Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LXXXVII: What An Ugly Number

[blackjackmulligan]

This is actually easily verified fact.

Of course it is everything you say is a fact. All good here.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Of course it is everything you say is a fact. All good here.

Are you seriously unaware of how many people in Flyers management are directly tied to Clarke? It's almost everyone, and it's why nobody gets fired for years of failure.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

So Fletcher let his ego get in the way of making the best move for the team?

Yep. Very Clarkeish. Your defense of Fletcher makes him look worse.

Nothing to do with ego except in your world.

Fletcher decided to move on. He didn't want Giroux back at whatever terms Giroux was trying to force on him. He went in another direction.

There is no defense. I have said repeatedly he is a terrible GM. Will never get another GM job when he walks/ or is fired. Unlike you I can be objective and give out criticism when it is warranted.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'm wary of signing a player off his peak season, but there were extenuating circumstances, they knew Patrick was damaged goods, Holmgren/Scott had established a bias for action (the half-assed rebuild was over), and the only centers available were Hayes, Duchene and Pavelski at 35 (and unlikely to sign with an East Coast team).

Hayes struggled his first year here, came out like gang busters his second season before he was injured, and finished strong once he got healthy, But that three year average from 2017-19 is probably closer to his "norm" than the last three years - both include his "off" first year as a Flyer, which balances out his peak season. Even if you split the difference, 1.85 pp/60 would put him toward the high end of 2C range.

Was he overpaid? Sure. Still a better deal than what St Louis gave to retain Schenn.
Pre-COVID contracts were mostly overpays post-COVID, look at Voracek at $8.25M, or JVR at $7M.

I would take 30 year old Hayes at 100% over 35 year old Giroux at center without hesitation - G is a much better player at wing than center these days, he's a complementary player, but he's not the player he was a decade age when he was a top center. Hayes when healthy can drive play, he's good at zone entry and puck possession even if he's an average playmaker.

I am curious to see how Torts interacts with Hayes, Torts will probably push him to focus more and improve his play without the puck, which is where Hayes needs to improve.

For some scope of what I mean with regard to Hayes, here are his Evolving Hockey Goals Above Replacement and xGAR totals by year. The last two columns are the Offensive and Defensive components that make up part of GAR. You'll see why I included those two specifically.

Season	xGAR	Total GAR	Offensive GAR	Defensive GAR
14-15 Rangers	8.2	5.5	5.9	0.2
15-16	2.7	2.7	6.1	-3.4
16-17	0.5	2.6	5.8	-3.8
17-18	9.7	1.9	6.6	-4.6
18-19 Rangers/Jets	10	13.9	8.4	3.5
19-20 Flyers	3.3	-1	0.1	0.4
20-21	-1.4	0	2.5	-2.4
21-22	-3.3	2.1	4	-2.7

When you break down how much of that career year was defensive impact that has never shown up at any other time, I don't think including that year as a measure of a norm is defensible. Signs of an offensive bouncing back, yes. But still not toward that peak.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Nothing to do with ego except in your world.

Fletcher decided to move on. He didn't want Giroux back at whatever terms Giroux was trying to force on him. He went in another direction.

There is no defense. I have said repeatedly he is a terrible GM. Will never get another GM job when he walks/ or is fired. Unlike you I can be objective and give out criticism when it is warranted.

Moving on from Giroux and minimizing return for him in the process is a bad move. It's not worth defending.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The thing I didn't look at when figuring out my thoughts on Hayes' signing at the time was his impact on linemates. I would have probably opposed the signing had I known he suppressed production of linemates. I didn't look and do I ended up being wrong about the move.

 

[landsbergfan]

*not fact checked just thought was funny

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

The NHL continues to show they are a mickey mouse league led by a clown.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

The mandate was win now, & they don’t have their best season & first playoff round win in 8 years if they don’t sign Hayes in 19/20.

Unfortunately he’s been hurt most of & had multiple surgeries over the last two seasons.

Even before the surgeries he's never been worth of a 7.1 million dollar contract, certainly not a 7 year deal either, that was pure stupidity

So to get an expanded list the GM would have had to kiss Clodes ass and meet his condition's. Got it.

He was smart to refuse.

Yeah so smart we end up with a first that may not come until 2025 and Tippett, great gm work

 

[Magua]

The thing I keep coming back to is, how did the entire league know that Giroux wouldn't accept a trade anywhere else? There's been no report that Giroux's camp was allowed to talk to other teams, so that leaves only one legal route - Fletcher.

Even if only one team can be the winner, why tell them and take away the ability to leverage other teams into getting you more? Even if Colorado offers a better package, you stand up in your PC and say this was the package you preferred, and that dovetailed with Giroux's preference to be in Florida, so you were happy to trade him to a place he wanted to be. There may be some hurt feelings, but maybe other teams will stop treating you like a goddamn doormat all the time.

Giroux's people could've talked to other teams through media sources. If we're to believe that he wanted some handshake agreement that he would be back the following season, and he felt jilted and disgruntled at the lack of one, then we're approaching plausibility. It felt like everyone knew he wasn't coming back when he got traded; it wasn't even hinted at as an option pre-free agency, through people like LeBrun. I read the argument: "Why would Giroux want to re-sign here anyway? He wants to go to a contender." Now, putting aside athletes being delusional with how competitive their teams are, I think Ottawa could be fun.......but serious contender they're probably not. It showed you that Giroux prioritized family and comfort. Everything jibes.

Controlling the flow of information (and the spin of it) is one of the most important jobs of a GM. That Fletcher is an open book, with every single move he has made being telegraphed through the media, is a blinking red light of incompetence. It's certainly plausible he would also admit to Florida that Giroux only wants Florida. He didn't have to trade Giroux for a 1st 3 years away (Tippett is almost a negative asset to me). If this milquetoast man, a pushover for everyone else, wanted to insult a franchise great, he could've just gone all the way and told him Florida's not good enough, ball is in your court. And we now know he didn't have a plan to get Gaudreau with the cap savings. There's no path where Fletcher comes out looking savvy.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Oskar getting bought out and then replaced with lousy players should not sit well with anyone with a clue.

 

[deadhead]

Holmgren is not GM of the team, nor is he micromanaging anything.

You also can't have it both ways by insisting the Flyers under Fletcher are well managed and are comparable to the likes of Colorado, while also claiming Holmgren is a puppet master driving the team into the dirt due to mismanagement. Doesn't compute.

Holmgren was the VP who advised Scott, hired Fletcher and set the "mandate for action" in 2018.

Whether he's still as involved 4 years later, he set the strategy that Fletcher executed, and convinced Scott that the team was good enough to compete now.

And them are facts.

And if Charlie is correct, the FO insisted on a "name" HC this summer, which meant Torts, Maurice or . . .

 

[ajgoal]

Giroux's people could've talked to other teams through media sources. If we're to believe that he wanted some handshake agreement that he would be back the following season, and he felt jilted and disgruntled at the lack of one, then we're approaching plausibility.

Fair.

 

[deadhead]

Giroux's people could've talked to other teams through media sources. If we're to believe that he wanted some handshake agreement that he would be back the following season, and he felt jilted and disgruntled at the lack of one, then we're approaching plausibility. It felt like everyone knew he wasn't coming back when he got traded; it wasn't even hinted at as an option pre-free agency, through people like LeBrun. I read the argument: "Why would Giroux want to re-sign here anyway? He wants to go to a contender." Now, putting aside athletes being delusional with how competitive their teams are, I think Ottawa could be fun.......but serious contender they're probably not. It showed you that Giroux prioritized family and comfort. Everything jibes.

Controlling the flow of information (and the spin of it) is one of the most important jobs of a GM. That Fletcher is an open book, with every single move he has made being telegraphed through the media, is a blinking red light of incompetence. It's certainly plausible he would also admit to Florida that Giroux only wants Florida. He didn't have to trade Giroux for a 1st 3 years away (Tippett is almost a negative asset to me). If this milquetoast man, a pushover for everyone else, wanted to insult a franchise great, he could've just gone all the way and told him Florida's not good enough, ball is in your court. And we now know he didn't have a plan to get Gaudreau with the cap savings. There's no path where Fletcher comes out looking savvy.

He wasn't going to screw over G. That wouldn't have been wrong, and send an awful signal to players and fans.
Ottawa is a young and upcoming team where G can be the senior statesman, playing in front of friends and family.

Nor was he going to get some huge return for G, Colorado would have been a 2023 1st (probably late 20s) and Barron and another asset, they were never going to include Byrum or Newhook, whom they saw as part of a SC push. Same with Boston or any other suitor.

If Fletcher wanted JG, he would have retained the cap room to sign him. Which tells me they're doing a stealth rebuild, I think when Risto was resigned the FO hadn't accepted that the team wasn't competitive, but by the end of the season wiser heads prevailed. The fact that Fletcher wouldn't move JVR at a premium supports that theory, JG is worth a 1st rd pick for a team with Cup aspirations.

TDA is a 2 year deal that doesn't impact a rebuild, if he works out you got a top D-man who you may be able to resign at a discount (hometown boy and other teams wary that he might not fit as well there), if it doesn't, you can move him or at worst bought two years to develop your young D-men. He's not a 7 year commitment like JG.

I think they'll re-evaluate strategy at the end of the season, if Torts comes in and says you don't have the horses, they'll have to accept reality. However, if Torts can get a number of young players to raise their game, then they may be closer to being competitive than they looked last year.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Holmgren was the VP who advised Scott, hired Fletcher and set the "mandate for action" in 2018.

Whether he's still as involved 4 years later, he set the strategy that Fletcher executed, and convinced Scott that the team was good enough to compete now.

And them are facts.

And if Charlie is correct, the FO insisted on a "name" HC this summer, which meant Torts, Maurice or . . .

As ever your "facts" require a hell of a lot of omission. Like Clarke's own admissions about his influence.

And like I said, you can't have it both ways and pretend Fletcher is both in par with competent GMs and doing a competent job while claiming Homer is actually running things and ruining them.

Also it's been 4 years, even if Homer just set the course back then, 1) why is it unchanged, and 2) that doesn't excuse Fletcher for doing the worst possible job pursuing it

 

[deadhead]

For some scope of what I mean with regard to Hayes, here are his Evolving Hockey Goals Above Replacement and xGAR totals by year. The last two columns are the Offensive and Defensive components that make up part of GAR. You'll see why I included those two specifically.

Season	xGAR	Total GAR	Offensive GAR	Defensive GAR
14-15 Rangers	8.2	5.5	5.9	0.2
15-16	2.7	2.7	6.1	-3.4
16-17	0.5	2.6	5.8	-3.8
17-18	9.7	1.9	6.6	-4.6
18-19 Rangers/Jets	10	13.9	8.4	3.5
19-20 Flyers	3.3	-1	0.1	0.4
20-21	-1.4	0	2.5	-2.4
21-22	-3.3	2.1	4	-2.7

When you break down how much of that career year was defensive impact that has never shown up at any other time, I don't think including that year as a measure of a norm is defensible. Signs of an offensive bouncing back, yes. But still not toward that peak.

The last two years he was clearly hindered by skating, so I'd say that his defensive GAR not being that bad is a good sign - he was trying, his legs just couldn't deliver.

He's not as good as his peak, he's a lot better than we've seen so far.

 

[Beef Invictus]

What’s “made up” is people here acting like they know for a fact. The only first-hand witness to talk is Briere, & he denies it.

Briere is as untrustworthy a source as Fletcher. He's in management, of course he is going to bend over backwards to claim management didn't mess up.

 

[deadhead]

As ever your "facts" require a hell of a lot of omission. Like Clarke's own admissions about his influence.

And like I said, you can't have it both ways and pretend Fletcher is both in par with competent GMs and doing a competent job while claiming Homer is actually running things and ruining them.

Also it's been 4 years, even if Homer just set the course back then, 1) why is it unchanged, and 2) that doesn't excuse Fletcher for doing the worst possible job pursuing it

Why do you insist on putting words in people's mouths?
Are you that insecure that you have to make shit up just to get your "gotcha" moment?
If so, I feel sorry for you.

I've said Fletcher is below average, just like Hextall, both have failed at adding value, both are above average drafters overall, but they don't find bargains in FA or on the margin.

I just don't buy the story that the Flyers were fine until Fletcher buried them - they've been pretty much the same for a decade ever since Holmgren refused to rebuild after the Carter/Richards trade. Fletcher patched things the way Hextall did - because the FO had no patience for a real rebuild. So you have JVR and Weise, and Hayes and Deslauriers. You have AMac and Risto.

The primary difference is Hextall had Couts and Voracek and Simmonds in their peak seasons. That covered a multitude of sins until they began to decline. AV and the trades of summer of 2019 were about trying to win before the veterans slipped and the window closed.

What role does Holmgren currently play? Who knows who Scott talks to on a regular basis? But Scott was still making noises about a quick turnaround this spring - but hasn't said anything this summer. So inquiring minds want to know what changed?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Holmgren was the VP who advised Scott, hired Fletcher and set the "mandate for action" in 2018.

Whether he's still as involved 4 years later, he set the strategy that Fletcher executed, and convinced Scott that the team was good enough to compete now.

And them are facts.

And if Charlie is correct, the FO insisted on a "name" HC this summer, which meant Torts, Maurice or . . .

you mean messed up and failed at.

 

[Flyerfan18]

Of course. He was supposed to bow down and kiss the ring. I get it. How dare he tell him no extension. What dumb ass.

It cant possibly be he wanted the team to go in another direction without Clode can it?

What deal was offered? You keep saying this yet not providing any details.

He can’t provide details when the sources are a bunch of bozos who claim to be in the know.

 

[Flyerfan18]

Are you seriously unaware of how many people in Flyers management are directly tied to Clarke? It's almost everyone, and it's why nobody gets fired for years of failure.

Have you looked at any organization hockey or otherwise other than the Flyers and how they are run. I’m guessing no

 

[Beef Invictus]

Why do you insist on putting words in people's mouths?
Are you that insecure that you have to make shit up just to get your "gotcha" moment?
If so, I feel sorry for you.

I've said Fletcher is below average, just like Hextall, both have failed at adding value, both are above average drafters overall, but they don't find bargains in FA or on the margin.

I just don't buy the story that the Flyers were fine until Fletcher buried them - they've been pretty much the same for a decade ever since Holmgren refused to rebuild after the Carter/Richards trade. Fletcher patched things the way Hextall did - because the FO had no patience for a real rebuild. So you have JVR and Weise, and Hayes and Deslauriers. You have AMac and Risto.

The primary difference is Hextall had Couts and Voracek and Simmonds in their peak seasons. That covered a multitude of sins until they began to decline. AV and the trades of summer of 2019 were about trying to win before the veterans slipped and the window closed.

What role does Holmgren currently play? Who knows who Scott talks to on a regular basis? But Scott was still making noises about a quick turnaround this spring - but hasn't said anything this summer. So inquiring minds want to know what changed?

Fletcher is a below average drafter at best.

The Flyers were better off before Fletcher buried them.

Indications are that Holmgren is checked out. You know who has been openly checked in? Clarke.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Have you looked at any organization hockey or otherwise other than the Flyers and how they are run. I’m guessing no

I have. The Flyers are worse and have less accountability than damned near every team in the league, including Montreal. Which is a feat.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Fletcher is a below average drafter at best.

The Flyers were better off before Fletcher buried them.

Indications are that Holmgren is checked out. You know who has been openly checked in? Clarke.

Meltzer says Clarke is not and has not been involved in any way in a very long time. Offers opinions when asked. I suppose he could be lying though , being a corporate shill right?

Barber and Lombardi are the only 2 involved according to him.

 

[Tripod]

Here is reality.

The Flyers are not rebuilding, tearing things down, etc... You don't hire Torts, trade for and sign ADA, trade for and sign Risto, sign Deslauriers for 4 years.

So in his attempt to be better, those are the moves he decided to make. Top Flyers PPG Giroux was sitting on a platter to come back, Fletch said no. Top 3 scorer Gaudreau wanted to come here, Fletch said no.

It's hard to find offensive top line players. Instead, he chose to spend the assets to acquire and cap space on Risto, ADA and Deslauriers.

But don't worry, Torts is gonna fix everything. All we need is a 40 point improvement to become a playoff team.