Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[ToneDog]

What a world this has become, when people attribute "affinity" to a discussion, and have to label people, instead of having a logical discussion.

The logical thing to do, is ice the best team you can. If we look at the alternatives to Marner, and say, ya that could be better, you go that route. If you look at the alternatives, and say.. man, that' dog crap... maybe you stay the course, even if it hasn't yielded the results some fans want.

We all understand the strengths and weaknesses of our current setup, but it should be logical to understand what the alternatives are, instead of throwing out the bath water blindly.

I proposed trades moving Marner last offseason.. I'm not married to the idea of keeping him... but I don't say... let's just let him walk, or just let Tavares walk... without looking at what the alternative options are.

For those who want to walk away from him, have an intelligent conversation about it... who are the replacements that make us better, and what if we miss out?

And this.. hey, we will just wait for McDavid idea.... when according to our fanbase we will lose in the First round repeatedly, while they go on deeper runs.... why sign for the team that doesn't do as well? It's a unfounded fantasy.

Most are not saying to just walk away. At what number do you walk away? $13m, $14m, $15m. You can't let this guy f*** you over again in negotiations. If he is reasonable and does well in the playoffs, sign him. Otherwise he can go elsewhere. They will still fill every seat in the building and sell tons of jerseys. Nothing to worry about.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I dont think those stats tell you much anyways, but the additional .66 goals created per game by McD over Matty alone is going to get you pretty close to explaining away the entire difference in sv% between the opposing tenders. We've faced some tough goaltending on the whole no doubt, thats obvious, but the bigger problem is the stars not producing.

Even if we erased the difference in McDavid's production, it wouldn't close the SV% gap. And what exactly is your point? That McDavid is an amazing playoff producer regardless? Yeah, I already noted how insanely good his production is even when factoring in opposing goaltending. There's a reason you're focusing on the 3rd best playoff producer in league history (behind only Gretzky and Lemieux), and not the rest of the list where the level of goaltending faced is much more relevant to how they rank. It's good that you're at least acknowledging the high level of goaltending we've faced, but you're still misallocating blame to the stars, who actually contribute to a higher percentage of the team's goals in the playoffs.

 

[Divine]

What a world this has become, when people attribute "affinity" to a discussion, and have to label people, instead of having a logical discussion.

The logical thing to do, is ice the best team you can. If we look at the alternatives to Marner, and say, ya that could be better, you go that route. If you look at the alternatives, and say.. man, that' dog crap... maybe you stay the course, even if it hasn't yielded the results some fans want.

We all understand the strengths and weaknesses of our current setup, but it should be logical to understand what the alternatives are, instead of throwing out the bath water blindly.

I proposed trades moving Marner last offseason.. I'm not married to the idea of keeping him... but I don't say... let's just let him walk, or just let Tavares walk... without looking at what the alternative options are.

For those who want to walk away from him, have an intelligent conversation about it... who are the replacements that make us better, and what if we miss out?

And this.. hey, we will just wait for McDavid idea.... when according to our fanbase we will lose in the First round repeatedly, while they go on deeper runs.... why sign for the team that doesn't do as well? It's a unfounded fantasy.

It's because we've had 5+ years of data points that spending 40M+ of your cap on 3 players doesn't work - but that's not enough - people want 13 years of data points before trying something different. At some point I think some people care more about who's wearing the jersey than the team.

The replacements don't necessarily have to make us better today. It gives us flexibility. We won't know if we're a better team until we do it. The Florida Panthers won the President's Trophy and shipped away the second top scorer in the NHL AND Weeger for Matthew Tkachuk. On paper, they become a worse team that day, but it ended up working out. If you're strung up on 1:1 replacement value, the closest you'd get is if Rantanen was interested.

McDavid's interest doesn't come from the fact the Leafs had playoff success. It comes from the fact that he's from here and says he loves Toronto and watching the Leafs. He got married here last summer and his wife and him are both from here. He's also made comments about how his family doesn't get to watch him much because it's a late start for them and they have to sleep. That's the angle you have to hope for with him. Essentially you're hoping he wants to be in Toronto similar to how Tavares wanted to be here (and still does) despite other options. Maybe he doesn't want to leave, but you have to put yourself in a position to be lucky - so I would maneuver as if it's a possibility.

 

[Fogelhund]

Most are not saying to just walk away. At what number do you walk away? $13m, $14m, $15m. You can't let this guy f*** you over again in negotiations. If he is reasonable and does well in the playoffs, sign him. Otherwise he can go elsewhere. They will still fill every seat in the building and sell tons of jerseys. Nothing to worry about.

That is the key. Does he, and we do well in the playoffs.

If we can find success, I'm less worried about the money. If we bomb out again, and he doesn't play well... then what?

Forgetting trades, what can we get for those $?

Let's suppose we believe we can have 100% success rate in signing UFA targets. Let's imagine that Capwages has accurate projections.

The best LW available, seems to be Ehlers... so we sign him at the 6 x $7.5 mil. The best RW's after Marner and Rantanen are Patrick Kane and Reilly Smith...$3.3 mil and $4.3 MIL.

Whether we could get Ehlers and Kane/Smith, we'd be spending $10.8 to $11.8 on them. Is that combo better than just Marner? It's different for sure... I'm not sure better, but it's more depth, which is good. No matter whether you say $13, 14, 15 mil is your bottom line, it also likely still leaves room to add more quality. Cap wages has Marner at 8 x $12.567m, which I don't think is a crazy hit for him. Personally, I'd aim for a contract equal to Nylander's, and would go as high as that projection. If he's much above that, it's a nah from me.

Of course the risk is always that these options are available to us, but we also don't know who might become available by trade either. If we don't make it past the first round, then I think we need to consider changes... but then, that was my thinking last year too... and I had suggested moving Marner for Bjork + Wright + 1st...

 

[Dekes For Days]

We haven't lost for 8 years because we are getting goalied each time.

Nobody said we did. We've been "goalied" in 4 out of our 9 series.

For the record, McDavid and Drai lit up the same vezina level goaltending that shit all over us in the second round.

No they didn't. They faced the same goalie a year later when he wasn't playing very well, and while McDavid did well, Draisaitl only had 3 points in 7 games.
What actually happened after beating us in the second round was Bobrovsky putting up a 0.966 SV% to sweep Carolina.

 

[Leafs87]

Marner baby leak. Pretty sure he lost leverage with the “willing to leave if I’m not getting overpaid”. He’s from Toronto and I doubt he’d wanna leave now if all times

 

[mclaren55]

Nobody said we did. We've been "goalied" in 4 out of our 9 series.

No they didn't. They faced the same goalie a year later when he wasn't playing very well, and while McDavid did well, Draisaitl only had 3 points in 7 games.
What actually happened after beating us in the second round was Bobrovsky putting up a 0.966 SV% to sweep Carolina.

Yea, and what was Bobs record against Boston, prior to playing us? Or after in the cup final that year against Vegas? You are just trying to manipulate a narrative, and that's cool. I just don't buy it.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Stanley Cup Finals or I let him walk. Plain and simple.

I'd also be talking to Reilly about moving him if possible, If he disagrees, I waive him.

This is long overdue. Cup Finals or let him walk. I might even suggest the same of JT.

 

[francis246]

Most are not saying to just walk away. At what number do you walk away? $13m, $14m, $15m. You can't let this guy f*** you over again in negotiations. If he is reasonable and does well in the playoffs, sign him. Otherwise he can go elsewhere. They will still fill every seat in the building and sell tons of jerseys. Nothing to worry about.

for me personally, any number over 13 would be my walk away. even over 12.5 I wouldn't love. The goal scoring isn't there and it's hard to blindly ignore. I just don't think he's worth that. I hope he falls in line between 12 and 12.5. Somewhere above Nylander but somewhere comfortably under Matthews. Chris Johnson was on Overdrive saying he doesn't believe Marner wants to be the highest paid leaf. So I think ultimately that number may end up lower than 13. But it might be a short term deal.

 

[ToneDog]

That is the key. Does he, and we do well in the playoffs.

If we can find success, I'm less worried about the money. If we bomb out again, and he doesn't play well... then what?

Forgetting trades, what can we get for those $?

Let's suppose we believe we can have 100% success rate in signing UFA targets. Let's imagine that Capwages has accurate projections.

The best LW available, seems to be Ehlers... so we sign him at the 6 x $7.5 mil. The best RW's after Marner and Rantanen are Patrick Kane and Reilly Smith...$3.3 mil and $4.3 MIL.

Whether we could get Ehlers and Kane/Smith, we'd be spending $10.8 to $11.8 on them. Is that combo better than just Marner? It's different for sure... I'm not sure better, but it's more depth, which is good. No matter whether you say $13, 14, 15 mil is your bottom line, it also likely still leaves room to add more quality. Cap wages has Marner at 8 x $12.567m, which I don't think is a crazy hit for him. Personally, I'd aim for a contract equal to Nylander's, and would go as high as that projection. If he's much above that, it's a nah from me.

Of course the risk is always that these options are available to us, but we also don't know who might become available by trade either. If we don't make it past the first round, then I think we need to consider changes... but then, that was my thinking last year too... and I had suggested moving Marner for Bjork + Wright + 1st...

Marner at 8 x $12.567m is more than acceptable. I'd go up to $12.8m if he'd take it. The issue is he wants close to Drasiatl money which is a non starter for me.

Stanley Cup Finals or I let him walk. Plain and simple.

I'd also be talking to Reilly about moving him if possible, If he disagrees, I waive him.

This is long overdue. Cup Finals or let him walk. I might even suggest the same of JT.

You set the bar way to high. My bar is ECF or enough is enough.

 

[ToneDog]

for me personally, any number over 13 would be my walk away. even over 12.5 I wouldn't love. The goal scoring isn't there and it's hard to blindly ignore. I just don't think he's worth that. I hope he falls in line between 12 and 12.5. Somewhere above Nylander but somewhere comfortably under Matthews. Chris Johnson was on Overdrive saying he doesn't believe Marner wants to be the highest paid leaf. So I think ultimately that number may end up lower than 13. But it might be a short term deal.

If he took $12.8m today, he'd win back a large part of the fan base that thinks he is greedy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yea, and what was Bobs record against Boston, prior to playing us? Or after in the cup final that year against Vegas? You are just trying to manipulate a narrative, and that's cool. I just don't buy it.

Goalies are streaky and run hot and cold, and Bobrovsky is somebody that tends to have even bigger swings than your average goalie. He started picking it up towards the end of the Boston series, was dominant against us, was even more dominant against Carolina, and then cooled off in the 10 day break before the finals. A goalie not sustaining an unsustainably dominant performance forever doesn't erase the dominant performance. Correcting your mistakes and acknowledging facts isn't manipulating a narrative.

 

[banks]

It's because we've had 5+ years of data points that spending 40M+ of your cap on 3 players doesn't work - but that's not enough - people want 13 years of data points before trying something different. At some point I think some people care more about who's wearing the jersey than the team.
...

We have had 5+ years that haven't worked. But what did we have before that? We had 10 years of no high-paid star players, and a roster trying to do it by committee. Sundin left in 2008, and our best forwards between him and this "40+M on 3 players" version of the Leafs were Kessel, Kadri, JVR, Bozak. That's 10 years of trying it your way. With forward depth instead of top-heavy on talent.

What we have now with actual talent is "trying something different" for long-sufering Leafs fans. And the results have been a whole lot better than the previous plan ever got.

And don't claim again that I'm saying "the team used to be so bad that I'm now happy with mediocrity" because that's garbage. I believe the team is more likely to win a Cup with Marner on the team than with Boeser and Mangiapane in his place. I don't think that's a crazy thing to suggest.

 

[Divine]

We have had 5+ years that haven't worked. But what did we have before that? We had 10 years of no high-paid star players, and a roster trying to do it by committee. Sundin left in 2008, and our best forwards between him and this "40+M on 3 players" version of the Leafs were Kessel, Kadri, JVR, Bozak. That's 10 years of trying it your way. With forward depth instead of top-heavy on talent.

What we have now with actual talent is "trying something different" for long-sufering Leafs fans. And the results have been a whole lot better than the previous plan ever got.

And don't claim again that I'm saying "the team used to be so bad that I'm now happy with mediocrity" because that's garbage. I believe the team is more likely to win a Cup with Marner on the team than with Boeser and Mangiapane in his place. I don't think that's a crazy thing to suggest.

No one is advocating for trading all 3 stars, are they?

The sweet spot for most teams seem to be 2 (at most) stars at forwards. We should try the same. Increase the depth, if we can, the third star could be at D. That would give us a much better rounded roster. We've tried the 3/4 stars at forwards eating all our cap, it didn't work.

I also was against giving Nylander 11.5M. I would have preferred Nylander over Marner at a lower cap hit but we jumped the gun and gave him 11.5M. Marner won't take less than Nylander, he's always pushing for Matthews money and having both him and Matthews seems like it will always be a problem when it comes to contracts as both of them want to be the highest paid players on the team every negotiation. Let Marner haggle another team for top dollar.

If Marner is pushing for 14M, it's clear he's no longer using comparables and just being unreasonable again. Draisaitl just signed an extension for 14M starting next year and he outscores Marner easily every year. I assume most people across the league would take Draisaitl over Marner 10 times out of 10 - most wouldn't even consider it close.

 

[mclaren55]

Goalies are streaky and run hot and cold, and Bobrovsky is somebody that tends to have even bigger swings than your average goalie. He started picking it up towards the end of the Boston series, was dominant against us, was even more dominant against Carolina, and then cooled off in the 10 day break before the finals. A goalie not sustaining an unsustainably dominant performance forever doesn't erase the dominant performance. Correcting your mistakes and acknowledging facts isn't manipulating a narrative.

Or maybe he wasn't as effective against hard forechecking teams that run/screen the front of the net vs. two teams that relied on transition primarily to drive offense?

Sure, all these goalies just round into form for our series and then "cool off" after or "heat up" prior. You aren't acknowledging any facts I put up, just crafting your narrative around it, as usual.

My whole argument is our guys (maybe the system) isn't as effective, and it makes goalies look superior when they aren't. I countered your narrative of ".966" for Bob, and you simply brush it off as "he wasn't in form yet, and then he cooled off". We are going to have to disagree with this, because the facts I provided for your counter argument are just as valid as the ones you provided in said counter argument.

 

[Fogelhund]

It's because we've had 5+ years of data points that spending 40M+ of your cap on 3 players doesn't work - but that's not enough - people want 13 years of data points before trying something different. At some point I think some people care more about who's wearing the jersey than the team.

The replacements don't necessarily have to make us better today. It gives us flexibility. We won't know if we're a better team until we do it. The Florida Panthers won the President's Trophy and shipped away the second top scorer in the NHL AND Weeger for Matthew Tkachuk. On paper, they become a worse team that day, but it ended up working out. If you're strung up on 1:1 replacement value, the closest you'd get is if Rantanen was interested.

McDavid's interest doesn't come from the fact the Leafs had playoff success. It comes from the fact that he's from here and says he loves Toronto and watching the Leafs. He got married here last summer and his wife and him are both from here. He's also made comments about how his family doesn't get to watch him much because it's a late start for them and they have to sleep. That's the angle you have to hope for with him. Essentially you're hoping he wants to be in Toronto similar to how Tavares wanted to be here (and still does) despite other options. Maybe he doesn't want to leave, but you have to put yourself in a position to be lucky - so I would maneuver as if it's a possibility.

The bottom line here, is how do we achieve our goals?

Again, if you read what I've read, I'm not proposing doing the exact same thing, I'm suggesting look before you leap.

Florida had a target player, who had 104 points the prior season, while playing a physical game that the Cats lacked. They moved two soon to be UFA's, they couldn't afford to sign. If we had the opportunity to move Marner, for a player like Matthew Tkachuk, in the offseason, of course you do that in a heartbeat. It was pretty unanimous that Florida won that trade from the onset.

I never once suggested 1:1 replacement value, and I'm wondering if Rantanen wasn't mostly a product of how good MacKinnon is... 3 points in 7 games in Carolina, and not looking all that good. I certainly wouldn't give Rantanen near his ask.

I proposed moving Marner last offseason... clearly it didn't happen, and I for one am amazed that Tre doesn't read these boards and respect my trade ideas.... but seriously, it is still important to look at the options, figure out how likely you would be to sign such players, and weigh the odds. First though... the playoffs, because if we win the cup, and Marner is the scoring leader, this is a conversation that is a waste of time.

...and this idea of McDavid coming here is a fantasy, and the reality is, if he came here, it's likely to play WITH Marner... who he had some chemistry in the end with. In all probability, if it's McDavid came, you'd have to move Nylander or Matthews....

 

[mclaren55]

The bottom line here, is how do we achieve our goals?

Again, if you read what I've read, I'm not proposing doing the exact same thing, I'm suggesting look before you leap.

Florida had a target player, who had 104 points the prior season, while playing a physical game that the Cats lacked. They moved two soon to be UFA's, they couldn't afford to sign. If we had the opportunity to move Marner, for a player like Matthew Tkachuk, in the offseason, of course you do that in a heartbeat. It was pretty unanimous that Florida won that trade from the onset.

I never once suggested 1:1 replacement value, and I'm wondering if Rantanen wasn't mostly a product of how good MacKinnon is... 3 points in 7 games in Carolina, and not looking all that good. I certainly wouldn't give Rantanen near his ask.

I proposed moving Marner last offseason... clearly it didn't happen, and I for one am amazed that Tre doesn't read these boards and respect my trade ideas.... but seriously, it is still important to look at the options, figure out how likely you would be to sign such players, and weigh the odds. First though... the playoffs, because if we win the cup, and Marner is the scoring leader, this is a conversation that is a waste of time.

...and this idea of McDavid coming here is a fantasy, and the reality is, if he came here, it's likely to play WITH Marner... who he had some chemistry in the end with. In all probability, if it's McDavid came, you'd have to move Nylander or Matthews....

No it wasn't, initially everyone was saying Calgary won it due to Tkachuk being vocal about leaving and they got back a decent D and, at the time, a pretty great forward. It was only in hindsight after the fact when Hubey fell off a cliff that most capitulated and said Florida won it.

 

[francis246]

If he took $12.8m today, he'd win back a large part of the fan base that thinks he is greedy.

I think so too. At the end of the day we all want the same thing which is to win. If things don’t work, I’m all for breaking it up. I would have just preferred to trade Marner for things of value back instead of walking him to UFA. With UFA there’s just so many unknown variables. It is more scary.

I just dislike being called a Marner whatever for having a differing opinion. Thanks for the reasonable discourse lately.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I don’t care what the results are. If you let Marner walk that’s a fireable offence.

 

[Menzinger]

Dreger hinted that the Leafs are going to go for it this year because Marner may look into FA on July 1.

Mirtle has also said he doesn't expect a Marner deal to get settled until July - and that includes if he extends with the Leafs.

Could see a similar situation as to what happened with Stamkos in 2016, where the player goes out and talks to a bunch of different teams before making his decision

 

[robertmac43]

Mirtle has also said he doesn't expect a Marner deal to get settled until July - and that includes if he extends with the Leafs.

Could see a similar situation as to what happened with Stamkos in 2016, where the player goes out and talks to a bunch of different teams before making his decision

I don't blame him either - might as well see what the open market is saying before coming back...

As long as we don't handle things like the Giants did with Saquon Barkley lol.

 

[Fogelhund]

No it wasn't, initially everyone was saying Calgary won it due to Tkachuk being vocal about leaving and they got back a decent D and, at the time, a pretty great forward. It was only in hindsight after the fact when Hubey fell off a cliff that most capitulated and said Florida won it.

Indeed, it does look like a lot of fans thought Calgary won the trade.. I'm only recalling my thoughts on it I guess. Florida had just been handled by Tampa and lost 4-0, and needed to change their identity. It's not much different than if we bomb this playoffs, and trade Marner for Brady Tkachuk, to change our identity.

Mirtle has also said he doesn't expect a Marner deal to get settled until July - and that includes if he extends with the Leafs.

Could see a similar situation as to what happened with Stamkos in 2016, where the player goes out and talks to a bunch of different teams before making his decision

That's a bad situation for the Leafs.... if he goes elsewhere after July 1st, most of the other options will have been scooped up. If he doesn't sign by then, I would think we'd have to go in a different direction.

 

[Sypher04]

That's a bad situation for the Leafs.... if he goes elsewhere after July 1st, most of the other options will have been scooped up. If he doesn't sign by then, I would think we'd have to go in a different direction.

100%. If he isn’t re-signing here by July 1, that’s that most likely. Can’t risk him walking and getting shutout on the rest of FA.

I’m sure Marner will know the market before July 1st open anyway.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If he took $12.8m today, he'd win back a large part of the fan base that thinks he is greedy.

Not me. He needs to perform like a star in the playoffs to win me over and there's no way in hell I would give him that deal before the playoffs.

Last two playoff series he has 6 points in 14 games. An 8 year deal for 12.8 the potential to look like the worst contract in Maple Leaf history before it even takes effect. Say good bye to regular season wonder boy and keep cap flexibility as long as there's a chance that McDavid wants to come home.

 

[ToneDog]

100%. If he isn’t re-signing here by July 1, that’s that most likely. Can’t risk him walking and getting shutout on the rest of FA.

I’m sure Marner will know the market before July 1st open anyway.

Tre has to figure out who to target and get it done like he did last summer with Tanev, Stolarz and OEL to a lesser degree. If Bennett is his man, he can trade for his rights before July 1 and work out a deal that works for both.