Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[The Hanging Jowl]

Real fans who watch hockey will be upset because they know talent. Not everyone on here fits that description though.

Or perhaps the average person here knows there's more to building a winner than signing one player whereas your average "hockey fan" has a myopic zomg!-he's-the-greatest-they-need-to-give-him-anything-he-asks-for worldview.

 

[Kamiccolo]

People shitting on Dubas for not signing Marner last summer, I get it, but you are ignoring so much. He was negotiating with Nylander, remember? He wanted 8.5 when Marner was willing to extend.

You take that 9M deal, even if you think that he is worth it, and Nylander who was basically an equal to most at the time can ask for it as well.

In hindsight, maybe it's better to do 11 x8, 9x8, and 8.5x8 = 28.5 AAV for 8 years vs 11.65, 11, 6.9 = 27 AAV for 5-6 years, but you just can't use hindsight to judge it.

At the time if he signed Nylander to that, there would have been riots.

 

[Marshy]

They don't necessarily have to give up picks, a deal could be worked out.

** I don't think it will come to this either but it's not impossible.

Ya I know...but if the Leafs don't get a trade package they like that is at least in the neighbourhood value of 4 firsts - they can just say thanks but no thanks. Bottom line, the package would be substantial coming the the Leafs. You think there are many teams that want to overpay Marner and give up massive trade assets for the privilege to do so?

 

[therealkoho]

What does our first next year have to do with speaking to Panarin?



Panarin will likely be signed by someone before Marner would be given an offer sheet. The hypothetical offer sheet would most likely come from a team that didn't get Panarin.

i clarified it in a previous post pal, move on

 

[Puckclektr]

Where is the cap at for the leafs currently? Are they waiting to sign kapanen and johnsson after marner? With marleau gone, to they have the room to sign marner now if offersheeted? Thanks

 

[WTFMAN99]

Who can realistically offer sheet or give Marner the money he wants without screwing up their own internal cap structure?

Marner gets 11-12M from say NYI then Barzal will want 12M.

 

[ACC1224]

Ya I know...but if the Leafs don't get a trade package they like that is at least in the neighbourhood value of 4 firsts - they can just say thanks but no thanks. Bottom line, the package would be substantial coming the the Leafs. You think there are many teams that want to overpay Marner and give up massive trade assets for the privilege to do so?

There obviously must be or this wouldn't be much of a bluff.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner's camp was happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

Lol, what do they expect, for Dubas to lube up and bend over?

I'm glad Dubas is taking a harder line this time around. We can't continue to cave in to the demands of our RFAs.

It's a privilege to play for this storied franchise, and yet some of these kids are expecting the team to pay a premium as a result. It should be the other way around.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

How would burke know what was offered? I doubt teams tell that bafoon anything

I would be surprised if he didn't still have some contacts in that organization.

 

[Rymistri]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

These just can't be true.

 

[Marshy]

There obviously must be or this wouldn't be much of a bluff.

A bluff is only as good as your opponents gullibility. You could have the best poker face in the world but if you're holding a pair of 6's and I don't fall for it...you're probably going to lose the hand.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I would be surprised if he didn't still have some contacts in that organization.

Burke is a very well connected hockey guy, he has been in the league for a very long time, cmon man lol

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

I hope the comments on not matching aren't an issue. What was Dubas supposed to say? "No matter what another team offers we'll match"?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Sitting Marner is a non-starter if they want to keep him. Another reason is because you can't sign him for 10 M AAV in Nov or Dec. Just like Nylander, the AAV will be higher in year 1 the longer this goes (assuming Marner signs before Dec 1). The Leafs had room last year to wait it out they don't have it this year.

Yeah, what helped us last year would destroy us this year. Marner is holding more cards than Nylander ever had.

 

[ACC1224]

A bluff is only as good as your opponents gullibility. You could have the best poker face in the world but if you're holding a pair of 6's and I don't fall for it...you're probably going to lose the hand.

Sure but this isn't cards though.
I'm sure the agent has done his homework and so has Dubas.
I would suspect someone has told him there is interest in his player if the Leafs can't get it done.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Yeah, what helped us last year would destroy us this year. Marner is holding more cards than Nylander ever had.

Any offersheet for Marner would be much more enticing for the Leafs to not match as well. It would almost certainly be 4 unprotected firsts. Losing Nylander for just a first, second and third would have hurt more.

 

[613Leafer]

Who can realistically offer sheet or give Marner the money he wants without screwing up their own internal cap structure?

Marner gets 11-12M from say NYI then Barzal will want 12M.

Yep, it's a major factor. There's a reason why offersheets virtually never happen, despite the media every single year screaming that the sky is falling and that it's going to be offersheet city out there.

You have to overpay to acquire a player via an offersheet. Marner's not going to sign an offersheet that's like ~5-6 years X 9M, and if he did, we would obviously just match it. So pretty much right off the bat, a team has to overpay in terms of the caphit to acquire Marner.

Then like you said, that impacts their own internal cap structure going forward. Teams with major RFAs coming due this summer or next summer include NYI (Barzal), Carolina (Aho), Calgary (Tkachuk), Ottawa (Chabot), TB (Point), Colorado (Rantanen), Buffalo (Reinhart + Dahlin), Vancouver (Petterson), etc. It's gotta be a solid 1/2 of the league that has a ~60+ point forward RFA or top 2-3 dman RFA coming up over the next 12 months.

Then on top of that, they have to give up picks as compensation. Unprotected picks too. Anything above ~10.5M means FOUR unprotected 1st rounders, which I can't imagine any team in the league would be willing to pay. Maybe a team will try to get him on a ~5 year X 10.5M, and sneak in right under the four 1st rounder threshold so that it's two unprotected 1sts + 2nd + 3rd, but that still runs the risk of messing with internal salary structures and would overall be a very risky move.

 

[Walshy7]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

haha, upset they are upset because dubas wont overpay him on a ludicrous contract. If all the stuff coming out about marners camp is true surely you move on from them, I wouldn't be surprised if paul wasn't around the leafs all day trying to get a word with babcock about his sons playing time. They come across as so incredibly petty

 

[Marshy]

Sure but this isn't cards though.
I'm sure the agent has done his homework and so has Dubas.
I would suspect someone has told him there is interest in his player if the Leafs can't get it done.

I don't doubt there would be teams interested even at 10.5 X 6 but the Leafs match anything below that and take the 4 firsts above that. Kyle could tell Ferris that his max is the 10.5 threshold for 4 picks compensation. Anything that returns less than 4 firsts he matches. Then he could turn around and tell other GMs he will match anything up to 11 M AAV. Do they call his bluff and offer below 11? Is Dubas bluffing them or the Marner camp? Does Marner's camp want to find out which bluff is the real one? To find out, he has to risk leaving. If he's willing to risk leaving...probably for the best to let him go.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

In other words (if all true), their motives are ego driven. Sad to see this unfolding (again, if true).

 

[Hockey Crazy]

People ****ting on Dubas for not signing Marner last summer, I get it, but you are ignoring so much. He was negotiating with Nylander, remember? He wanted 8.5 when Marner was willing to extend.

You take that 9M deal, even if you think that he is worth it, and Nylander who was basically an equal to most at the time can ask for it as well.

In hindsight, maybe it's better to do 11 x8, 9x8, and 8.5x8 = 28.5 AAV for 8 years vs 11.65, 11, 6.9 = 27 AAV for 5-6 years, but you just can't use hindsight to judge it.

At the time if he signed Nylander to that, there would have been riots.

Exactly... people love to ignore half the facts.

Matthews was a slam dunk though and they messed up on him.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

I hope the comments on not matching aren't an issue. What was Dubas supposed to say? "No matter what another team offers we'll match"?

Exactly! If true, this is reaching the level of farce. Are these the most hyper-sensitive, inferiority-complexed freaks on the face of the earth?

 

[ACC1224]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

This as well as some other stuff in the first year has created a little animosity is my understanding.
There's a reason Mitch's dad skips the Dad's trip now.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't doubt there would be teams interested even at 10.5 X 6 but the Leafs match anything below that and take the 4 firsts above that. Kyle could tell Ferris that his max is the 10.5 threshold for 4 picks compensation. Anything that returns less than 4 firsts he matches. Then he could turn around and tell other GMs he will match anything up to 11 M AAV. Do they call is bluff and offer below 11? Is Dubas bluffing them or the Marner camp? Does Marner's camp want to find out which bluff is the real one? To find out, he has to risk leaving. If he's willing to risk leaving...probably for the best to let him go.

That is what gives Dubas the edge, IMO.
Marner doesn't want to leave.

 

[leafsfan5]

Friedman says he doesn't think Marner and Marner's camp were happy with Dubas' comments about not automatically matching an offer sheet.

CJ says Marner's camp does felt slighted about the bonuses on the ELC stuff with Lou, and the lack of ice time in his first year. CJ says on some level, this is what is driving the Marner's camp hard negotiation

He leads all forwards in ice time now, Mitch needs to get over this ego BS from his rookie season