Marner's Next Contract

[Mess]

In your heart of hearts, and taking into consideration player contracts of similar stats, do you believe these players are worth these numbers right now (not future)

Marner= 8.5m

A $8.5 mil contract based on right now (not future) would tie him with Stamkos for 10th in the NHL highest. Sidney Crosby makes $8.7 mil AAV and is #8.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

How can anyone based on his current stats of (62 and 69 points seasons) project him as a top 10 highest paid player in the game today?

His .84 PPG put him 60th in NHL scoring (NHL.com - Stats) based on points per game pace and his final points of 69 place him just inside the top 40 NHL scorers on 2017-18.

There in lies the problem in that figure is only valid should Marner become a top 12 NHL player to earn what the elite players earn AAV.

 

[kb]

A $8.5 mil contract based on right now (not future) would tie him with Stamkos for 10th in the NHL highest. Sidney Crosby makes $8.7 mil AAV and is #8.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

How can anyone based on his current stats of (62 and 69 points seasons) project him as a top 10 highest paid player in the game today?

His .84 PPG put him 60th in NHL scoring (NHL.com - Stats) based on points per game pace and his final points of 69 place him just inside the top 40 NHL scorers on 2017-18.

There in lies the problem in that figure is only valid should Marner become a top 12 NHL player to earn what the elite players earn AAV.

We agree here. Marner plays a less important position as well. Right now I would say do up an 8 year, $7-7.25 million per contract. He needs to realize that next year is a cap albatross - especially if they are trying to keep Gardiner.

 

[DanM]

A $8.5 mil contract based on right now (not future) would tie him with Stamkos for 10th in the NHL highest. Sidney Crosby makes $8.7 mil AAV and is #8.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

How can anyone based on his current stats of (62 and 69 points seasons) project him as a top 10 highest paid player in the game today?

His .84 PPG put him 60th in NHL scoring (NHL.com - Stats) based on points per game pace and his final points of 69 place him just inside the top 40 NHL scorers on 2017-18.

There in lies the problem in that figure is only valid should Marner become a top 12 NHL player to earn what the elite players earn AAV.

Well said

I don't understand why people are thinking our guys will be able to get blank cheques and Dubas will just say "How Much"

They should all be paid accordingly, and looking at stats and other contracts around the NHL, 8.5 for Marner alone is laughable....... right now

 

[Sypher04]

he didn't negotiate any deals once LL came , KD said in an interview he was shunted off to the Marlies as soon as Lou was hired and little to do with the Leafs

this doesn't mean he won't negotiate good deals and he does have two agm's who are well respected on the business side to help him

I'm not sure who KD is but that was only in like the first year Lou was here from what I heard.

 

[Notsince67]

Well said

I don't understand why people are thinking our guys will be able to get blank cheques and Dubas will just say "How Much"

They should all be paid accordingly, and looking at stats and other contracts around the NHL, 8.5 for Marner alone is laughable....... right now

So you didn't understand the point. You want to sign Marner early, you need a fair assessment of what you think he will produce next year with a stress test of the ceiling. Marner will not sign today based on his current production when the indicators point to a much better year next year.

 

[Mess]

Yeah, he did terrible on the JT signing.

FYI .. Tavares has the 2nd highest AAV at $11 mil in the entire NHL behind only McDavid for this coming season & Tavares picked his hometown more than Dubas got him to sign here for that $$.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Anyone on this board could have signed JT to the 2nd highest NHL AAV contract with a motivated player to play for the Leafs.

JT's contract in fact proves my point not disputes it with regards to Dubas.

If Dubas continues to overpay (the potential fear based on inexperience) Matthews, Marner and Nylander above their player comparables to get them signed to new deals then, what I was pointing out has in fact happened and Leafs will soon find themselves in Salary Cap concerns in short order.

 

[Mess]

I'm not sure who KD is but that was only in like the first year Lou was here from what I heard.

KD = Kyle Dubas = right out of the horses mouth directly.

 

[DanM]

So you didn't understand the point. You want to sign Marner early, you need a fair assessment of what you think he will produce next year with a stress test of the ceiling. Marner will not sign today based on his current production when the indicators point to a much better year next year.

Oh sorry buddy! I was not actually aiming that at you. I didn't mean to come off like an A-hole lol

I hear what you are saying, but as of right now he is not worth that. Future or not, it would be like giving William Karlsson a 9m contract, even though he has never had a year like last year.

These players need to realize what they are worth right now, look at other player contracts, and meet somewhere close to that AVV.

 

[Sypher04]

KD = Kyle Dubas = right out of the horses mouth directly.

Haha not sure how I missed who KD was. But I'm quite sure he never said that he was banished to the Marlies for 3 years.

 

[Mess]

Well said

I don't understand why people are thinking our guys will be able to get blank cheques and Dubas will just say "How Much"

They should all be paid accordingly, and looking at stats and other contracts around the NHL, 8.5 for Marner alone is laughable....... right now

That is true, but the tables will soon be reversed and Marner will be the one laughing all the way to the bank by waiting and signing next summer, not now with lower player comparables today.

Leafs will have nobody but themselves to blame, because the negative consequences of signing JT an elite top C in the NHL and the playing Marner on his wing will inflate Marner potential stats accordingly (adding ~+20) so that his asking price a year from now when his points are 85-90 potentially to that +$8.5 mil per number quoted today.

Playing Marner with JT, will likely have the same statistical impact for Mitch as Mikko Rantanen (84 points in 81 games) from Marner's draft class benefited by playing shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon.

All decisions have consequences and none more than Marner's next contract as a result of other player moves, the biggest being JT addition in this case. Leafs have set the table to drive up Marner's next contract.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner's agent will emphasize the 2nd half of the season and project his asking price based on what you done lately, while Dubas should counter that argument with the 1st half results, to put a drag on that asking price based on actual performance over the course of the full season. Many players get hot and many players struggle at times so the average is often the more reasonable landing point.

Also ES 5v5 verses specialty team points should also be a factor in the process as Marner 27 PPP of his 69 (~40%) leaving 42 points over 82 games at ES (=~.5 PPG). Marner feast on the point on the PP, but at ES 5v5 only a proven .5 PPG player.. Dubas as a advanced stats guru also keenly aware of this.

This is a very different situation for Matthews who is an even strength beast and used the PP and specialty time (only 13 points total) very little to boost his point totals (where man advantage is generally feasting time for star players).

In a direct comparison of teammates here the potential for Matthews to explode statistically is much greater once his PP unit starts clicking and his 5v5 play remains strong.. Marner was already tied for 20th in league in PP points so his PP performance is near max so he will need to become a much better ES contributor to ask for elite money.

After January, he was a .655 ES ppg player which is 31% higher.

 

[kb]

FYI .. Tavares has the 2nd highest AAV at $11 mil in the entire NHL behind only McDavid for this coming season & Tavares picked his hometown more than Dubas got him to sign here for that $$.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Anyone on this board could have signed JT to the 2nd highest NHL AAV contract with a motivated player to play for the Leafs.

JT's contract in fact proves my point not disputes it with regards to Dubas.

If Dubas continues to overpay (the potential fear based on inexperience) Matthews, Marner and Nylander above their player comparables to get them signed to new deals then, what I was pointing out has in fact happened and Leafs will soon find themselves in Salary Cap concerns in short order.

That's some very interesting mental gymnastics there. Tavares had a $13 million dollar per offer on the table from at least one other suitor. So giving up $14 million is a huge coup for Dubas any way you try to slice it. No one truly knows how big the "Hometown factor" was in the decision making process.

It also needs to be acknowledged that Tavares is the biggest fish to make it to market in the cap era, and Dubas landed him. No other Leaf GM has done this.

 

[therealkoho]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-tavares-focused-on-negotiations-with-islanders~1417629

Towards the end of the segment Darren Dreger says Marner and Leafs could be a battle and that Marner's representatives have the stats to back them up in asking for Jack Eichel money.

There was a whole main board discussion on this recently.

Link: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/marner-negotiations-could-be-a-battle.2503207/​

Dreger, really? Well I guess then it must be true

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Look at what players are making as salaries:

Ehlers - 6 million per
Barkov - 5.9 million per
Forsberg - 6 million per
Hall - 6 million per
Pasternak - 6.6 million per
Oshie - 5.75 million per
Backstrom - 6.7 million per
Monohan - 6.3 million per
Gaudreau - 6.7 million per
Scheifele - 6.1 million per
MacKinnion - 6.3 million per
Kessel - 6.8 million per

And there are more the list can go on. Players that are making anywhere from 5.5-7 million a season that are proven players for longer then both Marner and Nylander. That being said, I understand that the cap has gone up. But arbitration should work with what others are being paid. This will prevent teams from getting into trouble and being able to keep competitive. Paying players above what others are making is bad business.

The Leafs should sign Nylander to a 5 year deal where he becomes a free agent one more time prior to his 30's. Like the majority of these players did in their first contract after their entry level one. If not and he wants long term like 7-8 years, then he needs to be a little more realistic like all the other players were.

He either wants to be part of the solution, or he can be moved to be the solution someplace else. But he definitely is going to the only solution in Toronto and he needs to come to grips with that.

Same goes with Marner.

Excellent post. Agree with all of it, especially the "proven players" part.

 

[therealkoho]

he didn't negotiate any deals once LL came , KD said in an interview he was shunted off to the Marlies as soon as Lou was hired and little to do with the Leafs

this doesn't mean he won't negotiate good deals and he does have two agm's who are well respected on the business side to help him

I'm a total news junkie, and I can't recall Dubas saying that or anything closely resembling it! Do you perhaps have a link?

 

[Mess]

After January, he was a .655 ES ppg player which is 31% higher.

42 points in 82 games = .512 ES PPG on the full season an average taking out the peaks and valleys.

If your number is correct .655 ES ppg (from Jan-April) then that means (from Oct-Dec) he as running at .369 ES ppg.

So in terms of contract talks who is the real Mitch Marner the .369 ES (1st half) or .655 ES (2nd half) or .512 (full season average)?

 

[Garthinater]

Best thing for the leafs would be for marner and matthews to not explode this coming season. If they both get 80-90+ points we'll be looking at some big money.

That's how some teams have steals ala scheifele (sp?). They signed long term and exploded after.

 

[Notsince67]

42 points in 82 games = .512 ES PPG on the full season an average taking out the peaks and valleys.

If your number is correct .655 ES ppg (from Jan-April) then that means (from Oct-Dec) he as running at .369 ES ppg.

So in terms of contract talks who is the real Mitch Marner the .369 ES (1st half) or .655 ES (2nd half) or .512 (full season average)?

Good question. Pretty sure my numbers are right.
This is my data on his points (I included PP incase anyone was interested):

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	P	Time	type	Description
36	2/3/2018	TOR	BOS	1	0.335417	PP	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri
37	2/5/2018	TOR	ANA	2	0.644444	PP	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk
38	2/10/2018	TOR	OTT	1	0.079861	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner
39	2/10/2018	TOR	OTT	1	0.479167	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Patrick Marleau and Nazem Kadri
40	2/10/2018	TOR	OTT	2	0.577083	PP	Goal by James van Riemsdyk, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
41	2/10/2018	TOR	OTT	3	0.103472	EV	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Patrick Marleau
42	2/10/2018	TOR	OTT	3	0.776389	EV	Goal by Patrick Marleau, assisted by Mitch Marner
43	2/12/2018	TOR	TBL	2	0.130556	EV	Goal by William Nylander, assisted by Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner
44	2/14/2018	TOR	CBJ	2	0.428472	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau
45	2/14/2018	TOR	CBJ	3	0.472917	EV	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Patrick Marleau
46	2/18/2018	TOR	DET	2	0.305556	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Nazem Kadri
47	2/22/2018	TOR	NYI	1	0.735417	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau
48	2/24/2018	TOR	BOS	1	0.302083	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by William Nylander and Roman Polak
49	2/24/2018	TOR	BOS	1	0.4375	PP	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by James van Riemsdyk and Mitch Marner
50	2/24/2018	TOR	BOS	2	0.794444	PP	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Jake Gardiner
51	2/24/2018	TOR	BOS	3	0.775694	EV	Goal by Ron Hainsey, assisted by William Nylander and Mitch Marner
52	2/26/2018	TOR	TBL	1	0.411111	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev
53	2/26/2018	TOR	TBL	3	0.227083	PP	Goal by Tyler Bozak, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
54	3/5/2018	TOR	BUF	3	0.747917	PP	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Connor Carrick and Morgan Rielly
55	3/10/2018	TOR	PIT	2	0.482639	PP	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
56	3/10/2018	TOR	PIT	2	0.766667	PP	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Morgan Rielly
57	3/14/2018	TOR	DAL	3	0.446528	PP	Goal by James van Riemsdyk, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
58	3/14/2018	TOR	DAL	3	0.822222	EV	Goal by Patrick Marleau, assisted by Mitch Marner and Jake Gardiner
59	3/15/2018	TOR	BUF	2	0.590278	PP	Goal by Tyler Bozak, assisted by James van Riemsdyk and Mitch Marner
60	3/17/2018	TOR	MTL	2	0.813194	PP	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
61	3/20/2018	TOR	TBL	1	0.629167	EV	Goal by James van Riemsdyk, assisted by Mitch Marner and Connor Carrick
62	3/22/2018	TOR	NSH	1	0.16875	PP	Goal by James van Riemsdyk, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
63	3/22/2018	TOR	NSH	3	0.00625	PP	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Morgan Rielly and Tyler Bozak
64	3/24/2018	TOR	DET	3	0.523611	EV	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Patrick Marleau and Mitch Marner
65	3/26/2018	TOR	BUF	2	0.729861	EV	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Patrick Marleau
66	3/28/2018	TOR	FLA	1	0.128472	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Morgan Rielly and Tomas Plekanec
67	3/28/2018	TOR	FLA	1	0.579861	EV	Goal by Patrick Marleau, assisted by Mitch Marner
68	3/30/2018	TOR	NYI	1	0.681944	PP	Goal by Nazem Kadri, assisted by Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly
69	3/30/2018	TOR	NYI	2	0.720833	EV	Goal by Mitch Marner, assisted by Jake Gardiner and Nazem Kadri

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[PromisedLand]

I think that point that a lot of Leaf fans forget is that Marner spent 1/2 the season mired and bogged down on the 3rd and 4th lines last year struggling mightily in the first half the season and on pace for 6 goals on the season by Christmas.. No question he was red hot in the 2nd half after being promoted to the Kadri line to help it out as it was struggling and that carried forward into the playoffs.

So which is the real Mitch Marner the 1str half or the 2nd half or perhaps somewhere in the middle?

This fact can't be lost on Dubas and Leafs management that young player inconsistency has to be playing a part in contract negotiations.

How can a player ask for the moon when his track record and performance is verifiable statistically and providing the basis for the ask?

Dubas surrounded himself by guys who know the CBA and a capologists; so I am not at all concerned about his inexperience.

 

[PromisedLand]

Excellent post. Agree with all of it, especially the "proven players" part.

just FYI Kessel's cap hit is 8 not 6.8; Leafs are still paying 1.2 for Kessel's salary

 

[Mess]

That's some very interesting mental gymnastics there. Tavares had a $13 million dollar per offer on the table from at least one other suitor. So giving up $14 million is a huge coup for Dubas any way you try to slice it. No one truly knows how big the "Hometown factor" was in the decision making process.

It also needs to be acknowledged that Tavares is the biggest fish to make it to market in the cap era, and Dubas landed him. No other Leaf GM has done this.

If Lou Lam was still the Leafs GM then JT would still be here because it was Location, Location, Location and playing for his childhood team not GM that drove that outcome. No other team could offer JT his hometown and fulfill a childhood dream so it didn't matter how much money they offered as they couldn't offer what he truly desired..

Despite the hometown discount Dubas still made JT the highest paid player in the NHL (Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps) this up coming season by giving him $15.9 mil (CBA max allowable ) in actually salary and 2nd highest in AAV @ $11 mil (per term).

That is exactly why I'm nervous about Dubas, in hopes he doesn't continue to follow this strategy with the 3 Amigos. Its one thing to toss everything on the table to recruit a prized UFA, but much different situation when you have controllable RFA players (without arbitration rights). With RFAs the team has the leverage and with UFAs the market has the leverage and the player controls the destination.

 

[kb]

If Lou Lam was still the Leafs GM then JT would still be here because it was Location, Location, Location and playing for his childhood team not GM that drove that outcome. No other team could offer JT his hometown and fulfill a childhood dream so it didn't matter how much money they offered as they couldn't offer what he truly desired..

Despite the hometown discount Dubas still made JT the highest paid player in the NHL (Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps) this up coming season by giving him $15.9 mil (CBA max allowable ) in actually salary and 2nd highest in AAV @ $11 mil (per term).

That is exactly why I'm nervous about Dubas, in hopes he doesn't continue to follow this strategy with the 3 Amigos. Its one thing to toss everything on the table to recruit a prized UFA, but much different situation when you have controllable RFA players (without arbitration rights). With RFAs the team has the leverage and with UFAs the market has the leverage and the player controls the destination.

Stamkos had Leaf jammies too. Where did he end up?

And we are talking about the biggest fish to hit free agency in the cap era, signing for below what he could have. Leaf jammies or not, this is still a business, and money is still money.

You can't play both sides here like you are doing. UFA and RFA without arb rights are vastly dissimilar. He didn't overpay for Tavares, yet your implication is that he did. All 3 amigos have expressed a desire to be here long term. Yet they have ZERO recourse, and will sign the deals for the dollars that the Leafs want them to sign at. That is why they have Pridham and Gilman. Both CBA experts and are well versed in how to manage the cap.

This is absolutely a baseless and bizarre take.

 

[I Believe]

Best thing for the leafs would be for marner and matthews to not explode this coming season. If they both get 80-90+ points we'll be looking at some big money.

That's how some teams have steals ala scheifele (sp?). They signed long term and exploded after.

That's why i'm hoping all 3 sign long term this offseason.
Then there's no downside to the point explosion

 

[Willy Stylez]

In a cap world yes, lets say we save 2m per player, that's 6 million, that's flexibility to add on the backend.

Just stop, Leafs are not going to be able to save 2m per player. That is wishful thinking, if Leafs can save 2m in total with the three amigos you should be happy.

 

[Garthinater]

That's why i'm hoping all 3 sign long term this offseason.
Then there's no downside to the point explosion

Haha I'd be okay with this!