Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LXXXVI: 86 Proof

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deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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If you look at Toronto who follows that model they change out the middle & bottom of their roster a lot every other year or so. But they’re also pretty invested into analytics that helps identify potential players to fill those roles whether they be from the NHL or overseas.

I think for a lot other teams they don’t have the willingness to do that because it’s more work & it’s harder to do when you more so just going by the eye. So they like signing these mid & low tier guys to longer/bigger term deals because in their mind it puts that one spot in the lineup in pen & not pencil for a while.

Mind you a lot of these former executives & coaches were scrub players themselves too so there also might be bias in taking care of their own so to speak.
Maybe Toronto isn't that good at it, given that despire their elite offensive players, they haven't got out of the 1st round in six tries.
Probably need some bottom six types with "playoff intangibles." :hit:
 
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Magua

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Maybe Toronto isn't that good at it, given that despire their elite offensive players, they haven't got out of the 1st round in six tries.
Probably need some bottom six types with "playoff intangibles." :hit:

This is such a mound of horseshit that I'm surprised anyone has the strength to shovel it. :laugh:

Bunting is on a 950k, 2 year contract -- the guy who was nominated for the Calder at age 26. Mikheyev was a Leaf for 3 years for 925k and 1.65 mil. He just signed for $4.75 mil for 4 years to the Canucks (if that's not getting value....). They did the same thing, to a larger extent, with Hyman. Spezza was one of the best 4th liners in the league, and they had him on league minimum salary for 3 years. They bought low on a very talented Ondrej Kase for $1.25 mil (the Hurricanes just doubled down on that). Engvall was a 7th rounder, and he's been a terrific depth player for them.

Toronto is very good at unearthing these guys or taking upside shots. They don't get wedded to them; they get their value (or not) and move along. It's one of the strengths of their organization. Oh, hey, speaking of which, they just signed NAK to $1 mil, which I'm sure you'll pooh-pooh. I definitely trust the Flyers more than the Leafs and Avs when it comes to acquiring depth! Jarnkrok also just signed for 300k more than Deslauriers.

They did the "intangibles" thing in 2020-21 trading a 1st for Foligno, trading for Simmonds, signing Thornton, signing Bogosian, and these shitty Hockey Guy pieces didn't do a thing. They probably outplayed the Lightning; the 1st round argument is so hollow. They're a contender, end of discussion.
 

The Rage Kage

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Apr 21, 2014
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This is such a mound of horseshit that I'm surprised anyone has the strength to shovel it. :laugh:

Bunting is on a 950k, 2 year contract -- the guy who was nominated for the Calder at age 26. Mikheyev was a Leaf for 3 years for 925k and 1.65 mil. He just signed for $4.75 mil for 4 years to the Canucks (if that's not getting value....). They did the same thing, to a larger extent, with Hyman. Spezza was one of the best 4th liners in the league, and they had him on league minimum salary for 3 years. They bought low on a very talented Ondrej Kase for $1.25 mil (the Hurricanes just doubled down on that). Engvall was a 7th rounder, and he's been a terrific depth player for them.

Toronto is very good at unearthing these guys or taking upside shots. They don't get wedded to them; they get their value (or not) and move along. It's one of the strengths of their organization. Oh, hey, speaking of which, they just signed NAK to $1 mil, which I'm sure you'll pooh-pooh. I definitely trust the Flyers more than the Leafs and Avs when it comes to acquiring depth! Jarnkrok also just signed for 300k more than Deslauriers.

They did the "intangibles" thing in 2020-21 trading a 1st for Foligno, trading for Simmonds, signing Thornton, signing Bogosian, and these shitty Hockey Guy pieces didn't do a thing. They probably outplayed the Lightning; the 1st round argument is so hollow. They're a contender, end of discussion.
Its always the same thing with these perennial "choking" teams. First it was Washington, overrated, not built to win a cup, cant get past the second round, blah blah blah. Then they win the cup. Then it was Tampa, too skilled, too small, not built to win a cup. Then they win. And what do you know, the same people said the same things about Colorado. Winning the stanley cup is f***ing hard to do, even the best team ever wouldn't be guarenteed to win it. All it takes is one run to change the narrative and then they will go after the next team that appears to be underperforming in the playoffs.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Its always the same thing with these perennial "choking" teams. First it was Washington, overrated, not built to win a cup, cant get past the second round, blah blah blah. Then they win the cup. Then it was Tampa, too skilled, too small, not built to win a cup. Then they win. And what do you know, the same people said the same things about Colorado. Winning the stanley cup is f***ing hard to do, even the best team ever wouldn't be guarenteed to win it. All it takes is one run to change the narrative and then they will go after the next team that appears to be underperforming in the playoffs.
Took the Lightning to game 7, but it was the first round instead of the ECF, so they must suck.

Same thing with the cup runner up the year before.

About as useless as analytics. They are a tool. Most on this site overvalue analytics. They are simply another tool in the toolbox and you have to look at the big picture. Eye test, intangibles, fit, analytics all are important.
This is the type of person who doesn't realize that most analytics are literally counts of events that happen on the ice.

He's saying things like passes, shots, etc are as useless as fighting or being a nice guy off the ice.
 

Beef Invictus

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About as useless as analytics. They are a tool. Most on this site overvalue analytics. They are simply another tool in the toolbox and you have to look at the big picture. Eye test, intangibles, fit, analytics all are important.

Intangibles are the least important, and your massive miss on thinking Thompson is better than Frost defensively does wonders to demonstrate how terrible the eye test on its own is.

Analytics are great if used correctly.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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Its always the same thing with these perennial "choking" teams. First it was Washington, overrated, not built to win a cup, cant get past the second round, blah blah blah. Then they win the cup. Then it was Tampa, too skilled, too small, not built to win a cup. Then they win. And what do you know, the same people said the same things about Colorado. Winning the stanley cup is f***ing hard to do, even the best team ever wouldn't be guarenteed to win it. All it takes is one run to change the narrative and then they will go after the next team that appears to be underperforming in the playoffs.
There is a slight difference between teams that get to the CF or the SC Finals and fall short, and teams that can't get out of the first round. There is something weird going on in Toronto.

Washington lost 3 times in the 2nd rd before Trotz finally got over the hump (and three times before Trotz took over).

TB lost CF finals twice, SC finals once, then after being shocked in the 1st rd went out and got Goodrow, Coleman, Maroon, Shattenkirk, Bogosian. McDonagh at the TDL the previous season.

Avs lost in the 2nd rd three straight seasons.
 

blackjackmulligan

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Jun 17, 2022
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You obviously haven't had to deal with many doctors or health issues.
Never seen an athlete in any sport 9 months after he has been out of the lineup with a core injury not know what is wrong. It is laughable that they cant figure it out. He has access to the best doctors in the world.

Also never seen a guy have for lack of a better word his entire core blown up.
 

flyersnorth

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Oct 7, 2019
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Fun article on the Athletic this morning. Worst contracts in the NHL Using GSVA.

Tyler Seguin leading the pack, followed closely by Jones.

Skinner is up there. And a bunch of defenseman. Karlsson, Vlasic, Werenski, Nurse, Parayko, Chiarot.

Suzuki also there.
 

Flyerfan18

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Dec 2, 2017
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Never seen an athlete in any sport 9 months after he has been out of the lineup with a core injury not know what is wrong. It is laughable that they cant figure it out. He has access to the best doctors in the world.

Also never seen a guy have for lack of a better word his entire core blown up.
Took a long time for Crosby to figure out he didn’t have a concussion. Don’t recall how long it took to figure things out because that must have been 10 years ago. It happens sometimes where the best doctors can’t figure it out.
 

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
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For the love of. Analytics doesn't mean anything specific for the people using it both seriously and well. It doesn't mean math or possession metrics or any other specificity that pops into your mind. It's just a catch-all for data collection and optimization. Hits are analytics. Blocked Shots are analytics. Age is analytics.

Despite what clickbait headlines say, analytics don't suggest anything. You're reading an interpretation of data. Analytics is the eye test with different skills and measurable results. As the aphorism goes, "All models are wrong. Some are just useful."

To me, the most interesting bits in the public hockey space these days are where the major models disagree significantly. Even Bjorkstrand caused more disagreement than I thought there would be. That happening on a player everyone agrees is at least very good is where you really start to learn what is and isn't being related to you.
 

BernieParent

In misery of redwings of suckage for a long time
Mar 13, 2009
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Doctors are doctors. It's not an exact science, it's more an art form.
I seriously doubt that we are witnessing a real-life episode of House with Ellis, dead. Scanning technology is really, really good at showing lack of bone and muscle integrity. My point was that athletes undergo near-immediate testing at the slightest sign of injury and if there is a problem serious enough to prevent them from earning their hefty paycheque, they will get the full battery of tests faster than you can say "Allison to the IR." The indication that Ellis has also consulted outside of the Flyers' team of Nick Rivieras adds credence to something chronic, multifaceted, and pervasive.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
50,049
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For the love of. Analytics doesn't mean anything specific for the people using it both seriously and well. It doesn't mean math or possession metrics or any other specificity that pops into your mind. It's just a catch-all for data collection and optimization. Hits are analytics. Blocked Shots are analytics. Age is analytics.

Despite what clickbait headlines say, analytics don't suggest anything. You're reading an interpretation of data. Analytics is the eye test with different skills and measurable results. As the aphorism goes, "All models are wrong. Some are just useful."

To me, the most interesting bits in the public hockey space these days are where the major models disagree significantly. Even Bjorkstrand caused more disagreement than I thought there would be. That happening on a player everyone agrees is at least very good is where you really start to learn what is and isn't being related to you.
It's a quote from George Cox, the eminent time series statistician.

2.3 Parsimony
Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.
2.4 Worrying Selectively
Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad.


A big problem with most hockey metrics is they are based on linear regressions, which are crude approximations of the unknown underlying functional form (the true model). There is also "left out variable error" (which is ubiquitous, but it means that all significance tests should be taken with a bag of salt), measurement error and I doubt most of the people creating metrics account for things like multi-collinearity.

Which does not mean one should dismiss these metrics out of hand, but one should retain a good deal of skepticism.
Nor should you dismiss "hockey men" out of hand, since "the wisdom of crowds" suggests there's potential merit to a general consensus of experienced observers.

I seriously doubt that we are witnessing a real-life episode of House with Ellis, dead. Scanning technology is really, really good at showing lack of bone and muscle integrity. My point was that athletes undergo near-immediate testing at the slightest sign of injury and if there is a problem serious enough to prevent them from earning their hefty paycheque, they will get the full battery of tests faster than you can say "Allison to the IR." The indication that Ellis has also consulted outside of the Flyers' team of Nick Rivieras adds credence to something chronic, multifaceted, and pervasive.
However, that suggests that this isn't a chronic condition that Nashville knew about, since they would have conducted these kinds of tests once Ellis reported symptoms - or they concealed that knowledge (which the league would go ballistic if discovered). And if it was a long-term chronic condition, it's unlikely he'd have zero symptoms until after he was traded.
 

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
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Nor should you dismiss "hockey men" out of hand, since "the wisdom of crowds" suggests there's potential merit to a general consensus of experienced observers.

Perhaps this is just my personal bubble, but I think most reasonable people who are interested in qualitative analysis of sports agree with this wholeheartedly. Hockey men get most things right. They get some medium to minor things wrong. As more and more of them are stripped out, the edges shrink and the minor can now be more major in scope.

Or to be put more plainly, if you ever want to feel like an absolute moron, talk to a grizzled Defensive Coordinator about anything related to football. If you want to feel like a total failure, ask him/her about Cover 7 variations. You'll be able to follow at most 5% of it.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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21,907
Perhaps this is just my personal bubble, but I think most reasonable people who are interested in qualitative analysis of sports agree with this wholeheartedly. Hockey men get most things right. They get some medium to minor things wrong. As more and more of them are stripped out, the edges shrink and the minor can now be more major in scope.

Or to be put more plainly, if you ever want to feel like an absolute moron, talk to a grizzled Defensive Coordinator about anything related to football. If you want to feel like a total failure, ask him/her about Cover 7 variations. You'll be able to follow at most 5% of it.
The idea that people whose livelihoods depend upon making good judgements will blindly stick to a credo just because they reflexively reject change stretches credibility - since sports are a strong example of the "Red Queen" effect (running faster and faster just to stay in place) - a Dino who is consistently wrong would soon be extinct.

This does not mean the conventional wisdom is always right, rather, it is unlikely to be consistently wrong.
 
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