Value of: Nylander (Trade)

[impaaaaaact]

He's certainly not tier 1, but if he says something with that much confidence, I see no reason to disregard it. An American having a Canadian team(s) on a no-trade list checks out logically.

Islanders fan here checking in to say he's been wrong more than a few times when he's said something super confidently

 

[mydnyte]

Remove Hanafin and Flames still say no. Their pick will be high in 2024. Maybe top 10. rental Nylander isn’t worth that much.

at the TDL a player on an expiring contract is a 'rental' Nylander has a full year left, so, not exactly a 'rental'

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Pesce seems like the answer (with balancing pieces) but I'm not sure what Carolina's appetite to extend Nylander would be, especially considering they have Necas and Jarvis due new deals im 2024 as well. They do have TT's money coming off the books. But they'll need to look ahead to 2025 and beyond, no defenseman is signed more than 2 years... they won't want to tilt their cap structure abacus too much towards forwards.

I mean I am not sure what Toronto's appetite to extend Pesce would be either.

Pesce will be 29 this year, has a lot of tough shutdown miles on him, and Canes fans are already talking about 6-7m on a long term deal...sounds like a much riskier proposition than paying Nylander a couple million more at a younger age to be a better player.

 

[Heldig]

Because it seems alot of fans think he's worth peanuts.

I think if Nylander is seeking $10 million paper season then his trade value is pretty low. Can't imagine many teams think a butter soft winger (albeit very talented) is worth that.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Remove Hanafin and Flames still say no. Their pick will be high in 2024. Maybe top 10. rental Nylander isn’t worth that much.

DeBrincat recently got a 7th overall and people thought Ottawa did well. Why would a better player in Nylander suddenly not be worth something similar?

Carolina has 9 one-way contracts on defense right now plus Beaulieu on a PTO. They have zero need for Timmins. Trading Necas for only 1 guaranteed year of Nylander also doesn't make sense for Carolina.

Take out Timmins and Necas and re-work the plus.

Why do people only ever consider that Nylander only has 1 year left?

So does Skjei, and Necas is an RFA looking for a huge raise himself. Pesce also 1 year left.

Everyone always comments on Carolina being screwed by Nylander's contract status but then completely ignore that Toronto is taking on expiring contracts too.

 

[Chrispy]

Why do people only ever consider that Nylander only has 1 year left?

So does Skjei, and Necas is an RFA looking for a huge raise himself. Pesce also 1 year left.

Everyone always comments on Carolina being screwed by Nylander's contract status but then completely ignore that Toronto is taking on expiring contracts too.

Necas is still under team control through 2026. That's a big difference between him and Nylander in this deal.

Dealing a pending UFA for a pending UFA (Skjei/Pesce for Nylander) as a base makes sense. Adding a 70 point wing with 3 more years of team control does not.

 

[mydnyte]

?That Aho contract sure does help Toronto

They can hold firm and say you are not getting and 8 figure AAV

Aho is getting 9.750 and you somehow think Nylander gets under 8
ideally Nylander should get less than Aho, as Aho plays C and is defensively sound, but Nylander and Aho have very similar offensive stats, and the Leafs offense is more spread around, where Carolina's centers around Aho.

Nylander will get 9+, but should get less than Aho.

 

[mydnyte]

I think if Nylander is seeking $10 million paper season then his trade value is pretty low. Can't imagine many teams think a butter soft winger (albeit very talented) is worth that.

hot playing a physical style does not make any player 'soft'
Nylander is more fit and stronger than many players, he just doesnt use it, and shying away from contact is 'normal' ...only a fool intentionally trys to get hit.
He's definitely not OV who initiates contact, but, he doesnt give up the puck and curl away either, he just avoids contact

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Necas is still under team control through 2026. That's a big difference between him and Nylander in this deal.

Dealing a pending UFA for a pending UFA (Skjei/Pesce for Nylander) as a base makes sense. Adding a 70 point wing with 3 more years of team control does not.

Depends a lot on what Necas wants.

Any news on his asking price?

I would personally say there is a pretty large gap between soon to be 29 year old Pesce/29 year old Skjei vs 27 year old Nylander who just scored 40g. I don't know how you make up that difference in a way that Canes fans won't find painful.

 

[mydnyte]

Hanfin would be the 7th d on the leafs behind Rielly, McCabe ( need him on PK ) and Gio ( leadership and still
Close to Hanfin )

Defensively, I'd have Hanifin ahead of Brodie as our 'best' as Brodie has lost a step (and is weaker physically)
Offensively, he'd be 3rd (of the starters) behind Reilly, and Kling
McCabe is a bottom 4 defender and Gio is a bottom pairing defender.
Hanifin is a top pairing defender

 

[Nico Hischier]

I think if Nylander is seeking $10 million paper season then his trade value is pretty low. Can't imagine many teams think a butter soft winger (albeit very talented) is worth that.

The rangers do. They are paying more for an even softer winger

 

[ML16]

What does everybody think nylander should return in a trade?

He is tricky to figure out, can play center and wing, but is mostly a winger.

Talented kid, but in for a huge raise also, near 10m mark.

Thoughts?

Considering the Leafs’ current cap and roster structures, the optimal way to use Nylander would be to leverage him into:

1) Cost-controlled ELC/RFA winger or RHD*;

2) Draft capital to replenish the Leafs’ depleted cupboard; at least 2 top-64 picks. Not necessarily first rounders though; the main asset should be a projectable top-6 F / top-3 D, so the added incentive shouldn’t be extravagant;

*Ideally include Brodie for another cost-controlled asset to gain further cap flexibility.

Domi - Matthew - Marner
RFA / Knies - Tavares - Bertuzzi
Knies / Holmberg - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Gambrell - Lafferty - Reaves

Rielly - RFA / Brodie
McCabe - Liljegren
Giordano - Klingberg/Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

 

[PensandCaps]

I think if Nylander is seeking $10 million paper season then his trade value is pretty low. Can't imagine many teams think a butter soft winger (albeit very talented) is worth that.

Nylander isn't butter soft, and with his production and cap inflation, 10Mil is fine for him.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Considering the Leafs’ current cap and roster structures, the optimal way to use Nylander would be to leverage him into:

1) Cost-controlled ELC/RFA winger or RHD*;

2) Draft capital to replenish the Leafs’ depleted cupboard; at least 2 top-64 picks. Not necessarily first rounders though; the main asset should be a projectable top-6 F / top-3 D, so the added incentive shouldn’t be extravagant;

*Ideally include Brodie for another cost-controlled asset to gain further cap flexibility.

Domi - Matthew - Marner
RFA / Knies - Tavares - Bertuzzi
Knies / Holmberg - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Gambrell - Lafferty - Reaves

Rielly - RFA / Brodie
McCabe - Liljegren
Giordano - Klingberg/Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

I don't disagree. If I deal Nylander, I am hoping we get a quantity for quality deal to fill multiple needs.

 

[Chrispy]

Depends a lot on what Necas wants.

Any news on his asking price?

I would personally say there is a pretty large gap between soon to be 29 year old Pesce/29 year old Skjei vs 27 year old Nylander who just scored 40g. I don't know how you make up that difference in a way that Canes fans won't find painful.

Asking price is not clear at this point. I'm confident Carolina would like to lock up Necas long-term given he's only 25 next off-season and they can sign him for 7-8 years without getting much into his mid-30s like you would with Nylander, or Pesce, or Skjei.

In general, Carolina is much more likely to sign Necas for 8 years for age 25-33, which will include some lower cost RFA years, than they are to trade for a pending UFA wing like Nylander and sign him for more money for 7-8 UFA years for age 28-34/35.

Finally, you can argue there is a large gap between a top pairing caliber D and a 40g wing, but that gap is lessened significantly by the fact you only get a guaranteed year of any of them.

 

[Hookslide]

Hanfin would be the 7th d on the leafs behind Rielly, McCabe ( need him on PK ) and Gio ( leadership and still
Close to Hanfin )

Unbiased Fan ............umm

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Depends a lot on what Necas wants.

Any news on his asking price?

I would personally say there is a pretty large gap between soon to be 29 year old Pesce/29 year old Skjei vs 27 year old Nylander who just scored 40g. I don't know how you make up that difference in a way that Canes fans won't find painful.

Asking price is not clear at this point. I'm confident Carolina would like to lock up Necas long-term given he's only 25 next off-season and they can sign him for 7-8 years without getting much into his mid-30s like you would with Nylander, or Pesce, or Skjei.

In general, Carolina is much more likely to sign Necas for 8 years for age 25-33, which will include some lower cost RFA years, than they are to trade for a pending UFA wing like Nylander and sign him for more money for 7-8 UFA years for age 28-34/35.

Finally, you can argue there is a large gap between a top pairing caliber D and a 40g wing, but that gap is lessened significantly by the fact you only get a guaranteed year of any of them.

Cannot see Necas making more than Svech at $7.75m. Yes, the contracts are signed at different times and in different cap situations but Svech is Carolina's premier winger and Necas a year older with less a of a track record than Svech.

Should be something between $7-7.5AAV I would think. However if Necas has another monster year then maybe he can get matching contract or slightly more.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Cannot see Necas making more than Svech at $7.75m. Yes, the contracts are signed at different times and in different cap situations but Svech is Carolina's premier winger and Necas a year older with less a of a track record than Svech.

Should be something between $7-7.5AAV I would think. However if Necas has another monster year then maybe he can get matching contract or slightly more.

7m on what term?

Unbiased Fan ............umm

unbaised fan is a Leaf troll disguising himself as a Leaf fan. Easy block decsision imo.

 

[ZEBROA]

Aho is getting 9.750 and you somehow think Nylander gets under 8
ideally Nylander should get less than Aho, as Aho plays C and is defensively sound, but Nylander and Aho have very similar offensive stats, and the Leafs offense is more spread around, where Carolina's centers around Aho.

Nylander will get 9+, but should get less than Aho.

Some want him to take 8mill. The problem is that every top player on Leafs should get less, but when thats not been the case its hard to give Nylander scorer 5-6 mill less then Matthews even with matthews being better on D and a center.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Why should Nylander get significantly less than Aho?

COL higher in Toronto, and his production is basically dead even with Aho. He's a winger, that's the one thing that should be a hit against his number.

Aho is getting 9.8 until he's 36 years old. I would love to see Nylander come in at 9x5 and line his deal up with the rest of the core. I don't think that's realistic though, probably have to pay him in those older years.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Considering the Leafs’ current cap and roster structures, the optimal way to use Nylander would be to leverage him into:

1) Cost-controlled ELC/RFA winger or RHD*;

2) Draft capital to replenish the Leafs’ depleted cupboard; at least 2 top-64 picks. Not necessarily first rounders though; the main asset should be a projectable top-6 F / top-3 D, so the added incentive shouldn’t be extravagant;

*Ideally include Brodie for another cost-controlled asset to gain further cap flexibility.

Domi - Matthew - Marner
RFA / Knies - Tavares - Bertuzzi
Knies / Holmberg - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Gambrell - Lafferty - Reaves

Rielly - RFA / Brodie
McCabe - Liljegren
Giordano - Klingberg/Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

If you are getting magic beans for Nylander than you keep him and let him walk in free agency and sign another winger to be the 2nd line RW.
Leafs cupboard is not that depleted considering they have 3/4 top six wingers under contract and 4 bottom six wingers under contract for next season with 33.5 million in cap space. The Leafs have a large number of prospects who's floor is at least bottom 6 player that will be ready for NHL action over the next 2 years. They only need 2 or 3 of them to stick and it leaves then with 30 million in cap space.
Even if Nylander signs for 10 million that is 20 million in cap space for 1 top 6 forward, 2 defensive dmen for their top 4 and a goalie. If Woll goes from a back up 1B to a 1A then they only need to spend around 2 million for a back up 1B and it leaves around 18 million to sign 3 players. 6 million each for a top 6 winger, 2 defensive dman should be pretty easy to do.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

7m on what term?


unbaised fan is a Leaf troll disguising himself as a Leaf fan. Easy block decsision imo.

Why should Nylander get significantly less than Aho?

COL higher in Toronto, and his production is basically dead even with Aho. He's a winger, that's the one thing that should be a hit against his number.

Aho is getting 9.8 until he's 36 years old. I would love to see Nylander come in at 9x5 and line his deal up with the rest of the core. I don't think that's realistic though, probably have to pay him in those older years.

Canes always push for max term deals with players when possible (Aho, Svech, JK). Even Slavin was a 7 year deal and Pesce was 6 years and this was done a year prior to them needing a new deal.

Don't know if something like $7.5 would be on a 5,6,7, or 8 year deal but Canes will certainly push for as much term as possible and they usually get it. Aho was the one example where he, like Matthews, adamantly wanted a 5 year deal coming off of RFA.

One point of Nyalnder v Aho production (because it's been beaten to death in other threads)... Nylander had a better offensive year than Aho last year, but for the entirety of their careers, Aho has been a better producing player with lower tier linemates in general. Maybe this trend continues but the track record shows that Aho has decisively put up better numbers over the course of their careers. And then you have the fact that he's a C, defensive stud, plays in all situations, etc.

To be clear, I think Nylander should get his $9m from someone.

 

[Breakers]

Aho is getting 9.750 and you somehow think Nylander gets under 8
ideally Nylander should get less than Aho, as Aho plays C and is defensively sound, but Nylander and Aho have very similar offensive stats, and the Leafs offense is more spread around, where Carolina's centers around Aho.

Nylander will get 9+, but should get less than Aho.

Read again
8 “figure” AAV.

Not $8 million AAV

 

[57special]

Recent signings (Aho, Bratt) seem to suggest that the rule of thumb these days is 100,000 X recent of average point total.

Nylander has 82 points last season and a career 82 game average of 68.

I don't think he is a $10M man and he won't get that from Treliving. I suspect other GM's will feel the same way.

So, any sign and extend before a trade or trade, then sign will most likely come in below $10M.

I feel a lot of people over value William because they think he is going to get $10M.

I think Nylander feels that he is worth 10M because of the salaries of the people around him on his team. He is right up there, or at least close to, Tavares, Marner, and Matthews when you factor in playoffs, and his less favorable usage, and they all make 11+M/yr.

I am not saying he is worth 10M on the open market, but i am saying i see how he can get that impression.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

≥ PLD

PLD deal was based around LA being able to move back quality assets with significant contract $'s to WIN. Also, PLD is a big-body, two way center with some bite which has significantly more trade value. I don't see a team that has a similar type of asset package that LA sent to WIN to trade for WN.

He won't be traded, unless it's for a severe overpayment, why would they?

If I had to estimate his value, it would be a proven #1D man plus a top 15 first round pick

Personally, I'd rather have Nylander as opposed to marner or Matthews

Just throwing a silly offer out there, how about askarov + Nashville's 2024 first round pick....even then I think Nashville needs to add something small

Can you point me to the last winger who was traded for a #1 dman + 1st round DP? Then factor in that WN is one year from UFA eligibility, and given his history is likely to want to maximize his contract value (nothing wrong with that BTW).