Marner's Next Contract

[ToneDog]

I'd bridge Nylander

I'd offer Mitch 8 X 8.75

Too rich for my blood but if Dubbas can make it work, it is not my money.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I'd bridge Nylander

I'd offer Mitch 8 X 8.75

And then you end up paying Nylander way more than 8.75 after the bridge is up...

 

[ToneDog]

I'm thinking you are in the right range to get a deal done early. People do not realize that Pastrnak's contract was 6 years...not 8. The extra 2 years cost. Maybe Marner compromises with a 5-6 year deal. I only know this. If a deal isn't signed by the 1st game of the regular season....if Marner scores a hat trick that night...I will have to medicate myself to get to sleep.

Let him score hat tricks at will. If we can't sign him to a deal that works for us, we trade him for a stud dman. Mitch wants to be a Leaf. He will sign a cap friendly deal. If not, we'll need to move Willie.

 

[hector morrison]

I suspect that these youngsters have the'big picture' and are fully aware of the effect their cap hits have on the team.That is to say, if they want to stay together because they think they have a winning line-up then their ask will be reasonable.
I also would expect Dubas/Shanny to respectfully do the math for them.
I'm thinkin' it'll all be good!

 

[ToneDog]

And then you end up paying Nylander way more than 8.75 after the bridge is up...

No you trade him for a sailor's ransom if need be.

 

[Muston Atthews]

No you trade him for a sailor's ransom if need be.

No, you just lock both of them up long term

 

[Kamiccolo]

There were reports out there that Marner will be seeking Eichel $10 mil per money per season..Not sure how much truth there is to those however.

If that is truly the ask then I can't see Dubas having any option but to wait and have Marner prove it first. With JT or Matthews as his centre next year betting Mitch feels he would be willing to in fact "prove it".

If Dubas is at $7 mil (based on actual comparables) and Marner camp at $10 mil (based on future potential) then its hard to see a solution with a $3 mil gap/season. Can't imagine Dubas saying "lets split the difference and go 8 X $8.5 and call it a day".

I'd also predict if Marner was willing to take $7-$7.5 mil now, he would likely already be re-signed as that is a number I could see Dubas offering and willing to accept also.

I don't get why. Marner is a Leaf fan, living the dream. Loves the team, loves hockey, loves the city. On a winning team, fan favorite. Why is he the one looking to milk the team?

I love Marner, if he wants 10M then I am moving him in a package for a #1 D.

 

[ToneDog]

No, you just lock both of them up long term

Sure if Dubas can make it work. What if he can't ? Somebody may need to be sacrificed the way the Hawks had to.

 

[diceman934]

Me either.
Who is Luke Fox?

If Mathews asks and gets more then JT then Dubas is an idiot and I do not think he is. Signing JT for 11m per capped Mathews average at 11m per and not a penny more.

I also think that Marner could wait until next year and get 8.5 million and it would be considered a discount. I am hopeful that the JT signing brings Marner in under 8m per this year. 7.85 per for 8 years with a full NMC after 4 years. He would still be able to sign another 8 year deal at a current rate maximizing his life earnings . Some big sponsorship money who help as well.

Nylander I can only see a bridge deal coming or a lower long term deal and I simply do not see him accepting less then Marner now. Maybe we can get them both to sign a 7 year $51m approx total. 7.25 A year average.

Or how about we put all 3 in a room and say we have 25.m per year to sign the 3 of you. You guys work out the amounts each is getting average per year and we can structure the contracts the best way so as to maximize your money. Lock the door and tell them to come out when they have it done. Each contract is for 7 years minimum.

 

[Notsince67]

Let him score hat tricks at will. If we can't sign him to a deal that works for us, we trade him for a stud dman. Mitch wants to be a Leaf. He will sign a cap friendly deal. If not, we'll need to move Willie.

so you think the team should encourage Marner do the best he can, but if he hits 95 or so points, he will get a 3MM haircut from his fair value or he will get traded.
A real pay for performance culture you are advocating. In business, there is nothing wrong with buying down risk but don't cry when the risk becomes a reality

 

[I Believe]

Mitch and Willie have about a dozen comparables making $6-7 mil, and maybe 1 overpaid one in Draisaitl.

Hope to lock them all up this year.

 

[ToneDog]

so you think the team should encourage Marner do the best he can, but if he hits 95 or so points, he will get a 3MM haircut from his fair value or he will get traded.
A real pay for performance culture you are advocating. In business, there is nothing wrong with buying down risk but don't cry when the risk becomes a reality

Where did I say take a $3M haircut ? If he does well, you sign him. If you can't because he asks for more than you are willing to pay, you move him. Probably what the Jets do with Trouba but I think Mitch will give a hometown discount.

 

[Notsince67]

And then you end up paying Nylander way more than 8.75 after the bridge is up...

How much is way more? What are the terms of the bridge?

 

[Notsince67]

Where did I say take a $3M haircut ? If he does well, you sign him. If you can't because he asks for more than you are willing to pay, you move him.

3MM is diff between 10MM and 7MM that people proposed

Hypothetically... moving a 95 point Marner at 8.5 MM vs a 95 point Marner at 10MM, what do you think the difference would be? Clearly there is a big loss if Marner goes to 10MM.
I'd rather have a 10MM player at 8.5MM than trade a 10MM player and get a 10MM player return.

 

[MyBudJT]

Why do people have any sort of fixation on WHEN players sign? It doesn't matter! What matters is 'How much'??

 

[ToneDog]

3MM is diff between 10MM and 7MM that people proposed

Hypothetically... moving a 95 point Marner at 8.5 MM vs a 95 point Marner at 10MM, what do you think the difference would be? Clearly there is a big loss if Marner goes to 10MM.
I'd rather have a 10MM player at 8.5MM than trade a 10MM player and get a 10MM player return.

Nobody is taking a $3M/year haircut although Schiefele is pretty close in Winnipeg.

 

[Savvy]

Why do people have any sort of fixation on WHEN players sign? It doesn't matter! What matters is 'How much'??

To be fair the when often does have an effect on the how much.

 

[MyBudJT]

To be fair the when often does have an effect on the how much.

Sure, but the concern shouldn’t be ‘oh no! He’s signing in April’, it should be ‘I hope he signs for $X.

 

[Notsince67]

Nobody is taking a $3M/year haircut although Schiefele is pretty close in Winnipeg.

Exactly my point. There is an upper limit and a lower limit. The lower one is likely around 7MM (no indication he will play worse than last year). The upper one is 10mm. If he put away the right number of points (in my mind 95-100), he is worth the 10MM.
If Dubas insists on paying him what he has produced, Marner will just not sign until next year. If Marner produces a 10MM season, then Dubas clearly had a bad strategy.
How to fix the strategy...
1. Determine the base based on locked in performance (in my mind 7MM)

2. Do a fair assessment of what Marner will produce next year (in my mind better than this year due to better QoT and the elimination of the impact of the early demotion last year….say 80 points)

3. Stress test assumption of worse case scenario (my mind 96 points because it will likely yield a 10MM contract)

Item 2 might put him closer to 8MM
This is defendable position except that if Marner comes to the same conclusion, he is asking himself why would he sign early when there is a possibility that he can get #3..,That is a 2MM difference which is equal to the discount Tavares took on a much higher contract. It is a full 25% of 8MM

How can Dubas incent Marner to sign early? He meets him somewhere in between. Marner (in his mind) will mitigate his own risk against injury and take some team discount. Dubas mitigates his risk of having a 10MM player he can't afford.

8.5MM-8.8MM

 

[frizzer1]

. Marner (in his mind) will mitigate his own risk against injury and take some team discount.

8.5MM-8.8MM

Yeah..
If Marner or Matthews don't sign now they are taking a huge risk.....what if they get injured seriously?

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah..
If Marner or Matthews don't sign now they are taking a huge risk.....what if they get injured seriously?

Marner's style of play keeps himself relatively safer than many.
How much would you pay for that insurance? 2MMx8=16MM?

 

[DopeyFish]

Sure if Dubas can make it work. What if he can't ? Somebody may need to be sacrificed the way the Hawks had to.

toews contract, bolland contract, seabrook contract, bickell contract

blackhawks screwed themselves with bad contracts... and they're still screwing themselves with bad contracts

like who the hell is connor murphy and why does he have a $23 million contract... good god

 

[Willy Stylez]

If Marner and Matty try to blow the bank up on these contracts, and it hurts the team, they will be crapped on buy our media and fans for being selfish, especially if those contracts costs us other players and assets.

They deserve to get what they are worth. f*** the media.

 

[Damisoph]

I still want them to trot out the three kids at the same press conference in September sometime. Get Marner signed before he gets 80 points this season.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Nobody is taking a $3M/year haircut although Schiefele is pretty close in Winnipeg.

Scheifele hadn’t really broken out when he signed his contract. If he would have had another year on his contract and preformed like he did he would have signed for a lot more. Jets lucked out he didn’t