MrB1P's top 50 affiliated prospects. Edition 2019-2020.

[themelkman]

Ryan Merkley?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Nick Robertson was ranked in the 20's of my draft ranking, I love the type of player he is and his upside is massive. Same with Newhook, I had him in my top 10 and I wouldn't take Dach, Boldy or anyone else ranked behind him above him.

Bouchard was outside my top 15 in his draft year and he hasn't proven to me he can play more than a #3 game.

Romanov outplayed every D on the biggest prospect stage of 2019, made a pro team at 18 all that after being an early 2nd round pick, but more so, his tools and his attitude is that of a winner. He's smart, has a great shot, plays aggressive and intese and he has wheels for days, all things I love on a player.



I don't ignore Veleno, he was a late first round pick in 2018 and didn't show anything special in his regular season and POs, or internationally since being drafted. I don't think he's better than anyone and I don't like his upside. He's a really good skater and high speed puck handler, but what does he do with all that ? Paints himself in a corner more often than not and since he has a muffin shot, he'll be ineffective there. I don't see a top 6 player in him. Do you?

Heinola was 9th on my 2019 draft list, he may just be the smartest Dman Ive seen play in the last few years, and yeah, that includes Dahlin. He's an amazing 360 skater, he's an amazing passer, one of the best passer in his draft year and he shoots like a pro. He's an amazing player. If you want to read more about him you can take a peek at the 2019 draft threads where I raved about him all year.

Veleno didn’t show anything special? Being a defensive guy who scores over 100pts and leads the league in PPG (for players who played a reasonable amount of games) isn’t anything special?

 

[Mrb1p]

Veleno didn’t show anything special? Being a defensive guy who scores over 100pts and leads the league in PPG (for players who played a reasonable amount of games) isn’t anything special?

Not in your fourth season, while playing on the most stacked team in the league. He also didn't even lead his team in PPG.

I like Suzuki a lot, him and Zadina aren't far apart, but I do think Zadina's season needs some context.

Grand Rapids had the 2nd worst power play in the AHL and for whatever reason, Zadina got the majority of time on the second power play unit. The first few games of the season, because of veteran privilege, Ben Simon had Chris Terry in the right circle spot, where Zadina had scored the majority of his goals for Halifax and in WJCs, and Zadina on the left circle. Eventually Zadina was rewarded that spot in December. It wasn't a good situation for him either way in Grand Rapids, and yet he still produced well at even strength.

"Veteran privilege" ... You know Chris Terry won the scoring title of the AHL just a year ago ? Anyway, what you said isn't inherently wrong as per Zadina, I just wanted to correct you on that. Its not a mere "veteran privilege".

Ryan Merkley?

I like the player but he needs to show more than he did in league play. He's in the top 75 for sure.

 

[NotLeddy]

Not in your fourth season, while playing on the most stacked team in the league. He also didn't even lead his team in PPG.



"Veteran privilege" ... You know Chris Terry won the scoring title of the AHL just a year ago ? Anyway, what you said isn't inherently wrong as per Zadina, I just wanted to correct you on that. Its not a mere "veteran privilege".



I like the player but he needs to show more than he did in league play. He's in the top 75 for sure.

I'm aware of Chris Terry's accomplishments, yes. I should've added that as well. You can't blame Simon for prioritizing the proven AHL player over a rookie either, but it still was a factor in him struggling at the beginning of the season.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not in your fourth season, while playing on the most stacked team in the league. He also didn't even lead his team in PPG.



"Veteran privilege" ... You know Chris Terry won the scoring title of the AHL just a year ago ? Anyway, what you said isn't inherently wrong as per Zadina, I just wanted to correct you on that. Its not a mere "veteran privilege".



I like the player but he needs to show more than he did in league play. He's in the top 75 for sure.

You’re trying too hard with your “didn’t even lead his team in PPG”. You mean Comtois who only played 25 games? Literally the only player in the league with a better PPG but way too small of a sample size? Sure.

Also Drummondville was the most stacked team? You do know they finished 12pts behind the Huskies and had just 107pts right? They were far from a powerhouse

Also it was only his 4th season because he played as a 15yo child. Was still his draft +1.

Again, no matter how hard you try, calling a defensive C scoring 104pts and leading the league in PPG for players playing over 25games is a little ridiculous.

For example I see you have listed very high despite also being a late rd pick, not improving his PPG, only being 6th in scoring on his own team, and playing on a powerhouse team? Why is that? Because he had one great nhl game and he’s a Habs player?

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think the Nick Suzuki debate kind of exemplifies the issue that a lot of people have with the rankings. He went from 31 to 20 over one season where he just so happened to be traded from VGK to Montreal. He went from averaging 0.66 goals/game and 1.56 points/game in the regular season to 0.58 goals/game and 1.59 points/game in the following year. Yes he had a strong playoffs, but even factoring in those stats, 0.60 goals/game and 1.64 points/game.

So he regressed his goal scoring numbers by 0.06 goals/game and increased his point production by 0.05 points/game. That was enough for him to jump 11 spots in this ranking. In his D+2 year.

Comparatively, just because he's a prospect I have followed closely since his draft year, Joe Veleno improved from draft year averages of 0.36 goals/game and 1.22 points/game to his D+1 year of 0.67 goals/game and 1.61 points/game. (0.71 and 1.76 if you look strictly at regular season). Joe Veleno was not included on either ranking, and not even as an honorable mention.

You want to talk about how you are unbiased, address the major flaws in how you rank players. Veleno is just as strong of a skater, has demonstrated very good two way play for his age, and statistically produced step for step or improved upon Suzuki's offensive numbers, but one is a top 20 prospect in all of hockey and the other isn't an honorable mention for top 50. You understand how the optics of that are heavily rose colored.

Honestly, I'm not even here to argue for Veleno to be on the list, I'll chalk it up to difference of opinion; he's just a player I am most familiar with and I'm just here to illustrate how strong the bias is. Suzuki's stock shot up based on him becoming a Canadiens prospect because there's no justifiable way you can point to his stagnant performance as a point of growth in value, and I'm not willing to believe anything other than that reasoning alone.

If you want to over-inflate value for certain players, it is absolutely your right to do so, but don't act surprised or defensive when someone (or obviously multiple people) call you out on it. And more importantly, cut the act about being a pragmatic or reasonable talent evaluator.

 

[TeddyBare]

If a montreal prospect puts up big scoring totals in his 4th year in the CHL = See guys look at how elite this kid is, he's dominating kids
-
Anyone other teams prospects do it = Well it's his 4th year in the CHL, it's not impressive, look at his competition, he's been playing the league forever.

Just pick a side of the argument.
I personally take the 4th year of a CHL players career with a massive grain of salt.

 

[DRW204]

props to OP going to bat for his list, i am always interested in seeing how different set of eyes rank different players and which criteria/skill-set they find more appealing. i don't have enough of a qualified opinion or high amount of viewings to rank so-and-so player ahead of another, but OP is at least defending his/her opinion to the best they can.

 

[joe dirte]

I personally take the 4th year of a CHL players career with a massive grain of salt.

Correct.

I've seen a lot of posters from all teams claim that players (especially dmen) are looking good based on the 4th year. See Frankie corrado, Jesse Blacker, Jared Cowen for starters.

I think it should be almost a given they put up big numbers. If they don't, at that age, it's a knock, and a bad sign. See Logan Brown.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Not in your fourth season, while playing on the most stacked team in the league. He also didn't even lead his team in PPG.

Didn't Josh Brook (who's #13) not just do the exact same thing?

Where was Brook ranked on your list last year? I assume very highly, since this can't all be based on his 4th year in the CHL.

 

[ElLeetch]

Too much recency Bias. the top-10 is just "who was just drafted last month"

Kravtsov should be in the top-10, doing what he has in a pro league vs. 17 year olds who are in Jrs.

Fox at 40 is about right, but KA Miller should be right there with him, but there is not even a HM for him.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm aware of Chris Terry's accomplishments, yes. I should've added that as well. You can't blame Simon for prioritizing the proven AHL player over a rookie either, but it still was a factor in him struggling at the beginning of the season.

Fair enough, I don't disagree with that.

You’re trying too hard with your “didn’t even lead his team in PPG”. You mean Comtois who only played 25 games? Literally the only player in the league with a better PPG but way too small of a sample size? Sure.

Also Drummondville was the most stacked team? You do know they finished 12pts behind the Huskies and had just 107pts right? They were far from a powerhouse

Also it was only his 4th season because he played as a 15yo child. Was still his draft +1.

Again, no matter how hard you try, calling a defensive C scoring 104pts and leading the league in PPG for players playing over 25games is a little ridiculous.

For example I see you have listed very high despite also being a late rd pick, not improving his PPG, only being 6th in scoring on his own team, and playing on a powerhouse team? Why is that? Because he had one great nhl game and he’s a Habs player?

They finished 12 teams behind Rouyn because they lost a lot of man games for their top prospects with the WJC, as simple as that.
100+ missed games from their top guys like Veleno, Beaudin, POJ, Simoneau, Comtois, etc. Meanwhile of the top guys the Huskies had, only Dobson and Lauko missed a significant amount of games.

For all of the talk about the Huskies, you also have to realize Drummond scored the most goals in the league by a fair amount (338 vs 320).

Veleno had a good year, thats for sure, but he didn't prove anything for me. He wasn't particularly good in the POs and I don't like his skillset compared to Poehling, its as simple as that.

I think the Nick Suzuki debate kind of exemplifies the issue that a lot of people have with the rankings. He went from 31 to 20 over one season where he just so happened to be traded from VGK to Montreal. He went from averaging 0.66 goals/game and 1.56 points/game in the regular season to 0.58 goals/game and 1.59 points/game in the following year. Yes he had a strong playoffs, but even factoring in those stats, 0.60 goals/game and 1.64 points/game.

So he regressed his goal scoring numbers by 0.06 goals/game and increased his point production by 0.05 points/game. That was enough for him to jump 11 spots in this ranking. In his D+2 year.

Comparatively, just because he's a prospect I have followed closely since his draft year, Joe Veleno improved from draft year averages of 0.36 goals/game and 1.22 points/game to his D+1 year of 0.67 goals/game and 1.61 points/game. (0.71 and 1.76 if you look strictly at regular season). Joe Veleno was not included on either ranking, and not even as an honorable mention.

You want to talk about how you are unbiased, address the major flaws in how you rank players. Veleno is just as strong of a skater, has demonstrated very good two way play for his age, and statistically produced step for step or improved upon Suzuki's offensive numbers, but one is a top 20 prospect in all of hockey and the other isn't an honorable mention for top 50. You understand how the optics of that are heavily rose colored.

Honestly, I'm not even here to argue for Veleno to be on the list, I'll chalk it up to difference of opinion; he's just a player I am most familiar with and I'm just here to illustrate how strong the bias is. Suzuki's stock shot up based on him becoming a Canadiens prospect because there's no justifiable way you can point to his stagnant performance as a point of growth in value, and I'm not willing to believe anything other than that reasoning alone.

If you want to over-inflate value for certain players, it is absolutely your right to do so, but don't act surprised or defensive when someone (or obviously multiple people) call you out on it. And more importantly, cut the act about being a pragmatic or reasonable talent evaluator.

You kinda ignore context and just use PPG to prove a point, I'm sorry but this is the only argument Veleno has. He has the weaker skillset, he has the weaker teammate argument, he has the weaker performances, he's never been good in the POs, he hasn't shown he can take his game to the next level and he's never shown he could produce without support like Suzuki does. Also Suzuki's goalscoring is just a next level from Veleno, like not even comparable.

Also I love how it reflects on your knowledge of other teams prospects, did you just call Suzuki as good of a skater as Veleno ? If he was, he would've been a first overall pick, most likely.

I also love how you act like Suzuki stagnated. Did you just ignore one of the most dominant CHL PO run in recent memory ? You know he produced numbers that are close to Marner/Debrincat/Strome levels ?

If a montreal prospect puts up big scoring totals in his 4th year in the CHL = See guys look at how elite this kid is, he's dominating kids
-
Anyone other teams prospects do it = Well it's his 4th year in the CHL, it's not impressive, look at his competition, he's been playing the league forever.

Just pick a side of the argument.
I personally take the 4th year of a CHL players career with a massive grain of salt.

So Veleno's 4th year of CHL is a grain of salt? I agree.

Without context, I also agree, but we don't live in a contextless bubble.

Didn't Josh Brook (who's #13) not just do the exact same thing?

Where was Brook ranked on your list last year? I assume very highly, since this can't all be based on his 4th year in the CHL.

He was a HM in the rankings, but he clearly jumped over A LOT of people with his performance this year. Why? He showed his offensive talent for the first time since being drafted, mostly his shot. Thats where it all changed for me. With his wrists injuries he just looked like a smart player with great instincts. Now with fully healed wrists ? He's a goalscorer, a dangler, a passer. He does it all. He basically got +10 overall on his NHL 2019 rating from 2018.

 

[Mrb1p]

Too much recency Bias. the top-10 is just "who was just drafted last month"

Kravtsov should be in the top-10, doing what he has in a pro league vs. 17 year olds who are in Jrs.

Fox at 40 is about right, but KA Miller should be right there with him, but there is not even a HM for him.

I can't HM everyone, and I am particularly lower on Miller than most.

If I rank Kravtsov in the top 10, I have to bump Vesalainen up too, because theyve both been doing the same thing in the KHL.

 

[Bevans]

Why punish Veleno for exceptional status? He's D1. That's not the same as a D2 season from someone who didn't have exceptional status.

 

[Mrb1p]

Why punish Veleno for exceptional status? He's D1. That's not the same as a D2 season from someone who didn't have exceptional status.

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

If I rank Kravtsov in the top 10, I have to bump Vesalainen up too, because theyve both been doing the same thing in the KHL.

If D1 and D2 seasons are the same, sure

 

[TeddyBare]

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

so you really don't get it? Like you really dont?

 

[joe dirte]

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

I think it's more age. The kids playing in the CHL post draft had better have good years, or it's a knock against you. Two years post draft, if you're actually still playing in the CHL, and not dominating, chances you go far are pretty slim.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

I would hope you can recognize the difference between your first season being as a 15yo where essentially no one is that young versus starting at 16...? Same as playing your 4th year as a 19 vs 18yo

 

[ijuka]

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

So you think the guys who've only played there for 3 years are unfamiliar with the league or something, and hence at a disadvantage...?

 

[TeddyBare]

So you think the guys who've only played there for 3 years are unfamiliar with the league or something, and hence at a disadvantage...?

I just dont get his perspective.
Nick Suzuki and Josh Brook both in the top 20
both in their 4th year, and look at those numbers, simply amazing

every other prospect in the CHL in their 4th year, I expected better.

I just do not get this logic.

 

[Hfbsux]

For people complaining about the list I can confirm that the poster stayed true with his opinion and I can respect that. Better that than someone who just go with McKenzie's list of draft results to judge a prospect or list. He actually watched these guys play and I remember how he wasn't impressed with Zegras and how much praise he gave Brook and Dorofeyev for example. Good job!

 

[Hen Kolland]

I also love how you act like Suzuki stagnated. Did you just ignore one of the most dominant CHL PO run in recent memory ? You know he produced numbers that are close to Marner/Debrincat/Strome levels ?

I told you I'm not going to debate whether or not Veleno should or shouldn't be included in the rankings. I didn't even suggest that he's the better prospect at the end of the day. The PPG statistic I brought up proved exactly what I was suggesting...Suzuki didn't improve his production YOY. His numbers were stagnant...over more games and including his massive playoff stretch his numbers this year didn't improve much, if at all.

The fact that you just tried to make a comparison of Suzuki to Marner/DeBrincat/Strome levels is outstanding. Suzuki broke away from his well below Marner/DeBrincat/Strome norm when he was in the playoffs to put up big numbers for a short stretch compared to a full season.

Final CHL regular season:
Marner: 2.04 points/game
DeBrincat: 2.02
Strome: 2.14
Suzuki: 1.42

Suzuki is a very good prospect, but don't act like he is even remotely close to the same stratosphere as those guys as prospects. This just further illustrates the lengths you are willing to go to try to prove you aren't biased.

 

[Bevans]

Its four years in juniors anyway, its your fourth year playing in the same league, as a 19 years old.

So exceptional status is a punishment to you. Got it.

 

[Hfbsux]

I told you I'm not going to debate whether or not Veleno should or shouldn't be included in the rankings. I didn't even suggest that he's the better prospect at the end of the day. The PPG statistic I brought up proved exactly what I was suggesting...Suzuki didn't improve his production YOY. His numbers were stagnant...over more games and including his massive playoff stretch his numbers this year didn't improve much, if at all.

The fact that you just tried to make a comparison of Suzuki to Marner/DeBrincat/Strome levels is outstanding. Suzuki broke away from his well below Marner/DeBrincat/Strome norm when he was in the playoffs to put up big numbers for a short stretch compared to a full season.

Final CHL regular season:
Marner: 2.04 points/game
DeBrincat: 2.02
Strome: 2.14
Suzuki: 1.42

Suzuki is a very good prospect, but don't act like he is even remotely close to the same stratosphere as those guys as prospects. This just further illustrates the lengths you are willing to go to try to prove you aren't biased.

When looking at who had the best ppg, I like to compare their teammates.