Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Legion34]

OK then, who is? I only ask because I suspect his best comparables are players who are in the same position he's in - they haven't signed long term yet.



Haha yeah, pretty much.

No. Sorry I misunderstood. His absolute best comparables are yet to be signed....

rantananen. aho. etc......

 

[Kamiccolo]

I can't help but feel that if Dubas never made the promise to Tavares about not trading anyone to fit him in that the contracts on the team... and possibly it's composition would be vastly different.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Matthews value is was 12.5M on an 8 year deal accounting for an 83M cap this off-season.

The extra three years are worth the 1mil per year more.

 

[WTFMAN99]

The extra three years are worth the 1mil per year more.

McDavid signed for 16.68% of the cap.

Giving Matthews a bit over 15% of an 83M would result in a 12.5M cap. That is real math. He hasn't won an Art Ross, Hart, Ted Lindsay, Rocket or even a playoff round. So I feel pretty justified in reiterating that again, 12.5M x 8 years was a very fair contract. Giving the 2nd highest cap hit in the league and only getting 5 years of term in control is a massive failure on Dubas's part.

 

[Stephen]

If the rumour that Matthews was willing to accept $9 million over 3 years on a "bridge" deal taking him to the end of this current CBA is true, the thinking must have been that he would then graduate to a $15 million per year contract, which makes the $11.6 million averaged out over 5 years seem correct.

 

[DarkKnight]

Can you name a single contract that seems to have been lowered due to front loading? It's common practice, but that doesnt have much impact on aav.

The team benefits as much as thr player, as it allows the asset to potentially hold extra value in a trade to a budget team

Of course.

 

[The CyNick]

The fact that he accepted that Matthews should be paid at the top of the league shows how terrible he is at negotiation.

 

[Kiwi]

McDavid signed for 16.68% of the cap.

Giving Matthews a bit over 15% of an 83M would result in a 12.5M cap. That is real math. He hasn't won an Art Ross, Hart, Ted Lindsay, Rocket or even a playoff round. So I feel pretty justified in reiterating that again, 12.5M x 8 years was a very fair contract. Giving the 2nd highest cap hit in the league and only getting 5 years of term in control is a massive failure on Dubas's part.

It was an appalling contract, I don't see how it could be looked at any other way

The 2nd highest cap hit with minimal contract length that let's him hit UFA in his mid 20's is a horror show and makes Eichel's contract look beautiful in comparison even though he's a signifigantly worse player

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Not sure why people think you need to win an Art Ross to be a comparable player to an Art Ross winner. A lot of PP time goes into an Art Ross and a single player doesn’t have much control over how much PP time their team gets. Same with rocket. Matthews scores more primary points than McDavid when he’s on the ice both PP and 5v5 and more goals than Ovechkin did during his ELC He got more than Eichel and less than Malkin and that seems about right. Dubas structures contracts exactly like pens did when they had a bunch of elite talent hitting the stage at the same time.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If the rumour that Matthews was willing to accept $9 million over 3 years on a "bridge" deal taking him to the end of this current CBA is true, the thinking must have been that he would then graduate to a $15 million per year contract, which makes the $11.6 million averaged out over 5 years seem correct.

Yea 5+8 tends to be more palpable long term than 3+8. 5+8 buys incline/RFA years and some prime UFA in one contract, then buys some prime and some decline years in the next. Many examples show that you get the same cap hit % in the follow up 8, which is about as well as you can spread out a player’s earnings as you can get.

Taking EDM as another example, they don’t have as many good players as Toronto, so they can eat a higher cap hit % in McDavids first contract so makes sense for them.

Similar situation with BUF and Eichels 8yr.

 

[4thline]

McDavid signed for 16.68% of the cap.

Giving Matthews a bit over 15% of an 83M would result in a 12.5M cap. That is real math. He hasn't won an Art Ross, Hart, Ted Lindsay, Rocket or even a playoff round. So I feel pretty justified in reiterating that again, 12.5M x 8 years was a very fair contract. Giving the 2nd highest cap hit in the league and only getting 5 years of term in control is a massive failure on Dubas's part.

Connecting bold 1 and bold 2 is hyperbole that ignores "real math".

If you lock in at 12.5 x 8 his current contract values those 3 extra years at 13.94 million, or 15% of a 92.9 million dollar cap. Perhaps a little low given expansion and the new tv deal, but not unreasonable.

At 11 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years 15 million a piece, 15% of a 100m cap.

At 10.634 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years at 15.6, 15% of a 104 million dollar cap.


Calling it a massive failure would require one to believe that either/ both:

-the cap is going to materially exceed 100 million in the next 4-5 years
- over the next 5 years Matthews is going to establish himself as McDavid's equal and slot into the ~17% range rather than the 15% on his next contract.

We should have gotten a 6th year or paid .6- to 1 million less, I don't think anyone can argue that. but in the scope of a player of this calibre kvetching about .6-1 million is losing sight of the forest for the trees. Not getting the 6th year to match Tavares term is more concerning

 

[hotpaws]

Not sure why people think you need to win an Art Ross to be a comparable player to an Art Ross winner. A lot of PP time goes into an Art Ross and a single player doesn’t have much control over how much PP time their team gets. Same with rocket. Matthews scores more primary points than McDavid when he’s on the ice both PP and 5v5 and more goals than Ovechkin did during his ELC He got more than Eichel and less than Malkin and that seems about right. Dubas structures contracts exactly like pens did when they had a bunch of elite talent hitting the stage at the same time.

more goals than Ovi did on his elc ?

elc goals , hockey reference

Ovi - 163 g , 101 g ev

AM - 111 g , 86 g ev

and Ovi also paced higher if you want to take into account the games missed

can't be bothered to look up the rest of your claims and why would anyone want to follow the Pens lead when they didn't win another cup for years when both Sid and Geno were off there elc's and then only when the cap went up to lower there % of cap

 

[hotpaws]

Connecting bold 1 and bold 2 is hyperbole that ignores "real math".

If you lock in at 12.5 x 8 his current contract values those 3 extra years at 13.94 million, or 15% of a 92.9 million dollar cap. Perhaps a little low given expansion and the new tv deal, but not unreasonable.

At 11 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years 15 million a piece, 15% of a 100m cap.

At 10.634 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years at 15.6, 15% of a 104 million dollar cap.


Calling it a massive failure would require one to believe that either/ both:

-the cap is going to materially exceed 100 million in the next 4-5 years
- over the next 5 years Matthews is going to establish himself as McDavid's equal and slot into the ~17% range rather than the 15% on his next contract.

We should have gotten a 6th year or paid .6- to 1 million less, I don't think anyone can argue that. but in the scope of a player of this calibre kvetching about .6-1 million is losing sight of the forest for the trees. Not getting the 6th year to match Tavares term is more concerning

AM's my favorite players but unless McD regresses for some reason AM will never establish himself as his equal and that's not a knock on Mathews , that's simply acknowledging what type of special talent CD is .

 

[4thline]

AM's my favorite players but unless McD regresses for some reason AM will never establish himself as his equal and that's not a knock on Mathews , that's simply acknowledging what type of special talent CD is .

Do you think the cap will have significantly exceeded the ~100m range by the time he's re-signed?

 

[Mess]

The whole NHL RFA player world is waiting on the Marner contract.

Players and agents are waiting for Marner to raise the bar for all of them on their next deals, using the Nylander and Matthews contracts as their belief that Leafs hand out the richest contracts above NHL comparables, and that moves the entire market up for everybody else that follows.

They all want Mitch to go first as does the NHLPA as well.

 

[ULF_55]

AM's my favorite players but unless McD regresses for some reason AM will never establish himself as his equal and that's not a knock on Mathews , that's simply acknowledging what type of special talent CD is .

Yeah, so far I don't see Matthews in the McDavid category and Marner is a different player altogether.

Skating separates McDavid from almost everyone. There are others who might skate like him, but they don't bring his skill set or hands.

And goals are more important than assists ... they just are.
GPG
McDavid .45
Matthews .52
Marner .28

 

[Gary Nylund]

The whole NHL RFA player world is waiting on the Marner contract.

Players and agents are waiting for Marner to raise the bar for all of them on their next deals, using the Nylander and Matthews contracts as their belief that Leafs hand out the richest contracts above NHL comparables, and that moves the entire market up for everybody else that follows.

They all want Mitch to go first as does the NHLPA as well.

Source?

 

[ULF_55]

The whole NHL RFA player world is waiting on the Marner contract.

Players and agents are waiting for Marner to raise the bar for all of them on their next deals, using the Nylander and Matthews contracts as their belief that Leafs hand out the richest contracts above NHL comparables, and that moves the entire market up for everybody else that follows.

They all want Mitch to go first as does the NHLPA as well.

Marner's deal is likely a game change, Nylander's not even in the same ballpark.

Depending on the deal, Marner is going to have to hit multiple 100 point seasons, with 40'ish goals, to justify 8 digits.

 

[hotpaws]

Do you think the cap will have significantly exceeded the ~100m range by the time he's re-signed?

what does this have to do with you saying AM will reach CD's level in the next few years ?

 

[hotpaws]

Yeah, so far I don't see Matthews in the McDavid category and Marner is a different player altogether.

Skating separates McDavid from almost everyone. There are others who might skate like him, but they don't bring his skill set or hands.

And goals are more important than assists ... they just are.
GPG
McDavid .45
Matthews .52
Marner .28

I gauge a players overall impact when trying to determine his value and i see McD on higher level than any player in the game but i don't believe there's much of a difference if any between AM and MM.

 

[Mess]

Marner's deal is likely a game change, Nylander's not even in the same ballpark.

Depending on the deal, Marner is going to have to hit multiple 100 point seasons, with 40'ish goals, to justify 8 digits.

Raising different tiers of players league wide.

Nylander's new contract set the comparables market for 60ish point players to demand $7 mil as their floor with only 1 year of UFA status surrendered. Every RFA player that follows now that scored 60+ points will have Nylander as their #1 comparable reference point.

Marner's deal expected to make him among the highest paid wingers in the game on the shortest term contract with the least amount of UFA years purchased by the Leafs.

Patty Kane won scoring titles and Conn Smythe and played on 3 Cup winning Hawks teams before he got his 8 digits (all UFA years), rewarding him as much for past success as future production, in Toronto where the Leafs teams has never won a single playoff round in a Salary Cap World, all their young players are being paid their RFA years like they were UFA years and haven't achieved a thing.

If you want to overplay your franchise #1C like Edmonton did with McDavid and Buffalo Eichel to get them locked away for 8 years before team success, at least you could make a case you were protecting your franchise's most valuable asset, but knowing you're buying away 4 years of unrestricted free agency in the process comes at a steep price also. You're not going to want your player walking away potentially at age 26, and the Tavares leaving his team should have scared the NHL teams GM straight further supporting the 8 year terms for your franchise RFA players.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Let's it keep it simple.

The current NHL rights deal in the US is roughly $200M per year. Based on recent sports tv rights deals, do you think this number will go up or down? Take a look at other sports, heck even read about the recent WWE TV deals and you should come to a similar conclusion as I did.

That's ignoring any other revenue sources that the league may come up with in the next five years.

You can call them ifs, but realistically they are soon to be facts. I would be very curious to see someone's logic who doesn't think Matthews next deal will be in the range I am predicting.

The good news for you is if I'm wrong, given how most people on this board hang on my every word, it will be brought back up.

All I'm saying and have said the whole time is you are evaluating a contract too early.

You have no clue what is going to happen the next 5 years, neither do I or anyone.

The people who have the best idea of what is going to happen are the same people who signed him to the contract. The Leafs literally have a "capologist" to know these things. What are your credentials compared to his ?

 

[4thline]

what does this have to do with you saying AM will reach CD's level in the next few years ?

Calling it a massive failure would require one to believe that either/ both:

-the cap is going to materially exceed 100 million in the next 4-5 years
- over the next 5 years Matthews is going to establish himself as McDavid's equal and slot into the ~17% range rather than the 15% on his next contract.

Lol didn't say that. Read the words on the screen.

If you don't think one of those is likely, it's incredibly hard to justify Matthews being more than .6-1 overpaid over 5 years vs a 12.5x8 valuation.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Negotiations with any teams best player are very tough. You can't take a hard line stance. If you do then sure you likely get your man for a short duration but when time comes up and the leverage is reversed he is gone. This makes it ridiculously hard in a CAP world. But I would like to have seen Dubas get another year on that AAV. He clearly is a smart guy and he did his best. Lou's negotiation with Matty lasted 10 minutes according to Lou. He gave Matty the max on every aspect of the ELC. So behind the scenes Shanny has decided to make things super easy for Matty. I think the strategy will pay off when Matty resigns again with us. But time will tell.

 

[18leafsfan18]

The whole NHL RFA player world is waiting on the Marner contract.

Players and agents are waiting for Marner to raise the bar for all of them on their next deals, using the Nylander and Matthews contracts as their belief that Leafs hand out the richest contracts above NHL comparables, and that moves the entire market up for everybody else that follows.

They all want Mitch to go first as does the NHLPA as well.

You say that Marner is going to be paid based on only the comparables on his own team.

Then in the same post you say players on other teams will use Marner as there comparable.

You literally contradict yourself in a single post.

Agents and GM will use both comparables on their team and on other teams. You act like there is only 1 side to a negotiation.