Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VI | Marner Reportedly Turns Down 8 Year Term

[ORRFForever]

I think ALL deals should be a maximum of 5 years.

 

[Stamkos4life]

normalized production is certainly a factor, position is a big factor as well. It's not a single-factor formula by any means though


Matthews doesn't make McDavid money or close to it, McDavid makes over $13M factoring in the year of cap inflation. AAV is a bad comparison for players signing in different years, % of cap is better

I personally think there is much more involved in determining a players worth then just ppg over elc. How old were they? Who did they play with? Were they sheltered? Did they progress over the 3 years?

McDavid signed for 8 years at 16.67% of the cap.

Auston signed for 5 years at 14.63%.

How much would you say those 3 years are worth? I'd say at least 1-1.5%, maybe even more.

 

[Randy Randerson]

The narrative changes based on whatever leaf overpayment we're discussing.

Nylander: Total elc points matter most and ppg matter most. 3rd elc year is no more important than any other elc year. Goals are no more significant than points.

Matthews: Total points and goals don't matter in the slightest, and neither does ppg. It's all just 5v5 goals/60. That's all that matters. We can safetly ignore quite literally every other stat. 73 points career high? Who cares. 5v5 g/60.

Marner: You know that e5v5 goals/60 that mattered more than anything eles in the world for Matthews? Well... they're useless now. They don't matter in the slightest. Neither do the first 2 elc years that mattered so much for Nylander. It's just the actual real point totals on elc year 3. That's it. 94 points. Goals? Those are for chumps. Nobody gets paid for goals.

I have absolutely no idea how so many leaf fans can take the above stance on all 3 players with a straight face. I just don't understand how they don't see the hypocrisy.

All of this spin is done in order to rationalize a rookie gm that doesn't know what he's doing. It will just hurt far too much for everyone to just admit that Dubas pretty much ruined this rebuild with these dramatic overpayments. So instead of facing reality, absolutely absurd contradictory narratives are created.

I'm not a fan of either signing, but "dramatic overpayments" is an exaggeration. You would have liked to save $500k on Nylander and maybe $500k-$1M on Matthews for the same term, Dubas also saved more than that combined on Tavares against another offer that JT was free to take.

I will agree that an AAV at or above $11M, and especially one that's less than 8 years, is a dramatic overpayment for Marner though, and I hope that Dubas plays chicken all the way

Of course Matthews does...in 5 years when Matthews renews his contract at what? $15 million plus per? What percentage of the cap would that be, while McDavid is still only making $12.5 million against that new cap.

I'm not a fan of the contract, but that guy just forgot to account for cap inflation

 

[Randy Randerson]

I personally think there is much more involved in determining a players worth then just ppg over elc. How old were they? Who did they play with? Were they sheltered? Did they progress over the 3 years?

McDavid signed for 8 years at 16.67% of the cap.

Auston signed for 5 years at 14.63%.

How much would you say those 3 years are worth? I'd say at least 1-1.5%, maybe even more.

I agree with that, I do think there are some basic criteria that tier players though - position, production at the top of the list. So Nylander definitely tiered between Ehlers & Pastrnak, I would have liked to see him closer to the middle of that range but maybe he got some premium for the possibility that he can play center where the other two didn't have that

I think Matthews on 8 years would have still been under McDavid's % of cap, around the same range that you're saying, and I wish we'd gotten those years

 

[robertmac43]

Asking for that kind of money is annoying but at this point its to be expected with young athletes. Its happening more and more across all sports it seems.

Just unfortunate i is happening again in Toronto.

 

[Stamkos4life]

The narrative changes based on whatever leaf overpayment we're discussing.

Nylander: Total elc points matter most and ppg matter most. 3rd elc year is no more important than any other elc year. Goals are no more significant than points.

Matthews: Total points and goals don't matter in the slightest, and neither does ppg. It's all just 5v5 goals/60. That's all that matters. We can safetly ignore quite literally every other stat. 73 points career high? Who cares. 5v5 g/60.

Marner: You know that e5v5 goals/60 that mattered more than anything eles in the world for Matthews? Well... they're useless now. They don't matter in the slightest. Neither do the first 2 elc years that mattered so much for Nylander. It's just the actual real point totals on elc year 3. That's it. 94 points. Goals? Those are for chumps. Nobody gets paid for goals.

I have absolutely no idea how so many leaf fans can take the above stance on all 3 players with a straight face. I just don't understand how they don't see the hypocrisy.

All of this spin is done in order to rationalize a rookie gm that doesn't know what he's doing. It will just hurt far too much for everyone to just admit that Dubas pretty much ruined this rebuild with these dramatic overpayments. So instead of facing reality, absolutely absurd contradictory narratives are created.

We have to be careful because most posters aren't flipping between all 3 players.

But, imo, the posters who think the matthews and nylander contract are fine seem to be the most hypocritical.

 

[Superstar]

I'm not a fan of either signing, but "dramatic overpayments" is an exaggeration. You would have liked to save $500k on Nylander and maybe $500k-$1M on Matthews for the same term, Dubas also saved more than that combined on Tavares against another offer that JT was free to take.

I will agree that an AAV at or above $11M, and especially one that's less than 8 years, is a dramatic overpayment for Marner though, and I hope that Dubas plays chicken all the way


I'm not a fan of the contract, but that guy just forgot to account for cap inflation

I agree that Dubas needs to play chicken...I think Marner has alot more lose if he gets traded, while the Leafs will still get a great return.

 

[Canadian Finn]

Asking for that kind of money is annoying but at this point its to be expected with young athletes. Its happening more and more across all sports it seems.

Just unfortunate i is happening again in Toronto.

Not just in sports either.

The Youth of today have a sense of entitlement (otherwise known as "future abilities").

I do think it is going to even out however.

 

[biotk]

As other posters have pointed out, Nylander is too valuable to not play with Matthews/Tavares.

What we need is a 1.5 million C who is strong on the D side of the puck, can PK/face off well and has a decent GF/GA per 60 ratio.

The list for that isn't too long.

Glendening
Jankowski (thought he was paid more)

That is probably it.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I hope your right, I've always felt there was a deal that was acceptable for everybody involved but things are getting uglier than I like already

This much stuff in the media isn't a positive development imo

Things are only ugly in the media.
I don't see team Marner harming the brand, nor team Leafs harming reputation by leaking stuff.
Kid is in how many commercials? How many will he land as the greedy lil piggy? What cost is that alone per year?
His agent gets a cut of all that... he isn't that dumb... or at least one would hope. He has decent clients.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I agree that Dubas needs to play chicken...I think Marner has alot more lose if he gets traded, while the Leafs will still get a great return.

Absolutely. We match anything under the 4x1st compensation threshold, you probably let him go to any team that has the space for him and their 1st picks for the next 4 years because they probably aren't that good and they'll be over-committed to a winger on the cap then go get a Panarin/Hall as a UFA with that money, and offer sheets just aren't that common so if Marner doesn't get one his negotiating position softens considerably

 

[robertmac43]

Not just in sports either.

The Youth of today have a sense of entitlement (otherwise known as "future abilities").

I do think it is going to even out however.

I wasn't really going for this narrative. I was thinking more along the lines that athletes are fizzling out earlier as younger players are becoming better at younger ages. They got to get as many big pay days as they can in their short period as a pro.

 

[Superstar]

Asking for that kind of money is annoying but at this point its to be expected with young athletes. Its happening more and more across all sports it seems.

Just unfortunate i is happening again in Toronto.

Apparently, players could choose their own comparables now...maybe Marner thinks he's Kawhi Leonard and that's his new comparable...

 

[Canadian Finn]

I wasn't really going for this narrative. I was thinking more along the lines that athletes are fizzling out earlier as younger players are becoming better at younger ages. They got to get as many big pay days as they can in their short period as a pro.

but it goes beyond professional sports.

you see it every day.

youth wanting to be paid for "future potential"....not past achievements.

I don't believe this trend is unique to professional sports.

 

[Trapper]

The list for that isn't too long.

Glendening
Jankowski (thought he was paid more)

That is probably it.

Well maybe you pick up a Glendening for now as a stopgap and get a young C that needs a year or 2 for Kadri.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Apparently, players could choose their own comparables now...maybe Marner thinks he's Kawhi Leonard and that's his new comparable...

why stay within the sports world? - Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, maybe a Koch brother...

 

[Notsince67]

 

[robertmac43]

but it goes beyond professional sports.

you see it every day.

youth wanting to be paid for "future abilities"....not past achievements.

I don't know I think it a lot of every day jobs the understanding is still you work to go up the corporate pyramid and get increased pay upon proving yourself.

 

[Kiwi]

Things are only ugly in the media.
I don't see team Marner harming the brand, nor team Leafs harming reputation by leaking stuff.
Kid is in how many commercials? How many will he land as the greedy lil piggy? What cost is that alone per year?
His agent gets a cut of all that... he isn't that dumb... or at least one would hope. He has decent clients.

I would have agreed with you if it hadn't already kicked off

Nobody is blameless in all this but Marner's old man and agent talking to the media wasn't exactly brand affirming and the Dreger stuff really hurt

I'm not saying that was deliberately leaked by the Marner camp but I do doubt Dreger came up with visiting other cities on his own and that really didn't help Marner’s cause

 

[Superstar]

why stay within the sports world? - Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, maybe a Koch brother...

"I'm a god!" That must be the new mantra.

 

[Stamkos4life]

I agree with that, I do think there are some basic criteria that tier players though - position, production at the top of the list. So Nylander definitely tiered between Ehlers & Pastrnak, I would have liked to see him closer to the middle of that range but maybe he got some premium for the possibility that he can play center where the other two didn't have that

I think Matthews on 8 years would have still been under McDavid's % of cap, around the same range that you're saying, and I wish we'd gotten those years

Pasta should have gotten the premium for goal scoring (or so I'm told) and for actually showing progression. Nylander simply was given more then he deserves.

I'm not sure how much of a fact this is but I remember hearing that auston wanted 13+mil on an 8 year deal so he definitely wanted ~McDavid money.

I'm not a fan of the contract, but that guy just forgot to account for cap inflation

I didn't forget anything.

When Auston's contract is up he will sign for 15+ mil. That means he will have made at least 103mil after 8 years while McDavid will have made a clean 100mil.

He is signed for basically McDavid money, which is what I said.

 

[HolyCrap]

You would think a guy like Sid in his profession would know that the NHL has a hard salary cap. Exactly why the guy is a meathead. I could ask my boss for whatever I want and he would say pound salt or find someone who will pay it.

It’s not like Mitch has led us to the promise land.

 

[Kiwi]

So he should ask for a bajillion dollars then?

What am I thinking, he should demand a unicorn

 

[Mr Hockey]

Trade him please.

11m winger is a joke.

He is not your average winger, he is always around the puck, driving the line, hustles back, PP,PK amd play against any line ...

 

[Gabriel426]

Not just in sports either.

The Youth of today have a sense of entitlement (otherwise known as "future abilities").

I do think it is going to even out however.

I think it has more with Social Media. They might post much but they look at them non stop. They are all pretty much me first and want everything they want NOW.
They don’t know how to be patience and think they are smarter and better than everyone around them.
Although I admire their confidence but they really lack the human approach or looking at the bigger picture.
BTW, I am talking about Youth in General instead of Hockey Players.
In Hockey, I just think due to parity, it is a lot easier for younger players to be the main stars on their teams bc that their teams just lack talents due to tanking or just bad draft and development. Look at the playoffs and you will see that teams with older players tend to perform better. I said in the playoffs that despite making playoffs 3 straight years, the Leafs is still a very young and inexperienced teams as 9 of their 12 forwards had 3 yrs or less NHL experiences.