Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[WTFMAN99]

But how can you say they are awful ?

Nylander's 7 AAV comes in very close to comparables that signed similar contracts.

Matthews 11.6 AAV is less then McDavid, which to me is the only comparable to him right now (based on age and importance).

Matthews value is was 12.5M on an 8 year deal accounting for an 83M cap this off-season.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

The contracts are awful. Matthews could and should have been locked up for 11x8 last summer. Nylander at 6.3 x 7 years. Nylanders is especially eggregious considering he sat out. Accounting for the time missed, he should have had 93.3 % of the contract i mentioned. Thats 5.88MM over 7 years. That is what happens when u sit out. Instead he got 7MM x 6 years.

Doesn't make much sense to say Nylander's contract is bad, if you even admit his cap hit of $6.9m annually will only be $600k higher than the $6.3m you think is fair.

Accounting for time missed doesn't make sense either, since it's based on an arbitrary number that you selected. For all you know, they did account for time missed, and the contract would have been $7.4m annually.

The Matthews deal I'll agree, was not good. It's not necessarily terrible. He just didn't give any hint of a discount.

 

[DarkKnight]

Doesn't make much sense to say Nylander's contract is bad, if you even admit his cap hit of $6.9m annually will only be $600k higher than the $6.3m you think is fair.

Accounting for time missed doesn't make sense either, since it's based on an arbitrary number that you selected. For all you know, they did account for time missed, and the contract would have been $7.4m annually.

The Matthews deal I'll agree, was not good. It's not necessarily terrible. He just didn't give any hint of a discount.

Don't forget when people throw out a "fair" number for Nylander it isn't just the 600 grand, it's also the term. That extra year cited in your response was a UFA year, wherein you expect the cap hit to increase because you're purchasing another prime year. These conversations always forget term and then excuse the overpayment based on that solely.

I'd argue saving 600 grand on a cap hit is a big deal, you average that out over a few deals, you've added another decent player, instead of looking for some cheap minimum player. Also, you've set the tone to overpay other players now, nobody would argue Marner operates in isolation, the "over payments" to Willie and Matthews will affect his number, so the cost to the team again is amplified. Then factor in Matthews crappy term, again Nylander only giving up oneUFA year, the contracts look even less attractive.

When people say "over pay" never forget term because part of the reason you do so is too get the all important free agent years, which Dubas failed to do. He also front loaded the deals, so banking all that cash results in an even bigger payday, assuming interest, which is another failure to not extract any "concession" given the favourable terms for the player.

 

[The CyNick]

He makes less then McDavid.

You and other posters say he makes more based on term, with absolutely no evidence to what a UFA year costs.

Show some evidence and I can agree with you. Pull numbers out of thin air and I can't.

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

I can go through the math with you, but I prefer to teach people to fish vs giving them a fish to eat.

I would challenge you to do your own analysis on the subject. We know what Matthews and McDavid are making each for five years. There is no disputing for five years of their respective deals McDavid will get more.

However, the Oilers GM was smart and negotiated an 8 year deal with McDavid, the maximum allowed under the CBA. The Leafs young GM, maybe due to lack of experience, I don't know, chose to hand out a 5 year deal. I'm sure you can calculate that that's a 3 year difference in term length.

In 5 years Matthews will look to negotiate a new deal. Here's the key, do you anticipate the cap will go up or down in that time? With a new US TV contact on the horizon, I envision a much higher cap than the one today. As players negotiate based on percentage of the cap, it's safe to assume the 3 years balance will be far more expensive than McDavid's deal.

My forecast has Matthews new deal in the 16-17M range. Even if you split the difference at 16.5M that's a 1M dollar difference between McDavid's 8 years and Matthews. So essentially the young GM believes over 8 years Matthews is worth more than the undisputed best player in the game.

Important to note I believe my forecast is very conservative. It's entirely possible the cap increases even more, which will increase Matthews deal even more, which will increase the gap even more.

You also have to factor in the risk that Matthews is essentially being walked into free agency at that rate. Which makes the deal even crazier. McDavid meanwhile is locked up as long at possible and by the end of the deal the Oilers will look very smart because McDavid's percentage cap hit will be far lower than Matthews.

 

[4thline]

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

Your mom saying "That's nice dear" doesn't exactly count as a recommendation

 

[18leafsfan18]

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

I can go through the math with you, but I prefer to teach people to fish vs giving them a fish to eat.

I would challenge you to do your own analysis on the subject. We know what Matthews and McDavid are making each for five years. There is no disputing for five years of their respective deals McDavid will get more.

However, the Oilers GM was smart and negotiated an 8 year deal with McDavid, the maximum allowed under the CBA. The Leafs young GM, maybe due to lack of experience, I don't know, chose to hand out a 5 year deal. I'm sure you can calculate that that's a 3 year difference in term length.

In 5 years Matthews will look to negotiate a new deal. Here's the key, do you anticipate the cap will go up or down in that time? With a new US TV contact on the horizon, I envision a much higher cap than the one today. As players negotiate based on percentage of the cap, it's safe to assume the 3 years balance will be far more expensive than McDavid's deal.

My forecast has Matthews new deal in the 16-17M range. Even if you split the difference at 16.5M that's a 1M dollar difference between McDavid's 8 years and Matthews. So essentially the young GM believes over 8 years Matthews is worth more than the undisputed best player in the game.

Important to note I believe my forecast is very conservative. It's entirely possible the cap increases even more, which will increase Matthews deal even more, which will increase the gap even more.

You also have to factor in the risk that Matthews is essentially being walked into free agency at that rate. Which makes the deal even crazier. McDavid meanwhile is locked up as long at possible and by the end of the deal the Oilers will look very smart because McDavid's percentage cap hit will be far lower than Matthews.

Yes you may be correct. However you have multiple "ifs" in your scenario.

We won't know if Matthews deal will be more then McDavid's until his current deal is over. Many many "ifs" can happen in that time.

Look at Marleau, when he was signed I don't think many fans had a problem with his cap hit. Now fans absolutely hate it.

I never said the Matthews deal is a great deal, I said it is fair.

The fact remains and will remain for the entire 5 years of the deal, his average is 11.6 and he could have got 13 or 13.5 (McDavid money with raise in cap).

 

[Notsince67]

But how can you say they are awful ?

Nylander's 7 AAV comes in very close to comparables that signed similar contracts.

Matthews 11.6 AAV is less then McDavid, which to me is the only comparable to him right now (based on age and importance).

On Nylander...the fact is he sat out and his AAV should reflect 93.3% of his comparables. If you true up to 100% to figure out what the comaparable dollars are, it is 7.5MM. Please tell me who the person is that makes this money for 6 years that he is aligned with. With respect to Matthews, you cannot say his deal is not better than McDavids. Notionally, a salary cap increase of 4.4% annually gets Matthews 14.15MM by year 6 assuming he takes the same cap percentage and doesnt get better. That gives him a higher 8 year salary than McDavid.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

 

[18leafsfan18]

On Nylander...the fact is he sat out and his AAV should reflect 93.3% of his comparables. If you true up to 100% to figure out what the comaparable dollars are, it is 7.5MM. Please tell me who the person is that makes this money for 6 years that he is aligned with. With respect to Matthews, you cannot say his deal is not better than McDavids. Notionally, a salary cap increase of 4.4% annually gets Matthews 14.15MM by year 6 assuming he takes the same cap percentage and doesnt get better. That gives him a higher 8 year salary than McDavid.

There have been so many posts about his comparables. There are some players above and some below his cap hit.

How do you already know Nylander and Matthews next contracts ?

Everyone just rushes to crap all over everything before there is even an issue.

 

[biotk]

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

Lol. You should have stopped typing there because I imagine everyone was laughing too hard to keep reading.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lol. You should have stopped typing there because I imagine everyone was laughing too hard to keep reading.

You hit the nail bang on, right in the sweet spot. I found that piece of gold and saw absolutely zero reason to read even one more word.

 

[Kamiccolo]

So I skipped ahead of all the bickering, any kind Leaf fan willing to provide if any new info has come out in the past two weeks? Or standard radio silence and Dreger saying he is worth 20M AAV?

 

[Notsince67]

There have been so many posts about his comparables. There are some players above and some below his cap hit.

How do you already know Nylander and Matthews next contracts ?

Everyone just rushes to crap all over everything before there is even an issue.

I just took cap increases % across the years. Simple assumption and totally conservative...not accounting for improvement

 

[Notsince67]

Doesn't make much sense to say Nylander's contract is bad, if you even admit his cap hit of $6.9m annually will only be $600k higher than the $6.3m you think is fair.

Accounting for time missed doesn't make sense either, since it's based on an arbitrary number that you selected. For all you know, they did account for time missed, and the contract would have been $7.4m annually.

The Matthews deal I'll agree, was not good. It's not necessarily terrible. He just didn't give any hint of a discount.

Not arbitrary considering he wasnt on the roster and shouldnt get paid for it.

 

[Fogelhund]

So I skipped ahead of all the bickering, any kind Leaf fan willing to provide if any new info has come out in the past two weeks? Or standard radio silence and Dreger saying he is worth 20M AAV?

There is no new information available at all on this.

 

[Menzinger]

Matthews makes more than McDavid based on term. Matthews wouldn't come in at, or less than, 12.5 M on an eight year contract. McDavid wouldn't figure to come in at, or more than, 11.634 M on a five year contract.

Where does the 3M AAV come from?

No he doesn't. McDavid makes more money and has a greater aav over his remaining RFA years. Which is the only things that matter

The only counter point to this just speculative guesswork around hypotheticals

 

[Menzinger]

Don't forget when people throw out a "fair" number for Nylander it isn't just the 600 grand, it's also the term. That extra year cited in your response was a UFA year, wherein you expect the cap hit to increase because you're purchasing another prime year. These conversations always forget term and then excuse the overpayment based on that solely.

I'd argue saving 600 grand on a cap hit is a big deal, you average that out over a few deals, you've added another decent player, instead of looking for some cheap minimum player. Also, you've set the tone to overpay other players now, nobody would argue Marner operates in isolation, the "over payments" to Willie and Matthews will affect his number, so the cost to the team again is amplified. Then factor in Matthews crappy term, again Nylander only giving up oneUFA year, the contracts look even less attractive.

When people say "over pay" never forget term because part of the reason you do so is too get the all important free agent years, which Dubas failed to do. He also front loaded the deals, so banking all that cash results in an even bigger payday, assuming interest, which is another failure to not extract any "concession" given the favourable terms for the player.

Can you name a single contract that seems to have been lowered due to front loading? It's common practice, but that doesnt have much impact on aav.

The team benefits as much as thr player, as it allows the asset to potentially hold extra value in a trade to a budget team

 

[Advanced stats]

So I skipped ahead of all the bickering, any kind Leaf fan willing to provide if any new info has come out in the past two weeks? Or standard radio silence and Dreger saying he is worth 20M AAV?

The athletic has a great new piece basically saying he's not worth more than 8x10 based on every single comparable out there. Honestly a great read seeing how he stacks up against the field.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I would recommend reading all of my posts on this subject, they come highly recommended.

I recommend using a thesaurus, those are highly recommended

 

[Menzinger]

The athletic has a great new piece basically saying he's not worth more than 8x10 based on every single comparable out there. Honestly a great read seeing how he stacks up against the field.

Yep. Was a great read.

At the moment I suspect the Leafs will optnflr shorter term aav, but that likely determined how confident management is at dumping say Zaitsev or Marleau over the summer

 

[Gary Nylund]

Can you name a single contract that seems to have been lowered due to front loading? It's common practice, but that doesnt have much impact on aav.

The team benefits as much as thr player, as it allows the asset to potentially hold extra value in a trade to a budget team

Intresting point.

The athletic has a great new piece basically saying he's not worth more than 8x10 based on every single comparable out there. Honestly a great read seeing how he stacks up against the field.

Was Matthews one of the compareables?

 

[Buds17]

No he doesn't. McDavid makes more money and has a greater aav over his remaining RFA years. Which is the only things that matter

The only counter point to this just speculative guesswork around hypotheticals

You're obviously right about the money and AAV being in McDavid's favour over the RFA years, and both contracts do cover four RFA years each. Why are the money and AAV the only things that matter though when RFA years account for 50% total of the McDavid contract in comparison to 80% of the Matthews contract?

 

[Legion34]

Don't forget when people throw out a "fair" number for Nylander it isn't just the 600 grand, it's also the term. That extra year cited in your response was a UFA year, wherein you expect the cap hit to increase because you're purchasing another prime year. These conversations always forget term and then excuse the overpayment based on that solely.

I'd argue saving 600 grand on a cap hit is a big deal, you average that out over a few deals, you've added another decent player, instead of looking for some cheap minimum player. Also, you've set the tone to overpay other players now, nobody would argue Marner operates in isolation, the "over payments" to Willie and Matthews will affect his number, so the cost to the team again is amplified. Then factor in Matthews crappy term, again Nylander only giving up oneUFA year, the contracts look even less attractive.

When people say "over pay" never forget term because part of the reason you do so is too get the all important free agent years, which Dubas failed to do. He also front loaded the deals, so banking all that cash results in an even bigger payday, assuming interest, which is another failure to not extract any "concession" given the favourable terms for the player.

Literally every RFA with the same PPG over contract years was a 6 year deal.

You are also forgetting that the “600k” which you have decided he was overpaid by (which bob McKenzie disagrees with). Becomes less significant as the cap goes up.

People are literally complaining about less than the league minimum. It’s less than 1 percent of the cap. It’s not a a big deal.

In my mind. If we are keeping them both. The only problem with the contracts is that Willy and Matty end in. The same year

 

[The CyNick]

Yes you may be correct. However you have multiple "ifs" in your scenario.

We won't know if Matthews deal will be more then McDavid's until his current deal is over. Many many "ifs" can happen in that time.

Look at Marleau, when he was signed I don't think many fans had a problem with his cap hit. Now fans absolutely hate it.

I never said the Matthews deal is a great deal, I said it is fair.

The fact remains and will remain for the entire 5 years of the deal, his average is 11.6 and he could have got 13 or 13.5 (McDavid money with raise in cap).

Let's it keep it simple.

The current NHL rights deal in the US is roughly $200M per year. Based on recent sports tv rights deals, do you think this number will go up or down? Take a look at other sports, heck even read about the recent WWE TV deals and you should come to a similar conclusion as I did.

That's ignoring any other revenue sources that the league may come up with in the next five years.

You can call them ifs, but realistically they are soon to be facts. I would be very curious to see someone's logic who doesn't think Matthews next deal will be in the range I am predicting.

The good news for you is if I'm wrong, given how most people on this board hang on my every word, it will be brought back up.

 

[Legion34]

Intresting point.



Was Matthews one of the compareables?

They aren’t comparable