Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[BlueForever75]

If those teams are smart,they had better get those guys signed before Marner does. Or they risk having to possibly pay more than Marner gets.Agents for Point,Rantanen ,Aho can all argue their player is better!

Point, Rantanen and Aho are all comparable players to Marner. Having them sign for significantly lower then Marner's asking price is a win for Dubas. My thinking is that those teams will sign their players for lower because of what their top players already make on their teams. Hence the reason Marner will be signed for less then everyone thinks. I cannot see either of the players mentioned making more then 10 million a season annually. Closer to 8.5-9 maybe but not 10 million.

 

[GoonieFace]

My prediction:

Point - 8yrs/$8mil/year
Rantanen - 8yrs/$8mil/year

Marner - 5yrs/$10.75mil/year

Dubas gets sacked again.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

the cap is fine and without it you wind up like the MLB where the richest teams just outspend everyone and the rest of the league ends up just being there feeder system which would be great as a Leaf fan but sucks as a Jay fan and this would kill a large number of markets in the league since Hockey unlike Baseball isn't a main sport in the U.S.

drafting and developing well is important but there's also a fair amount of luck involved , had we not won the lottery we wouldn't have Mathews and had the Marner draft not been as deep as it was Mitch goes a spot or two higher and we end up missing out on him

and at the end of the day if your a sports fan you want winning to be more than just about how much money you can spend

To each his own. It is why I can't stand when people keep saying hockey is in the entertainment business. and I say how much entertainment can we afford? Because there is a strict limit on how much entertainment we are entitled to receive each year.
And the owners of profitable teams shift revenues from hockey bucket to non-hockey bucket to make even more money. Why do you think NHL does not want owners to own a hockey and a basketball team?
There are so many bad behaviors coming from a strict CAP. Maybe the 10 really weak teams should be in the AHL? Those markets have AHL limits so why do they get NHL privileges?

 

[Morgs]

I mean. Marner is a third year pro, you're acting like natural progression isn't expected. His production last year wasn't exactly out of nowhere, unless of course you ignore the second half and playoffs of his SECOND year, nevermind his excellent ROOKIE year. Was Marner riding Kadri's coat tails last year second half? How exactly does one isolate a player on a line, did it ever dawn on you that the focus on Marner might just free up JT to an extent he's never enjoyed in his career? Isn't that a fair read. And again, when you start treating Nylander in a similar fashion perhaps your criticism of Marner won't just look the biased selectivism currently on display now.

Did JT help Marner. Yep. Did Marner help JT. Yep. Does Bergeron help Marchand?

I can praise both, and I have many times. I attempt to keep them away from each other because bringing one down to raise the other makes no sense as they're both Leafs. I've had to compare them 1000 times, and defend one so i obviously come off as bias.

One deserves to be defended from criticism that has no place though. The other deserves to be objectively criticized as he's attempting to get far too much money from us on a contract and has arguably the most toxic individual fanbase in NA sports. It amazes me how people WANT him to make 10-11+ and are like "fight for what you deserve mitchy" and Matthews/Nylander are criminals for getting market price lol.

 

[Mess]

The framework might have been discussed but its still likely by the time the deal is signed that next year Marner is the highest paid (AAV) winger in the NHL for the 2019-20 season.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

My prediction:

Point - 8yrs/$8mil/year
Rantanen - 8yrs/$8mil/year

Marner - 5yrs/$10.75mil/year

Dubas gets sacked again.

If Point wanted to take Tampa's 8M offer then he would have done so already. Clearly he has rejected it. No harm in waiting past July 1st for him. He is in no rush. It makes sense for him to see Marner's deal first. He is Tampa's best or 2nd best player. He is better than Marner. So if Marner gets 10.5M then his 12M case gets much stronger. I don't think he will get what he wants but the waiting game is his best strategy now. Maybe someone like Rangers who have the picks give him his 12M to lead the rebuild? and they still have a couple more 1st rounders too.

 

[Auston Powers]

I mean. Marner is a third year pro, you're acting like natural progression isn't expected. His production last year wasn't exactly out of nowhere, unless of course you ignore the second half and playoffs of his SECOND year, nevermind his excellent ROOKIE year. Was Marner riding Kadri's coat tails last year second half? How exactly does one isolate a player on a line, did it ever dawn on you that the focus on Marner might just free up JT to an extent he's never enjoyed in his career? Isn't that a fair read. And again, when you start treating Nylander in a similar fashion perhaps your criticism of Marner won't just look the biased selectivism currently on display now.

Did JT help Marner. Yep. Did Marner help JT. Yep. Does Bergeron help Marchand?

And Marchand makes $6,125,000 for the next 6 years. Remember Marchand saying he hopes Mitch gets McDavid money?

 

[Notsince67]

My opinion is that he's our fifth best player, behind Tavares, Matthews, Andersen and Reilly... not posted in any order.

Good lord.

 

[hotpaws]

To each his own. It is why I can't stand when people keep saying hockey is in the entertainment business. and I say how much entertainment can we afford? Because there is a strict limit on how much entertainment we are entitled to receive each year.
And the owners of profitable teams shift revenues from hockey bucket to non-hockey bucket to make even more money. Why do you think NHL does not want owners to own a hockey and a basketball team?
There are so many bad behaviors coming from a strict CAP. Maybe the 10 really weak teams should be in the AHL? Those markets have AHL limits so why do they get NHL privileges?

the Leafs and other rich teams have many advantages since there is no cap on off ice expenditures which still tilts the field in our favor even with a hard cap

the NFL is pretty much the gold standard of pro sports and a hard cap allows tiny markets like Green Bay to compete with huge market/revenue teams like New York and Dallas which makes the entire league much more entertaining and healthy

winning should mean something , it should come from outperforming similar competition and not from a small handful of rich teams beating up on inferior competition which would make the regular season meaningless and only the 2nd rd and on providing entertainment

also after a while even rich market fans would start to lose interest after the novelty of easily being a top team year after year against limited competition becomes predictable and boring

 

[JT AM da real deal]

the Leafs and other rich teams have many advantages since there is no cap on off ice expenditures which still tilts the field in our favor even with a hard cap

the NFL is pretty much the gold standard of pro sports and a hard cap allows tiny markets like Green Bay to compete with huge market/revenue teams like New York and Dallas which makes the entire league much more entertaining and healthy

winning should mean something , it should come from outperforming similar competition and not from a small handful of rich teams beating up on inferior competition which would make the regular season meaningless and only the 2nd rd and on providing entertainment

also after a while even rich market fans would start to lose interest after the novelty of easily being a top team year after year against limited competition becomes predictable and boring

then set up 2 tiers ... and if you win tier 2 then you move up with big boys the following season ... and bad tier 1 teams move down to tier 2 ... but to artificially make the top league reach parity just limits the quality of the product on the ice to an inferior level

 

[IPS]

Per Shanny during his tour after signing the new contract: when asked about Marner’s new deal, Shanahan referenced Pridham as being a highly competent numbers guy.
My point: while many here praise or condemn Dubas for the contracts the Leafs sign, and he is ultimately responsible, Shanahan’s comment leads me to believe that the numbers are Pridham’s responsibility. He’s the capologist. I’m sure management collaborates, but we may be underestimating the Pridham ‘effect’.

You need a proficient capologist when they're determining numbers for players who've had their offensive numbers purposely suppressed. Most on this board just do not understand this and probably never will. It's just easier to spazz out on Dubas, which is the route most smaller-minded folks go.

 

[Mr Hockey]

My opinion is that he's our fifth best player, behind Tavares, Matthews, Andersen and Reilly... not posted in any order.

Andersen? if he chokes one more time in the playoffs, I would be looking for another goalie next summer.

 

[Budsfan]

The framework might have been discussed but its still likely by the time the deal is signed that next year Marner is the highest paid (AAV) winger in the NHL for the 2019-20 season.

I think he will be signed before he becomes a restrictive F/A, or RFA so no offers can be given by other teams, that might even be higher than what we offer.

 

[hotpaws]

then set up 2 tiers ... and if you win tier 2 then you move up with big boys the following season ... and bad tier 1 teams move down to tier 2 ... but to artificially make the top league reach parity just limits the quality of the product on the ice to an inferior level

or why not just continue to follow the most successful sport in North America which is the NFL and continue to grow the sport league wide like they have ?

eliminating the hard cap and going to a 2 tier league in a sport which is well down the list of sports in the US would kill off at least a third if not half the franchises and reduce the NHL to a fringe sport in the US and a glorified CFL but hey at least we would have a much easier path to win the cup even though few people would give a damn

i also don't understand this mentality that if we don't have a huge advantage instead of a just small one then we're being treated unfairly because we're a large revenue team , maybe it comes from the x-box crowd who believe stacking there team is entertainment and the way real life should be

 

[Throw More Waffles]

My prediction:

Point - 8yrs/$8mil/year
Rantanen - 8yrs/$8mil/year

Marner - 5yrs/$10.75mil/year

Dubas gets sacked again.

I reiterate... if something like that happens I want a flat out criminal investigation into the contracts Dubas is giving out. At that point it is not mere incompetence. Something fishy is going on which warrants a criminal investigation.

 

[IPS]

If you're Marner's agent, you're looking at his PP time from last season and using it as a strong negotiation point. Only 2 forwards in the league were producing better than him in the PP at a better per minute rate: Hall and Wheeler. They both received vastly more PP time than Marner too. His agent will not be treating last season as a 69 point season, he will demand adjustments to a more real number.

And from this year, he can argue much the same thing. He will be arguing why his client was 120th in the league in PP TOI when he proved to be one of the best PP players in the league last year. So guess what, his 94 point season will likely be treated as a 100+ point season, yet again due to artificially suppressed production. Anyone thinking Marner will get less than $10M is mental.

 

[Cor]

CJ said shortly after the series against Boston ended, that in a few weeks, Dubas would sit down with Marner and his camp and show the different chart breakdowns of "this is how much we can pay you" and sort of put forward a this is the best offer we can do.

I kinda wonder if that is what the meeting involving Shanny the other day was.

 

[hotpaws]

Per Shanny during his tour after signing the new contract: when asked about Marner’s new deal, Shanahan referenced Pridham as being a highly competent numbers guy.
My point: while many here praise or condemn Dubas for the contracts the Leafs sign, and he is ultimately responsible, Shanahan’s comment leads me to believe that the numbers are Pridham’s responsibility. He’s the capologist. I’m sure management collaborates, but we may be underestimating the Pridham ‘effect’.

Pridham's job isn't to negotiate contracts , it's to provide information along with our huge analytics team to the GM who's responsibility it is to negotiate the deal , shifting partial blame from Dubas to Pridham who he retained and promoted is absurd .

if this is what Shanny is trying to do so he can try to scapegoat Pridham then he's doing it to protect the Dube and himself since he's the one who promoted Dubas

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Matthews out of his ELC - 5 years, 14.36% of the cap, 0.97PPG, 0.52 GPG.
Malkin out of his ELC - 5 years, 15.34% of the cap, 1.11PPG, 0.48 GPG.

The problem with Matthews is his closest comparable is Malkin? Nobody knows because there's never been a player like him before. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer since he's been in the league and his points are increasing too as he's getting older and better. As I've said before, the money isn't the problem as it's very deserving, the years hurt.

Nylander out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.7% of the cap, 0.73 PPG
Pastrnak out of his ELC - 6 years, 8.89% of the cap, 0.72 PPG

View attachment 228009

Yes, I believe Marner has ridden Tavares' coattails to the bank. Now, I do believe that they've helped each other and Marner is by far the best linemate Tavares as ever had, but also Tavares had by far his best isolated impact of his entire career. Let's see if Marner does the same if Tavares goes back to his usual form.

Marner's contract is so important because his value to the team is far less than both Tavares/Matthews and if we pay him 2-3M (10.5M-11.5M) too much that's the difference of us being able to afford a Johnsson-type player.

Make it seem like Matthews and Malkin are all close on ELC while completely tossing all context. Besides goals, Malkin is better than Matthews (or was at least) in just about everything else on the ice.

He is the real ELC totals..... stick the ppg where the sun don't shine because it's ridiculous in this instance.

Matthews:
111g - 94A = 205 points

Malkin:
115g - 189A = 304 points

Nothing to see here, just 101 more f**in points in only 3 years.... totally the same player.

And btw, Malkin went 1.29ppg ELC...... just for the record, to Matthews 0.97........... Only like +30% difference..... great comparable. Similar.

Matthews wanted more than McDavid............ more than freaking McDavid..... Should he not have won awards like your argument on Kane Vs. Marner? or does it become different.....just cause.

 

[Cor]

Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner should receive the same contracts essentially.

 

[paulhiggins]

I reiterate... if something like that happens I want a flat out criminal investigation into the contracts Dubas is giving out. At that point it is not mere incompetence. Something fishy is going on which warrants a criminal investigation.

Next thing you know we'll have all our cap tied up in 6 or 7 players and no money to fill the roster. At least Babs wouldn't be able to mess up any line changes because there wouldn't be any spares.

 

[Cor]

I want this done as soon as possible.

I am so sick and tired of the speculation, the arguing, the bitching about contracts. The past year has been awful.

The salary cap, without non-guaranteed deals, or a luxury cap, or contract restructuring is a killer. The NHL is the only league who does it.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

come on just get it done. be nice knowing he's not going to take an offersheet

 

[IPS]

Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner should receive the same contracts essentially.

There's one major elephant in the room with that demand:

Mikko Rantanen average PP TOI: 4:05

Mitch Marner average PP TOI: 2:35


Mikko Rantanen EV TOI: 16:44

Mitch Marner EV TOI: 15:53


Mikko Rantanen TOI/GP: 20:51

Mitch Marner TOI/GP: 19:49


Less PP time, less ES time, MORE PK time (minutes where you just don't produce). They will not receive the same contracts, you can clearly see from the different usage pointed out above that Marner has his offensive production artificially suppressed.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner should receive the same contracts essentially.

Yea, they should 100%...... but, the million dollar question..... Do you think they are going to be paid the same?

Most of us can smell the over payment coming a mile away.