Marner's Next Contract

[BlueForever75]

Clearly displaying why you don't sign bridge deals.

And clearly what the Leafs should do with both Marner and Nylander because they too haven't fully broken out yet and have put up points like Schiefle did prior to his contract extension. This is why I don't think Nylander should get a penny more then what Schiefle gets. He's a definite comparable.

 

[justafan22]

And clearly what the Leafs should do with both Marner and Nylander because they too haven't fully broken out yet and have put up points like Schiefle did prior to his contract extension. This is why I don't think Nylander should get a penny more then what Schiefle gets. He's a definite comparable.

I'd extend nylander due to his "down year for boxcar stats" and then bridge marner. Maxmize the cup window. Who cares if you have to pay Marner 8 million in 3 years.

 

[Sypher04]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-tavares-focused-on-negotiations-with-islanders~1417629

Towards the end of the segment Darren Dreger says Marner and Leafs could be a battle and that Marner's representatives have the stats to back them up in asking for Jack Eichel money.

There was a whole main board discussion on this recently.

Link: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/marner-negotiations-could-be-a-battle.2503207/​

That's not a report. That is baseless speculation. I know where it originated

And even if the stats line up Eichel being the #1C on his team vs Marner playing sheltered wing minutes on the third line of a much better team (until he got moved with Kadri half way through the year) still makes the comparable ridiculous.

 

[Mess]

There has to be some concern of overpaying the 3 Amigos because of the rookie greenhorn GM Dubas and his inexperience level at this point.

I give the upper advantage to the player agents at this point until we see Dubas in action, so I'm a little nervous that the money $$ will be higher than hoped for with a more experienced GM at the helm.

Hopefully for Leaf Nation sake Dubas wins out here and gets the key core players under cap value contracts and not cap busting created problems.

 

[Sypher04]

There has to be some concern of overpaying the 3 Amigos because of the rookie greenhorn GM Dubas and his inexperience level at this point.

I give the upper advantage to the player agents at this point until we see Dubas in action, so I'm a little nervous that the money $$ will be higher than hoped for with a more experienced GM at the helm.

Hopefully for Leaf Nation sake Dubas wins out here and gets the key core players under cap value contracts and not cap busting created problems.

I don't really feel this way. Who's to say Dubas hasn't negotiated several player contracts even while Lou was here. It's not a problem imo until it is one.

 

[Fogelhund]

There has to be some concern of overpaying the 3 Amigos because of the rookie greenhorn GM Dubas and his inexperience level at this point.

I give the upper advantage to the player agents at this point until we see Dubas in action, so I'm a little nervous that the money $$ will be higher than hoped for with a more experienced GM at the helm.

Hopefully for Leaf Nation sake Dubas wins out here and gets the key core players under cap value contracts and not cap busting created problems.

Being a math guy, I'm fairly confident Dubas will know the value of the players, and make a compelling presentation and deals.

 

[Mess]

And even if the stats line up Eichel being the #1C on his team vs Marner played sheltering wing minutes on the third line of a much better team (until he got moved with Kadri half way through the year) still makes the comparable ridiculous.

I think that point that a lot of Leaf fans forget is that Marner spent 1/2 the season mired and bogged down on the 3rd and 4th lines last year struggling mightily in the first half the season and on pace for 6 goals on the season by Christmas.. No question he was red hot in the 2nd half after being promoted to the Kadri line to help it out as it was struggling and that carried forward into the playoffs.

So which is the real Mitch Marner the 1str half or the 2nd half or perhaps somewhere in the middle?

This fact can't be lost on Dubas and Leafs management that young player inconsistency has to be playing a part in contract negotiations.

How can a player ask for the moon when his track record and performance is verifiable statistically and providing the basis for the ask?

 

[Sypher04]

I think that point that a lot of Leaf fans forget is that Marner spent 1/2 the season mired and bogged down on the 3rd and 4th lines last year struggling mightily in the first half the season and on pace for 6 goals on the season by Christmas.. No question he was red hot in the 2nd half after being promoted to the Kadri line to help it out as it was struggling and that carried forward into the playoffs.

So which is the real Mitch Marner the 1str half or the 2nd half or perhaps somewhere in the middle?

This fact can't be lost on Dubas and Leafs management that young player inconsistency has to be playing a part in contract negotiations.

How can a player ask for the moon when his track record and performance is verifiable statistically and providing the basis for the ask?

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I love Mitch Marner, but it's a fair question.

Is he the ~1.15 point per game guy from the time he moved up with Kadri, or is he more of a 0.9-1.0 guy? Because that difference could be pretty significant. I tend to believe he's capable of being a 90+ point guy, but how you pay him is interesting for sure.

 

[Mess]

I don't really feel this way. Who's to say Dubas hasn't negotiated several player contracts even while Lou was here. It's not a problem imo until it is one.

Lou Lam is the ultimate control freak so I can't see Dubas having a very big role if any as assistant GM under him while Lou was in full control.

We will know when we see the actual numbers and the terms that the kids get signed to and can analyze thereafter retrospectively, but at that point it could be too late to correct a mistake, as the best time is now to avoid making any before their signed.

However lack of experience going up against elite experienced player agents is something I'm concerned about at this point.

 

[Mess]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I love Mitch Marner, but it's a fair question.

Is he the ~1.15 point per game guy from the time he moved up with Kadri, or is he more of a 0.9-1.0 guy? Because that different is pretty significant. I tend to believe he's capable of being a 90+ point guy, but how you pay him is interesting for sure.

Marner's agent will emphasize the 2nd half of the season and project his asking price based on what you done lately, while Dubas should counter that argument with the 1st half results, to put a drag on that asking price based on actual performance over the course of the full season. Many players get hot and many players struggle at times so the average is often the more reasonable landing point.

Also ES 5v5 verses specialty team points should also be a factor in the process as Marner 27 PPP of his 69 (~40%) leaving 42 points over 82 games at ES (=~.5 PPG). Marner feast on the point on the PP, but at ES 5v5 only a proven .5 PPG player.. Dubas as a advanced stats guru also keenly aware of this.

This is a very different situation for Matthews who is an even strength beast and used the PP and specialty time (only 13 points total) very little to boost his point totals (where man advantage is generally feasting time for star players).

In a direct comparison of teammates here the potential for Matthews to explode statistically is much greater once his PP unit starts clicking and his 5v5 play remains strong.. Marner was already tied for 20th in league in PP points so his PP performance is near max so he will need to become a much better ES contributor to ask for elite money.

 

[DanM]

What are you jibbiring about. You dont think that is possible giving them what they are worth and being in contention for a long time? Do you really think that 1 or 2M in total that you can save is going to make the window shorter?

In a cap world yes, lets say we save 2m per player, that's 6 million, that's flexibility to add on the backend.

Plus some player contracts will end, some pieces will move (not part of the core) and when you add in another 6 million, plus a cap increase, our window looks a lot better, and longer to compete.

This is also assuming we don't add dumb contracts to lesser role players as well.

Also, what they are ACTUALLY worth using other player contracts, and what we are thinking they will get is a big difference.

What they should get right now (not saying they won't be better)

Matty 9.5-10.5
Marner 6.7-7m
Nylander 6-6.5m

What people are thinking on here

Matty 11-12.5m
Marner 8.5-9m
Nylander 7-7.5m

These are not what they are worth right now, maybe in a year or two, but other players with better stats have signed for less.

 

[hotpaws]

I don't really feel this way. Who's to say Dubas hasn't negotiated several player contracts even while Lou was here. It's not a problem imo until it is one.

he didn't negotiate any deals once LL came , KD said in an interview he was shunted off to the Marlies as soon as Lou was hired and little to do with the Leafs

this doesn't mean he won't negotiate good deals and he does have two agm's who are well respected on the business side to help him

 

[DanM]

What do you mean by saying they should take reasonable contracts ?

JT at 11m per isn't on sub market deal so why should the kids take less than there comparables , it'd be nice if they did but I won't be holding it against them if they didn't .

Funny how all of sudden we went from easily being able to afford JT and our young core to cap hell if they don't take discounts .

It's not cap hell, and JT was getting 2-3 million more on the open market.

I know they don't have to do squat, it's not their problem, but if you take a haircut (even 2 million like JT did) it will go a LONG way to helping us add an impact piece or 2 going forward. I am not saying we will be in cap hell, but I am hoping they want winning over money, and JT was also sold on the whole core being intact.

The reality is we will be fine as long as we don't hand out stupid contracts to secondary players, but wouldn't you like to see them sign for a little less, and be able to add a top pairing D sooner? If possible of course.

The cap will increase, and more contracts will come off the books the next few years, but it would be great to have a lot more cap flexibility as well.

If Marner and Nylander actually get paid by looking at comparable contracts, we are golden, same with Matty. I just don't want to see them come in 2 million more per year each, why would anybody who is a fan want to see that.

Marner 6.7-7m
Nylander 6-6.5m
Matty 9.5-10.25m

Those are what they should get if you look around the league using other player contracts.

What we don't want to see is:

Marner 8.5m
Nylander 7-7.5m
Matty 11-12.5m

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

Marner is not giving out any hometown discount. He is getting 8.5 million. Nylander is willing to take 6.5 million though for 8 years. Both these kids are locked into being paid like top fifty corporation CEO's. Micheal Nylander is licking his chops.

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

If Nylander turns into a part time participant in the tough going, and Marner gets concussed, and of course, I believe Matthews is a non gym rat health risk, we could soon be hearing the bellows of laughter coming from Ballard and Clancy.


I would trade Nylander and Matthews and run with Tavares, Marner and Kadri. Load up with picks, and great D. But, we won't, and we won't win. Our defence is laughable.

 

[DanM]

Marner is not giving out any hometown discount. He is getting 8.5 million. Nylander is willing to take 6.5 million though for 8 years. Both these kids are locked into being paid like top fifty corporation CEO's. Micheal Nylander is licking his chops.

Has Marner said this?

 

[hotpaws]

It's not cap hell, and JT was getting 2-3 million more on the open market.

I know they don't have to do squat, it's not their problem, but if you take a haircut (even 2 million like JT did) it will go a LONG way to helping us add an impact piece or 2 going forward. I am not saying we will be in cap hell, but I am hoping they want winning over money, and JT was also sold on the whole core being intact.

The reality is we will be fine as long as we don't hand out stupid contracts to secondary players, but wouldn't you like to see them sign for a little less, and be able to add a top pairing D sooner? If possible of course.

The cap will increase, and more contracts will come off the books the next few years, but it would be great to have a lot more cap flexibility as well.

JT isn't worth 13m per so taking a supposed hair cut from an over payment is far different than asking our kids to take 2m less than comparable players .

I would like to see a lot of things , JT taking a Stamkos type discount to come home , our kids to give a bit of a discount , finding a top pairing D but that has nothing to do with me expecting or being upset if MNM didn't take a large discount .

 

[DanM]

JT isn't worth 13m per so taking a supposed hair cut from an over payment is far different than asking our kids to take 2m less than comparable players .

I would like to see a lot of things , JT taking a Stamkos type discount to come home , our kids to give a bit of a discount , finding a top pairing D but that has nothing to do with me expecting or being upset if MNM didn't take a large discount .

Agreed, he is not worth 13 million.

But he still took less, and the kids should see this. I don't want them to be underpaid for sure, and I am not suggesting we low ball them at all. However, the reality is other players with similar or better stats have signed under value in order for the team to add players. There is zero reason why our guys shouldn't at least look at slightly less, even McDavid did this.

In your heart of hearts, and taking into consideration player contracts of similar stats, do you believe these players are worth these numbers right now (not future)

Marner= 8.5m
Matty=12.5
Nylander=7

 

[Mess]

I know they don't have to do squat, it's not their problem, but if you take a haircut (even 2 million like JT did) it will go a LONG way to helping us add an impact piece or 2 going forward. I am not saying we will be in cap hell, but I am hoping they want winning over money, and JT was also sold on the whole core being intact.

Of the 3 Amigo's Marner is the one most likely to give the best discount, due to being a local kid and playing for his hometown team.

Matthews and Nylander do not have those same factors to consider to offer less than market value to stay if they know they can get more.

However the opposite could also play out with Marner that he gets the biggest raise (above current comparables) if he waits and knowing he will feast points wise by playing with the great JT as his centre and it will drive up is asking price thereafter. JT will add potentially +20 points to Marner stats this year and put Mitch in a new tax bracket and asking position.

Matthews and Willie playing together will have to rely on themselves and together to produce their points and JT playing on another line will not impact them directly only indirectly by giving them better match-ups as a result of JT drawing top coverage.

 

[kb]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-tavares-focused-on-negotiations-with-islanders~1417629

Towards the end of the segment Darren Dreger says Marner and Leafs could be a battle and that Marner's representatives have the stats to back them up in asking for Jack Eichel money.

There was a whole main board discussion on this recently.

Link: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/marner-negotiations-could-be-a-battle.2503207/​

The main board? Where intelligence and unbiased opinion go to die....

 

[hotpaws]

Agreed, he is not worth 13 million.

But he still took less, and the kids should see this. I don't want them to be underpaid for sure, and I am not suggesting we low ball them at all. However, the reality is other players with similar or better stats have signed under value in order for the team to add players. There is zero reason why our guys shouldn't at least look at slightly less, even McDavid did this.

i'd love to try to convince the kids to take a discount but i wouldn't be using JT's situation as an argument since if i were them i'd respond by saying

Mathews - yea i won't ask for 14 , i'll just sign for 12
Marner - yea i won't ask for 12 , i'll just sing for 10.5
Nylander - yea i won't ask for 10 , i'll just sign for 8.5

and then at the press conference i'd say i signed for less for the team

 

[DanM]

i'd love to try to convince the kids to take a discount but i wouldn't be using JT's situation as an argument since if i were them i'd respond by saying

Mathews - yea i won't ask for 14 , i'll just sign for 12
Marner - yea i won't ask for 12 , i'll just sing for 10.5
Nylander - yea i won't ask for 10 , i'll just sign for 8.5

and then at the press conference i'd say i signed for less for the team

I hear what you are saying.

If we actually signed those contracts, I would puke in my mouth lol

 

[kb]

There has to be some concern of overpaying the 3 Amigos because of the rookie greenhorn GM Dubas and his inexperience level at this point.

I give the upper advantage to the player agents at this point until we see Dubas in action, so I'm a little nervous that the money $$ will be higher than hoped for with a more experienced GM at the helm.

Hopefully for Leaf Nation sake Dubas wins out here and gets the key core players under cap value contracts and not cap busting created problems.

Yeah, he did terrible on the JT signing.

 

[kb]

I think that point that a lot of Leaf fans forget is that Marner spent 1/2 the season mired and bogged down on the 3rd and 4th lines last year struggling mightily in the first half the season and on pace for 6 goals on the season by Christmas.. No question he was red hot in the 2nd half after being promoted to the Kadri line to help it out as it was struggling and that carried forward into the playoffs.

So which is the real Mitch Marner the 1str half or the 2nd half or perhaps somewhere in the middle?

This fact can't be lost on Dubas and Leafs management that young player inconsistency has to be playing a part in contract negotiations.

How can a player ask for the moon when his track record and performance is verifiable statistically and providing the basis for the ask?

So Marner was replaced by on the 3rd line by Brown. Go do an analysis of his stats pre and post BoVR now. Your answer (and the real issue) will become crystal clear.

 

[kb]

Of the 3 Amigo's Marner is the one most likely to give the best discount, due to being a local kid and playing for his hometown team.

Matthews and Nylander do not have those same factors to consider to offer less than market value to stay if they know they can get more.

However the opposite could also play out with Marner that he gets the biggest raise (above current comparables) if he waits and knowing he will feast points wise by playing with the great JT as his centre and it will drive up is asking price thereafter. JT will add potentially +20 points to Marner stats this year and put Mitch in a new tax bracket and asking position.

Matthews and Willie playing together will have to rely on themselves and together to produce their points and JT playing on another line will not impact them directly only indirectly by giving them better match-ups as a result of JT drawing top coverage.

Nylander needs to be signed before he can step foot on the ice. So he will get what they tell him he can have, or he can sit. He has almost no leverage but to sit out. Which if he chooses to sit out, may hurt his long term career prospects as no one will want to trade for a malcontent who doesn't play particularly well away from Matthews.

Marner will be in the exact same boat next year. In fact, with the looming cap crunch, it is probably a much wiser move for him to sign on the dotted line before Matthews does. Only so many dollars available next season. What leverage does Mitch have next year when the Leafs are cap squeezed?