Post-Game Talk: Oilers win by the Skin of their teeth

[CantHaveTkachev]

It's too bad this org can't ever make quick changes. They just sit on things until they are rotten. If this was Patrick Alvin, he would have had a goalie at least 1 week ago

Why do quick changes? people said the same thing about Mike Smith in 21-22 and then he caught fire in February and was lights out in most games

people said the same thing about Skinner last year, then his save % normalized and he was good the rest of the way

it costs valuable assets to bring in another goalie, and we have precious few
it costs cap space too, which we also have very little of

Skinner is what he is...average, but he's paid to be average

if you want elite goaltending, it'll cost big money

 

[ZJuice]

I just applied at the OEG since I had so much fun last night. No response yet, do I follow up directly with Katz at [email protected] ?

Seriously though if anyone works in the OEG and can help my chances, DM me!

 

[brentashton]

Why do quick changes? people said the same thing about Mike Smith in 21-22 and then he caught fire in February and was lights out in most games

people said the same thing about Skinner last year, then his save % normalized and he was good the rest of the way

it costs valuable assets to bring in another goalie, and we have precious few
it costs cap space too, which we also have very little of

Skinner is what he is...average, but he's paid to be average

if you want elite goaltending, it'll cost big money

Yup. It doesn’t have to be quick nor does it have to be change for the sake of change.

Be surgical and methodical and make the changes you need to make meaningful and purposeful adjustments. Especially with limited resources.

That’s why it sometimes takes time to make the optimal change.

Some posters here just want a change in roster every second day because it suggests things are happening. (Right Jimmi?)

 

[fireantz]

Imagine if we had an actual goalie

We could be 15-1 like Winnipeg

It's fun to think about

Ridiculous! They’ve scored 73 we’ve scored 44 but it’s all Stu’s fault

 

[Whyme]

This capture is abit deceptive. Go back slightly and one can see a clear quality shooting lane for the puck carrier with gap separation from Bouchard. Skinner is set for the shot. Islander instead feeds the open winger who rifles a one-timer to score.

Not absolving Skinner of largely mediocre goaltending but that’s a solid play leveraging coverage gaps to rip a Bang Bang one-timer on net.

Skinner’s puck handling is poor. He too often creates chaos pushing pucks out into danger areas and is challeged with lateral movement. Oil need consistent read and react in the crease.

I see your point but in this case see this differently. I used to be a goalie myself, obviously not quite at the NHL level, but do pay special attention to these. First of all Skinner often plays himself out of the proper angle or gets too far out in wrong moments. Not always but quite frequently. In this case that wasn't the worst I've seen but it did feel to me Skinner hadn't read the play and seen the possibility of a pass.

Even if we forget that the worst part in this goal was how he kicked himself to the wrong direction that made his angle terrible, one where he couldn't slide to the side without first correcting his angle. I mean he couldn't go sidewards without a corrective move.

But I hate to seem like I try to correct others, especially solid long time posters, but I feel confident in this one particular goal Skinner didn't do well at all. Other than that it's mainly highlightes and just occasional games to me so I tend to be the annoying one that only catches the mistakes.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I see your point but in this case see this differently. I used to be a goalie myself, obviously not quite at the NHL level, but do pay special attention to these. First of all Skinner often plays himself out of the proper angle or gets too far out in wrong moments. Not always but quite frequently. In this case that wasn't the worst I've seen but it did feel to me Skinner hadn't read the play and seen the possibility of a pass.

Even if we forget that the worst part in this goal was how he kicked himself to the wrong direction that made his angle terrible, one where he couldn't slide to the side without first correcting his angle. I mean he couldn't go sidewards without a corrective move.

But I hate to seem like I try to correct others, especially solid long time posters, but I feel confident in this one particular goal Skinner didn't do well at all. Other than that it's mainly highlightes and just occasional games to me so I tend to be the annoying one that only catches the mistakes.

Yes, we do see it differently and that’s all good. Skinner aggressively cuts down the angle through his postioning square to a threat in prime scoring position. Unfortunately weak side support is late and the wing gets away a hard, accuate one-timer that few goaltenders would have athleticism and reaction time to stop. Islanders took advantage of soft gap and late coverage to execute an excellent finishing opportunity.

I’ve noted my concerns with Skinner’s games and erratic elements which create a chaos effect for team defending support. This situation was a well executed play.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

I think the only sane thing to do is to still put most of the blame on Cody Ceci
where the f was he all night!!!

 

[FunkyChicken]

I think the only sane thing to do is to still put most of the blame on Cody Ceci
where the f was he all night!!!

If you don't notice Ceci, means he's had a good game.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Why do quick changes? people said the same thing about Mike Smith in 21-22 and then he caught fire in February and was lights out in most games

people said the same thing about Skinner last year, then his save % normalized and he was good the rest of the way

it costs valuable assets to bring in another goalie, and we have precious few
it costs cap space too, which we also have very little of

Skinner is what he is...average, but he's paid to be average

if you want elite goaltending, it'll cost big money

He is not average though. He is bottom of the barrel.

Are people just purposely ignoring all of the stats showing how bad he is on a good defensive team?

Are they scared he reads HFboards or something?
Make it make sense.

 

[Whyme]

Yes, we do see it differently and that’s all good. Skinner aggressively cuts down the angle through his postioning square to a threat in prime scoring position. Unfortunately weak side support is late and the wing gets away a hard, accuate one-timer that few goaltenders would have athleticism and reaction time to stop. Islanders took advantage of soft gap and late coverage to execute an excellent finishing opportunity.

I’ve noted my concerns with Skinner’s games and erratic elements which create a chaos effect for team defending support. This situation was a well executed play.

Yes it's sometimes nice to talk about these, maybe even back and forth a bit, and know it's nothing more serious than seeing it differently. I still checked this again and put some more photo samples.

1. When the shot is expected to come his off positioned, too far to the left
2. He's kicked himself towards to the opposite goal and somehow now has a clearly worse angle to do anything. Hard to understand and justify this rotation.
3. Now he's fixed his angle, but lost crucial way during the steps 2 and 3 so he's too late to catch the shot.

 

[iCanada]

Why do quick changes? people said the same thing about Mike Smith in 21-22 and then he caught fire in February and was lights out in most games

people said the same thing about Skinner last year, then his save % normalized and he was good the rest of the way

it costs valuable assets to bring in another goalie, and we have precious few
it costs cap space too, which we also have very little of

Skinner is what he is...average, but he's paid to be average

if you want elite goaltending, it'll cost big money

Who said anything about elite goaltending?

I'm over here begging for league average.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

If you look at the top 5 teams in GF/G, where that 9%/12%/9% is (middle and faceoff circles), they have more shots there than the blueline (3/4/3 area)

Edmonton though....They have more shots from the blueline areas than all 3 of those middle areas.

Something we all know, but nice to compare. Too much perimeter play. THey don't set up enough for shots in that medium danger zone.

Coach needs to tell these fools to start shooting from there. Guys like SKinner should be finding seams there for one timers

 

[FunkyChicken]

Yes it's sometimes nice to talk about these, maybe even back and forth a bit, and know it's nothing more serious than seeing it differently. I still checked this again and put some more photo samples.

1. When the shot is expected to come his off positioned, too far to the left
2. He's kicked himself towards to the opposite goal and somehow now has a clearly worse angle to do anything. Hard to understand and justify this rotation.
3. Now he's fixed his angle, but lost crucial way during the steps 2 and 3 so he's too late to catch the shot.

He doesn't have the athletic ability to recover from technical mistakes like other goalies.
There have been a lot of big goalies with limited athletic ability that survive on being technically sounds, unfortunately he loses form quite often.
Look at the third goal. Left pad should have been flat across the crease, but he actually pulled his leg in just prior to the shot.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Who said anything about elite goaltending?

I'm over here begging for league average.

He was average last year after a slow start

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

He is not average though. He is bottom of the barrel.

Are people just purposely ignoring all of the stats showing how bad he is on a good defensive team?

Are they scared he reads HFboards or something?
Make it make sense.

Meh, people were crying at this time last year about goaltending and it recovered
But yes, let’s pull a knee-jerk trade like Chia would

 

[bone]

I mean if you say everyone makes one mistake there, Stuart makes at least two so he’s still primarily to blame.

Hard to disagree.

His puck handling is very poor. Thats a major concern for sure.
I cringe every time he handles the puck.

That said...in terms of his rebound control on that specific play...could have been better but we are talking about a few feet.
The bigger issue was the total and absolute defensive meltdown for that entire 5 man unit.
That was embarassing IMO. Not even AHL level defenesive awareness/execution.

That's the thing with that goal. I can't disagree with those blaming the entire team because so much went wrong there and I can't disagree with those blaming Skinner more than the others.

Hopefully that 10 second sequence helps with a lot of teaching.

 

[bone]

Why do quick changes? people said the same thing about Mike Smith in 21-22 and then he caught fire in February and was lights out in most games

people said the same thing about Skinner last year, then his save % normalized and he was good the rest of the way

it costs valuable assets to bring in another goalie, and we have precious few
it costs cap space too, which we also have very little of

Skinner is what he is...average, but he's paid to be average

if you want elite goaltending, it'll cost big money

Ultimately I don't think going into the year with Skinner again was the bad choice. The bad choice was doing nothing for insurance. Last year, Pickard was the insurance which was a bad bet that fortunately didn't burn them too badly because they sheltered him well.

This year there is no insurance unless you want to rely on a 24 year old AHLer with average to decent numbers in the AHL and 0 games NHL experience or Delia who's an even worse bet than Pickard was last year.

 

[guymez]

Hard to disagree.


That's the thing with that goal. I can't disagree with those blaming the entire team because so much went wrong there and I can't disagree with those blaming Skinner more than the others.

Hopefully that 10 second sequence helps with a lot of teaching.

I couldnt agree more with the bolded.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Yes it's sometimes nice to talk about these, maybe even back and forth a bit, and know it's nothing more serious than seeing it differently. I still checked this again and put some more photo samples.

1. When the shot is expected to come his off positioned, too far to the left
2. He's kicked himself towards to the opposite goal and somehow now has a clearly worse angle to do anything. Hard to understand and justify this rotation.
3. Now he's fixed his angle, but lost crucial way during the steps 2 and 3 so he's too late to catch the shot.

A good reference point would be the Bouchard goal. It's roughly the same shooting angle from mid-circle flank which beats an elite goaltender set in position without movement. The Palmeri goal is a similar shooting angle, slightly deeper, but utilizes puck movement from a prime high danger area to an Islander sniper who hammers in an accurate one-timer beating a goaltender who is forced to move laterally.

Helping to look at who that shooter is. Palmeri's NHL Edge stats reveal a player with top shot speed of 100 MPH (97 percentile), 13.8% shooting avg (81 percentile) and 30 goal player utilizing last year's data. Current season small sample Palmeri is 96.55 MPH shot speed (98 percentile), 16.7% shooting avg (72 percentile) and 7 goals in 14 games.

This was a goal scorer's goal. As was Bouchard's quality shot that beat a stationary elite goaltender (low glove).

 

[Cloned]

A good reference point would be the Bouchard goal. It's roughly the same shooting angle from mid-circle flank which beats an elite goaltender set in position without movement. The Palmeri goal is a similar shooting angle, slightly deeper, but utilizes puck movement from a prime high danger area to an Islander sniper who hammers in an accurate one-timer beating a goaltender who is forced to move laterally.

Helping to look at who that shooter is. Palmeri's NHL Edge stats reveal a player with top shot speed of 100 MPH (97 percentile), 13.8% shooting avg (81 percentile) and 30 goal player utilizing last year's data. Current season small sample Palmeri is 96.55 MPH shot speed (98 percentile), 16.7% shooting avg (72 percentile) and 7 goals in 14 games.

This was a goal scorer's goal. As was Bouchard's quality shot that beat a stationary elite goaltender (low glove).


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There’s a difference between a goalie giving himself the best chance to stop a shot with good technique but still getting beat anyway because of an elite shot, and a goalie not even giving himself the best chance to stop any shot because of poor technique.

 

[Soundwave]

Meh, people were crying at this time last year about goaltending and it recovered
But yes, let’s pull a knee-jerk trade like Chia would

No one's saying make a massive trade, at the very least we should be exploring buy low options. Vegas did with Adin Hill, what did they pay to bring him in?

Because they did that little bit of extra work they have a Stanley Cup to show for it.

This team is LAZY when it comes to goaltending, have been the entire McDavid era. The only good option they've ever given McDavid aside from a 39 year old Mike Smith who couldn't last past 1 or 2 playoff rounds was a freebie they got given from Glen Sather, otherwise they wouldn't have shit.

There IS likely several buy low candidates who would be better than freaking 72nd league wide for GSAA. Many guys are and they don't have the luxury of playing on a team that doesn't allow a lot of high danger chances against.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

There’s a difference between a goalie giving himself the best chance to stop a shot with good technique but still getting beat anyway because of an elite shot, and a goalie not even giving himself the best chance to stop any shot because of poor technique.

I credit elite shots/shooters for both goals. The biggest difference in two goals in question is the Oilers soft gap control by Bouchard (after Ekholm gambled at the blueline to create an odd man rush) and their wing support also caught up the ice gave two wide open, high end scoring opportunities - the one that Skinner squared up to stop and then the smart dish to an elite shooter who wired a quality one-timer with no defender threat. The elite NYI tender got beat low glove with a decent defender gapped up to Bouchard.

Very few goaltenders have the athletic ability and flexibility to move laterally to stop the Palmeri one-timer. It's certainly not going to be Skinner facing down two wide open high danger shooter options. Smart dish to feed the Islander's hard shooting, accurate sniper (backed by NHLEdge metrics).

Want to talk big picture. I can agree. But looking at the specific situations last night we'll disagree.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Say what you will about the Leaves... but they made a very nice pickup when they acquired Stolarz.. he's had solid numbers in a backup role for many years... and over the past 3 seasons (this year plus the past 2)... he's 90.3% in all situations on medium danger shots and 85.7% in all situations on high danger shots. Both of those are very good numbers, That's the type of a pickup where you make hay... looking for those players slightly under the radar and trying to improve your team incrementally with those moneypuck type moves. In this case the Make Believes paid $2.5 million on a proven backup who might just be a 1A if given the chance... at a price of $2.5 million per for 2 years... so the contract isn't even tragic if he absolutely tanks.

Compare that to an "Oilers move" of getting Campbell (who really wasn't any more proven) and paying him $5 million for a billion years... and now having to eat the cost of buying out that shitty contract for 4 more years when he's not even in the NHL any more.

 

[Whyme]

A good reference point would be the Bouchard goal. It's roughly the same shooting angle from mid-circle flank which beats an elite goaltender set in position without movement. The Palmeri goal is a similar shooting angle, slightly deeper, but utilizes puck movement from a prime high danger area to an Islander sniper who hammers in an accurate one-timer beating a goaltender who is forced to move laterally.

Helping to look at who that shooter is. Palmeri's NHL Edge stats reveal a player with top shot speed of 100 MPH (97 percentile), 13.8% shooting avg (81 percentile) and 30 goal player utilizing last year's data. Current season small sample Palmeri is 96.55 MPH shot speed (98 percentile), 16.7% shooting avg (72 percentile) and 7 goals in 14 games.

This was a goal scorer's goal. As was Bouchard's quality shot that beat a stationary elite goaltender (low glove).


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Thank you for the reply and the photos! However, these photos miss the useless sideways turn that took crucial time which is why Skinner is so badly late at the time of the shot. The strange movement can be clearly seen from the video and others have noticed it too here.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

No one's saying make a massive trade, at the very least we should be exploring buy low options. Vegas did with Adin Hill, what did they pay to bring him in?

weird you mention Adin Hill and his .879 save %, who's worse than Skinner this year

There IS likely several buy low candidates who would be better than freaking 72nd league wide for GSAA. Many guys are and they don't have the luxury of playing on a team that doesn't allow a lot of high danger chances against.

throwing assets at "maybes" is just as risky as allowing Skinner to work himself out of it