Nylander - In round 2 doing his thing.

[Cap'n Flavour]

ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization

This is crazy, we gotta stop playing Marner with Bozak and JVR.

Anyway, Marner was also terrible for the first half and change of the game but for some reason everyone comes in to pile hot takes on Nylander.

 

[Jojalu]

I get he plays better with Matthews but even that pairing last night resulted in around 45% xgf%.
Matthews numbers stayed out of quicksand statistically in the moments Marner was on the ice during the shifts. Interestingly, Tavares numbers soars shortly after getting away from Nylander. His game was lousy and the few posters here that were disparaging Tavares for Nylanders performance were dead wrong. I know Nylander can play and he was involved in late game heroics. More than 85% of the game however had him playing anchor and he needs to do better.
He is one of the best players on the team and he cant be playing at the bottom of the pile.

The problem with xgf in a game/period and sometimes series is that it doesn't dictate how something will turn out.

Long term I believe it is very helpful but really in the end it's the actual results that matter.

When Marner and Matthews were all over Montreal and couldn't score the xgf meant nothing.

I am happy for Marner and Matthews this year because forcall the times they were great and nothing went in it is evening out a little this series.

Nylander has a knack for being big at crucial times. You can't quantify it or make an equation.

It just happens time and time again.

He for sure hasn't been the Leafs best player,, but they are not up 3-1 without him

 

[studebaker17]

Wow thank u!

This is crazy, we gotta stop playing Marner with Bozak and JVR.

Anyway, Marner was also terrible for the first half and change of the game but for some reason everyone comes in to pile hot takes on Nylander.

Ha, ha
I hate it for that. The 1st time i Book marked the web site is the same page it brings me back to which was that game against Boston years ago.
You have to change the game to whatever game you want to look at.

 

[sxvnert]

Unfortunately If Dubas is still around he'll pay him whatever he wants. I would prefer trading him and using that cap elsewhere.

 

[meefer]

My thoughts on Willy Styles...I hope we win on Thursday.

 

[Notsince67]

The problem with xgf in a game/period and sometimes series is that it doesn't dictate how something will turn out.

Long term I believe it is very helpful but really in the end it's the actual results that matter.

When Marner and Matthews were all over Montreal and couldn't score the xgf meant nothing.

I am happy for Marner and Matthews this year because forcall the times they were great and nothing went in it is evening out a little this series.

Nylander has a knack for being big at crucial times. You can't quantify it or make an equation.

It just happens time and time again.

He for sure hasn't been the Leafs best player,, but they are not up 3-1 without him

Scoring isn't an indicator of performance although there is a correlation. The frequency of goals are just not large enough to make a determination. Weighted shots for and against are far from perfect but are much more predictive of future performance and hence a better measure. Kerfoot got the game winner but he isn't winning the Con Smyth nor will he be a first or second team all star. These micro stats might mean nothing to those who only care about wins and loses but you can get that thrill at a casino where luck plays a bigger part. Just don't pretend you know about the game of hockey if you can't understand what drives the game beyond luck.

 

[ULF_55]

Scoring isn't an indicator of performance although there is a correlation. The frequency of goals are just not large enough to make a determination. Weighted shots for and against are far from perfect but are much more predictive of future performance and hence a better measure. Kerfoot got the game winner but he isn't winning the Con Smyth nor will he be a first or second team all star. These micro stats might mean nothing to those who only care about wins and loses but you can get that thrill at a casino where luck plays a bigger part. Just don't pretend you know about the game of hockey if you can't understand what drives the game beyond luck.

Yeah, the top 3 players for the Leafs in the playoffs results year after year are Matthews, marner, Nylander at forward position. Rielly on defense.

Perhaps predictive stats bear that out?

 

[Jojalu]

Scoring isn't an indicator of performance although there is a correlation. The frequency of goals are just not large enough to make a determination. Weighted shots for and against are far from perfect but are much more predictive of future performance and hence a better measure. Kerfoot got the game winner but he isn't winning the Con Smyth nor will he be a first or second team all star. These micro stats might mean nothing to those who only care about wins and loses but you can get that thrill at a casino where luck plays a bigger part. Just don't pretend you know about the game of hockey if you can't understand what drives the game beyond luck.

Which is why I said in a single game it is less predictive of what is going to happen.

Luck plays a part of the result of games and there is no way to measure it.

I stated that it is a great tool for long term measurement.

It just so happens that Matthews and Marner's xgf% has never translated to actually winning games no matter how great it was.

In one game do or die you coukd give your team the best chance of winning by looking at the numbers but in the end it will either take a few bounces for or against to determine the outcome

 

[ruaware41]

If Nylander keeps turning up from this point on Leafs win the series.

 

[ULF_55]

Which is why I said in a single game it is less predictive of what is going to happen.

Luck plays a part of the result of games and there is no way to measure it.

I stated that it is a great tool for long term measurement.

It just so happens that Matthews and Marner's xgf% has never translated to actually winning games no matter how great it was.

In one game do or die you coukd give your team the best chance of winning by looking at the numbers but in the end it will either take a few bounces for or against to determine the outcome

So do gamblers who win use predictive analytics?

Probably should guarantee a steady income then. Right?

 

[Notsince67]

Which is why I said in a single game it is less predictive of what is going to happen.

Luck plays a part of the result of games and there is no way to measure it.

I stated that it is a great tool for long term measurement.

It just so happens that Matthews and Marner's xgf% has never translated to actually winning games no matter how great it was.

In one game do or die you coukd give your team the best chance of winning by looking at the numbers but in the end it will either take a few bounces for or against to determine the outcome

You need sample size. I could easily point out now that Marner is a ppg playoff performer. He has the highest playoff points on the roster followed by Matthews. "Never" doesn't make a lot of sense for leaders given a 43 game sample size.

 

[Jojalu]

I don't really understand your point. In no way am I saying anything negative about Marner or Matthews.

I have argued for years their play and results were not lining up.

They have been good for at least 3 straight runs. Better than good most nights.

 

[Jojalu]

You need sample size. I could easily point out now that Marner is a ppg playoff performer. He has the highest playoff points on the roster followed by Matthews. "Never" doesn't make a lot of sense for leaders given a 43 game sample size.

The "never" is just stating that the Leafs have never had success as a team.

I would say in the Montreal series and last year in TB that the results should have been way greater for the two of them.

They tilt the ice almost all the time and their xgf rarely matches what happened.

Except for this year. This year their puck luck is evening out

 

[Not My Tempo]

If Willy fixed some of his “deficiencies” like his defensive game or lack of effort at times he’d straight up be a 10M player.

At this point in his career we know what he is, a game breaking offensive talent with an elite transition game who leaves a lot to be desired in the defensive zone. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night but he made it up by generating 3 goals for, a net positive.

Kinda funny watching the first PP unit struggle to gain the zone and then Nylander just effortlessly skates it in with the second unit.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Scoring isn't an indicator of performance although there is a correlation. The frequency of goals are just not large enough to make a determination. Weighted shots for and against are far from perfect but are much more predictive of future performance and hence a better measure. Kerfoot got the game winner but he isn't winning the Con Smyth nor will he be a first or second team all star. These micro stats might mean nothing to those who only care about wins and loses but you can get that thrill at a casino where luck plays a bigger part. Just don't pretend you know about the game of hockey if you can't understand what drives the game beyond luck.

That's crazy. People actually care about thing other than wins and loses? Imagine saying with a straight face you care more about a teams xgf than you do them winning the game. If only we lost the two games but won the xgf battle! I'm sure Tampa is very happy with how their home stand turned out.

Anyway like I've said before xgf for one game is completely pointless. Matthews and Nylander at one point in the season had a 4.60 xgf. 1st in the league for any high usage line (min 200 minutes). That means much more to me then an xgf based on 1 and a half periods of play.

 

[kb]

Unfortunately If Dubas is still around he'll pay him whatever he wants. I would prefer trading him and using that cap elsewhere.

Surprise surprise....another shot at Dubas.

"Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt"

 

[Notsince67]

That's crazy. People actually care about thing other than wins and loses? Imagine saying with a straight face you care more about a teams xgf than you do them winning the game. If only we lost the two games but won the xgf battle! I'm sure Tampa is very happy with how their home stand turned out.

Anyway like I've said before xgf for one game is completely pointless. Matthews and Nylander at one point in the season had a 4.60 xgf. 1st in the league for any high usage line (min 200 minutes). That means much more to me then an xgf based on 1 and a half periods of play.

I used xgf% which is a 2 way measure

 

[Gabriel426]

So do gamblers who win use predictive analytics?

Probably should guarantee a steady income then. Right?

They do.
This is an example of Roulette. You can see a pattern emerge from some dealers who always roll the ball to the same side, thus the ball will most likely land between certain numbers and all you need to do is bet on those numbers and it will increase the chance of winning.
BlackJack is another example, there are the counting cards method and also the not hit when you have 12 nomatter what the dealer got method. The idea behind not hitting when you have 12 is that, you are playing the dealer to bust, bc if your hands is bust while the dealer also bust, you don't win anything.

 

[saffronleaf]

Led the Leafs with three points last night

 

[Antropovsky]

View attachment 696089
Good thing willy got icetime with Marner

Good thing willy got ice time with Marner... You mean good thing Marner got ice time with Nylander. Matthews and Marner looked dead in the water until Nylander came along. nylander was the play driver on all the plays he was on. L, which was three of the last 4 goals. If there is anyone who has the clutch gene its Nylander. For the bargain of 7 million. Haha and your complaining about people being hard on Marner?

 

[saffronleaf]

If Willy fixed some of his “deficiencies” like his defensive game or lack of effort at times he’d straight up be a 10M player.

At this point in his career we know what he is, a game breaking offensive talent with an elite transition game who leaves a lot to be desired in the defensive zone. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night but he made it up by generating 3 goals for, a net positive.

Kinda funny watching the first PP unit struggle to gain the zone and then Nylander just effortlessly skates it in with the second unit.

i was screaming for them to put the only guy we have who can guarantee a controlled zone entry when we were struggling so much to gain the zone on the PP

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs have many players that can enter the zone with the puck, just looks like Nylander does it with speed and backs off the defenders. Like on Matthews 1st last night. Matthews had a clear path to net.
Just doesn't work as well with Tavares. I think a speedy center with Nylander and Knies would work

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I used xgf% which is a 2 way measure

Bunting-Matthews-Marner xgf% during the regular season : 57.3%

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander xgf% during the regular season : 56.7%

With Marner they are way better defensively. With Nylander they are way better offensively

Nylander's xgf% over the regular season 5v5: 56.4%

Marner's xgf% over the regular season 5v5: 56%

Uh-oh that's not good. xgf% says Nylander was the better player this season 5v5 and was third best on the team only behind Matthews and Brodie.

So I guess over a substantial sample size we are all ready to say 5 on 5 Nylander was the third best contributor to wins on the team with Bunting being 5th and Marner being 6th right?

 

[NoName]

He has been really good this year and in the playoffs so far, so yes he is going to command a big price tag. If the team can't afford to resign him you under the cap, then they have to bite the bullet and trade him.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So do gamblers who win use predictive analytics?

Probably should guarantee a steady income then. Right?

If predictive analysis works, my guess would be that the bookies use it to set their lines in which cases they're the ones who's steady income is guaranteed.

My thoughts on Willy Styles...I hope we win on Thursday.

Love this post! That's pretty much how I feel about all our players.