MrB1P's top 50 affiliated prospects. Edition 2019-2020.

[MardyBum]

Pronman has him as the 11th best prospect among all players drafted over the last 5 years.

But sure....

Pronman has his own ridiculous biases. He's had plenty of whiffs.

 

[joe dirte]

So you think the guys who've only played there for 3 years are unfamiliar with the league or something, and hence at a disadvantage...?

No, it's a league where ages range from 16, and in exceptional cases, 15, all the way to 21. At a time when the learning curve is very steep.

It makes a big difference.

I'ts not really to do with "figuring the league out" at all.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Yes he had a strong playoffs, but even factoring in those stats, 0.60 goals/game and 1.64 points/game.

that's just being dishonest. He CARRIED his team in the playoff like a Crosby or Mcdavid does, that's why his value went sky high after that. He finally show the world that he isnt' lazy or bored like some people thought.

his only big downside was his lethargy when he was playing, during those playoffs he changed completely and took a big 180 degree turn, he was dominating over dominating.

 

[Hen Kolland]

When looking at who had the best ppg, I like to compare their teammates.

That's fair. Suzuki was around 1.59 ppg in the regular season compared to his next closest teammate 1.57 (Schnarr).

Veleno was around 1.76 compared to his next closest teammate 1.40 (MacLeod). I excluded Comtois because he only played in 25 of 68 games. So...where do we go now?

 

[Hfbsux]

That's fair. Suzuki was around 1.59 ppg in the regular season compared to his next closest teammate 1.57 (Schnarr).

Veleno was around 1.76 compared to his next closes teammate 1.40 (MacLeod). I excluded Comtois because he only played in 25 of 68 games. So...where do we go now?

LOL. You took Suzuki's regular season total games even if he only played half the season with Guelph and Schnarr (who didn't even play on the same line).

Suzuki had 1.716 playing with Guelph (29 reg season game + 24 playoffs games). Now do the same exercise for Schnarr.

 

[Hen Kolland]

that's just being dishonest. He CARRIED his team in the playoff like a Crosby or Mcdavid does, that's why his value went sky high after that. He finally show the world that he isnt' lazy or bored like some people thought.

his only big downside was his lethargy when he was playing, during those playoffs he changed completely and took a big 180 degree turn, he was dominating over dominating.

So a 20-25 game stretch is enough to buck the norm? Since his draft year, he posted 1.48 in 65 games, 1.56 in 64 games, and 1.59 in 59 games. I have 188 regular season games telling me that he is within a tenth of a point per game in the 1.5-1.6 range in the OHL. His previous playoffs were 1.35 and 1.09. But that one 24 game stretch where he finally made it to 1.75 is enough to completely change who he has been as a player his entire career. Got it.

Well now that we are on the same page, can Detroit offer sheet Suzuki for $11 million this offseason? He's basically the same as Crosby and McDavid, after all.

 

[Hfbsux]

So a 20-25 game stretch is enough to buck the norm? Since his draft year, he posted 1.48 in 65 games, 1.56 in 64 games, and 1.59 in 59 games. I have 188 regular season games telling me that he is within a tenth of a point per game in the 1.5-1.6 range in the OHL. His previous playoffs were 1.35 and 1.09. But that one 24 game stretch where he finally made it to 1.75 is enough to completely change who he has been as a player his entire career. Got it.

Well now that we are on the same page, can Detroit offer sheet Suzuki for $11 million this offseason? He's basically the same as Crosby and McDavid, after all.

I'd take Detroit's four 1st pick in a heartbeat.

 

[Hen Kolland]

LOL. You took Suzuki's regular season total games even if he only played half the season with Guelph and Schnarr (who didn't even play on the same line).

Suzuki had 1.716 playing with Guelph (29 reg season game + 24 playoffs games). Now do the same exercise for Schnarr.

If Veleno in year 4 can shatter his previous numbers over the full season and get zero credit, Suzuki doesn't get a f***ing thing for a bit more than half a season of production in his 4th year.

Consistency is key.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'd take Detroit's four 1st pick in a heartbeat.

You want a bunch of 31st overall picks? I mean we are basically taking Wayne Gretzky incarnate in the form of Suzuki; I mean he CARRIES his team (even if it's only for the first time in his career over only 24 games), surely that will be enough to win all of the Stanley Cups. Maybe he should be ranked first overall.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I just dont get his perspective.
Nick Suzuki and Josh Brook both in the top 20
both in their 4th year, and look at those numbers, simply amazing

every other prospect in the CHL in their 4th year, I expected better.

I just do not get this logic.

It's actually quite easy to get his logic.

He did the same thing with last years list (Montreal bias), so take the list for what it's worth.

 

[Hfbsux]

If Veleno in year 4 can shatter his previous numbers over the full season and get zero credit, Suzuki doesn't get a ****ing thing for a bit more than half a season of production in his 4th year.

Consistency is key.

I think what you're trying to say is statwatching is key. Not only you're all over the place with your stats but you obviously haven't watch how Suzuki dominated his peers when it mattered. He also focused on his overall game all year (that's coming from him). I was not even comparing him with Veleno but if you want me to, here we go: Veleno has done shit in my viewings and in playoffs. There's that, and I don't care if he had exceptionnal player or if he got drafted by your team.

 

[Hfbsux]

You want a bunch of 31st overall picks? I mean we are basically taking Wayne Gretzky incarnate in the form of Suzuki; I mean he CARRIES his team (even if it's only for the first time in his career over only 24 games), surely that will be enough to win all of the Stanley Cups. Maybe he should be ranked first overall.

Well I mean, if you guys think Veleno is that good..

 

[Mrb1p]

If Veleno in year 4 can shatter his previous numbers over the full season and get zero credit, Suzuki doesn't get a ****ing thing for a bit more than half a season of production in his 4th year.

Consistency is key.

The difference being in their play on the ice.

Also Velenos playoffs don't help him. He didn't "shatter" anything, he posted more or less what I expected of him, I expected him to be top 5 in the league in scoring and thats exactly what he did.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

So a 20-25 game stretch is enough to buck the norm? Since his draft year, he posted 1.48 in 65 games, 1.56 in 64 games, and 1.59 in 59 games. I have 188 regular season games telling me that he is within a tenth of a point per game in the 1.5-1.6 range in the OHL. His previous playoffs were 1.35 and 1.09. But that one 24 game stretch where he finally made it to 1.75 is enough to completely change who he has been as a player his entire career. Got it.

Well now that we are on the same page, can Detroit offer sheet Suzuki for $11 million this offseason? He's basically the same as Crosby and McDavid, after all.

how do you make a calculation of progression, tell me ? you are missing the point by a large margin

 

[Hen Kolland]

The difference being in their play on the ice.

Also Velenos playoffs don't help him. He didn't "shatter" anything, he posted more or less what I expected of him, I expected him to be top 5 in the league in scoring and thats exactly what he did.

No, he absolutely did shatter his previous performance. The biggest knock on him during his draft season was offensive production. He improved from 22 goals and 57 assists in 64 games to 42 goals and 62 assists in 59 games. Increasing your point totals by 25 points in 5 fewer games is pretty substantial. Both years he was around 1 point per game in the playoffs, so I don't fault you for not being impressed by his playoff performance.

I guess I don't know why Veleno was expected to be top 5 in the league in scoring but Suzuki has apparently different standards? He wasn't top 5 in P/G rate, despite being a year older and having been a higher scoring player last year, and he gets a pass? I mean by the way you've completed your rankings, we're talking about probably 40 players between the two?

 

[Mildan]

This is a really random list. Why is Nick Robertson on here? Why is Newhook so high? Bouchard not even top 50 but Brooks is 13? And really Romanov at 32?

Really weird list.

Nick Robertson has been compared to Aho so if you see him as similar talent there is no question why you would have him on this list. I wanted Carolina to pick him.

 

[Mrb1p]

No, he absolutely did shatter his previous performance. The biggest knock on him during his draft season was offensive production. He improved from 22 goals and 57 assists in 64 games to 42 goals and 62 assists in 59 games. Increasing your point totals by 25 points in 5 fewer games is pretty substantial. Both years he was around 1 point per game in the playoffs, so I don't fault you for not being impressed by his playoff performance.

I guess I don't know why Veleno was expected to be top 5 in the league in scoring but Suzuki has apparently different standards? He wasn't top 5 in P/G rate, despite being a year older and having been a higher scoring player last year, and he gets a pass? I mean by the way you've completed your rankings, we're talking about probably 40 players between the two?

Have you ever thought about one second that my opinion is not entirely based on their offensive production ? I can talk about it all day and as Ive said, yes, Veleno had a good season, but he didn't prove anything to me. He didn't prove he could be a goal scorer, he didn't prove he was a high-end playmaker, he didn't prove he'd up his game once the going got tough and he didn't prove he could produce on the big stage. He's just not a prospect I like, plain and simple, and no, it has nothing to do with him being a Detroit Red Wings.

 

[HanSolo]

I understand trying to avoid recency bias but I'm not really sure how Zegras doesn't crack your top 50.

 

[Mrb1p]

I understand trying to avoid recency bias but I'm not really sure how Zegras doesn't crack your top 50.

I don't like him much. There's upside, but what I've seen on the ice doesn't really translate to the popular opinion people have of him. Ive mentioned this already but I don't know what Zegras's strengths are, I don't know what made him a top 9 pick. On the ice, I can't see it. Sure at a first glance of a stats sheet he looks very good, but otherwise, I just haven't been impressed.

He's similar to a lot of players I haven't ranked to me, mostly Kyrou and Boqvist.

 

[bsu]

If you watch shift by shift footage of him on 480p (so you can't see the jerseys clearly) I guarantee you can't tell the difference between Hughes and Zegras.

If you can't tell what Zegras is good at you must not like Hughes either.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Have you ever thought about one second that my opinion is not entirely based on their offensive production ? I can talk about it all day and as Ive said, yes, Veleno had a good season, but he didn't prove anything to me. He didn't prove he could be a goal scorer, he didn't prove he was a high-end playmaker, he didn't prove he'd up his game once the going got tough and he didn't prove he could produce on the big stage. He's just not a prospect I like, plain and simple, and no, it has nothing to do with him being a Detroit Red Wings.

"My opinion isn't based on offensive production."

*Proceeds to list goal scoring and playmaking.*

Yeah you are extremely bad at this. You aren't encouraging discussion, because you've convinced yourself that your opinion is gospel. Nothing matters other than the sweater that you hope to see a player in.

 

[joshik]

Nick before Jason wtf #ů§ů.§

 

[HanSolo]

I don't like him much. There's upside, but what I've seen on the ice doesn't really translate to the popular opinion people have of him. Ive mentioned this already but I don't know what Zegras's strengths are, I don't know what made him a top 9 pick. On the ice, I can't see it. Sure at a first glance of a stats sheet he looks very good, but otherwise, I just haven't been impressed.

He's similar to a lot of players I haven't ranked to me, mostly Kyrou and Boqvist.

Excellent puck skill, good playmaking ability, smart skater (I hesitate to say great skater because his edgework needs improvement imo but he's smart about finding space and working through traffic at relatively high speed), plays a strong two way game. If you rate Cody Glass at 5 I don't know how Zegras doesn't cut into even 50th. They're very similar prospects with the only difference being that I note Glass as having higher IQ and pure passing talent, which isn't saying much because I believe that of all the NHL prospect pipelines Glass is the cream of the crop in terms of IQ and passing ability. Not to say he's a perfect prospect as I do have some concerns with other parts of his game (namely that his high IQ cuts into how aggressively he involves himself in the play both offensively and defensively) , but I also feel that Zegras is not very far off, is stylistically very similar, and I'd be ready to say that he has a higher ceiling (though, imo, a lower potential floor).

Edit: also just for the sake of the comparison, Glass has better edgework in his skating now but at the same age you'd be surprised at just how similar both players were in their skating. Practically identical in that sense.

Edit 2: also I'm wondering what you see in Cozens and Boldy that you like enough to include them and rather high in the rankings as opposed to Zegras.

 

[Mrb1p]

If you watch shift by shift footage of him on 480p (so you can't see the jerseys clearly) I guarantee you can't tell the difference between Hughes and Zegras.

If you can't tell what Zegras is good at you must not like Hughes either.

I don't think so. Not even close. Why did Hughes go 1st and Zegras 9th then ? Why didn't Zegras produce more ? Hughes skating, puck handling and spacial awarness is among the best Ive ever seen.

 

[HanSolo]

I don't think so. Not even close. Why did Hughes go 1st and Zegras 9th then ? Why didn't Zegras produce more ? Hughes skating, puck handling and spacial awarness is among the best Ive ever seen.

Caulfield 14th overall/31 on your list
Krebs 17th overall/29 on your list

I don't agree that Hughes and Zegras are the same quality of prospect, but this logic as refutation to that point is constructively inane.