Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Menzinger]

Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner should receive the same contracts essentially.

Imo Rantanen has a stronger case for more money.

 

[Notsince67]

Imo Rantanen has a stronger case for more money.

Of course you do. You are wrong on everything else so why not this.

 

[hotpaws]

But that's the thing. The data takes out the bias of eye test. We can ignore new statistics as much as possible, but all it is is more information for us to evaluate players.

I guarantee I will not say he signs for market value unless he's paid what is, in my opinion market value.

i don't ignore the data/new statistics i simple question their validity and most of the new stats coming out are flawed and pretty much useless and just get in the way of making proper assessments , not to mention these stats are compiled by people who may have biases or at the very least there interpretation on how they should be collected flawed

i'll give you an example , i see a lot of people like to use high danger shot attempts as a way to determine which team outplayed the other but they ignore this stat doesn't take into account whether the shot attempt was under duress since they were being checked by one player while another was directly in front of him to alter/block the attempt or it was a clean look with plenty of time and space to get a quality sot off

when a new stat comes out people should first question whether it's useful instead of simply accepting it as valuable information and then trying to prove it's value

and you may not be among those who defend the deal regardless of what it may be but you know a large number will just like they have with Willie and Mathews

 

[Menzinger]

Of course you do. You are wrong on everything else so why not this.

The better goal scorer and more points over the last two seasons.

 

[Jozay]

Tavares out scored him this year and AM's gpp were higher so that must mean you believe they were both better than McD

also outside of a couple big goal scoring years Crosby was much more a playmaker and all around dominate player than a goal scoring center so i guess he too was over rated considering most believed he was the games best player before CM came along

No I dont believe that because McDavid while being an elite playmaker is also an elite goal scorer.

Crosby has 9 years where he has passed 30 goals. Also had a year of 24 goals in 53 games. Lets not act like Crosby isnt a damn good goal scorer too.

 

[Menzinger]

It will be curious if they opt to go with short bridge deal, how folks will react around here. Could be worth it to gget through the Marleau cap crunch next season

 

[DarkKnight]

I can praise both, and I have many times. I attempt to keep them away from each other because bringing one down to raise the other makes no sense as they're both Leafs. I've had to compare them 1000 times, and defend one so i obviously come off as bias.

One deserves to be defended from criticism that has no place though. The other deserves to be objectively criticized as he's attempting to get far too much money from us on a contract and has arguably the most toxic individual fanbase in NA sports. It amazes me how people WANT him to make 10-11+ and are like "fight for what you deserve mitchy" and Matthews/Nylander are criminals for getting market price lol.

I think some people are just resigned to an overpayment after what Nylander and Matthews extracted. What's fair seems an outdated argument. I don't think Marner is worth what has been reported on face value, no way. When I look at the Leafs in isolation, his agent will have a strong argument.

I think Marner is a 9 mil player on a longer term deal. That isn't going to happen, after the other two it's hard to jump up and down over his "demands". When in Rome, or in this case Dubeyland. High dollars, low term, come and get it!

Again resigned. The blame lies in our front office not Marner's camp.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

and when you watch the game it's easy to see than MM is the one carrying the puck up the ice the vast majority of the time and creating the majority of the plays while also buzzing all over the ice and being in a better defensive position since he's the one above the puck in the o-zone in position to support the D

I agree with the idea that only centers can really drive the play. Marner drives the play period. Whether he does this as a winger or center doesn't matter.

Anyhow, I've stopped trying to predict MM's new salary. We'll find out soon enough and nothing anybody says here will make a difference anyhow.

 

[hotpaws]

For the offersheet to be credible leverage the player has to be willing to sign the team and be prepared to leave.

A guy like Matthew's with zero ties to the city (other than starting his career here) was a much greater risk of using July 1st as leverage. Marner has a lot less credibility here

or he knows like in MM's situation there's almost no chance it won't be matched

i don't think anyone tries to sign him to an o/s since they probably know we'll match but if they do the one i'm most worried about is if a team signs him to a 10.5m x 4yr deal which takes him straight to free agency and only returns two 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd

 

[DarkKnight]

If you're Marner's agent, you're looking at his PP time from last season and using it as a strong negotiation point. Only 2 forwards in the league were producing better than him in the PP at a better per minute rate: Hall and Wheeler. They both received vastly more PP time than Marner too. His agent will not be treating last season as a 69 point season, he will demand adjustments to a more real number.

And from this year, he can argue much the same thing. He will be arguing why his client was 120th in the league in PP TOI when he proved to be one of the best PP players in the league last year. So guess what, his 94 point season will likely be treated as a 100+ point season, yet again due to artificially suppressed production. Anyone thinking Marner will get less than $10M is mental.

And then he brings up the PK...

 

[hotpaws]

No I dont believe that because McDavid while being an elite playmaker is also an elite goal scorer.

Crosby has 9 years where he has passed 30 goals. Also had a year of 24 goals in 53 games. Lets not act like Crosby isnt a damn good goal scorer too.

good goal scorer yes but not elite other than for a couple of years and since that's how you said a players value should be defined then shouldn't you stay consistent in how you evaluate players ?

 

[Menzinger]

or he knows like in MM's situation there's almost no chance it won't be matched

i don't think anyone tries to sign him to an o/s since they probably know we'll match but if they do the one i'm most worried about is if a team signs him to a 10.5m x 4yr deal which takes him straight to free agency and only returns two 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd

Eh, I'd agree that in theory it could be a risk. But at the same time, this type of thing is a lot more common among message board banter than how GMs actually behave in the offseason.

 

[GoonieFace]

And then he brings up the PK...

Subban?

 

[biotk]

or he knows like in MM's situation there's almost no chance it won't be matched

i don't think anyone tries to sign him to an o/s since they probably know we'll match but if they do the one i'm most worried about is if a team signs him to a 10.5m x 4yr deal which takes him straight to free agency and only returns two 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd

If he signs for that amount the team should match and then trade him.

 

[Notsince67]

The better goal scorer and more points over the last two seasons.

Yeah. So Matthews is the better goal scorer and Marner the better in points over 2 seasons. Is it a tie. You bend over backwards to diminish Marner because you are but hurt over Nylander. Really sad

 

[Jozay]

good goal scorer yes but not elite other than for a couple of years and since that's how you said a players value should be defined then shouldn't you stay consistent in how you evaluate players ?

Those players are much more even in their abilities than Marner, who is a great player maker but is not close to as good of a goal scorer as those other two.

Its really simple, stop trying to diminish how good Crosby and McDavid are at scoring goals.

 

[hotpaws]

Eh, I'd agree that in theory it could be a risk. But at the same time, this type of thing is a lot more common among message board banter than how GMs actually behave in the offseason.

offer sheets aren't common since teams know it'll be matched that's why i'm not too worried about MM , Kap and Johnson on the other hand i'd easily look to offer sheet if i was looking for a winger since it'll only cost a 2nd and it would be difficult for us to match and fit in say 4m per for them this year

 

[hotpaws]

If he signs for that amount the team should match and then trade him.

i'm pretty sure if you match you can't trade the player for a year

 

[Leafsman]

The offersheet threat can easily come in at $10.5M , just shy of the four 1st round pick compensation.



You can dream all you want but there's not a reason in the world why Marner needs to make concessions to the Leafs when Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares didn't.

They'll take this to July 1st and gain leverage to push the ask to $10+ million..

Maybe someone can clarify this but is it not based on a 5 yr contract? I thought I heard if it is over a 5 year contract then it is averaged out differently. So a 6-yr $10.5M contract would still be 4x1sts?

 

[Mr Hockey]

These media guys are still pushing this offer sheet stuff, eh... I bet not a single player gets an offer sheet this summer

 

[hotpaws]

Those players are much more even in their abilities than Marner, who is a great player maker but is not close to as good of a goal scorer as those other two.

Its really simple, stop trying to diminish how good Crosby and McDavid are at scoring goals.

i'm the one trying to diminish how good players are ? lol

you're trying to fit a players worth into just one category then when it's pointed out to you how absurd that is you can't admit your wrong and instead just double down

as others and i have already said , nothing we post here will have any influence on the salary MM gets so trying to diminish him as a player as you're trying to do will have zero effect on negotiations

and as a Leaf fan i'd love him to take a discount just like i would have loved for Willie to take 6m per and AM to take 9.5m at that term and for JT to have signed for the same cap hit Stamkos did but i;m not going come on here to to spin non sense believing i can diminish his demands

 

[Babcocks Marner]

#1. Weird, for some reason I missed season 3, my apologies. So yes, he did have less PPG but he also got 0.98% less on the cap which equals out to almost another million difference. McDavid decided to go on a steal of a contract, that's really not Matthews problem.

#2. Matthews did win the ROY, and has lead the league in 5v5 goals (the most valuable counting stat) over the last three seasons.... while missing about 30 games compared to the four closest:

Rank	Player Name	Games Played	5v5 Goals
1	Auston Matthews	212	78
2	Connor McDavid	242	75
3	Jeff Skinner	243	73
4	Nikita Kucherov	236	69
5	Alexander Ovechkin	244	68

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

#3. His 5v5 ixGF (individual xGF) since he's been in the league is not only 2nd, but again he's played between 15 and 31 games less than any other player in the league. Matthews is the best individual creator of chances/game, so we know this isn't a fluke. It's actually going to get better when he gets better linemates (Nylander for a full season), and improves as he continues to go through his prime.

AM was the one guy we couldn't allow to get to an offer sheet, so even if we did overpay him (I don't believe we did), he was the one guy we could afford to do that to, especially when you're not getting Tavares/Marner/Nylander on discounts either.

Everyone and their Mother knows Matthews is amazing. On no planet would any sane person dispute that.

While 5v5 goals are nice, very nice.... and a great stat, once again, its a slim part of the pie and total equation.

Matthews:
111g - 94A = 205 points (212 GP)

McDavid:
87g - 169A = 256 points (209 GP)

3 less games, 51 more total points, +25% production

I do not feel like Matthews deserves more than McDavid for minus 25% production. The 24 more goals are nice, but with context, I am taking McDavid all day long.

Anyways, your whole use of Malkin should tell you that Matthews is over paid. You tried to use Malkin as a good comparable and the math was out to lunch, and now you see he is not a good comparable...... but Matthews still getting Malkin money.

 

[biotk]

i'm pretty sure if you match you can't trade the player for a year

Trade him in a year. If the Leafs say this is the best we can do in order to keep a competitive team on the ice and a player decides to sign an offer sheet then you either take the picks or you match and trade them as soon as you can. I would prefer the Leafs give Marner their final offer before the end of May and if he doesn't accept it then have him traded by the draft. As I have said, if they can get a return that includes someone like Manson, a good prospect and a good draft pick then I think Toronto is better off taking it unless Marner is willing to sign for 9M. The cap space that would be available with such a trade would allow them to keep Kapanen and Johnsson as well.

 

[Mr Hockey]

IMO, Marner would not even sign an offer sheet or even listen to offers while he is a Leaf, he will force some kind of deal out of the Leafs.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

The Leafs and their fans are incredibly privileged to be able to have a talent like Marner on the team, but folks try need to give their head a shake when it comes to whose the more impactful player on that line is (hint he plays centre)...

They cant be reckless with what they pay Marner just because hes a fan favorite to sl.e

JT is a better goal scorer than Kadri and Bozak? You don't say.

Funny he still puts up higher numbers with Kadri than Willy does with Matthews...... wtf does that say? Give me a break. What is the bitterness with the willy fan club? is it because Marner turned out better or something?
Can't even have a normal discussion anymore.