year. He's younger, much better, and signed for $9.5 million per. No way would I pay Nylander more than Tkachuk.

Well, inflation is a thing that happens across sports. It's just common sense that you get more money as the cap increases.

Tkachuk signed his deal pre cap explosion and is in Florida, he would get more elsewhere with a worse tax situation.

Newer contracts of good players will be more expensive than elite players who signed their deal years ago. Just the way math works.

 

[TheDoldrums]

If Toronto doesn't trade him, starting in 2024/25, they have:

Matthews - $13.5 million
Tavares - $11 million
Marner - $10.9 million and due a raise
Nylander - $10 million

Bertuzzi and Domi will also be due raises and be UFAs. They also need to fill our almost their entire d-core and sign at least 1 goalie.

they literally just signed Bertuzzi and Domi as UFAs lol, we know their market value why would they give them raises? I don't even like Domi but he seems obsessed with being a Leaf so I doubt he would push for big money if they actually want to retain him. And you don't re-sign Bertuzzi, you find the next guy who sees the opportunity to play with superstars and comes for a low commitment. This same point is made every year, recently it was guys like Mikheyev and Bunting. You don't need to pay them because there will always be guys willing to play on a good team with stars in a city like Toronto.

And by "starting in 2024/25" you also mean ending in 2024-25, as that's the last year of Tavares' deal.

 

[biturbo19]

Less than people would expect probably. Wingers just don't command the same sort of premium as Centers and Defencemen. Especially not when they're staring down the barrel of a massive contract extension with UFA leverage.

 

[Fogelhund]

I can be 100% wrong on this

You are. Cap percentage is all that matters.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Carter Mazur (top 6 potential w. ELC) + 1st 2025 for Nylander

 

[McJedi]

DeBrincat recently got a 7th overall and people thought Ottawa did well. Why would a better player in Nylander suddenly not be worth something similar?



Why do people only ever consider that Nylander only has 1 year left?

So does Skjei, and Necas is an RFA looking for a huge raise himself. Pesce also 1 year left.

Everyone always comments on Carolina being screwed by Nylander's contract status but then completely ignore that Toronto is taking on expiring contracts too.

Not apples to apples. Debrincatt was an RFA so it was two years of control. And Ottawa surely regrets that mistake. Doesn’t help make Nylander more valuable as a rental into UFA.

at the TDL a player on an expiring contract is a 'rental' Nylander has a full year left, so, not exactly a 'rental'

That’s probably a fair assessment. He’s worth more today than in March 2024.