Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Mess]

Dubas has linemates Nylander and Matthews hitting UFA status in 5 years together, so maybe the "framework" is to have Marner and linemate Tavares hit free agency status in 6 years together.

Hard to imagine the plan would be for Marner to get a 5 year deal and then joining AM and WN all hitting UFA at the same time.

 

[ToneDog]

Is it entirely the Toronto factor as to why only Marner is being linked with crazy money?

Point is a better all around player and a centerman yet its crickets for his projected contract. The tax factor is more than compensated by the sponsorship factor too. As Marner will make more in sponsorship in TO than Point would save in TB.

Rantanen and Aho are the closest comparables for Marner so we should be judging Marner's contract against the others in his RFA class.

Marner is not going to compare himself to other RFAs. He is going to say I have lead the team in scoring the past two years and will compare himself to Matthews. Aho can say he is the Canes' best player but the Canes do not have anybody making what the top Leaf players are making. Rantanen is not the best player on the Avs and Mac is making $6+. Dubas has managed to tie a noose around his neck with the Nylander and Matthews contracts and Marner is going to tighten the noose.

 

[Notsince67]

Not at all close if you factor in playoff performances.

9.2 x 5 would match Kane's first contract. Anymore than that and his camp is claiming he is a better player than Kane at the same age

I am saying that a Kane contract is market. Any confusion of why he will get paid more than that are ignoring the contract dynamic of Toronto. Matthews and Nylander are overpaid. Marner will be as well

 

[BlueForever75]

I think many will be surprised on term and cost when this is all said and done. With teams like Colorado and TB being in similar situations as the Leafs with Rantanen and Point, I would love those teams to work out deals on their players before Toronto does with Marner. The reason why is like the Leafs, those teams have their other top players locked up (Col - MacKinnon, Landeskog AND TB - Stamkos, Kucherov). Their upcoming RFA's will not make more then their already signed cores. They will try to sell both players on the importance of keeping a winner together and taking a hometown discount. My hope is they both sign for less then 10 million per season to keep their respective cores on their teams together. This would make the Marner signing all that much more easier for Dubas.

My guess is the other 2 players sign before Marner shortly after playoffs end. And Marner ends up take a true hometown discount long term 7yrs at 9.85 million per.

 

[meefer]

Per Shanny during his tour after signing the new contract: when asked about Marner’s new deal, Shanahan referenced Pridham as being a highly competent numbers guy.
My point: while many here praise or condemn Dubas for the contracts the Leafs sign, and he is ultimately responsible, Shanahan’s comment leads me to believe that the numbers are Pridham’s responsibility. He’s the capologist. I’m sure management collaborates, but we may be underestimating the Pridham ‘effect’.

 

[DarkKnight]

Yeah sure, 0.94 PPG to 0.92 PPG.

But Kane signed for 5 years at 11.09% of the cap (9.2M in today's cap). At this point Kane had a ROY, a Stanley Cup (where he had 28 points in 22 games) and had a 9th place finish in overall points in the league.

Marner has had one ridiculous season playing with one of the best play driving and HD chance generating centers in the entire league and has a 11th place overall finish to show for it. No awards as well? Marner should not be making that money unless it's for a much longer deal, and even then I'm skeptical.

I'm sort of done with true comparables because Dubas hasn't really followed that, especially when you factor in all important term(which is critical and conventiently left out often), so I'm expecting Marner makes more than he should here.

As for this last paragraph, where you make it sound like Marner was somewhat riding JT's coat tails, it's a bid odd. Tavares has been in this league for a decade, and yet it was this year that he blew away his 5 v 5 production, goals and points, not even close! Why was that? And why does a good player need to apologize for playing with another good player, isn't that how it works? Where are your posts wherein you say Willie was a byproduct of Matthews? Where's the intellectual consistency with some of you guys? Seem to want it both ways. Matthews didn't miss a beat without Nylander this year production wise, yet JT had a career season by a wide margin playing with Mitch...but god forbid we apply the same standards.

I'm tired of the soft bash with regards to Marner from people who have never uttered anything resembling criticism towards Nylander, read like his agent or father. It's just bizarre as shit to me.

Yes Marner doesn't deserve 10 plus, agreed. Matthews didn't deserve McDavid money either, especially with the scant term. And Nylander ditto with his term and salary. You'll spend all year defending Nylander, but then turn around here and suddenly find a critical eye. Again, odd.

Our whole salary structure is a mess. I'm just hoping Marner does "cave" somewhat, and by that mean take fair value which is under 10 when looking at realistic comparables, not the precedent Dubas has created.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Anyone hoping for an AAV under 10 million for 5 plus years is going to be disappointed.

I am expecting 10-11 million per over 5-6 years. That is the reality of the situation that we are in unless Dubas is willing to let Marner sit out, which is highly unlikely after the Nylander debacle.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah sure, 0.94 PPG to 0.92 PPG.

But Kane signed for 5 years at 11.09% of the cap (9.2M in today's cap). At this point Kane had a ROY, a Stanley Cup (where he had 28 points in 22 games) and had a 9th place finish in overall points in the league.

Marner has had one ridiculous season playing with one of the best play driving and HD chance generating centers in the entire league and has a 11th place overall finish to show for it. No awards as well? Marner should not be making that money unless it's for a much longer deal, and even then I'm skeptical.

Stanley cups are in the Marner formula? Who knew? Anymore arbitrary factors that over ride points? You are swimming in quicksand in an effort to avoid the biggest factor. Matthews and Nylander were overpaid. Marner will be looking for that as well.

 

[hector morrison]

I think many will be surprised on term and cost when this is all said and done. With teams like Colorado and TB being in similar situations as the Leafs with Rantanen and Point, I would love those teams to work out deals on their players before Toronto does with Marner. The reason why is like the Leafs, those teams have their other top players locked up (Col - MacKinnon, Landeskog AND TB - Stamkos, Kucherov). Their upcoming RFA's will not make more then their already signed cores. They will try to sell both players on the importance of keeping a winner together and taking a hometown discount. My hope is they both sign for less then 10 million per season to keep their respective cores on their teams together. This would make the Marner signing all that much more easier for Dubas.

My guess is the other 2 players sign before Marner shortly after playoffs end. And Marner ends up take a true hometown discount long term 7yrs at 9.85 million per.

If those teams are smart,they had better get those guys signed before Marner does. Or they risk having to possibly pay more than Marner gets.Agents for Point,Rantanen ,Aho can all argue their player is better!

 

[hotpaws]

The salary cap needs to stay, but they need to find a way to reward teams for drafting well.
Players that signed with the team that drafted them should have only 75% on their salary count against the cap or something like that.

we're not being punished for drafting well , we're being punished because we decided to sign an 11m dollar ufa and for incompetent mgmt

instead of pimping himself in the media while also trying to promote himself as some froward out of the box thinking new age executive he should have realized the price for his rfa's was only going to go higher the longer he dragged his feet and he should have signed all 3 last summer

instead he went hard with his "we vs me" media strategy which accomplished nothing and led to him setting new highs for ufa's

 

[Notsince67]

I wonder if they go the bridge route at 9M x 3 yrs???

I would be happy if the leafs could swing that. Gives them a chance to weather the storm

 

[MyBudJT]

6 yrs x 10.116 is my prediction.

 

[Morgs]

I'm sort of done with true comparables because Dubas hasn't really followed that, especially when you factor in all important term(which is critical and conventiently left out often), so I'm expecting Marner makes more than he should here.

As for this last paragraph, where you make it sound like Marner was somewhat riding JT's coat tails, it's a bid odd. Tavares has been in this league for a decade, and yet it was this year that he blew away his 5 v 5 production, goals and points, not even close! Why was that? And why does a good player need to apologize for playing with another good player, isn't that how it works? Where are your posts wherein you say Willie was a byproduct of Matthews? Where's the intellectual consistency with some of you guys? Seem to want it both ways. Matthews didn't miss a beat without Nylander this year production wise, yet JT had a career season by a wide margin playing with Mitch...but god forbid we apply the same standards.

I'm tired of the soft bash with regards to Marner from people who have never uttered anything resembling criticism towards Nylander, read like his agent or father. It's just bizarre as **** to me.

Yes Marner doesn't deserve 10 plus, agreed. Matthews didn't deserve McDavid money either, especially with the scant term. And Nylander ditto with his term and salary. You'll spend all year defending Nylander, but then turn around here and suddenly find a critical eye. Again, odd.

Our whole salary structure is a mess. I'm just hoping Marner does "cave" somewhat, and by that mean take fair value which is under 10 when looking at realistic comparables, not the precedent Dubas has created.

Matthews out of his ELC - 5 years, 14.36% of the cap, 0.97PPG, 0.52 GPG.
Malkin out of his ELC - 5 years, 15.34% of the cap, 1.11PPG, 0.48 GPG.

The problem with Matthews is his closest comparable is Malkin? Nobody knows because there's never been a player like him before. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer since he's been in the league and his points are increasing too as he's getting older and better. As I've said before, the money isn't the problem as it's very deserving, the years hurt.

Nylander out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.7% of the cap, 0.73 PPG
Pastrnak out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.89% of the cap, 0.72 PPG

Yes, I believe Marner has ridden Tavares' coattails to the bank. Now, I do believe that they've helped each other and Marner is by far the best linemate Tavares as ever had, but also Tavares had by far his best isolated impact of his entire career. Let's see if Marner does the same if Tavares goes back to his usual form.

Marner's contract is so important because his value to the team is far less than both Tavares/Matthews and if we pay him 2-3M (10.5M-11.5M) too much that's the difference of us being able to afford a Johnsson-type player.

 

[Morgs]

Stanley cups are in the Marner formula? Who knew? Anymore arbitrary factors that over ride points? You are swimming in quicksand in an effort to avoid the biggest factor. Matthews and Nylander were overpaid. Marner will be looking for that as well.

See my other post above.

 

[thewave]

Dubas has the blank check? What is a possible framework? Isn't that the step after the first step??? Lol

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I have a feeling this contract is gonna hurt and be even worse than Matthews contract....

My prediction is at the end of the day Marner will get up getting paid more than Kutcherov, Benn and other elite mostly UFA wingers while also getting paid more than RFA guys like Rantenen.

If Mitch makes double digits it pretty much means AJ and/or Kap are gone.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Tampa is in much worse shape. Point puts them way over this year and Vasi puts them way over again next year. They will be shedding assets this summer and next summer to sign both guys. Their team will be weaker. This CAP really sucks. It forces teams to be weaker. We should be more like NBA and want teams to improve every year even if they have to pay more in tax. Let the better teams get better. Reward teams that draft well and develop well. Don't you want to see hockey on ice get better every season. Parity sucks. or maybe we just flip a coin on who wins the Cup every year like the draft lottery. and everyone gets a participation award. and for that matter why keep score because it is really all about the coin flip anyways.

 

[Budsfan]

Marner will be signed and will get paid well, he is arguably our best player but the cap will be stretched and I can see a large turn over of players, to get below the cap.

 

[DarkKnight]

Matthews out of his ELC - 5 years, 14.36% of the cap, 0.97PPG, 0.52 GPG.
Malkin out of his ELC - 5 years, 15.34% of the cap, 1.11PPG, 0.48 GPG.

The problem with Matthews is his closest comparable is Malkin? Nobody knows because there's never been a player like him before. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer since he's been in the league and his points are increasing too as he's getting older and better. As I've said before, the money isn't the problem as it's very deserving, the years hurt.

Nylander out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.7% of the cap, 0.73 PPG
Pastrnak out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.89% of the cap, 0.72 PPG

View attachment 228009

Yes, I believe Marner has ridden Tavares' coattails to the bank. Now, I do believe that they've helped each other and Marner is by far the best linemate Tavares as ever had, but also Tavares had by far his best isolated impact of his entire career. Let's see if Marner does the same if Tavares goes back to his usual form.

Marner's contract is so important because his value to the team is far less than both Tavares/Matthews and if we pay him 2-3M (10.5M-11.5M) too much that's the difference of us being able to afford a Johnsson-type player.

I mean. Marner is a third year pro, you're acting like natural progression isn't expected. His production last year wasn't exactly out of nowhere, unless of course you ignore the second half and playoffs of his SECOND year, nevermind his excellent ROOKIE year. Was Marner riding Kadri's coat tails last year second half? How exactly does one isolate a player on a line, did it ever dawn on you that the focus on Marner might just free up JT to an extent he's never enjoyed in his career? Isn't that a fair read. And again, when you start treating Nylander in a similar fashion perhaps your criticism of Marner won't just look the biased selectivism currently on display now.

Did JT help Marner. Yep. Did Marner help JT. Yep. Does Bergeron help Marchand?

 

[Clark4Ever]

I have a feeling this contract is gonna hurt and be even worse than Matthews contract....

My prediction is at the end of the day Marner will get up getting paid more than Kutcherov, Benn and other elite mostly UFA wingers while also getting paid more than RFA guys like Rantenen.

If Mitch makes double digits it pretty much means AJ and/or Kap are gone.

Timing is everything.

 

[hotpaws]

Tampa is in much worse shape. Point puts them way over this year and Vasi puts them way over again next year. They will be shedding assets this summer and next summer to sign both guys. Their team will be weaker. This CAP really sucks. It forces teams to be weaker. We should be more like NBA and want teams to improve every year even if they have to pay more in tax. Let the better teams get better. Reward teams that draft well and develop well. Don't you want to see hockey on ice get better every season. Parity sucks. or maybe we just flip a coin on who wins the Cup every year like the draft lottery. and everyone gets a participation award. and for that matter why keep score because it is really all about the coin flip anyways.

the cap is fine and without it you wind up like the MLB where the richest teams just outspend everyone and the rest of the league ends up just being there feeder system which would be great as a Leaf fan but sucks as a Jay fan and this would kill a large number of markets in the league since Hockey unlike Baseball isn't a main sport in the U.S.

drafting and developing well is important but there's also a fair amount of luck involved , had we not won the lottery we wouldn't have Mathews and had the Marner draft not been as deep as it was Mitch goes a spot or two higher and we end up missing out on him

and at the end of the day if your a sports fan you want winning to be more than just about how much money you can spend

 

[Fakejake51]

Come on offer sheet.

 

[egd27]

It might be. It could be done tomorrow. Like I said, it'll be done by the draft so anytime between now and then.

With that said, I don't think there's a problem with the Leafs announcing anything right now if they wanted to, just like teams announcing GMs, coaches, etc. Leafs just announced Shanahan re-signing too.

Fair enough

 

[Fogelhund]

Marner will be signed and will get paid well, he is arguably our best player but the cap will be stretched and I can see a large turn over of players, to get below the cap.

My opinion is that he's our fifth best player, behind Tavares, Matthews, Andersen and Reilly... not posted in any order.

 

[Auston Powers]

The salary cap needs to stay, but they need to find a way to reward teams for drafting well.
Players that signed with the team that drafted them should have only 75% on their salary count against the cap or something like that.

This is one of the best ideas I have heard in a while.
Kinda like putting a tax on people from out of country that want to buy our land for cheap to earn income meanwhile the people who grew up here can't afford the basic necessity of a home. Yes I live in Toronto. And Yes I am 46 years old. And Yes I am a professional and have been so for 20 years. And Yes I can't afford a home.