Nylander - In round 2 doing his thing.

[MAB1]

Do whatever they can to re-sign him. I'd accept any amount he wants under $10 million. He will be a 45-50 goal, 90-100 point player as the focal point of another team. If the Leafs & Canes flop in round 1 or 2 and he wants more than $10 million I'd shop him and see if the Canes would be interested in a Slavin-Nylander trade (2 years left for Slavin vs 1 for Nylander after this year, but the Canes could also discuss extending him prior to trade)

 

[ULF_55]

If predictive analysis works, my guess would be that the bookies use it to set their lines in which cases they're the ones who's steady income is guaranteed.

I'm curious how it all works out in winning the Cup?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm curious how it all works out in winning the Cup?

If you mean how the odds set by the bookies correlate to who wins then I suspect it's the same as who wins the Presidents trophy - the favorites don't often win, but they win more often than all the other options.

 

[Notsince67]

Bunting-Matthews-Marner xgf% during the regular season : 57.3%

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander xgf% during the regular season : 56.7%

With Marner they are way better defensively. With Nylander they are way better offensively

Nylander's xgf% over the regular season 5v5: 56.4%

Marner's xgf% over the regular season 5v5: 56%

Uh-oh that's not good. xgf% says Nylander was the better player this season 5v5 and was third best on the team only behind Matthews and Brodie.

So I guess over a substantial sample size we are all ready to say 5 on 5 Nylander was the third best contributor to wins on the team with Bunting being 5th and Marner being 6th right?

You want to compare samples against different teams and games and times?
I compared intra game.
You realize that you can't mix the two in direct comparison. You need a who lot more data to do that.
Look at GAR and SPAR to look at player impact if you really think Willy is a better player.


Anyone who has any scruples says Willy played a crap game. Look at his minutes. Keefe started to hold him back. He was awful. Horrible.
Tavares numbers rose as soon as he was relieved. Matthews fell. Some reprieve in the end bit he was a liability for most of the game.
I don't know why there is so much effort to gaslight what happened 1 night ago.

And don't get me started on the whole Marner vs Nylander comparison. You really want to compare performances between the 2 players? . I responded initially to a nylander lover fanatic who loves to disparage Marner. A person who has so little knowledge about the game it is embarrassing.
Don't be that guy.

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander definitely had a rocky start to last night's game - but imo one ofnhis biggest strengths was on display by the end which is the ability to just block out all external noise.

He shook off the bad vibes around his game and focused on being a game breaker - and it showed on the scoreboard.

This will always frustrate some - which is fair - but the Leafs don't win last night without him

 

[Confucius]

You need sample size. I could easily point out now that Marner is a ppg playoff performer. He has the highest playoff points on the roster followed by Matthews. "Never" doesn't make a lot of sense for leaders given a 43 game sample size.

The whole playoff system doesn’t offer a big enough sample size, that’s why as exciting as it is the Cup winner isn’t necessarily the best team. They were the best team for this set of playoffs. If it were possible to redo them again you absolutely would get different winners.

I did chuckle at a stat one of the panel brought up, regarding wins on home Ice. Apparently last year the home team won 61% of the games, this year it is 39% big swing for a single season. But over the bigger sample size of 2 seasons combined perhaps we get a truer stat… it’s 50 50. Lol

 

[Notsince67]

The whole playoff system doesn’t offer a big enough sample size, that’s why as exciting as it is the Cup winner isn’t necessarily the best team. They were the best team for this set of playoffs. If it were possible to redo them again you absolutely would get different winners.

I did chuckle at a stat one of the panel brought up, regarding wins on home Ice. Apparently last year the home team won 61% of the games, this year it is 39% big swing for a single season. But over the bigger sample size of 2 seasons combined perhaps we get a truer stat… it’s 50 50. Lol

There were pretty easy stats to see performance in a game. Nylanders line didn't even have a shot the whole first period

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

You want to compare samples against different teams and games and times?
I compared intra game.
You realize that you can't mix the two in direct comparison. You need a who lot more data to do that.
Look at GAR and SPAR to look at player impact if you really think Willy is a better player.


Anyone who has any scruples says Willy played a crap game. Look at his minutes. Keefe started to hold him back. He was awful. Horrible.
Tavares numbers rose as soon as he was relieved. Matthews fell. Some reprieve in the end bit he was a liability for most of the game.
I don't know why there is so much effort to gaslight what happened 1 night ago.

And don't get me started on the whole Marner vs Nylander comparison. You really want to compare performances between the 2 players? . I responded initially to a nylander lover fanatic who loves to disparage Marner. A person who has so little knowledge about the game it is embarrassing.
Don't be that guy.

You're echoing my point exactly. xgf% isn't everything. Yeah i think everyone can agree Nylander had a horrible 40 minutes just like 90% of the team. Did we win? Yes. Was Nylander a KEY factor in the win? Absolutely.

Tavares xgf% numbers rose when he was removed from Nylander? Hurray! Give JT the xgf% Conn Smythe trophy and keep him away from Willy for the rest of eternity. You know what happened when Nylander was removed from Tavares? He started putting up points that directly helped the Leafs come back from a 4-1 deficit. Even drew a fantastic penalty in OT that helped seal the deal. If people want to celebrate JT's xgf% in one corner they can go right ahead and do so. I'll celebrate Willy's 3 assists that directly lead to the Leafs improbable comeback in my corner.

 

[Gabriel426]

Can we save all these comparisons, negative and stuff till after the playoffs. Bc I am 100% certain even if we win the Cup, there will still be plenty of negative stuff.
Just want to think positive for Game 5 and get that 4th W in a series

 

[Notsince67]

You're echoing my point exactly. xgf% isn't everything. Yeah i think everyone can agree Nylander had a horrible 40 minutes just like 90% of the team. Did we win? Yes. Was Nylander a KEY factor in the win? Absolutely.

Tavares xgf% numbers rose when he was removed from Nylander? Hurray! Give JT the xgf% Conn Smythe trophy and keep him away from Willy for the rest of eternity. You know what happened when Nylander was removed from Tavares? He started putting up points that directly helped the Leafs come back from a 4-1 deficit. Even drew a fantastic penalty in OT that helped seal the deal. If people want to celebrate JT's xgf% in one corner they can go right ahead and do so. I'll celebrate Willy's 3 assists that directly lead to the Leafs improbable comeback in my corner.

I've said a number of times that the Leafs need him to be good. Do not think that I am cheering against him. I want him to do well and I want the Leafs to re sign him. Couldnt care less for how much. He isn't easy to replace when he us going. My only point was his game was sub par and the Marner comment was only meant for a known Marner hater. The last thing I want is a comparison. It just causes dumb battles that really isn't fair to Nylander.

 

[Sniper99]

I would rather create cap space for McDavid. Chances of McDavid leaving EDM is almost set in stone. My choice would be to trade him but if that doesn't happen let him walk.

Based on what? Jesus, I wish people would give up on this shit. Would I love to see him in blue and white? Duh but until his contract is up and there are actual signs from the hockey guys in the media not delusional "my opinions" "my sources" im not buying into any bullshit from the HF crowd.

There are other places he could go to as well. How about we focus on our guys who will be hitting FA around that time too.

 

[The Best Leafs Everr]

Based on what? Jesus, I wish people would give up on this shit. Would I love to see him in blue and white? Duh but until his contract is up and there are actual signs from the hockey guys in the media not delusional "my opinions" "my sources" im not buying into any bullshit from the HF crowd.

There are other places he could go to as well. How about we focus on our guys who will be hitting FA around that time too.

Yea not if your guys sign the NMC contracts, if we win a cup before that I would wholeheartedly shove that idea to the side of not chasing McDavid. ROR also didn't want to come here when he hit the FA, the times have changed. Look at the last few years and think how many Toronto fanboys have come to play here even at heavy discounts. Especially after Tavares signing.

If you don't leave room for him to come here of course he might not think about coming here or leave EDM but I have a strong belief that he will want to come here and play for the city. It's their also their dream and wish that Toronto gets a cup growing up.

It all depends on how much Nylander wants as a FA. If he wants max payout, let him go, if he wants 8 year with a discounted payout, sign him. I would rather try to sign a generational palyer who might want to come here and play and look like a fool than sign a top 6 winger that might be replaceable with a less offensive 2-way forward that amounts to the same output if McDavid doesn't come.

 

[Antropovsky]

You want to compare samples against different teams and games and times?
I compared intra game.
You realize that you can't mix the two in direct comparison. You need a who lot more data to do that.
Look at GAR and SPAR to look at player impact if you really think Willy is a better player.


Anyone who has any scruples says Willy played a crap game. Look at his minutes. Keefe started to hold him back. He was awful. Horrible.
Tavares numbers rose as soon as he was relieved. Matthews fell. Some reprieve in the end bit he was a liability for most of the game.
I don't know why there is so much effort to gaslight what happened 1 night ago.

And don't get me started on the whole Marner vs Nylander comparison. You really want to compare performances between the 2 players? . I responded initially to a nylander lover fanatic who loves to disparage Marner. A person who has so little knowledge about the game it is embarrassing.
Don't be that guy.

Sounds like you know your analytics...what are the offensive stats for the leafs big 5 individually (oreilly, marner, Matthews, nylander, Tavares). It would he very interesting to see who having the biggest impact on the series offensively.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If Willy fixed some of his “deficiencies” like his defensive game or lack of effort at times he’d straight up be a 10M player.

At this point in his career we know what he is, a game breaking offensive talent with an elite transition game who leaves a lot to be desired in the defensive zone. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night but he made it up by generating 3 goals for, a net positive.

Kinda funny watching the first PP unit struggle to gain the zone and then Nylander just effortlessly skates it in with the second unit.

Low expected goals, high real goals - which do you prefer?


I've seen the arguments that he was 'responsible' for two goals against, but I haven't seen anything more than biased opinion as evidence. And it's still a matter of five players on the ice, but he's solely responsible and the only one with a bad xgf?

Again last night, two periods playing with Tavares and he is terrible, and after they are split up he leads to comeback,so he must be the problem.

Both our PP goals not only scored after he came on, but he assisted on both.

 

[ZEBROA]

Most times Tavares and Nylander are about equally bad together and equally good apart(depending on game and what u are looking at) . Just keep them apart. Nylander might drag down the D a bit. Bit his offensive flashes can win games. They are way less when playing with Tavares(unless it is a pp).

 

[Confucius]

There were pretty easy stats to see performance in a game. Nylanders line didn't even have a shot the whole first period

Well he only was on the ice for 8:51 for the 1st 2 periods, don’t remember how much he played in the first but I saw it off and guess 4:26. Not a big deal really considering the 4 minute sample size.

 

[Notsince67]

Almost 6 minutes

Well he only was on the ice for 8:51 for the 1st 2 periods, don’t remember how much he played in the first but I saw it off and guess 4:26. Not a big deal really considering the 4 minute sample size.

 

[DarkKnight]

Mirtle on 1050 highlighting how bad Nylander has been defensively last two games. I don’t understand why objective truths are slagging a guy. All I ever ask from Bill is maximum effort, when it isn’t there, I shit him on every time, and we don’t accept that with others, so he isn’t immune from criticism for his defence.

 

[Confucius]

Almost 6 minutes

Well in 8 minutes of 3rd and OT he got 3 points. All about sample size.

 

[m1ker]

Keefe also gave Marner Knies to go with Tavares. I think thats a big deal that most are missing when they try to blame Nylander for the poor performance of Kerfoot and Tavares

 

[Gabriel426]

Can’t do anything now since he is the poster boy for the Sweden tour, lol.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Well he only was on the ice for 8:51 for the 1st 2 periods, don’t remember how much he played in the first but I saw it off and guess 4:26. Not a big deal really considering the 4 minute sample size.

He's trying to make it sound really bad.

First, Toronto only had five shots in the first - one each by Matthews, Marner, Kampf, Gio, and Schenn. Matthews' was on the PP (with Willy on the ice), and Mitch's was on the PK. So we had three shots at even strength (so with normal lines), and two were by the defencemen.

One even strength shot in the period by a forward - Kampf!

Second, why is it suddenly "Nylander's line" instead of Tavares'? Just because they didn't get a shot?

Willy had only 4:07 ice time in the first, including only 0:34 PP time. JT had 4:38 with a full 2:00 PP time. Shouldn't we be more worried about JT not getting a shot?

 

[DarkKnight]

Keefe today was saying when Willie is on you just throw him over the boards, but then alluded to what he’s been of late and not feeling comfortable with his play, sheltering him. I noticed last game Keefe was actually skipping over his line in the rotation, which is pretty bad, so hopefully with a new line he finds his form. With his talent, he will always be dangerous, it’s a question of him being a liability at times and Keefe seems to see it too, so I’m not sure it’s really debatable. I want to see first 2/3 of season Bill, hunting pucks and winning battles to get out of our end. We’re almost unstoppable should that version re-emerge, he’s a game breaker.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Nylander should start trying like World Championship style Styles

 

[ULF_55]

Well he only was on the ice for 8:51 for the 1st 2 periods, don’t remember how much he played in the first but I saw it off and guess 4:26. Not a big deal really considering the 4 minute sample size.

7 minutes of even strength ice time over first 2 periods.