Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LXXXVI: 86 Proof

[renberg]

I seriously doubt that we are witnessing a real-life episode of House with Ellis, dead. Scanning technology is really, really good at showing lack of bone and muscle integrity. My point was that athletes undergo near-immediate testing at the slightest sign of injury and if there is a problem serious enough to prevent them from earning their hefty paycheque, they will get the full battery of tests faster than you can say "Allison to the IR." The indication that Ellis has also consulted outside of the Flyers' team of Nick Rivieras adds credence to something chronic, multifaceted, and pervasive.

I've maintained for a while that Ellis was damaged goods. Also that the Predators knew it. The trade makes no sense unless that is the case. The rumors at the 20-21 TDL were that the Flyers wanted Ekholm not Ellis. Didn't happen. Then all of a sudden in the off season, Ellis is the guy.
Nashville suckered Fletcher plain and simple. The only way around that is if the Flyers knew that Patrick's head was in as bad of shape as Ellis' hip so both sides were agreeing to trading trash.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The idea that people whose livelihoods depend upon making good judgements will blindly stick to a credo just because they reflexively reject change stretches credibility - since sports are a strong example of the "Red Queen" effect (running faster and faster just to stay in place) - a Dino who is consistently wrong would soon be extinct.

This does not mean the conventional wisdom is always right, rather, it is unlikely to be consistently wrong.

To me, the simplest solution is that you have a small amount of people digging in on separate issues, which gets magnified as it gets repeated. Then we react to the noise because we never see the signal.

Of course it's tougher to suss out the individual impact of one individual in a hockey organization, especially at lower levels. In this case, the pressure to evolve comes from above in the hierarchy, not from the other orgs. That means your subpar survival rates are going to skyrocket.

 

[deadhead]

I've maintained for a while that Ellis was damaged goods. Also that the Predators knew it. The trade makes no sense unless that is the case. The rumors at the 20-21 TDL were that the Flyers wanted Ekholm not Ellis. Didn't happen. Then all of a sudden in the off season, Ellis is the guy.
Nashville suckered Fletcher plain and simple. The only way around that is if the Flyers knew that Patrick's head was in as bad of shape as Ellis' hip so both sides were agreeing to trading trash.

Still doesn't make sense b/c of the cap hit.
And concealing a serious medical condition could hurt Nashville big time if discovered.

What's more likely is this was a freak occurrence, and the physical therapy actually worsened the condition because they hadn't identified the underlying cause.

Ellis missed time the previous two seasons due to a bad concussion and a broken knuckle, but there are no reports of issues with knees, hips or groin when he was playing. If he had reported discomfort, they would have almost certainly have tried to identify the source, given his contract.

 

[renberg]

And concealing a serious medical condition could hurt Nashville big time if discovered.

So I've been told but it's done in all sports all of the time. Both players and teams hide and downplay their injuries as best they can.

 

[deadhead]

So I've been told but it's done in all sports all of the time. Both players and teams hide and downplay their injuries as best they can.

There's a big difference between downplaying injuries during the season to make it more difficult for opponents to game plan, and concealing a serious injury when making a trade.

Though with the rise of legalized sports betting, leagues are cracking down on misreporting of injuries because it presents the potential for manipulation of betting markets.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The idea that people whose livelihoods depend upon making good judgements will blindly stick to a credo just because they reflexively reject change stretches credibility - since sports are a strong example of the "Red Queen" effect (running faster and faster just to stay in place) - a Dino who is consistently wrong would soon be extinct.

This does not mean the conventional wisdom is always right, rather, it is unlikely to be consistently wrong.

This is a lot less true in the NHL where obvious failures still get recycled and kept around long past their expiration.

 

[BernieParent]

I've maintained for a while that Ellis was damaged goods. Also that the Predators knew it. The trade makes no sense unless that is the case. The rumors at the 20-21 TDL were that the Flyers wanted Ekholm not Ellis. Didn't happen. Then all of a sudden in the off season, Ellis is the guy.
Nashville suckered Fletcher plain and simple. The only way around that is if the Flyers knew that Patrick's head was in as bad of shape as Ellis' hip so both sides were agreeing to trading trash.

However, that suggests that this isn't a chronic condition that Nashville knew about, since they would have conducted these kinds of tests once Ellis reported symptoms - or they concealed that knowledge (which the league would go ballistic if discovered). And if it was a long-term chronic condition, it's unlikely he'd have zero symptoms until after he was traded.

Thank you both for your replies. There is a whole spectrum of possibilities between Nashville 100% knowing how injured Ellis was and trading him without revealing and 100% of his current health issues cropping up after the trade. I am confident we all fit in somewhere along this scale. My always-inexpert speculation on this is some combination of the following:

- Ellis had a nagging injury with a variable degree of discomfort that he was able to play through and, like a true Hockey Guy, downplayed to some degree​

- The Predators knew Ellis had an injury but either passively or actively let him play through it, allowing him as a veteran to dictate what he was capable of​

- The injury was not a principal factor in trade discussions, but an injury history -- even though it was different injuries not anatomically connected -- makes it easier for a GM to deal a player >30 given the right circumstances​

- The Predators discussed Ellis' health with Fletcher but may have downplayed the extent to comply with the letter of NHL rules​

- Fletcher knew that Ellis had an injury but decided himself or was advised that the injury was not so serious as to make the risk greater than the reward of trading for him, especially as neither Patrick nor Myers were key players​

- Something happened during Ellis' gif-length stint on the Flyers' roster to make the existing condition much worse​

- Ellis' displeasure to be in Philadelphia reduced his level of injury tolerance​

​

Boulder-sized grains of salt all around to take with the above.

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Thank you both for your replies. There is a whole spectrum of possibilities between Nashville 100% knowing how injured Ellis was and trading him without revealing and 100% of his current health issues cropping up after the trade. I am confident we all fit in somewhere along this scale. My always-inexpert speculation on this is some combination of the following:

- Ellis had a nagging injury with a variable degree of discomfort that he was able to play through and, like a true Hockey Guy, downplayed to some degree​

- The Predators knew Ellis had an injury but either passively or actively let him play through it, allowing him as a veteran to dictate what he was capable of​

- The injury was not a principal factor in trade discussions, but an injury history -- even though it was different injuries not anatomically connected -- makes it easier for a GM to deal a player >30 given the right circumstances​

- The Predators discussed Ellis' health with Fletcher but may have downplayed the extent to comply with the letter of NHL rules​

- Fletcher knew that Ellis had an injury but decided himself or was advised that the injury was not so serious as to make the risk greater than the reward of trading for him, especially as neither Patrick nor Myers were key players​

- Something happened during Ellis' gif-length stint on the Flyers' roster to make the existing condition much worse​

- Ellis' displeasure to be in Philadelphia reduced his level of injury tolerance​

​

Boulder-sized grains of salt all around to take with the above.

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

your facts all check out..

 

[deadhead]

Thank you both for your replies. There is a whole spectrum of possibilities between Nashville 100% knowing how injured Ellis was and trading him without revealing and 100% of his current health issues cropping up after the trade. I am confident we all fit in somewhere along this scale. My always-inexpert speculation on this is some combination of the following:

- Ellis had a nagging injury with a variable degree of discomfort that he was able to play through and, like a true Hockey Guy, downplayed to some degree​

- The Predators knew Ellis had an injury but either passively or actively let him play through it, allowing him as a veteran to dictate what he was capable of​

- The injury was not a principal factor in trade discussions, but an injury history -- even though it was different injuries not anatomically connected -- makes it easier for a GM to deal a player >30 given the right circumstances​

- The Predators discussed Ellis' health with Fletcher but may have downplayed the extent to comply with the letter of NHL rules​

- Fletcher knew that Ellis had an injury but decided himself or was advised that the injury was not so serious as to make the risk greater than the reward of trading for him, especially as neither Patrick nor Myers were key players​

- Something happened during Ellis' gif-length stint on the Flyers' roster to make the existing condition much worse​

- Ellis' displeasure to be in Philadelphia reduced his level of injury tolerance​

​

Boulder-sized grains of salt all around to take with the above.

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

The only problem is if Ellis had a nagging injury, it's doubtful the trainers wouldn't have noticed it and the team doctors check it out.
Teams will let players play through injuries if they have a high pain threshold, but they want to know what the injury is to ensure the player can't make it worse by playing - especially a player on a long-term contract and whom they want healthy for the playoffs.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[DancingPanther]

Thank you both for your replies. There is a whole spectrum of possibilities between Nashville 100% knowing how injured Ellis was and trading him without revealing and 100% of his current health issues cropping up after the trade. I am confident we all fit in somewhere along this scale. My always-inexpert speculation on this is some combination of the following:

- Ellis had a nagging injury with a variable degree of discomfort that he was able to play through and, like a true Hockey Guy, downplayed to some degree​

- The Predators knew Ellis had an injury but either passively or actively let him play through it, allowing him as a veteran to dictate what he was capable of​

- The injury was not a principal factor in trade discussions, but an injury history -- even though it was different injuries not anatomically connected -- makes it easier for a GM to deal a player >30 given the right circumstances​

- The Predators discussed Ellis' health with Fletcher but may have downplayed the extent to comply with the letter of NHL rules​

- Fletcher knew that Ellis had an injury but decided himself or was advised that the injury was not so serious as to make the risk greater than the reward of trading for him, especially as neither Patrick nor Myers were key players​

- Something happened during Ellis' gif-length stint on the Flyers' roster to make the existing condition much worse​

- Ellis' displeasure to be in Philadelphia reduced his level of injury tolerance​

​

Boulder-sized grains of salt all around to take with the above.

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

Thank you both for your replies. There is a whole spectrum of possibilities between Nashville 100% knowing how injured Ellis was and trading him without revealing and 100% of his current health issues cropping up after the trade. I am confident we all fit in somewhere along this scale. My always-inexpert speculation on this is some combination of the following:

- Ellis had a nagging injury with a variable degree of discomfort that he was able to play through and, like a true Hockey Guy, downplayed to some degree​

- The Predators knew Ellis had an injury but either passively or actively let him play through it, allowing him as a veteran to dictate what he was capable of​

- The injury was not a principal factor in trade discussions, but an injury history -- even though it was different injuries not anatomically connected -- makes it easier for a GM to deal a player >30 given the right circumstances​

- The Predators discussed Ellis' health with Fletcher but may have downplayed the extent to comply with the letter of NHL rules​

- Fletcher knew that Ellis had an injury but decided himself or was advised that the injury was not so serious as to make the risk greater than the reward of trading for him, especially as neither Patrick nor Myers were key players​

- Something happened during Ellis' gif-length stint on the Flyers' roster to make the existing condition much worse​

- Ellis' displeasure to be in Philadelphia reduced his level of injury tolerance​

​

Boulder-sized grains of salt all around to take with the above.

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

Yes sir. I suspect early stage osteoarthritis of the hip, but any degenerative condition will satisfy my broad and unmoving differential from day 1 of this becoming "this isn't your everyday injury"

 

[deadhead]

He was traded to the Devils for a 3rd rd pick after being benched in Washington.
Or why patience is required with prospects

On the other hand, the Devils extended him on the basis of one good season.
Which is a bit risky.

 

[BernieParent]

The only problem is if Ellis had a nagging injury, it's doubtful the trainers wouldn't have noticed it and the team doctors check it out.
Teams will let players play through injuries if they have a high pain threshold, but they want to know what the injury is to ensure the player can't make it worse by playing - especially a player on a long-term contract and whom they want healthy for the playoffs.

We would hope this is the case, dead, and your response aligns with my point that players get checked out right away if their injury prevents or hampers their play. By the same token, the little we know doesn't fit well at all with an acute injury. Unfortunately, all we have is a mystery condition nearly a year later in the biggest 2021-22 offseason acquisition player who skated for all of 4 games with the Flyers.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Always liked this guy when I saw him play in Washington

 

[Chinatown88]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

PS: I miss bullet point formatting in posts.

Putting it in a pic so you can see the code:

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Apparently the Isles are rumored to be doing their version with the fish sticks logo.

 

[mja]

The idea that people whose livelihoods depend upon making good judgements will blindly stick to a credo just because they reflexively reject change stretches credibility - since sports are a strong example of the "Red Queen" effect (running faster and faster just to stay in place) - a Dino who is consistently wrong would soon be extinct.

This does not mean the conventional wisdom is always right, rather, it is unlikely to be consistently wrong.

The dinos keep looking out for one another, and they get undue deference from those who are supposed to hold them accountable. It is a dying breed being kept alive by artificial means.

I don't disagree with the point about the value of their experience and knowledge. Bob Clarke, Paul Holmgren, AV, Torts, Jeff Hakstok, etc. have all forgotten more hockey than I'll ever know. Rasmus Ristolainen is not a very smart hockey player, but he's a genius compared to me. This is specifically where my rage comes from though. I'm a random idiot on the internet. I've said that many times before. I own it completely. So to me, it's absolutely galling that the people who are supposed to get things right a reasonable percentage of the time keep getting them so wrong, but that random idiots like me on the internet can see it all happening without any difficulty whatsoever.

The problem is that hockey guys are blinded by their experience and refuse to consider new ideas, especially when those ideas seem to contradict firmly held core beliefs. So they stay stuck in the past, misdiagnose the issue, double and triple down on failed processes, make excuses, and search out scapegoats. So we end up bleeding assets for Ristolainen and then extending him on an insta-bad contract, because you need a big rugged defenseman to compete in the playoffs, never mind that there's an excellent reason he has never played a playoff game in his career, namely because any team that depends on Ristolainen to eat big minutes is not making the playoffs in the first place, because he's not any damned good.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Ever read something that explains thoughts you've had more eloquently than you're capable of doing?

Thread:


TLDR;

 

[Magua]

Ever read something that explains thoughts you've had more eloquently than you're capable of doing?

Thread:


TLDR;

I like how Sutter calls it checking and not defending. Defending is passive. Checking is assertive. It implies defending is an offensive zone feature too. The point of checking is to get the puck as quickly and efficiently as possible, in any zone.

That’s not to minimize defensive skills as real necessary skills. It’s more a mentality. Just look how much, uh, checking the Flyers added the last 2 seasons. They clearly get it.

 

[Rebels57]

Apparently the Isles are rumored to be doing their version with the fish sticks logo.

The orange NHL logo rules

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The orange NHL logo rules

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[Magua]

When’s the Deslauriers one come out?

 

[deadhead]

Ever read something that explains thoughts you've had more eloquently than you're capable of doing?

Thread:


TLDR;

Yep. Really good defense is often being in position so the offense play never occurs.
Which makes it harder to measure, what stat measures "player with puck circles back to regroup b/c his progress was stymied."