Next Projected contracts for Nylander and Matthews after 2024

[LDN]

Matthews $15M
Nylander $9.5M

 

[Puckstuff]

Nylander will ask for 10 million, Matthews 14. One of them it appears has to go this summer.

Matthews $15M
Nylander $9.5M

If Matthews wants 15 million I'm trading him.

To L.A:

Matthews

To Toronto:

Danault
Fiala
Roy

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner @ 12M just out of curiosity, why do you think Marner is worth more than Pasta?

Or Marner + 1M =Matthews for that matter?

Frankly, I don't see how he is the closest comparable. Marner might be on the pair with Pasta in playmaking ability but as someone watching most Leafs and Bruins games, I would still give an edge to Pasta. Compare to Marner, Pasta is playing a more physical game. No need to discuss goal scoring.

Is Marners PKing worth more than Pasta's scoring?

That's the problem with overpaying RFA players, you're bound to overpay them once more or walk them to UFA.

I would rather have Matthews at 16M than Marner @ 12 M.

If you had to build your new team from the scratch and could only choose between Matthews at 16M or Marner at 12M, no one is picking Marner.

Not saying he should be paid 16M but there is justification for this madness, not with Marner @12M.

I think giving the edge to Pasta at this point is fair. So many people here seem to think Marner is clearly the best winger in the game but I keep saying he's on the top tier with a few others and I doubt anyone in Boston would trade Pasta for Marner.

The problem is that both M&M were overpaid on their last contracts. Marner should have been around 9M, not sure about Matthews but yeah he got too much as well and that's why we're in this situation.

If Marner was paid fairly and thus making 9 million today, it would be a lot easier to now give him a raise to the money he's making now, he comes in just below Pasta and it's all good. But since we overpaid him, he's going to want a raise and it's beginning to feel more and more like we're f***ed.

If Matthews wants 15 million I'm trading him.

To L.A:

Matthews

To Toronto:

Danault
Fiala
Roy

Seems like way too much to pay for a year of Matthews. Might have to toss Nylander into the deal as well and that still might not be enough.

 

[ULF_55]

I think giving the edge to Pasta at this point is fair. So many people here seem to think Marner is clearly the best winger in the game but I keep saying he's on the top tier with a few others and I doubt anyone in Boston would trade Pasta for Marner.

The problem is that both M&M were overpaid on their last contracts. Marner should have been around 9M, not sure about Matthews but yeah he got too much as well and that's why we're in this situation.

If Marner was paid fairly and thus making 9 million today, it would be a lot easier to now give him a raise to the money he's making now, he comes in just below Pasta and it's all good. But since we overpaid him, he's going to want a raise and it's beginning to feel more and more like we're f***ed.


Seems like way too much to pay for a year of Matthews. Might have to toss Nylander into the deal as well and that still might not be enough.

My guess Mathews picks his destination and is Tkachuked away to his choice with a sign and trade.

Hopefully it isn't the Kings, but if we were betting, would it be NY or LA?

 

[Gary Nylund]

My guess Mathews picks his destination and is Tkachuked away to his choice with a sign and trade.

Hopefully it isn't the Kings, but if we were betting, would it be NY or LA?

That would be good as letting him negotiate a new contract instead of moving him as a rental gives us a much better return. And if he is moved, that does seem like a probably scenario.

If I were betting, not sure which is more likely but I do think those are the two most likely destinations. I also think I'd say hopefully it isn't the Rangers as I'd like to see him moved to the West (if he's moved at all).

I still hope he stays somehow but I'd say the same about Marner and Nylander (and ROR and McCabe) and it's hard to see how it all can work. The dream is that M&M decide they want to stay together and win a cup here, and they decide to be reasonable. I guess we'll see how big their egos are, that's what's going to decide this but I don't see how 14 million for Matthews is anything but ridiculous at this point (same goes for anything but a minimal raise for Marner).

This is going to be the most insane off-season ever. I just hope we have a playoff run to remember first, otherwise it's going to really hard to take.

 

[ULF_55]

That would be good as letting him negotiate a new contract instead of moving him as a rental gives us a much better return. And if he is moved, that does seem like a probably scenario.

If I were betting, not sure which is more likely but I do think those are the two most likely destinations. I also think I'd say hopefully it isn't the Rangers as I'd like to see him moved to the West (if he's moved at all).

I still hope he stays somehow but I'd say the same about Marner and Nylander (and ROR and McCabe) and it's hard to see how it all can work. The dream is that M&M decide they want to stay together and win a cup here, and they decide to be reasonable. I guess we'll see how big their egos are, that's what's going to decide this but I don't see how 14 million for Matthews is anything but ridiculous at this point (same goes for anything but a minimal raise for Marner).

This is going to be the most insane off-season ever. I just hope we have a playoff run to remember first, otherwise it's going to really hard to take.

At a minimum they'll have capspaec, and there are other players who'll be UFA at the same time.

If they haven't won anything, their careers may be Ovechkin like, personal stats important.

 

[TMLAM34]

If Matthews wants 15 million I'm trading him.

To L.A:

Matthews

To Toronto:

Danault
Fiala
Roy

I agree, if Matthews is asking for 14/15 million, I’m exploring trade options. I can see LA being an option, but I’m also looking at Brandt Clarke as a must coming back.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

His wrist shot was cool until his wrist went kaput.

Now he’s just a slow skater that can’t carry the puck or shoot.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner @ 12M just out of curiosity, why do you think Marner is worth more than Pasta?

Or Marner + 1M =Matthews for that matter?

Frankly, I don't see how he is the closest comparable. Marner might be on the pair with Pasta in playmaking ability but as someone watching most Leafs and Bruins games, I would still give an edge to Pasta. Compare to Marner, Pasta is playing a more physical game. No need to discuss goal scoring.

Is Marners PKing worth more than Pasta's scoring?


That's the problem with overpaying RFA players, you're bound to overpay them once more or walk them to UFA.


I would rather have Matthews at 16M than Marner @ 12 M.


If you had to build your new team from the scratch and could only choose between Matthews at 16M or Marner at 12M, no one is picking Marner.


Not saying he should be paid 16M but there is justification for this madness, not with Marner @12M.

Marner is on a different level defensively to Pastrnk. I'm not even sure how you could make a claim that Pasta has been a better player over-all or even as good of a player. Sure he can score goals but there are other aspects to the game. I hate appeals to authority but it wasn't Pasta on the 1st team all-star team the last 2 years as a right winger.

That said, look at Panarin's contract. Cap% 14.29% vs Pastrnak 13.64%. Marners comparables have been better there as well.
Should answer your question why anyone would think Marner has a claim for higher (not saying he will get higher)

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Assuming this math is correct, in the last 4 seasons he's missed a total of 20 games, that's ~5/season.

I get that everyone has their own standard but I would not call that "injury prone".

And to add to that optimism, so far, only his wrist seems to have been a recurring injury. Wrist problems are concerning for a sniper, sure, but no concussions, no ACL, etc. tears, no back issues, nothing chronic, all of which I'd be a lot more worried about.

Neat how you cherry picked the last 4 seasons and deliberately left out the 20 games missed and 14 games missed seasons.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

If Dubas is retained the negations will be interesting. When Willy Styles signed last time everyone thought the Leafs got ripped off. It ended being the best value contract Dubas negotiated. Marner and Matthews kind of fell in line after. Dubas has a lot more experience now. If it isn't Dubas it scares the GM will have to " take a stand ". A lot of scenarios. I believe either Styles or Marner ends up traded unless the Leafs make Conference Finals.

Matthews over 13. Styles 10.

I'm keeping Willie and Marner over Matthews all day long. Willie creates plays on his own, and Marner makes others around him better. Matthews needs a set up man like Marner to make him go.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

My guess Mathews picks his destination and is Tkachuked away to his choice with a sign and trade.

Hopefully it isn't the Kings, but if we were betting, would it be NY or LA?

LA or Vegas. Closer to home, and the warm weather he's used to.

 

[613Leafer]

The recent big contracts comparables (1st year of contract in brackets):

Larkin - 8 years X 8.7M (2023-2024)
M. Tkachuk - 8 years X 9.5M (2023-2024)
Barkov- 8 years X 10M (2022-2023)
Pastrnak - 8 years X 11.25M (2023-2024)
MacKinnon - 8 years X 12.6M (2023-2024)

Tkachuk to be fair was an RFA, but I also think as he had arbitration rights, was only 1 year from free agency, and had already shown in his dealings with Calgary that he was willing to exercise his rights, that this is pretty much what his UFA value would have been as well.

So where do Nylander and Matthews fall on this list? What was production like in the year leading up to these extensions, what was historical production relative to Nylander/Matthews, which ones are centres (more valuable), good two-way players, bring a noticeable physical element to their games, how is their production relative to their teammates (ie are their stats likely inflated or deflated due to linemates/teammates), etc.

Trying to factor all of that in, I'd say Nylander is somewhere near Larkin, and Matthews is up around MacKinnon. Larkin for example is a centre, regularly leads his team in scoring, is ~20 points ahead of his closest teammate right now, etc, so how much would Nylander have produced over the last few years in that environment, and how much would Larkin have produced here playing at times with Matthews, Tavares, Marner (at least on the PP), Rielly, etc.

Matthews production is more similar to Pastrnak/MacKinnon, but Matthews is a big two-way centre, which pushes his value above Pastrnak's.

All that said, I'd say ~8 years X 9-9.5M for Nylander is fair (this accounts for some cap growth), and Matthews 8 years X 12.5-13M is fair.

 

[MapleLeafs77]

There is zero chance Leafs management will ever trade Matthews. They will go down to the wire to keep him. Offer him whatever he wants….then hope he changes him mind to the last possible second. They will trade anyone on the team to keep him.

This is the greatest Leaf to ever play. This is a business and no way would they lose a player like Matthews and trade him. Nylander/marner/tavares/etc are all expendable for matthews. Its in matthews’ control.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

There is zero chance Leafs management will ever trade Matthews. They will go down to the wire to keep him. Offer him whatever he wants….then hope he changes him mind to the last possible second. They will trade anyone on the team to keep him.

This is the greatest Leaf to ever play. This is a business and no way would they lose a player like Matthews and trade him. Nylander/marner/tavares/etc are all expendable for matthews. Its in matthews’ control.

If they truly think like that then they're not really interested in winning, only about butts in seats.

 

[Confucius]

If they truly think like that then they're not really interested in winning, only about butts in seats.

The sad thing is they never have to worry about butts in the seats.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Offer him whatever he wants

Giving him whatever he wants is the last thing the Leafs should do.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The recent big contracts comparables (1st year of contract in brackets):

Larkin - 8 years X 8.7M (2023-2024)
M. Tkachuk - 8 years X 9.5M (2023-2024)
Barkov- 8 years X 10M (2022-2023)
Pastrnak - 8 years X 11.25M (2023-2024)
MacKinnon - 8 years X 12.6M (2023-2024)

Tkachuk to be fair was an RFA, but I also think as he had arbitration rights, was only 1 year from free agency, and had already shown in his dealings with Calgary that he was willing to exercise his rights, that this is pretty much what his UFA value would have been as well.

So where do Nylander and Matthews fall on this list? What was production like in the year leading up to these extensions, what was historical production relative to Nylander/Matthews, which ones are centres (more valuable), good two-way players, bring a noticeable physical element to their games, how is their production relative to their teammates (ie are their stats likely inflated or deflated due to linemates/teammates), etc.

Trying to factor all of that in, I'd say Nylander is somewhere near Larkin, and Matthews is up around MacKinnon. Larkin for example is a centre, regularly leads his team in scoring, is ~20 points ahead of his closest teammate right now, etc, so how much would Nylander have produced over the last few years in that environment, and how much would Larkin have produced here playing at times with Matthews, Tavares, Marner (at least on the PP), Rielly, etc.

Matthews production is more similar to Pastrnak/MacKinnon, but Matthews is a big two-way centre, which pushes his value above Pastrnak's.

All that said, I'd say ~8 years X 9-9.5M for Nylander is fair (this accounts for some cap growth), and Matthews 8 years X 12.5-13M is fair.

I agree, these look like fair deals to me. I think it's possible Nylander agrees to this, not as sure about Matthews.

There is zero chance Leafs management will ever trade Matthews. They will go down to the wire to keep him. Offer him whatever he wants….then hope he changes him mind to the last possible second. They will trade anyone on the team to keep him.

This is the greatest Leaf to ever play. This is a business and no way would they lose a player like Matthews and trade him. Nylander/marner/tavares/etc are all expendable for matthews. Its in matthews’ control.

Matthews isn't god, he's not McDavid, and he's not the greatest Leaf ever either, not yet anyway. And while I agree that he's a more valuable commodity than Marner, I don't think there's some massive gap between the two either.

 

[TMLAM34]

If Marner can be a 30 goal scorer on a consistent basis, I honestly think he’s the better player overall.

And I love Matthews.

 

[kevsh]

Neat how you cherry picked the last 4 season

How is it cherry picking when I'm using the most recent 4 seasons?

Is it possible that early in his career he wasn't as physically ready for the grind of the NHL but thanks to training, diet, playing style, etc. he's overcome that? Maybe just better luck?

Seems to me you're suggesting that because he had two lengthy absences in his first few years you feel he should be forced to carry the "injury prone" label for the rest of his career?

 

[ACC1224]

I'm sure most now think that Marner has passed Matthews as the Teams most valuable player.

This July is when Nylander and Matthews can be extended?

 

[Gary Nylund]

How is it cherry picking when I'm using the most recent 4 seasons?

Is it possible that early in his career he wasn't as physically ready for the grind of the NHL but thanks to training, diet, playing style, etc. he's overcome that? Maybe just better luck?

Seems to me you're suggesting that because he had two lengthy absences in his first few years you feel he should be forced to carry the "injury prone" label for the rest of his career?

LOL. Reminds me of how I was accused of cherry picking by Dekes when I pointed out how badly we played in game 7's for a few years there.

Why are you only looking at game 7's?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

How is it cherry picking when I'm using the most recent 4 seasons?

Is it possible that early in his career he wasn't as physically ready for the grind of the NHL but thanks to training, diet, playing style, etc. he's overcome that? Maybe just better luck?

Seems to me you're suggesting that because he had two lengthy absences in his first few years you feel he should be forced to carry the "injury prone" label for the rest of his career?

You have that rationalization hammer spinning that wheel in overdrive eh? You can't eleiminate his worst injury seasons because it favours your argument. It's a FACT he's been injured in 5 of his seven seasons, and never had two consecutive seasons where he hasn't been injured. There's no trend indicating these injuries are on the decline.

He's injury prone.

 

[TMLAM34]

I'm sure most now think that Marner has passed Matthews as the Teams most valuable player.

This July is when Nylander and Matthews can be extended?

Outside of the obvious Matthews and Nylander extensions, I’m hoping Dubas or whoever the GM is at the time looks into extending Liljegren long term.

6-8 years at a 4.5 million per range.

 

[ACC1224]

Outside of the obvious Matthews and Nylander extensions, I’m hoping Dubas or whoever the GM is at the time looks into extending Liljegren long term.

6-8 years at a 4.5 million per range.

So it is this July?