Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Notsince67]

Kane's post elc contract was about 10% of the cap 9m for 5years is about right for marner

Totally agree in a vacuum. The overpayments to Matthews and Nylander puts a wrench in it though. Maybe we get lucky and he agrees to a reduced term.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I didnt bring up moving players for assets. I merely pointed out a far more obvious choice than moving Marner. The direct comparisons make the choice far more obvious.

There's no reason to move Marner or Nylander at all, so why even compare? There's a 100 moves you can make before it comes to touching your core.

Sample below. Boston's lineup throughout the playoffs have changed various times but their bottom-6 is insanely cheap and basically full of nobodys before this year. We have many big energy bottom-6 Fs to promote within, and we can also sign guys like Acciari. Rosen-Lilijegren were incredible with the Marlies as the top pairing shutdown guys, let's make the transition to the Leafs bottom pairing.

CAP SPENT: ~ 74-75 mill
Moore (1) - Matthews (11.6) - Nylander (6.9)
Hyman (2.1) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10)
Engvall (1) - Kadri (4.5) - Bracco (1)
Marchment (1) - Mueller (1) - Acciari (1) === Big energy line

Rielly (5) - Dermott* (1)
Muzzin (4.5) - McQuaid (3)
Rosen (1) - Lilijegren (1)

Andersen (5)
Backup (1)


I'm a firm believer that coaches need to trust their new players. Babcock's hand was forced in 2016, but half our team were rookies then and it still worked out. Countless teams across the league trust their young players and why can't we? We don't need to spend so much money on the bottom-6. Works for other successful teams as well.

 

[ULF_55]

Whats all this talk about possibly marner getting traded. If marner gets traded, im done with the leafs and hockey... hes our best player, if u trade him thats the dumbest **** ever

It has been done before and the Leafs survived.

Tavares was a franchise center before he arrived in Toronto. He's a veteran star center with a .94 PPG career.

Obviously, Marner is a very good player and additionally it is obvious playing with Tavares had good results for Marners's production.
Marner improved Tavares season career high by 2 points, Marner's points increaded by 25 points.

It was good for both, good for the team (regular season), and hopefully gets to continue next year.

Marner should get a Kucherov deal with the regular Leafs overpay of about 8%.

 

[Stephen]

1. You get paid Kane money for having good comparables against him...he does.
2. Where were the other elite players as far as winning games during the playoffs?
3.You don't move the best player on the team to pay lesser players. That is just stupid.
4. Comparing the value of Marner to Werenski is really dumb. He gets paid less because he isn't anywhere near as good.

If you want bang for the buck you take a guy with a salary cap of 7MM with a career high of 61 points with zero game winning goals all season and you move him. Why? because when a guy who scores 94 points, plays the power play and is showing improvement rather than regression makes as much cap/points, you have a salary of 10.79MM just on points alone on a linear $$/point scale. That is a complete bargain considering you pay elite players more per point than just good ones.
If you want to keep Nylander over Marner, you are either cognitively slow or you are not a leaf fan.[/
QUOTE]

I'm going to put on my hard line negotiator hat in response:

1) Marner doesn't have Kane comparables. Patrick Kane earned that contract on the back of his third Stanley Cup win for Chicago. Furthermore, he has a Conn Smythe, Art Ross, Calder, Hart and Lindsay Trophy. Marner had one high scoring season playing with John Tavares and didn't even finish top 10 in NHL scoring, blocked a couple of shots in the playoffs and has a lot of annoying commercials on TV. For the record, Kane outscored Marner by 16 points this year.

2) Matthews scored at a consistent clip, Tavares underachieved in his match up role vs Bergeron who makes half his salary. That doesn't really build any case for Marner making uber money.

3) Marner isn't our best player and shouldn't be our best player. He's a consistent high producer and can combine skill level and effort, but outside of Patrick Kane (and maybe Brad Marchand this year), what small winger can actually be the foundation of a Stanley Cup winner? That type of player usually slots behind a big franchise center or two franchise centers, franchise number one defenseman and elite goalie.

4) Just using Werenski as an example of a big franchise defenseman in the making. That type of player looks less glamorous, but actually controls the game to a level a franchise winger does not, and will typically command less money than a star forward.

5) I'm happy you brought up Nylander. Nylander is 23 years old and has been about a 61 point player before this year's trainwreck. So it's reasonable to assume he'll be able to get back to those numbers making $6.9 million a year. If you compare that salary to what Patrick Marleau was brought in for and production that everyone was okay with his first year (47 points).

Nylander is going to a) play himself back into the core and be paid an upper middle class NHL salary with room to be elite or b) continue to struggle and will play himself out of the core.

This is a much more reasonable situation than if Marner wants $11 million. He's not the best winger in the game. He's not the best Toronto Maple Leaf.

 

[ULF_55]

IMO, all things considered, he's the last guy they would trade.

Why do you think that?

Rielly, Matthews, Tavares, Andersen would be the last players they would trade all more important pieces than Marner.

 

[Stephen]

Whats all this talk about possibly marner getting traded. If marner gets traded, im done with the leafs and hockey... hes our best player, if u trade him thats the dumbest **** ever

If he prices himself at a rate that suggests he's interested in a hometown markup, it's the Leafs decision to decide if they want to pay that and cripple the program or to move on from the player and adjust their building strategy with oodles of assets at their disposal.

 

[Mess]

Marner should get a Kucherov deal with the regular Leafs overpay of about 8%.

Kucherov $9.5 mil + 10% the Leaf bonus (+950k) = $10.45 mil expected Marner contract.

Kucherov the best winger in the game signed for 8 UFA years but Leafs offer top $ for only RFA cost controllable years mainly, and limited UFA years, so a 5-6 year deal seems to be reasonable expectations.

Best guess : $10.516 mil X 6 years = $63.10 mil total is the deal Leafs will agree to.

= $1.1 mil less than Matthews, but +1 extra year just so Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't all become unrestricted free agents at the same time in 5 years.

PS. Long-shot option that Marner offers Leafs the same Matthews $9 mil X 3 bridge deal to get over the cap crunch.

 

[Stephen]

Players don’t get paid based on team success though. Kane’s post-ELC contract is likely a floor for Marner. And rightfully so.

Kane made $6.3 million on his second contract.

 

[ToneDog]

IMO, all things considered, he's the last guy they would trade.

Love Mitch but I trade a small winger before a big franchise #1C. As good as Mitch is size matters some in the playoffs where there is little room on the ice and you are getting beat up night in and night out.

 

[PromisedLand]

Never?

Marner is just the latest in the list of me-first players to come up for contract renewal.

Maybe next year he'll show up in the playoffs.

I might get burned for this but next season making the playoffs isn't a given for the Leafs

Tampa
Florida
Montreal (a lot of cap space)
Boston
Sabres (expect them to be better)
Metro teams who will be fighting for the wildcard spot

Don't think next season is going to be a given that leafs will make the playoffs

 

[PromisedLand]

There's no reason to move Marner or Nylander at all, so why even compare? There's a 100 moves you can make before it comes to touching your core.

Sample below. Boston's lineup throughout the playoffs have changed various times but their bottom-6 is insanely cheap and basically full of nobodys before this year. We have many big energy bottom-6 Fs to promote within, and we can also sign guys like Acciari. Rosen-Lilijegren were incredible with the Marlies as the top pairing shutdown guys, let's make the transition to the Leafs bottom pairing.

CAP SPENT: ~ 74-75 mill
Moore (1) - Matthews (11.6) - Nylander (6.9)
Hyman (2.1) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10)
Engvall (1) - Kadri (4.5) - Bracco (1)
Marchment (1) - Mueller (1) - Acciari (1) === Big energy line

Rielly (5) - Dermott* (1)
Muzzin (4.5) - McQuaid (3)
Rosen (1) - Lilijegren (1)

Andersen (5)
Backup (1)



I'm a firm believer that coaches need to trust their new players. Babcock's hand was forced in 2016, but half our team were rookies then and it still worked out. Countless teams across the league trust their young players and why can't we? We don't need to spend so much money on the bottom-6. Works for other successful teams as well.

Marleau and Zaitsev are not going to be easily moved

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Kane made $6.3 million on his second contract.

I mean in cap%. Kane’s contract is a floor.

 

[DcW]

Marner shouldn't be paid more than Stone.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm going to put on my hard line negotiator hat in response:

1) Marner doesn't have Kane comparables. Patrick Kane earned that contract on the back of his third Stanley Cup win for Chicago. Furthermore, he has a Conn Smythe, Art Ross, Calder, Hart and Lindsay Trophy. Marner had one high scoring season playing with John Tavares and didn't even finish top 10 in NHL scoring, blocked a couple of shots in the playoffs and has a lot of annoying commercials on TV. For the record, Kane outscored Marner by 16 points this year.

2) Matthews scored at a consistent clip, Tavares underachieved in his match up role vs Bergeron who makes half his salary. That doesn't really build any case for Marner making uber money.

3) Marner isn't our best player and shouldn't be our best player. He's a consistent high producer and can combine skill level and effort, but outside of Patrick Kane (and maybe Brad Marchand this year), what small winger can actually be the foundation of a Stanley Cup winner? That type of player usually slots behind a big franchise center or two franchise centers, franchise number one defenseman and elite goalie.

4) Just using Werenski as an example of a big franchise defenseman in the making. That type of player looks less glamorous, but actually controls the game to a level a franchise winger does not, and will typically command less money than a star forward.

5) I'm happy you brought up Nylander. Nylander is 23 years old and has been about a 61 point player before this year's trainwreck. So it's reasonable to assume he'll be able to get back to those numbers making $6.9 million a year. If you compare that salary to what Patrick Marleau was brought in for and production that everyone was okay with his first year (47 points).

Nylander is going to a) play himself back into the core and be paid an upper middle class NHL salary with room to be elite or b) continue to struggle and will play himself out of the core.

This is a much more reasonable situation than if Marner wants $11 million. He's not the best winger in the game. He's not the best Toronto Maple Leaf.

1. There is a 6 point difference between Marner and Kane's ELC years with Marner showing a much steeper curve. To say they aren't comparable is a lie. The final year ended with Marner at 94 and Kane at 88. If You look at Primary points, the differences are increased with Marner getting 78 and Kane Getting 63...a 15 point difference the other way. Primary points are far more predictive in future scoring than anything else. I am comparing ELC years comparisons.
2. Sticking to Primary points, Marner outscored Matthews in P1/60 (if you want to equalize games) and p/60. Marner is a far better 2 way player who plays the PK and QB's the PP
3. Marner is 6' Tall...2" taller than Kane and pretty average in height. He has grown since the draft. You are using old news.
4. I just don't know what to say about this. There is a reason why forwards are paid higher and it isn't because they don't control a game.
5. You didn't address the underlying numbers. If Nylander gets 7MM (don't now why people don't know how to round properly to the nearest 100k) @ 61 points, why does a more prolific scorer who is utilized in harder matchups and the PK get paid less per point? Nylander at his career high gets 115k/point.
Marner @ 94 points should make less per point (south of 10.79MM?) To be clear, I think that kind of salary for Marner is a huge overpay. That being said, if 7MM @61 points is fair then 11MM@94 points is also fair (the scale needs to be adjusted higher for higher scoring players.

 

[Notsince67]

Kucherov $9.5 mil + 10% the Leaf bonus (+950k) = $10.45 mil expected Marner contract.

Kucherov the best winger in the game signed for 8 UFA years but Leafs offer top $ for only RFA cost controllable years mainly, and limited UFA years, so a 5-6 year deal seems to be reasonable expectations.

Best guess : $10.516 mil X 6 years = $63.10 mil total is the deal Leafs will agree to.

= $1.1 mil less than Matthews, but +1 extra year just so Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't all become unrestricted free agents at the same time in 5 years.

PS. Long-shot option that Marner offers Leafs the same Matthews $9 mil X 3 bridge deal to get over the cap crunch.

100% agree with your guess. That means you won't be alone if you are wrong.

 

[PromisedLand]

it would be nice if marner contract is done ASAP and then one can plan on what to do with what remains on the cap with kappy/johnsson etc....

 

[BertCorbeau]

it would be nice if marner contract is done ASAP and then one can plan on what to do with what remains on the cap with kappy/johnsson etc....

I imagine that's the plan

I'm accepting that Marner will get around $10.5-$11 on an AAV basis .. I just hope it's a 7/8 year deal

 

[PromisedLand]

I imagine that's the plan

I'm accepting that Marner will get around $10.5-$11 on an AAV basis .. I just hope it's a 7/8 year deal

would be nice but with how dubas bent over for matthews only for 5 years; i doubt the best player on the team (marner) and the highest scorer on the team would sign for 7 or 8 years

 

[Stephen]

1. There is a 6 point difference between Marner and Kane's ELC years with Marner showing a much steeper curve. To say they aren't comparable is a lie. The final year ended with Marner at 94 and Kane at 88. If You look at Primary points, the differences are increased with Marner getting 78 and Kane Getting 63...a 15 point difference the other way. Primary points are far more predictive in future scoring than anything else. I am comparing ELC years comparisons.
2. Sticking to Primary points, Marner outscored Matthews in P1/60 (if you want to equalize games) and p/60. Marner is a far better 2 way player who plays the PK and QB's the PP
3. Marner is 6' Tall...2" taller than Kane and pretty average in height. He has grown since the draft. You are using old news.
4. I just don't know what to say about this. There is a reason why forwards are paid higher and it isn't because they don't control a game.
5. You didn't address the underlying numbers. If Nylander gets 7MM (don't now why people don't know how to round properly to the nearest 100k) @ 61 points, why does a more prolific scorer who is utilized in harder matchups and the PK get paid less per point? Nylander at his career high gets 115k/point.
Marner @ 94 points should make less per point (south of 10.79MM?) To be clear, I think that kind of salary for Marner is a huge overpay. That being said, if 7MM @61 points is fair then 11MM@94 points is also fair (the scale needs to be adjusted higher for higher scoring players.

Patrick Kane won a Stanley Cup in the final year of his ELC. That isn't some cherry on top of regular season glamour numbers. That's real world accomplishments Marner hasn't achieved yet. So it's hard to look at those two and say they are equal because Kane came out of the box as a big stage, clutch winner that our guy has not been yet.

In terms of "Patrick Kane money" I think people are referring to $10.5 million on his current cap hit as the upper limit of what's acceptable. If you're comparing Marner to Kane's second contract, he only made $6.3 million, which is 11.09% of the cap at the time. In today's cap percentage, assuming $83 million, that's about $9.2 million.

In summary, what would I pay Marner before I feel like we are getting to diminishing returns? Probably something in the $9.0-$10.0 million range.

PS. People need to calm down on the Nylander hate fest. His 2019 season was a total bust but for the first two years, but at $6.96 million, he definitely has the capability to be a pretty good contract a year or two down the line. And if not, get rid of him.

 

[yababy]

an atrocious contract like Dubas did with Matthews

Matthews contract was fine. It was Tavares contract that set up this disaster

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Patrick Kane won a Stanley Cup in the final year of his ELC. That isn't some cherry on top of regular season glamour numbers. That's real world accomplishments Marner hasn't achieved yet. So it's hard to look at those two and say they are equal because Kane came out of the box as a big stage, clutch winner that our guy has not been yet.

In terms of "Patrick Kane money" I think people are referring to $10.5 million on his current cap hit as the upper limit of what's acceptable. If you're comparing Marner to Kane's second contract, he only made $6.3 million, which is 11.09% of the cap at the time. In today's cap percentage, assuming $83 million, that's about $9.2 million.

In summary, what would I pay Marner before I feel like we are getting to diminishing returns? Probably something in the $9.0-$10.0 million range.

PS. People need to calm down on the Nylander hate fest. His 2019 season was a total bust but for the first two years, but at $6.96 million, he definitely has the capability to be a pretty good contract a year or two down the line. And if not, get rid of him.

I think around 9.5-10 on 5yrs sounds right. If you get him at Kane’s post-ELC deal in cap% imo that’s a big win.

 

[Menzinger]

Patrick Kane won a Stanley Cup in the final year of his ELC. That isn't some cherry on top of regular season glamour numbers. That's real world accomplishments Marner hasn't achieved yet. So it's hard to look at those two and say they are equal because Kane came out of the box as a big stage, clutch winner that our guy has not been yet.

In terms of "Patrick Kane money" I think people are referring to $10.5 million on his current cap hit as the upper limit of what's acceptable. If you're comparing Marner to Kane's second contract, he only made $6.3 million, which is 11.09% of the cap at the time. In today's cap percentage, assuming $83 million, that's about $9.2 million.

In summary, what would I pay Marner before I feel like we are getting to diminishing returns? Probably something in the $9.0-$10.0 million range.

PS. People need to calm down on the Nylander hate fest. His 2019 season was a total bust but for the first two years, but at $6.96 million, he definitely has the capability to be a pretty good contract a year or two down the line. And if not, get rid of him.

9.1-9.5 over 6 years seem like a perfect reasonable deal for both sides.

 

[HolyCrap]

Matthews contract was fine. It was Tavares contract that set up this disaster

LOL. Swing and miss. Tavares signed for a solid contract long term and is proven. Mathews was a RFA same with Willy. Leafs knew they would have to accommodate the cap for Tavares but it’s worth it.

 

[yababy]

yup. Clearly winning 2 out of the 3 games for the team couldn't carry them very far

Had a fantastic game 1 then disappeared and went -7 for the remainder of the series

 

[yababy]

LOL. Swing and miss. Tavares signed for a solid contract long term and is proven. Mathews was a RFA same with Willy. Leafs knew they would have to accommodate the cap for Tavares but it’s worth it.

Nothing wrong with the contract so long as you need a #1 centre and it doesn't blow your "team discount deal" up in your face.