Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[IPS]

Leafs should offer Marner $9.5m x 8 years, and tell him if he hasn't signed by July 1st, they'll be forced to pursue other options.

At that point, throw money at Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin, and see if you can get them. If you get one of them, and Mitch still hasn't signed, explore trading his rights. If he signs an offer sheet, take the picks and enjoy getting bonus picks without hurting the roster.

If he decides to sign with us, explore trade options to get us under the cap, whether it's by trading Mitch, or other guys.

The idea that Mitch should get the Matthews deal is nuts. The Leafs would be stupid to give him anything more than the $10.6m, and there's not really an offer sheet that would push us there. For that money, you can pursue UFA's who are as good or better, and get picks for the future.

Karlsson will come at a major discount for whomever signs him due to his injury concerns.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Connecting bold 1 and bold 2 is hyperbole that ignores "real math".

If you lock in at 12.5 x 8 his current contract values those 3 extra years at 13.94 million, or 15% of a 92.9 million dollar cap. Perhaps a little low given expansion and the new tv deal, but not unreasonable.

At 11 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years 15 million a piece, 15% of a 100m cap.

At 10.634 x 5 it values the 3 UFA years at 15.6, 15% of a 104 million dollar cap.


Calling it a massive failure would require one to believe that either/ both:

-the cap is going to materially exceed 100 million in the next 4-5 years
- over the next 5 years Matthews is going to establish himself as McDavid's equal and slot into the ~17% range rather than the 15% on his next contract.

We should have gotten a 6th year or paid .6- to 1 million less, I don't think anyone can argue that. but in the scope of a player of this calibre kvetching about .6-1 million is losing sight of the forest for the trees. Not getting the 6th year to match Tavares term is more concerning

He won't because he isn't a generational player. McDavid made Maroon a 30 goal scorer. He went to a conference final. Are you expecting Matthews to win Art Ross Trophys? Hart Trophys? Hell, even a rocket. Something to at least have a conversation.

 

[4thline]

He won't because he isn't a generational player. McDavid made Maroon a 30 goal scorer. He went to a conference final. Are you expecting Matthews to win Art Ross Trophys? Hart Trophys? Hell, even a rocket. Something to at least have a conversation.

Ok that's one down, Matthews likely won't earn a ~16-17% contract.
What about the other. Do you think the cap materially exceeds 104 by the time we re-sign him?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Ok that's one down, Matthews likely won't earn a ~16-17% contract.
What about the other. Do you think the cap materially exceeds 104 by the time we re-sign him?

Super hard to say to be honest.

Pluses -

Gambling
New TV Contract

Negatives-

Canadian dollar

Does the NHLPA use the inflator? I don't know. I think if the dollar continues to suck and the inflator isn't used we're probably looking at a 95-98M cap.

Now if we're talking equal as a player, Matthews won't be equal to McDavid. If you want to say 16-17% on his next contract...probably? He will have the Leafs over a barrel. Either pay him whatever the hell he wants or it is back to rebuilding in 5 years.

 

[Menzinger]

"The guys who work for the Leafs have no better knowledge of what the cap will look like in five years than I do." - This is your exact quote. I am sure the Leafs management team has a better idea then you about the cap.

The notion that a random outsider has as strong of a grasp of cap trends than somebody with league sources and actual knowledge of the cba is peak hfboards logic lol.

 

[The CyNick]

Again, I did not say you cannot discuss this or have an opinion on it. I'm saying your opinion takes a lot of hypotheticals to make your opinion come true.

You know like how a discussion works.

"The guys who work for the Leafs have no better knowledge of what the cap will look like in five years than I do." - This is your exact quote. I am sure the Leafs management team has a better idea then you about the cap.

Not about future revenues though.

The cap is a percentage of hockey related revenues. Being an expert at the cap doesn't make you good at predicting future NHL revenues. You are mixing two totally different things up. It's comical that you quoted that line thinking it proves your point, when it just illustrates you don't understand the topic at hand.

Being an expert at the cap would be understanding how LTIR works before the media does. I did this, but admittedly I'm sure there are some other loopholes in the cap that I am not aware of. A cap expert would be the go to for those kinds of things. I would never claim to know more about every small detail about the cap than someone who contributed to the creation of the cap rules.

All you need to get this right is be able to predict what will happen with HRR in the next five years. I've laid out where I think it will go. You think it's wild speculation when in reality is based on solid information and logical projections.

But hey, more people know your handle now that you've engaged me in a conversation, so I guess mission accomplished.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Point and Marner are the drivers here. Point has said no way to Tampa's 8M offer. Marner has gone quiet after Shanny's lets keep this quiet request.

Will Tampa cave and offer Point Kuch money and get things done? Will Point hold on for 11-12M? This one is very interesting. It tests value of a top 5 NHL centre. It tests Matty, it tests Jack. Tampa has a huge CAP problem this year and next year with Vasi. I am with Burke on this one I think we could see an offer sheet here. I doubt it but it is most likely here given the circumstances. 10.6M for 7 years. Tampa would be in a real pickle. They would have to sign in. Then a bigger tear down will happen in dog days of summer.

Both Tampa and Toronto have more talent then the CAP allows a team.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Both Tampa and Toronto have more talent then the CAP allows a team.

So true.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Not about future revenues though.

The cap is a percentage of hockey related revenues. Being an expert at the cap doesn't make you good at predicting future NHL revenues. You are mixing two totally different things up. It's comical that you quoted that line thinking it proves your point, when it just illustrates you don't understand the topic at hand.

Being an expert at the cap would be understanding how LTIR works before the media does. I did this, but admittedly I'm sure there are some other loopholes in the cap that I am not aware of. A cap expert would be the go to for those kinds of things. I would never claim to know more about every small detail about the cap than someone who contributed to the creation of the cap rules.

All you need to get this right is be able to predict what will happen with HRR in the next five years. I've laid out where I think it will go. You think it's wild speculation when in reality is based on solid information and logical projections.

But hey, more people know your handle now that you've engaged me in a conversation, so I guess mission accomplished.

Never said it was wild speculation either.

I said there are many factors that you have not accounted for (and many that you did). It just so happens all of your "speculation" falls toward your "opinion". All I'm saying is that there is equally as many "Logical projections" that could make things go another way.

You absolutely do not have more knowledge of what the cap will look like in 5 years then the professionals who's sole job it is to know these things. No matter how good you think you are.

 

[Gary Nylund]

But hey, more people know your handle now that you've engaged me in a conversation, so I guess mission accomplished.

Sometimes I wonder if this is a gimmick account or not. I go back and forth between thinking nobody can possibly be this arrogant and thinking I dunno, mebbe they can. Either way I do feel a little bit sorry for you, have a nice day.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sometimes I wonder if this is a gimmick account or not. I go back and forth between thinking nobody can possibly be this arrogant and thinking I dunno, mebbe they can. Either way I do feel a little bit sorry for you, have a nice day.

I tried, but I guess I'm just not as Smart or Psychic.

 

[The CyNick]

Never said it was wild speculation either.

I said there are many factors that you have not accounted for (and many that you did). It just so happens all of your "speculation" falls toward your "opinion". All I'm saying is that there is equally as many "Logical projections" that could make things go another way.

You absolutely do not have more knowledge of what the cap will look like in 5 years then the professionals who's sole job it is to know these things. No matter how good you think you are.

Again you're moving things up. Do you think the AGM for the Leafs is on conversations between Bettman and NBC regarding tv rights? Do you think he's in on the side bar off the record chats with DAZN, ESPN, and a host of other interested parties? The answer is no. He has no more insight on that than I do. And I could make an argument based on who I talk to about this topic that I have a better idea of where this will all end up. Do I know 100%? But the AGMs don't know any better than I do.

Curious to see your list of risks to drive down the cap in five years.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

It was nuts that Matthews got the Matthews deal. Since he did, you have a domino effect that you need to deal with.

I'm all for drawing a line in the sand, but that should have first been done with nylander and then Matthews. Then the marner deal would have been easy.

The whole draft pick thing is likely fools gold. We should be in win now mode. Four picks in the 20s won't start paying off for 3 years. Liljegren was a 17th pick and he's not cracked the lineup, much less made a difference.

You can argue the picks can be turned into other players, which is true. But it's not like we have unlimited money. If we sign marner at 10+, it likely means AJ and Kap are gone. If we trade Marner's rights do we then decide to keep those guys? If you do, a lot of our Marner savings are gone. The UFA list outside Bread man isn't very appealing and I don't think he's looking to come here on a cheap deal.

Trading Marner would be a huge step back in the plan. You're better off trading Nylander and just accept the poor negotiation cost you a high end player.

There is definitely an effect due to the Matthews contract, but the fact is, Mitch can only make as much as another team is willing to pay him with an offer sheet. That's his max.

I expect there is no chance a team will sacrifice 4 1st round picks. If they do, then let him walk. But I expect that offer won't come.

Thus, he's capped at $10.6m, at most, annually.

The next question is if a team is willing to pay him $10m+, and how many years they're willing to go, whilst giving up 1-1-2-3 picks.

Again, I'm not sure how many teams will be willing. But there's really only a small window there. If the Leafs offer $9.5m x 8 years, it will be very hard for a team to make a more attractive offer that actually fits their own budget and cap structure.

Also, the Leafs have a lot more salary cap wiggle room than people think. They could easily engineer an Orpik style buy-out with Marleau, where he comes back next year at a $1m cap-hit. They can deal Zaitsev and Brown. We're not nearly as tight as Tampa, for instance.

But that doesn't mean we need to overpay Mitch.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Again you're moving things up. Do you think the AGM for the Leafs is on conversations between Bettman and NBC regarding tv rights? Do you think he's in on the side bar off the record chats with DAZN, ESPN, and a host of other interested parties? The answer is no. He has no more insight on that than I do. And I could make an argument based on who I talk to about this topic that I have a better idea of where this will all end up. Do I know 100%? But the AGMs don't know any better than I do.

Curious to see your list of risks to drive down the cap in five years.

It actually baffles me that you think you actually have anywhere close to the insight and sources a AGM in the NHL has, but we are never going to agree on that so we can just let that go. Agree to disagree.

Never said the cap was going down at all.

You are "assuming" it goes up the same way it has in the past, which could be correct. It could also be incorrect because like I said you have no clue what may happen in the next 5 years.

You are also "assuming" Matthews will want a higher percentage of the cap when that 5 years is up. But again there are many many factors that could change that going up or down.

I'm literally not calling you wrong, just saying you are only looking at 1 side of it, the side of it where everything falls in the wrong direction for the Leafs (An extremely common practice of many Leafs Fans). Sky is always falling for some reason.

Maybe, just maybe the management team has a plan. Did you expect the Horton for Clarkson Trade ? The Phaneuf trade with no cap retention ? I don't think anyone did.

 

[The CyNick]

There is definitely an effect due to the Matthews contract, but the fact is, Mitch can only make as much as another team is willing to pay him with an offer sheet. That's his max.

I expect there is no chance a team will sacrifice 4 1st round picks. If they do, then let him walk. But I expect that offer won't come.

Thus, he's capped at $10.6m, at most, annually.

The next question is if a team is willing to pay him $10m+, and how many years they're willing to go, whilst giving up 1-1-2-3 picks.

Again, I'm not sure how many teams will be willing. But there's really only a small window there. If the Leafs offer $9.5m x 8 years, it will be very hard for a team to make a more attractive offer that actually fits their own budget and cap structure.

Also, the Leafs have a lot more salary cap wiggle room than people think. They could easily engineer an Orpik style buy-out with Marleau, where he comes back next year at a $1m cap-hit. They can deal Zaitsev and Brown. We're not nearly as tight as Tampa, for instance.

But that doesn't mean we need to overpay Mitch.

Nothing will happen with Marleau unless he's unhappy here. It would such a horrible lock for the organization to ship him off and plus he would have to sign off on it.

Brown will be dealt. Zaitsev I'm not sure about. I think you hope to coach him up. He did look better in the playoffs.

As for the marner debate, I think it's possible a team offer sheets him. But the power is with the marner camp. The young GM continued his MO of saying too much in the media basically said he has to get this deal done by July 1. You haven't heard the marner camp say we need to have a deal done by X date. So the pressure is all on the Leafs and therefore the power lies with marner. If he's set on getting the Matthews deal, then he should get it.

Outside of but being a centre, I don't really see the argument against him matching Matthews. He put up more points. He's more durable. He kills penalties. Hes the catalyst to JT having a career year.

$11.616 for five years seems very likely to me.

 

[The CyNick]

It actually baffles me that you think you actually have anywhere close to the insight and sources a AGM in the NHL has, but we are never going to agree on that so we can just let that go. Agree to disagree.

Never said the cap was going down at all.

You are "assuming" it goes up the same way it has in the past, which could be correct. It could also be incorrect because like I said you have no clue what may happen in the next 5 years.

You are also "assuming" Matthews will want a higher percentage of the cap when that 5 years is up. But again there are many many factors that could change that going up or down.

I'm literally not calling you wrong, just saying you are only looking at 1 side of it, the side of it where everything falls in the wrong direction for the Leafs (An extremely common practice of many Leafs Fans). Sky is always falling for some reason.

Maybe, just maybe the management team has a plan. Did you expect the Horton for Clarkson Trade ? The Phaneuf trade with no cap retention ? I don't think anyone did.

I'm not just assuming randomly. I have data and market trends to backup my logic. Where's you logic to counter what I'm saying. So far your only counters are "it's not guaranteed" and your illogical assumptions that AGMs are privy to tv rights negotiations.

Don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe I purposely kept the percentage the same. Possibly a small increase to account for additional accolades he would expect to get. There's no reason to think he takes a discount because nobody on our team does.

I actually look at everything from all angles. That's the point. I don't see the argument on the other side. That's what I'm trying to pull out of you. If we're in a court of law you're just screaming I object, but don't have any evidence to prove your case.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Nothing will happen with Marleau unless he's unhappy here. It would such a horrible lock for the organization to ship him off and plus he would have to sign off on it.

Brown will be dealt. Zaitsev I'm not sure about. I think you hope to coach him up. He did look better in the playoffs.

As for the marner debate, I think it's possible a team offer sheets him. But the power is with the marner camp. The young GM continued his MO of saying too much in the media basically said he has to get this deal done by July 1. You haven't heard the marner camp say we need to have a deal done by X date. So the pressure is all on the Leafs and therefore the power lies with marner. If he's set on getting the Matthews deal, then he should get it.

Outside of but being a centre, I don't really see the argument against him matching Matthews. He put up more points. He's more durable. He kills penalties. Hes the catalyst to JT having a career year.

$11.616 for five years seems very likely to me.

You trade him before giving him that contract.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

He won't because he isn't a generational player. McDavid made Maroon a 30 goal scorer. He went to a conference final. Are you expecting Matthews to win Art Ross Trophys? Hart Trophys? Hell, even a rocket. Something to at least have a conversation.

I think he's young enough and has the potential to be an Art Ross/Rocket trophy winner. see if he can stay healthy and consistent enough for that. kid can score at a unreal pace. just he can slow down at an unreal pace as well

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think he's young enough and has the potential to be an Art Ross/Rocket trophy winner. see if he can stay healthy and consistent enough for that. kid can score at a unreal pace. just he can slow down at an unreal pace as well

If he stays healthy and Babs gives him same minutes of other top players then he will be top 3 every year in scoring. To be top of top we need to give him ideal wingers. One being a big guy who can forecheck and get more pucks for him. And second guy a Marner/Bracco type who can make unreal feeds and give/gos with him all over ice.
AJ, Kappy and Willy are not the best partners for Matty. They just do not fit his game hand and glove.

 

[Kurtz]

I'm not just assuming randomly. I have data and market trends to backup my logic. Where's you logic to counter what I'm saying. So far your only counters are "it's not guaranteed" and your illogical assumptions that AGMs are privy to tv rights negotiations.

Don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe I purposely kept the percentage the same. Possibly a small increase to account for additional accolades he would expect to get. There's no reason to think he takes a discount because nobody on our team does.

I actually look at everything from all angles. That's the point. I don't see the argument on the other side. That's what I'm trying to pull out of you. If we're in a court of law you're just screaming I object, but don't have any evidence to prove your case.

Two things:

One, your statement that nobody on our team takes a discount is demonstrably false: JT passed up a $13 mil/season in San Jose to sign for $11 mil/season here. You could also argue that Kadri and Rielly could have held out for a lot more than they got.

Two, your prediction of Marner getting $11.6 is based solely on a comparison with Matthews. If we were to be more realistic, and invoke other salaries across the league, Marner's contract value would dip well-below that figure.

I'm willing to make a wager with you that Mitch's deal will be for around $10 mil* and won't touch Matthew's numbers.

* Unless it's an unlikely offer-sheet.

 

[Erndog]

I'm willing to make a wager with you that Mitch's deal will be for around $10 mil* and won't touch Matthew's numbers.

* Unless it's an unlikely offer-sheet.

Witness.

 

[Trapper]

So true.

Eventually we will reach a point of having to pick your stars.

You can only pick Moore for Brown so long.
Now we are already moving to pick Kadri or Johnsson/Kapanen.

Once Rielly/Andersen need new deals, and if the guys people want to plug in play well, you will have to choose your stars if you want a competent 16-18 guys.

 

[Menzinger]

Again you're moving things up. Do you think the AGM for the Leafs is on conversations between Bettman and NBC regarding tv rights? Do you think he's in on the side bar off the record chats with DAZN, ESPN, and a host of other interested parties? The answer is no. He has no more insight on that than I do. And I could make an argument based on who I talk to about this topic that I have a better idea of where this will all end up. Do I know 100%? But the AGMs don't know any better than I do.

Curious to see your list of risks to drive down the cap in five years.

I'm willing to wager a dollar you weren't even capable of typing this out with a straight face.

Pure nonsense

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

He won't because he isn't a generational player. McDavid made Maroon a 30 goal scorer. He went to a conference final. Are you expecting Matthews to win Art Ross Trophys? Hart Trophys? Hell, even a rocket. Something to at least have a conversation.

I expect Matthews to win a Rocket. Just needs health.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Marchement - Matthews - Marner