Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[JT AM da real deal]

The Leafs are the needle for the NHL. They make by far the most cash flow when hockey and non-hockey revenues are combined. They can afford to push the bar up for everyone else. And we may go over the CAP. And if we do it will be interesting to see how the NHL responds. They have to be careful because the golden goose lays her eggs for rest of league. And losing a couple roster spots is nothing because of IR and moving guys around not a big deal. It will be a very interesting summer.

 

[hotpaws]

Lol didn't say that. Read the words on the screen.

If you don't think one of those is likely, it's incredibly hard to justify Matthews being more than .6-1 overpaid over 5 years vs a 12.5x8 valuation.

you can toss around numbers all day long but a 100m cap give or take a few mil isn't unlikely 5 yrs from now if you base the increases at 3 to 5% per year at the the forecasted 83m cap for this upcoming year

there's no player in the game close to McD imo and anyone trying to justify AM getting under 1m less with 3 yrs less term is f***ing insane

AM's cap hit should have been for 8yrs which is still paying him a premium for what he's accomplished so far and he only gets that because Buffalo overpaid Eichel and salaries for top end kids have risen .

 

[hotpaws]

The Leafs are the needle for the NHL. They make by far the most cash flow when hockey and non-hockey revenues are combined. They can afford to push the bar up for everyone else. And we may go over the CAP. And if we do it will be interesting to see how the NHL responds. They have to be careful because the golden goose lays her eggs for rest of league. And losing a couple roster spots is nothing because of IR and moving guys around not a big deal. It will be a very interesting summer.

you have to be cap compliant by the start of the season , it's not an option

 

[Mess]

Lol didn't say that. Read the words on the screen.

If you don't think one of those is likely, it's incredibly hard to justify Matthews being more than .6-1 overpaid over 5 years vs a 12.5x8 valuation.

Here is the justification. It was reported that Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year @$9 mil bridge deal, which suggests that they placed a $9 mil per season price tag on Auston's RFA years.

So if you reverse engineer that current Matthews contact of 5 years using $9 mil as the price point for 4 X RFA years then that makes his current 5 year (4 X RFA + 1 UFA) based on $58.17 mil and $11.634 mil AAV as Years #1 thru #5;

$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil +$ 22.17 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

Even if you use his current $11.634 mil as his 4th year instead of the $9 mil he offered it looks like this;

$9 mil + $9mil + $9 mil + $11.634 + $19.534 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

That is the price tag attached to the single UFA year Leafs purchased from Matthews.

Now sadly for Leaf Nation, Marner his agent Darren Ferris and his Father Paul are going to use that same contact that Matthews just got to their own advantage asking/demanding similar, where Marner is going to want a $10-11 mil AAV contract for 5-6 years. Who knows perhaps they offer the same $9 mil x 3 year bridge deal to start negotiations in order to extract those eye popping UFA year purchases.

PS. This is why McDavid and Eichel got full max 8 year deals not 5 years, because its the UFA years where the real money lies. Eichel needed to surrender 4 X UFA years to get $10 mil AAV and with Matthews having similar NHL PPG points rate (.96 vs .97 in years 2016-2019) he needed to surrender only 1 year to get $11.634 AAV.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

you have to be cap compliant by the start of the season , it's not an option

We will see. I can't see the league slapping Leafs around. Even Bettman knows better. He certainly is not going to stop Leafs from playing games. It only hurts the league.

 

[The CyNick]

All I'm saying and have said the whole time is you are evaluating a contract too early.

You have no clue what is going to happen the next 5 years, neither do I or anyone.

The people who have the best idea of what is going to happen are the same people who signed him to the contract. The Leafs literally have a "capologist" to know these things. What are your credentials compared to his ?

I have been following hockey and sports media for decades.

You don't need a PHD to be a capologist. It's just someone who understands the fine details of the cap. But that's not what this is about. This is about negotiation, poor negotiation.

You're grasping onto this idea that we have no idea what will happen in the future. While I don't know with 100% certainty what the cap will be in five years, I can take five minutes and do a quick analysis to see where I project the cap to be based on expected HRR. It won't be 100% accurate, but I bet it's close. Again, I'll challenge you to share what you think the cap will look like in 5 years?

If you go back to 2013 the cap has gone up on average 5% per year. Is there any reason to think that won't continue? Even at that rate Matthews is signing a deal just under $16M per year based on cap percentage. That means you think TV revenues will be flat. Which there is less than 1% chance of happening based on the current TV landscape.

The guys who work for the Leafs have no better knowledge of what the cap will look like in five years than I do. They wouldn't know what NBC, DAZN, ESPN, and several others will offer the NHL for US TV rights. But we all can make an educated estimate. Any estimate you make should tell you the next deal will be more than $200M per year. It's just a matter of how much it will go up. You look at recent contacts for other sports and then draw a relative comparison to the value of the NHL deal.

The only way this deal works out for the Leafs is if Matthews ends up being a career 60 point guy, then at least we'll only have paid him like a 115pt guy for five seasons vs eight.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Here is the justification. It was reported that Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year @$9 mil bridge deal, which suggests that they placed a $9 mil per season price tag on Auston's RFA years.

So if you reverse engineer that current Matthews contact of 5 years using $9 mil as the price point for 4 X RFA years then that makes his current 5 year (4 X RFA + 1 UFA) based on $58.17 mil and $11.634 mil AAV as Years #1 thru #5;

$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil +$ 22.17 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

Even if you use his current $11.634 mil as his 4th year instead of the $9 mil he offered it looks like this;

$9 mil + $9mil + $9 mil + $11.634 + $19.534 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

That is the price tag attached to the single UFA year Leafs purchased from Matthews.

Now sadly for Leaf Nation, Marner his agent Darren Ferris and his Father Paul are going to use that same contact that Matthews just got to their own advantage asking/demanding similar, where Marner is going to want a $10-11 mil AAV contract for 5-6 years. Who knows perhaps they offer the same $9 mil x 3 year bridge deal to start negotiations in order to extract those eye popping UFA year purchases.

PS. This is why McDavid and Eichel got full max 8 year deals not 5 years, because its the UFA years where the real money lies. Eichel needed to surrender 4 X UFA years to get $10 mil AAV and with Matthews having similar NHL PPG points rate (.96 vs .97 in years 2016-2019) he needed to surrender only 1 year to get $11.634 AAV.

You say that Matthews offered a 9mil x 3 yr bridge but have no "reports" of what the other players you compare to offered on bridge deal. Your not even comparing anything. What if Eichel or McDavid offered 6mil x 3 yr bridge (You purposely don't even add that).

Another nit picked stat. Really doesn't surprise me at all. Really easy to make "stats" look good when you nit pick which ones to use over which period.

Why not use his actual PPG over his career (because its 0.9, doesn't push your point)

Why not use his ELC PPG (becasue its 0.85, doesn't follow your point)

 

[The CyNick]

It's important to understand that each side will present numbers that suit their interests. If you are an agent representing Marner, it's simple, you say we'll take the same deal you just gave out to Matthews. Same team its a no brainer. The Leafs will counter with other comparisons from around the league, but it's tough to stand on that argument when you just gave Matthews more money on an 8 year basis than McDavid. And you've also got JT sitting there at $11M per that you signed a year ago. Hard to tell the guy who drives that line he's worth 2M less.

If you're Brayden Point, you won't compare to Kuch, you will compare to Matthews. Tampa will counter with we have an internal cap which Kuch is at the ceiling of.

In all cases it just comes down to a game of chicken and who is willing to give in. Is it more important to Marner to play for the Leafs then to maximize his pay. Is it worth risking Marner to an offer sheet over a couple million per if you're the Leafs?

The problem for the Leafs is our current chief negotiator has shown no backbone, so everyone thinks they can steal on him. That's why having an experienced negotiator in this time was so critical. Our first time President thought it was best to put in a guy who's biggest deal he ever signed as a GM was a standard OHL contact. And then maybe even worse, the Board in their infinite wisdom gave the guy who made that call a six year extension. 40 Bay St can be an odd place at times.

 

[CDN24]

We will see. I can't see the league slapping Leafs around. Even Bettman knows better. He certainly is not going to stop Leafs from playing games. It only hurts the league.

He, Bettman, shut down the league for a year to get a salary cap. You think he is going to throw that Salary Cap away because the richest team can't manage their salary cap?

 

[18leafsfan18]

I have been following hockey and sports media for decades.

You don't need a PHD to be a capologist. It's just someone who understands the fine details of the cap. But that's not what this is about. This is about negotiation, poor negotiation.

You're grasping onto this idea that we have no idea what will happen in the future. While I don't know with 100% certainty what the cap will be in five years, I can take five minutes and do a quick analysis to see where I project the cap to be based on expected HRR. It won't be 100% accurate, but I bet it's close. Again, I'll challenge you to share what you think the cap will look like in 5 years?

If you go back to 2013 the cap has gone up on average 5% per year. Is there any reason to think that won't continue? Even at that rate Matthews is signing a deal just under $16M per year based on cap percentage. That means you think TV revenues will be flat. Which there is less than 1% chance of happening based on the current TV landscape.

The guys who work for the Leafs have no better knowledge of what the cap will look like in five years than I do. They wouldn't know what NBC, DAZN, ESPN, and several others will offer the NHL for US TV rights. But we all can make an educated estimate. Any estimate you make should tell you the next deal will be more than $200M per year. It's just a matter of how much it will go up. You look at recent contacts for other sports and then draw a relative comparison to the value of the NHL deal.

The only way this deal works out for the Leafs is if Matthews ends up being a career 60 point guy, then at least we'll only have paid him like a 115pt guy for five seasons vs eight.

So basically you are saying you have been watching hockey and TV for decades. So has everyone else over the age of 30.

Not saying you need a PHD to be a capologist but the Leafs have someone there who's job is literally to just deal with cap issues and CBA issues. I think he may have a better understanding then you of the "fine details of the cap"

You actually say in this section of your post that you think you know pretty accurately where the cap will be in 5 years ? what if there is another lockout, what if there is another recession, what if the leagues attendance number drop etc.

You also have no idea if Matthews will look to get the same cap percentage. Will the team be better or worse in 5 years ? any cups yet ? Are they pressed against the cap ? Is matthews better or worse then today ? There is absolutely no way you can know the future.

The fact that you think you know as much as NHL gm's or assistant gm's is laughable.

You are making a crazy amount of "assumptions" that all have to pan out as you lay them out for it to be a bad deal. Why not just wait a bit and see what happens ?

 

[tmlfan98]

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Very interesting predictions here. It's apparently based off Matt Cane's model, which I remember specifically for predicting Nylander would get 7x5 before July 1st, and he actually ended up getting 6.96x6...pretty close.

Panarin's number for 7 years is 10.68
Rantanen is 10.11x8
Aho is 10.02x8
Marner is 9.79x8
Point is 8.24x5
Boeser is 7.51x8
Laine is in the 5.07-6.16 range on a 2-3 year bridge
Karlsson is 9.46x7

 

[The CyNick]

So basically you are saying you have been watching hockey and TV for decades. So has everyone else over the age of 30.

Not saying you need a PHD to be a capologist but the Leafs have someone there who's job is literally to just deal with cap issues and CBA issues. I think he may have a better understanding then you of the "fine details of the cap"

You actually say in this section of your post that you think you know pretty accurately where the cap will be in 5 years ? what if there is another lockout, what if there is another recession, what if the leagues attendance number drop etc.

You also have no idea if Matthews will look to get the same cap percentage. Will the team be better or worse in 5 years ? any cups yet ? Are they pressed against the cap ? Is matthews better or worse then today ? There is absolutely no way you can know the future.

The fact that you think you know as much as NHL gm's or assistant gm's is laughable.

You are making a crazy amount of "assumptions" that all have to pan out as you lay them out for it to be a bad deal. Why not just wait a bit and see what happens ?

Because we're discussing the topic today. In five years we will have full clarity, doesn't mean you can't discuss or form an opinion right now. By your logic we can never discuss a trade or signing or draft because everything will be "we will know The full story in X years". Not exactly a fun way to run a discussion forum, but hey maybe I'm whacky.

I never once said I have a better understanding of the cap. I'm starting to question your reading comprehension now. What I said was this was about negotiation not about cap understanding. I understand enough about the cap to know this deal is equivalent to paying Matthews more than McDavid over 8 years. I understand a lot of TV rights, and I am very comfortable saying the NHL will score a deal worth more than $200M per year.

The only way that statement is incorrect is if the cap is stagnant or goes down. I'll bet tons it goes up significantly in five years based on tv rights alone. You can question that if you like, but I think most people in hockey would agree with me. Could revenues decline? Sure it's possible. It's possible we wake up tomorrow and pigs have learned to fly. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible. I would prefer to keep the conversation in the realm the likely, but I'm whacky like that.

 

[Menzinger]

You say that Marner is going to be paid based on only the comparables on his own team.

Then in the same post you say players on other teams will use Marner as there comparable.

You literally contradict yourself in a single post.

Agents and GM will use both comparables on their team and on other teams. You act like there is only 1 side to a negotiation.

Its beyond illogical to suggest external comparisons arent used in negotiations

 

[Menzinger]

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Very interesting predictions here. It's apparently based off Matt Cane's model, which I remember specifically for predicting Nylander would get 7x5 before July 1st, and he actually ended up getting 6.96x6...pretty close.

Panarin's number for 7 years is 10.68
Rantanen is 10.11x8
Aho is 10.02x8
Marner is 9.79x8
Point is 8.24x5
Boeser is 7.51x8
Laine is in the 5.07-6.16 range on a 2-3 year bridge
Karlsson is 9.46x7

Yep. EvolvingWild has a decent track record.

 

[ACC1224]

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Very interesting predictions here. It's apparently based off Matt Cane's model, which I remember specifically for predicting Nylander would get 7x5 before July 1st, and he actually ended up getting 6.96x6...pretty close.

Panarin's number for 7 years is 10.68
Rantanen is 10.11x8
Aho is 10.02x8
Marner is 9.79x8
Point is 8.24x5
Boeser is 7.51x8
Laine is in the 5.07-6.16 range on a 2-3 year bridge
Karlsson is 9.46x7

Looks like they didn't do too well on the Nelson signing.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Very interesting predictions here. It's apparently based off Matt Cane's model, which I remember specifically for predicting Nylander would get 7x5 before July 1st, and he actually ended up getting 6.96x6...pretty close.

Panarin's number for 7 years is 10.68
Rantanen is 10.11x8
Aho is 10.02x8
Marner is 9.79x8
Point is 8.24x5
Boeser is 7.51x8
Laine is in the 5.07-6.16 range on a 2-3 year bridge
Karlsson is 9.46x7

what dumbass GM is going to sign Gardiner at 7aav for 7 years lol

 

[Menzinger]

Here is the justification. It was reported that Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year @$9 mil bridge deal, which suggests that they placed a $9 mil per season price tag on Auston's RFA years.

So if you reverse engineer that current Matthews contact of 5 years using $9 mil as the price point for 4 X RFA years then that makes his current 5 year (4 X RFA + 1 UFA) based on $58.17 mil and $11.634 mil AAV as Years #1 thru #5;

$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil +$ 22.17 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

Even if you use his current $11.634 mil as his 4th year instead of the $9 mil he offered it looks like this;

$9 mil + $9mil + $9 mil + $11.634 + $19.534 mil (UFA) = 5 years @$ 11.634 AAV & $58.17 mil total.

That is the price tag attached to the single UFA year Leafs purchased from Matthews.

Now sadly for Leaf Nation, Marner his agent Darren Ferris and his Father Paul are going to use that same contact that Matthews just got to their own advantage asking/demanding similar, where Marner is going to want a $10-11 mil AAV contract for 5-6 years. Who knows perhaps they offer the same $9 mil x 3 year bridge deal to start negotiations in order to extract those eye popping UFA year purchases.

PS. This is why McDavid and Eichel got full max 8 year deals not 5 years, because its the UFA years where the real money lies. Eichel needed to surrender 4 X UFA years to get $10 mil AAV and with Matthews having similar NHL PPG points rate (.96 vs .97 in years 2016-2019) he needed to surrender only 1 year to get $11.634 AAV.

Those 8 year rfa deals are basically historical outliers.

If you look at past bluechip rfas like Kane, Malkin, Toews, they tended to sign shorter term deals (5-6 years) and when you adjust for inflation are being paid as much as these bigger deals today in terms of cap%

 

[Menzinger]

what dumbass GM is going to sign Gardiner at 7aav for 7 years lol

Top 3 D man on the UFA market. Hes going to make bank.

 

[Menzinger]

Looks like they didn't do too well on the Nelson signing.

Haed to predict what Lou will do when he sees a vet he likes lol

 

[4thline]

Those 8 year rfa deals are basically historical outliers.

If you look at past bluechip rfas like Kane, Malkin, Toews, they tended to sign shorter term deals (5-6 years) and when you adjust for inflation are being paid as much as these bigger deals today in terms of cap%

Not to mention that @Mess model doesn't stand up to the 1st light breeze of scrutiny, as a 22.17 million UFA year puts him at 15.58m 8 year ask, when the rumour was 13 - 13.8.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Haed to predict what Lou will do when he sees a vet he likes lol

That's why he and babcock got along so well

 

[The CyNick]

If you use $9M for 3 RFA years and $16.5M the rest of the way you get to the average he was looking at. How it split out in year 4 vs 5-8 is basically irrelevant.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Leafs should offer Marner $9.5m x 8 years, and tell him if he hasn't signed by July 1st, they'll be forced to pursue other options.

At that point, throw money at Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin, and see if you can get them. If you get one of them, and Mitch still hasn't signed, explore trading his rights. If he signs an offer sheet, take the picks and enjoy getting bonus picks without hurting the roster.

If he decides to sign with us, explore trade options to get us under the cap, whether it's by trading Mitch, or other guys.

The idea that Mitch should get the Matthews deal is nuts. The Leafs would be stupid to give him anything more than the $10.6m, and there's not really an offer sheet that would push us there. For that money, you can pursue UFA's who are as good or better, and get picks for the future.

 

[The CyNick]

Leafs should offer Marner $9.5m x 8 years, and tell him if he hasn't signed by July 1st, they'll be forced to pursue other options.

At that point, throw money at Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin, and see if you can get them. If you get one of them, and Mitch still hasn't signed, explore trading his rights. If he signs an offer sheet, take the picks and enjoy getting bonus picks without hurting the roster.

If he decides to sign with us, explore trade options to get us under the cap, whether it's by trading Mitch, or other guys.

The idea that Mitch should get the Matthews deal is nuts. The Leafs would be stupid to give him anything more than the $10.6m, and there's not really an offer sheet that would push us there. For that money, you can pursue UFA's who are as good or better, and get picks for the future.

It was nuts that Matthews got the Matthews deal. Since he did, you have a domino effect that you need to deal with.

I'm all for drawing a line in the sand, but that should have first been done with nylander and then Matthews. Then the marner deal would have been easy.

The whole draft pick thing is likely fools gold. We should be in win now mode. Four picks in the 20s won't start paying off for 3 years. Liljegren was a 17th pick and he's not cracked the lineup, much less made a difference.

You can argue the picks can be turned into other players, which is true. But it's not like we have unlimited money. If we sign marner at 10+, it likely means AJ and Kap are gone. If we trade Marner's rights do we then decide to keep those guys? If you do, a lot of our Marner savings are gone. The UFA list outside Bread man isn't very appealing and I don't think he's looking to come here on a cheap deal.

Trading Marner would be a huge step back in the plan. You're better off trading Nylander and just accept the poor negotiation cost you a high end player.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Because we're discussing the topic today. In five years we will have full clarity, doesn't mean you can't discuss or form an opinion right now. By your logic we can never discuss a trade or signing or draft because everything will be "we will know The full story in X years". Not exactly a fun way to run a discussion forum, but hey maybe I'm whacky.

I never once said I have a better understanding of the cap. I'm starting to question your reading comprehension now. What I said was this was about negotiation not about cap understanding. I understand enough about the cap to know this deal is equivalent to paying Matthews more than McDavid over 8 years. I understand a lot of TV rights, and I am very comfortable saying the NHL will score a deal worth more than $200M per year.

The only way that statement is incorrect is if the cap is stagnant or goes down. I'll bet tons it goes up significantly in five years based on tv rights alone. You can question that if you like, but I think most people in hockey would agree with me. Could revenues decline? Sure it's possible. It's possible we wake up tomorrow and pigs have learned to fly. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible. I would prefer to keep the conversation in the realm the likely, but I'm whacky like that.

Again, I did not say you cannot discuss this or have an opinion on it. I'm saying your opinion takes a lot of hypotheticals to make your opinion come true.

You know like how a discussion works.

"The guys who work for the Leafs have no better knowledge of what the cap will look like in five years than I do." - This is your exact quote. I am sure the Leafs management team has a better idea then you about the cap.