Next Projected contracts for Nylander and Matthews after 2024

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Honestly I would trade both for a boat load if they dont want to sign for something decent... save the money and get good young players locked up to 8 year contracts.
Can't trade matthews,
but I trade Rielly and Tavares
easy
 
Matthews isn’t taking anything less than MacKinnon.

If we assume the cap will be $87.5 mill when his new contract kicks in then MacKinnon’s same deal at the same cap % would be $13.2 mill. Matthews agent would argue he’s better with his 2x Rocket and Hart.

Before he accomplished anything in the league, he wanted $13.5 mill AAV on an 8-year deal. I can easily see him ask for $14-15 mill AAV.

If he truly wants to win then he’ll take less and you give him the C.
Mac, won a Cup and was severely underpaid. The Avalanche did him a solid and paid a little more because of his past performance. Solid way to build loyalty. If Mathews was making 7 and accomplished what he did nobody would balk at him catching up with 14 going forward.
 
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2019-20: 70 (covid shortened, missed 0 games)
2020-21: 52 (covid shortened, full season was 56 games, missed 4 games)
2021-22: 73 (missed 9 games)
2022-23 to date: team has played 63 games (Matthews 56, missed 7 games)

Assuming this math is correct, in the last 4 seasons he's missed a total of 20 games, that's ~5/season.

I get that everyone has their own standard but I would not call that "injury prone".

And to add to that optimism, so far, only his wrist seems to have been a recurring injury. Wrist problems are concerning for a sniper, sure, but no concussions, no ACL, etc. tears, no back issues, nothing chronic, all of which I'd be a lot more worried about.
 
People need to come down to earth
Even with back to back scoring and 1 mvp McDavid is still on a tier where he only lives in, WAY above the rest. Even if he’s only going crazy now with goals he’s always had 100+ points every year! On a way weaker team by the way. His goals are mostly his doing, him with marner would be ridicolous.

And now matthews numbers and play have dropped soo drastically that he’s not helping his case for the extension some say on here. He’s also been MIA his entire career in the playoffs so.
If he takes a fair contract make him the captain. If he wants to go crazy then trade him and let’s put everything into McDavid.
Because even McKinnon Pasternak etc comparables have a cup or playoff success
Man even Suzuki has better playoff numbers on a bottom of table team :(

The Mackinnon contract for Matthews seems completely fair at $12.6 million or whatever it is. Matthews had the one massive year so far on this current deal, and Mackinnon led a team to a cup... we could end up paying more and I'd be willing to live with it, but if we get more years like this it's not great... winning is what matters, but he shouldn't be lagging behind Draisaitl in point production if he's number two in the league. Even Marner is handily outscoring him. Those aren't separation numbers if you're the second best player in the game.
 
Can't trade matthews,
but I trade Rielly and Tavares
easy
You listed two undealable guys. You gotta convince both to waive NMC and then probably retain on Tavares if you deal him. The time to deal Mo was before signing the contract, not now

If dealing, it’s on of the big three for sure
 
Matthews isn’t taking anything less than MacKinnon.

If we assume the cap will be $87.5 mill when his new contract kicks in then MacKinnon’s same deal at the same cap % would be $13.2 mill. Matthews agent would argue he’s better with his 2x Rocket and Hart.

Before he accomplished anything in the league, he wanted $13.5 mill AAV on an 8-year deal. I can easily see him ask for $14-15 mill AAV.

If he truly wants to win then he’ll take less and you give him the C.
Ya it is shocking to me that people think he will be taking less on his next deal than he is currently being paid. Especially given his previous asks on 8 years as you mentioned
 
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If he doesn't dominate in the playoffs THIS year, it might be for the best.
The problem is this is the most important year in the matthews/dubas era, and its perceived he’s not 100% and it’s effecting his shot. If his play and output continue in the playoffs, it’s game over for both dubas and matthews.
 
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If Dubas is retained the negations will be interesting. When Willy Styles signed last time everyone thought the Leafs got ripped off. It ended being the best value contract Dubas negotiated. Marner and Matthews kind of fell in line after. Dubas has a lot more experience now. If it isn't Dubas it scares the GM will have to " take a stand ". A lot of scenarios. I believe either Styles or Marner ends up traded unless the Leafs make Conference Finals.

Matthews over 13. Styles 10.
 
If Dubas is retained the negations will be interesting. When Willy Styles signed last time everyone thought the Leafs got ripped off. It ended being the best value contract Dubas negotiated. Marner and Matthews kind of fell in line after. Dubas has a lot more experience now. If it isn't Dubas it scares the GM will have to " take a stand ". A lot of scenarios. I believe either Styles or Marner ends up traded unless the Leafs make Conference Finals.

Matthews over 13. Styles 10.
If dubas remains GM, I don’t see him trading any significant core player. It isn’t his style. worst case scenario, Toronto gets bounced in 5 games in rd 2 vs boston and dubas gets a multi year extension cause of one single playoff rd…that would be a very leaf thing to happen.
 
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The problem is this is the most important year in the matthews/dubas era, and its perceived he’s not 100% and it’s effecting his shot. If his play and output continue in the playoffs, it’s game over for both dubas and matthews.
I'm just not sold on breaking the bank for the guy. He's gonna be 26 and he's never been on a team that won a playoff series - let alone carried the team on his back to win a playoff series.

We say this EVERY year but the 2023 playoffs will speak volumes about his future as a Leaf.
 
I'm just not sold on breaking the bank for the guy. He's gonna be 26 and he's never been on a team that won a playoff series - let alone carried the team on his back to win a playoff series.

We say this EVERY year but the 2023 playoffs will speak volumes about his future as a Leaf.
Well I’m definately on board with moving on from matthews if things go south this season. Here’s an interesting stat, eichel, matthews and Larkin are all American born #1 centers on they’re teams for years and years. Not once do any of them have 1 playoff round win.
 
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Well I’m definately on board with moving on from matthews if things go south this season. Here’s an interesting stat, eichel, matthews and Larkin are all American born #1 centers on they’re teams for years and years. Not once do any of them have 1 playoff round win.
That is a bit of a shock.

Eichel is an(other) injury away from being done and I was never a big fan of Larkin. As for Matthews... we all expected more in the playoffs.
 
Willy would be in a 10 to 11 AAV range for 8 years

Matthews wanted 12.5 x 8 during RFA; got 11.6 x 5

So I expect it to be between 13 to 15 AAV for 8 years,

Marner would be close to Matthews too

basically if you do the math at the high end (b/c thats what I expect from Leafs anyway);

+3.5 for Willy
+ 3 for Matthews
+ 3 for Marner

total about 10 AAV (round up); basically pretty much all of JT's AAV will go towards the raises leaving around 1 million in cap.

Also depends on how much the cap goes up to be seen though

This is really what we can expect. The problem is that JT won't be off the books in time. You need to sign them while Tavares and his unmovable contract are still in.


Pasta @11.25 M for 8 years

I fully expect Matthews to get more because he is the better player.


On the other hand, Nylander getting 11 and Marner being close to Matthew's money is ridiculous.
 
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Ya it is shocking to me that people think he will be taking less on his next deal than he is currently being paid. Especially given his previous asks on 8 years as you mentioned
If he wants anything over 13 million I would trade him., especially if we don't win a rd in the playoffs.
Because with him making 15 million, it will push all our other contract up .
And he is not the top player in the league not even close.
Nylander 10 million
Marner 12 million
 
Assuming all are 8 year contracts:

Nylander 9M (Forsberg is his closest comparable, same cap hit % on a projected 87.5M cap).

Matthews 13M (let him carry over his previous cap hit % on a projected 87.5M cap).

Marner 12M (Pastrnak is his closest comparable, same cap hit% on projected 90M cap)

That's 34M to 3 players. A lot to stomach considering the players will gradually decline on these contracts and by the time the cap goes up enough to add another core piece to the mix these 3 may not be worth their contracts.

Marner @ 12M just out of curiosity, why do you think Marner is worth more than Pasta?

Or Marner + 1M =Matthews for that matter?

Frankly, I don't see how he is the closest comparable. Marner might be on the pair with Pasta in playmaking ability but as someone watching most Leafs and Bruins games, I would still give an edge to Pasta. Compare to Marner, Pasta is playing a more physical game. No need to discuss goal scoring.

Is Marners PKing worth more than Pasta's scoring?


That's the problem with overpaying RFA players, you're bound to overpay them once more or walk them to UFA.


I would rather have Matthews at 16M than Marner @ 12 M.


If you had to build your new team from the scratch and could only choose between Matthews at 16M or Marner at 12M, no one is picking Marner.


Not saying he should be paid 16M but there is justification for this madness, not with Marner @12M.
 
Mcdavid has missed 13 games in the last 7 seasons. Matthews has missed 55 games in his 6 seasons…
Fair enough.

I was including his 8th season but it does make more sense to just go over the time Matthews has been in the league
 
One of Dubas’ first mistakes was giving Matthews more than Tavares. Tavares was an established UFA while Matthews was coming off an ELC. Matthews shouldn’t have gotten more than 11 million.

For his next contract, ideally it’s 12x8 but as long as it stays under 12.5 million a year…
 
Marner @ 12M just out of curiosity, why do you think Marner is worth more than Pasta?

Or Marner + 1M =Matthews for that matter?

Frankly, I don't see how he is the closest comparable. Marner might be on the pair with Pasta in playmaking ability but as someone watching most Leafs and Bruins games, I would still give an edge to Pasta. Compare to Marner, Pasta is playing a more physical game. No need to discuss goal scoring.

Is Marners PKing worth more than Pasta's scoring?


That's the problem with overpaying RFA players, you're bound to overpay them once more or walk them to UFA.


I would rather have Matthews at 16M than Marner @ 12 M.


If you had to build your new team from the scratch and could only choose between Matthews at 16M or Marner at 12M, no one is picking Marner.


Not saying he should be paid 16M but there is justification for this madness, not with Marner @12M.
12M would be Pastrnak's cap hit % under a 83.5M cap multiplied by a 90M cap.
 

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