Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Jozay]

Im thinking somewhere in the 6 year, 10-10.5 range.

Not a huge fan of that number, but im prepared for it.

 

[hotpaws]

There's one major elephant in the room with that demand:

Mikko Rantanen average PP TOI: 4:05

Mitch Marner average PP TOI: 2:35


Mikko Rantanen EV TOI: 16:44

Mitch Marner EV TOI: 15:53


Mikko Rantanen TOI/GP: 20:51

Mitch Marner TOI/GP: 19:49


Less PP time, less ES time, MORE PK time (minutes where you just don't produce). They will not receive the same contracts, you can clearly see from the different usage pointed out above that Marner has his offensive production artificially suppressed.

and Rant is clearly the 2nd best player on the Avs while there top player makes 6m as opposed to MM having a strong case of saying he's been our best or at worst equal to the Leafs top players who both of whom earn 11m per

 

[Jozay]

and Rant is clearly the 2nd best player on the Avs while there top player makes 6m as opposed to MM having a strong case of saying he's been our best or at worst equal to the Leafs top players who both of whom earn 11m per

But Marner is definitely not the Leafs best player. And his case wouldnt be very strong at all.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

There's one major elephant in the room with that demand:

Mikko Rantanen average PP TOI: 4:05

Mitch Marner average PP TOI: 2:35


Mikko Rantanen EV TOI: 16:44

Mitch Marner EV TOI: 15:53


Mikko Rantanen TOI/GP: 20:51

Mitch Marner TOI/GP: 19:49


Less PP time, less ES time, MORE PK time (minutes where you just don't produce). They will not receive the same contracts, you can clearly see from the different usage pointed out above that Marner has his offensive production artificially suppressed.

The PP time has some weight, but we get the least PPs in the NHL, so I except low numbers for all there................ But playing 1 more min a game really only works out to Rantanen playing 4 more games at 20min/game. It's not drastic.

 

[IPS]

But Marner is definitely not the Leafs best player. And his case wouldnt be very strong at all.

I agree.

His agent will have a much different view though, with a ton of numbers and a strong case to back it up.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Matthews out of his ELC - 5 years, 14.36% of the cap, 0.97PPG, 0.52 GPG.
Malkin out of his ELC - 5 years, 15.34% of the cap, 1.11PPG, 0.48 GPG.

The problem with Matthews is his closest comparable is Malkin? Nobody knows because there's never been a player like him before. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer since he's been in the league and his points are increasing too as he's getting older and better. As I've said before, the money isn't the problem as it's very deserving, the years hurt.

Nylander out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.7% of the cap, 0.73 PPG
Pastrnak out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.89% of the cap, 0.72 PPG

View attachment 228009

Yes, I believe Marner has ridden Tavares' coattails to the bank. Now, I do believe that they've helped each other and Marner is by far the best linemate Tavares as ever had, but also Tavares had by far his best isolated impact of his entire career. Let's see if Marner does the same if Tavares goes back to his usual form.

Marner's contract is so important because his value to the team is far less than both Tavares/Matthews and if we pay him 2-3M (10.5M-11.5M) too much that's the difference of us being able to afford a Johnsson-type player.

But Nylander wasn't riding Matthews coattails and Marner deserves only 1.5 million more than him? That doesn't make any sense.

 

[Morgs]

Make it seem like Matthews and Malkin are all close on ELC while completely tossing all context. Besides goals, Malkin is better than Matthews (or was at least) in just about everything else on the ice.

He is the real ELC totals..... stick the ppg where the sun don't shine because it's ridiculous in this instance.

Matthews:
111g - 94A = 205 points

Malkin:
115g - 189A = 304 points

Nothing to see here, just 101 more f**in points in only 3 years.... totally the same player.

And btw, Malkin went 1.29ppg ELC...... just for the record, to Matthews 0.97........... Only like +30% difference..... great comparable. Similar.

Matthews wanted more than McDavid............ more than freaking McDavid..... Should he not have won awards like your argument on Kane Vs. Marner? or does it become different.....just cause.

#1. Weird, for some reason I missed season 3, my apologies. So yes, he did have less PPG but he also got 0.98% less on the cap which equals out to almost another million difference. McDavid decided to go on a steal of a contract, that's really not Matthews problem.

#2. Matthews did win the ROY, and has lead the league in 5v5 goals (the most valuable counting stat) over the last three seasons.... while missing about 30 games compared to the four closest:

Rank	Player Name	Games Played	5v5 Goals
1	Auston Matthews	212	78
2	Connor McDavid	242	75
3	Jeff Skinner	243	73
4	Nikita Kucherov	236	69
5	Alexander Ovechkin	244	68

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

#3. His 5v5 ixGF (individual xGF) since he's been in the league is not only 2nd, but again he's played between 15 and 31 games less than any other player in the league. Matthews is the best individual creator of chances/game, so we know this isn't a fluke. It's actually going to get better when he gets better linemates (Nylander for a full season), and improves as he continues to go through his prime.

AM was the one guy we couldn't allow to get to an offer sheet, so even if we did overpay him (I don't believe we did), he was the one guy we could afford to do that to, especially when you're not getting Tavares/Marner/Nylander on discounts either.

 

[IPS]

The PP time has some weight, but we get the least PPs in the NHL, so I except low numbers for all there................ But playing 1 more min a game really only works out to Rantanen playing 4 more games at 20min/game. It's not drastic.

We do get the least PP's in the NHL. That's not the sole reason Marner's PP time is so low though, Babcock takes PP time from the 1st unit and gives it to the 2nd unit even though they're clearly inferior. That is textbook production suppression and no other team in the league does that.

And your math is a little off. Rantanen averages 1:30 more than Marner, he had 33 PP points compared to Marner's 21.

 

[hotpaws]

But Marner is definitely not the Leafs best player. And his case wouldnt be very strong at all.

based on what exactly other than some here foolishly believing if they knock Marner's play enough it'll suppress his salary demands ?

 

[Durrr]

I reiterate... if something like that happens I want a flat out criminal investigation into the contracts Dubas is giving out. At that point it is not mere incompetence. Something fishy is going on which warrants a criminal investigation.

Lol, I actually think you're serious.

Which is hilarious.

 

[Jozay]

I agree.

His agent will have a much different view though, with a ton of numbers and a strong case to back it up.

Yeah, but its hard to make a case that he's as good as a couple centers who are great goalscorers.

 

[Jozay]

based on what exactly other than some here foolishly believing if they knock Marner's play enough it'll suppress his salary demands ?

The most basic reason being that he's not a goal scoring center. Its simple as that.

 

[Morgs]

But Nylander wasn't riding Matthews coattails and Marner deserves only 1.5 million more than him? That doesn't make any sense.

If you look at Matthews stats with and without Nylander it's very clear they both play at their absolute best with each other. The same can be said about Tavares/Marner, but we don't have the sample size with Tavares away from Marner (on the Leafs) for us to know. What we do have is statistics like RAPM.Off_xGF which is considered the "play driving" statistic. The chart in the original quote shows both Tavares and Marner, and how Tavares is one of the best players in the league at driving play, and how Marner although very good is nowhere near.

Although it could be considered "riding his coattails" when it comes to Nylander as Matthews is a far superior player, there are statistics to back up that Nylander is elite at driving play (2nd on the team after Tavares this season), and that Matthews needs a playmaker of Nylander's ilk to be his most effective self.

 

[hotpaws]

The most basic reason being that he's not a goal scoring center. Its simple as that.

so we should eliminate eliminate a players overall impact on the game since our top 2 centers are more goal scorers than playmakers to try to justify MM making less than comparable's on his team

i guess this also means you and those who believe this also feel Mathews and Tavares are both better players than McDavid

 

[ShaneFalco]

Found this in another forum from a good poster:

I don't think that Marner is worth 11M+ anywhere outside of the alternate reality in Toronto where Auston Matthews is worth 11.634M on a 5 year deal.

If you compare him exclusively to Matthews...you can make a strong case that he deserves to be paid the same as him...and I suspect that that's exactly what him and his agent will do.

If you're willing to look beyond Toronto...any comparable examples suggest that for Matthews to get 11.634M, he would have had to commit to a 7 or 8 year deal...and that Mitch Marner (at best) deserves to be paid like Nikita Kucherov and/or Mark Stone (both of whom had previously signed bridge deals).

Matthews vs Marner...sure. I'll accept that Mitch is worthy of a similar cap hit...but those two compared to the rest of the league paints a much different picture.

To me, based on what they have actually done in their first 3 years...the ceiling for Matthews regardless of length should have been 10M, and Marner should be 9M.

The guys who got (cap adjusted) what these guys got (or will soon get) ...those guys won Cups, they won MVPs, they won scoring titles. To date, Matthews and Marner haven't been out of the first round and they have a Calder trophy between them. They are terrific young players, but to me, it's absolutely ludicrous that the rumoured numbers for Brayden Point are hovering around 8M while we're hoping to get Marner done for under 11.

It's not just ludicrous...it is quite possibly the cause of death for the best Leaf core group we've ever seen.

The whole situation just pisses me off, but the horse is already out of the barn...so you have no choice but to just pay Mitch whatever he demands, and do what you can with the pennies you have left.

I'm not trying to be a doomsdayer...but to me you're asking for disaster when you have an arrogant coach who demands and relies on having superior depth to compete, and he's coaching a group of young players who seem intent on sucking up every penny that would have allowed that depth to be possible.

It started with Willie, it got worse with Matthews, it'll get even worse with Marner if you end up making him the highest paid winger in league history, and looking forward it's going to be awfully tough to stop that ball from rolling down the hill.

Kapanen and Johnsson are absolutely worth more than 1/4 of what Marner is worth....and if Marner gets 11+, we can't possibly shit on those guys for thinking they are worth 3+.

 

[Jozay]

so we should eliminate eliminate a players overall impact on the game since our top 2 centers are more goal scorers than playmakers to try to justify MM making less than comparable's on his team

i guess this also means you and those who believe this also feel Mathews and Tavares are both better players than McDavid

The Connor McDavid who has scored 41 goals in back to back seasons?

Goal scoring centers have always been valued more than play making wingers.

 

[GoonieFace]

Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner should receive the same contracts essentially.

Should is the key word, not sure Dubas will figure that out.

 

[BlueBaron]

For Duby's sake I hope this gets done before the draft. I also hope it isn't a Bonehead contract.

 

[GoonieFace]

There's one major elephant in the room with that demand:

Mikko Rantanen average PP TOI: 4:05

Mitch Marner average PP TOI: 2:35


Mikko Rantanen EV TOI: 16:44

Mitch Marner EV TOI: 15:53


Mikko Rantanen TOI/GP: 20:51

Mitch Marner TOI/GP: 19:49


Less PP time, less ES time, MORE PK time (minutes where you just don't produce). They will not receive the same contracts, you can clearly see from the different usage pointed out above that Marner has his offensive production artificially suppressed.

The Leafs were also near the bottom if not at the bottom of PP's awarded this year, so those numbers are a little misleading. Maybe Babs was trying to do us a solid by suppressing these guys for contract purposes.

 

[hotpaws]

If you look at Matthews stats with and without Nylander it's very clear they both play at their absolute best with each other. The same can be said about Tavares/Marner, but we don't have the sample size with Tavares away from Marner (on the Leafs) for us to know. What we do have is statistics like RAPM.Off_xGF which is considered the "play driving" statistic. The chart in the original quote shows both Tavares and Marner, and how Tavares is one of the best players in the league at driving play, and how Marner although very good is nowhere near.

and when you watch the game it's easy to see than MM is the one carrying the puck up the ice the vast majority of the time and creating the majority of the plays while also buzzing all over the ice and being in a better defensive position since he's the one above the puck in the o-zone in position to support the D

the majority of these stats mean little by themselves but yet people love to stat mine to find anything that may help there argument

the funniest thing will be how many of the people trying to knock what he may be asking for will be doing a 180 and defending whatever he signs for as fair market value just like they did when the Nylander/Mathews contracts were announced

 

[Menzinger]

The offersheet threat can easily come in at $10.5M , just shy of the four 1st round pick compensation.



You can dream all you want but there's not a reason in the world why Marner needs to make concessions to the Leafs when Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares didn't.

They'll take this to July 1st and gain leverage to push the ask to $10+ million..

For the offersheet to be credible leverage the player has to be willing to sign the team and be prepared to leave.

A guy like Matthew's with zero ties to the city (other than starting his career here) was a much greater risk of using July 1st as leverage. Marner has a lot less credibility here

 

[Menzinger]

If I’m Buffalo and July 1st is here, I’m heavily offer sheeting Marner then Point depending.
I would even care about the 4 1sts, add Eichel/Marner/Point/Dahlin or put your rivals deeper in cap.

You would, but professional GMs dont seem to think about offersheets the same way. They're clearly considered to be fairly taboo

 

[Morgs]

and when you watch the game it's easy to see than MM is the one carrying the puck up the ice the vast majority of the time and creating the majority of the plays while also buzzing all over the ice and being in a better defensive position since he's the one above the puck in the o-zone in position to support the D

the majority of these stats mean little by themselves but yet people love to stat mine to find anything that may help there argument

the funniest thing will be how many of the people trying to knock what he may be asking for will be doing a 180 and defending whatever he signs for as fair market value just like they did when the Nylander/Mathews contracts were announced

But that's the thing. The data takes out the bias of eye test. We can ignore new statistics as much as possible, but all it is is more information for us to evaluate players.

I guarantee I will not say he signs for market value unless he's paid what is, in my opinion market value.

 

[Menzinger]

Matthews out of his ELC - 5 years, 14.36% of the cap, 0.97PPG, 0.52 GPG.
Malkin out of his ELC - 5 years, 15.34% of the cap, 1.11PPG, 0.48 GPG.

The problem with Matthews is his closest comparable is Malkin? Nobody knows because there's never been a player like him before. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer since he's been in the league and his points are increasing too as he's getting older and better. As I've said before, the money isn't the problem as it's very deserving, the years hurt.

Nylander out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.7% of the cap, 0.73 PPG
Pastrnak out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.89% of the cap, 0.72 PPG

View attachment 228009

Yes, I believe Marner has ridden Tavares' coattails to the bank. Now, I do believe that they've helped each other and Marner is by far the best linemate Tavares as ever had, but also Tavares had by far his best isolated impact of his entire career. Let's see if Marner does the same if Tavares goes back to his usual form.

Marner's contract is so important because his value to the team is far less than both Tavares/Matthews and if we pay him 2-3M (10.5M-11.5M) too much that's the difference of us being able to afford a Johnsson-type player.

The Leafs and their fans are incredibly privileged to be able to have a talent like Marner on the team, but folks try need to give their head a shake when it comes to whose the more impactful player on that line is (hint he plays centre)...

They cant be reckless with what they pay Marner just because hes a fan favorite to sl.e

 

[hotpaws]

The Connor McDavid who has scored 41 goals in back to back seasons?

Goal scoring centers have always been valued more than play making wingers.

Tavares out scored him this year and AM's gpp were higher so that must mean you believe they were both better than McD

also outside of a couple big goal scoring years Crosby was much more a playmaker and all around dominate player than a goal scoring center so i guess he too was over rated considering most believed he was the games best player before CM came along