Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[Stamkos4life]

6 x 10 is laughable

Laughably good, or bad?

 

[Nineteen67]

It's getting bent yet again

If I'm Dubas I say if you want 10 you sign for 8 or you sit or sign elsewhere and we take the 4 1sts. This caving to every demand needs to stop or he won't have any semblance of a bluff

That’s not 4 first....

Now, let’s suppose he sits....do the Leafs just keep 10.6 million open in cap space waiting for him or do they spend it on other players?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I don't think you understand what scewing stats entails, or at the very least, we're discussing different definitinos of it. I'll break it down simply for you.

I am not stating Marner had a 95 point sophmore season. I stated that he had a 95 point sophmore season when playing with Kadri. To evaluate this statement, you must first select the games that Marner and Kadri played together. That total was 33. No more, no less. Otherwise, you'd be scewing statistics.

Now, when backing up my statement, I'm not just taking any 33 game sample size. I'm only selecting the 33 games that Marner and Kadri actually played together. Otherwise, you'd e scewing statistics.

These 33 games also coincided with the last 33 games of the season, where you would expect it to be a better predictor of future success than the first part of the season.

Listen, if you looked at the whole picture in regards to Marner's sophmore season, it would be very clear that he is a special player that was capable of reaching 90+ seasons. It should be a surprise to noone that he reached 94 points this season.

Thanks but in not interested in your condescending tone.

 

[GoonieFace]

With Matthews and Nylander signed for the next 5 and JT for 6, I could see why Marner would be hesitant about committing to 8

It's pretty sad that someone can actually turn down a 8yr contract for $80million dollars. This is a messed up world.

 

[MyBudJT]

Thanks but in not interested in your condescending tone.

And I don’t appreciate getting blamed for something I’m not doing!

 

[Walshy7]

Kinda reminds you of a certain Soldier, eh.

ah ye he does. "the splinter shoulder" he does have that kind of ring to him

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It's pretty sad that someone can actually turn down a 8yr contract for $80million dollars. This is a messed up world.

Ya I almost hope one of these big stars (on someone's else team lol) turns down a 8 year contract only to have a career ending injury like 2 years later.

These kids need some examples of what can happen if you dont sign long term.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

And playing a majority of the time with Matthew's didnt influence nylanders production?

Marner is a golden talent, Nylander is an excellent player, but not on marners level.

Marner drives production, Nylander compliments it.

Is marner worth 10/11 million a season?
Maybe not this season or next, but in 2 seasons, his contract will be a steal, if the cap continues to rise.

Is marner more important to the leafs than Nylander? Easily.

Is marner worth more than the percentage of the cap space that nylander now occupies? Imho .... yup.

Is Marner just as important as Matthew's? I think so.

Will Marner be worth the money he is seeking now? No, but as with every other player like this, you are paying for potential and probabilities.

Is Matthew's worth the money he is presently getting? No.

But once again, it is all about possibilities and potential.

A simple way I look at it is,
Instead of playing the all the numbers on a roulette wheel, as with some players and the extenuating perameters involved, it actually comes down to a red or black situation. 50- 50 odds.

I like those odds.

Marner has produced and continues to grow.
Nylander hasnt put up those type of numbers and to a point, neither has Matthew's because of injuries and playing time allotments that Babcock has deemed permissible.

Sign marner to a contract and just dont include a NMC, which I dont think he is allowed at this time re NHL bylaws and rules.

You can always trade him or any of the young 3 to fix the problem if they dont produce.

The leafs are only a injured Anderson away from missing the playoffs anyways.

Sign marner and move on. No matter who you try to replace Marner with, it will be step backwards IMHO.

Who said anything about Nylander? I actually agree with you. And has been stated many times, just because we overpaid for Matthews doesn't mean we have to continue with the same mistakes. And as much as I like Marner, he's just not as valuable as Matthews.

 

[IPS]

94 point wingers by U22 season is pretty well unprecedented

It's already been explained to you multiple times that Patrick Kane's 3rd year was essentially the equivalent to Marner's 3rd year when you take league scoring into account. And that's completely ignoring playoff performance. That's being real kind to Marner.

 

[Walshy7]

That’s not 4 first....

Now, let’s suppose he sits....do the Leafs just keep 10.6 million open in cap space waiting for him or do they spend it on other players?

what is different here to nylander in terms of sitting, is we need to fill out D and backup G (shouldn't be too expensive) where as with nyladner our roster was pretty much set minus nylander. Im not sure we can afford to just hold the money there for when mitch signs, we need to upgrade the team and go all out for the cu. With JT a year older, year 1 of Matthews 5 yr window, Nylander in yr 2 of his 6 yr deal. Im not sure we can wait as long as we did with willy.

Now saying all that perhaps that's what Marner camp see too and think he will cave soon.

I like marner but not at $11M+ call his bluff or move him

 

[MyBudJT]

It's already been explained to you multiple times that Patrick Kane's 3rd year was essentially the equivalent to Marner's 3rd year when you take league scoring into account. And that's completely ignoring playoff performance. That's being real kind to Marner.

Right, but 1) he didn’t reach the milsetone and 2) one example still fits under ‘pretty well unprecedented)

 

[Nineteen67]

what is different here to nylander in terms of sitting, is we need to fill out D and backup G (shouldn't be too expensive) where as with nyladner our roster was pretty much set minus nylander. Im not sure we can afford to just hold the money there for when mitch signs, we need to upgrade the team and go all out for the cu. With JT a year older, year 1 of Matthews 5 yr window, Nylander in yr 2 of his 6 yr deal. Im not sure we can wait as long as we did with willy.

Now saying all that perhaps that's what Marner camp see too and think he will cave soon.

I like marner but not at $11M+ call his bluff or move him

Sitting him isn’t really an option...

If you don’t hold the cap space another team could sweep in in November and sign him for 1 year 9 million and only give up 2nd tier compensation.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

what is different here to nylander in terms of sitting, is we need to fill out D and backup G (shouldn't be too expensive) where as with nyladner our roster was pretty much set minus nylander. Im not sure we can afford to just hold the money there for when mitch signs, we need to upgrade the team and go all out for the cu. With JT a year older, year 1 of Matthews 5 yr window, Nylander in yr 2 of his 6 yr deal. Im not sure we can wait as long as we did with willy.

Now saying all that perhaps that's what Marner camp see too and think he will cave soon.

I like marner but not at $11M+ call his bluff or move him

I don't think there is ANY real choice here. at 11M for Marner and then sign AJ, Kappy and add Russian kid thats a 20 man roster and only 0.3M left for last 3 guys. so we are not carring a full 23 man roster next season if Marners gets 11M. Marner at 10M or maybe 10.5M then we get to add another roster player.

 

[Trapper]

Nylander got 6.96.
I think 9.96 is more than fair for Marner.
30 more points, 3 mil more in his contract year. Higher than Kuch, lower than Matthews.

 

[Cor]

Marner's camp is risking a lot.

Turning down 8 years, 80 million is pretty bold.

What happens if Rantanen signs for 8 years, 76 million? There goes leverage. What happens if the offer-sheet market isn't as strong as they want it to be? What happens if Brayden Point signs a discounted deal with Tampa Bay? How can Marner suggest he is worth more than a center who out produced him? (and yes, we'd adjust Point's deal for Tax, even though it really isn't the difference maker some think it is) Aho's deal with CAR have apparently started around 8 years, 48 million.

You hear stories all the time of players turning down large offers, and then end up having to settle for less than what they were originally offered.

 

[Rymistri]

Ya I almost hope one of these big stars (on someone's else team lol) turns down a 8 year contract only to have a career ending injury like 2 years later.

These kids need some examples of what can happen if you dont sign long term.

and that is the risk. Look at Matthews. If I was him, I would have taken 8 years at the 11.6. He left at least 35ish million on the table. I am sure the thought is that in 5 years he can sign a new deal for 7/8 years at 15m + and more than make that $$ back. In 5 years he could also be rehabbing from his 4th for 5th shoulder injury.

 

[Cor]

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

That’s not 4 first....

Now, let’s suppose he sits....do the Leafs just keep 10.6 million open in cap space waiting for him or do they spend it on other players?

I didn't say it was. I said the Leafs offer mac 10 or take the compensation if he wants more than 10, u see the assumption it would be at least 500k above the Leafs offer of 10 in order for him to take the offer sheet

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Right, but 1) he didn’t reach the milsetone and 2) one example still fits under ‘pretty well unprecedented)

I mean Point started the year as a 22 year old and put up 92 points in 79 games and plays center yet I'm guessing he will be paid 1.5+ million less per year. Same with Rantanen who is 22 now and had two PPG+ seasons vs Mitch's one.

I agree with other posters, wait it out. If guys like Kap/Aj are fine with a handshake agreement I would wait until guys like Point, Rantanen, Connor etc sign as it will likely give the leafs more leverage to bring Marner's ask down.

 

[Walshy7]

Marner's camp is risking a lot.

Turning down 8 years, 80 million is pretty bold.

What happens if Rantanen signs for 8 years, 76 million? There goes leverage. What happens if the offer-sheet market isn't as strong as they want it to be? What happens if Brayden Point signs a discounted deal with Tampa Bay? How can Marner suggest he is worth more than a center who out produced him? (and yes, we'd adjust Point's deal for Tax, even though it really isn't the difference maker some think it is) Aho's deal with CAR have apparently started around 8 years, 48 million.

You hear stories all the time of players turning down large offers, and then end up having to settle for less than what they were originally offered.

Aho at $6M that would be an unreal deal, jealous if Carolina can get him that low

 

[IPS]

Marner's camp is risking a lot.

Turning down 8 years, 80 million is pretty bold.

What happens if Rantanen signs for 8 years, 76 million? There goes leverage. What happens if the offer-sheet market isn't as strong as they want it to be? What happens if Brayden Point signs a discounted deal with Tampa Bay? How can Marner suggest he is worth more than a center who out produced him? (and yes, we'd adjust Point's deal for Tax, even though it really isn't the difference maker some think it is) Aho's deal with CAR have apparently started around 8 years, 48 million.

You hear stories all the time of players turning down large offers, and then end up having to settle for less than what they were originally offered.

He can turn down the 8 years all he likes, I really don't care. But he better f***ing temper his demands for a 5 or 6 year deal. It's 100% unreasonable for him to be making anything even close to the 10-11 range on the shorter term.

 

[Marshy]

Sitting Marner is a non-starter if they want to keep him. Another reason is because you can't sign him for 10 M AAV in Nov or Dec. Just like Nylander, the AAV will be higher in year 1 the longer this goes (assuming Marner signs before Dec 1). The Leafs had room last year to wait it out they don't have it this year.

 

[Cor]

Aho at $6M that would be an unreal deal, jealous if Carolina can get him that low

That's reportedly what CAR's offer to him was.

It'll probably come in higher, but even 8x7M would be a good deal

 

[Walshy7]

Marner's camp is risking a lot.

Turning down 8 years, 80 million is pretty bold.

What happens if Rantanen signs for 8 years, 76 million? There goes leverage. What happens if the offer-sheet market isn't as strong as they want it to be? What happens if Brayden Point signs a discounted deal with Tampa Bay? How can Marner suggest he is worth more than a center who out produced him? (and yes, we'd adjust Point's deal for Tax, even though it really isn't the difference maker some think it is) Aho's deal with CAR have apparently started around 8 years, 48 million.

You hear stories all the time of players turning down large offers, and then end up having to settle for less than what they were originally offered.

no team is going to give up 4 1sts AND $11M~ in cap space, this leverage they think they have doesn't really exist and im glad dubas is calling their bluff. Really its a win win if a team is stupid enough to do it we get 4 x 1sts!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

and that is the risk. Look at Matthews. If I was him, I would have taken 8 years at the 11.6. He left at least 35ish million on the table. I am sure the thought is that in 5 years he can sign a new deal for 7/8 years at 15m + and more than make that $$ back. In 5 years he could also be rehabbing from his 4th for 5th shoulder injury.

Yup, the risk for Matthews is even higher with his rumored shoulder/back problems.

Lol I'm sure Ferris is pissed Dubas didnt cave as he would have gotten his client an unbelievable contract and a fireable offense for Dubas