Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Babcocks Marner]

Matthews gets 14% of the cap, McDavid at the time got 16.5% of the cap... hmm.

Matthews wanted 14mil for 8 years..... = %16.9 of the cap (next season)

So, yes, he wanted more than McDavid, no matter how you slice it. The only defense is "McDavid took less, so it's ok"
Then those same people in another thread.... "What about Kuch, what about Pasta????????????"

5 years brought it down to 11.6, as lower years always bring contracts down.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Matthews wanted 14mil for 8 years..... = %16.9 of the cap (next season)

So, yes, he wanted more than McDavid, no matter how you slice it. The only defense is "McDavid took less, so it's ok"
Then those same people in another thread.... "What about Kuch, what about Pasta????????????"

5 years brought it down to 11.6, as lower years always bring contracts down.

Also works out to 8.7m/5 for Eichel........ just using roughly the same math Matthews camp did.

 

[The CyNick]

Matthews wanted 14mil for 8 years..... = %16.9 of the cap (next season)

So, yes, he wanted more than McDavid, no matter how you slice it. The only defense is "McDavid took less, so it's ok"
Then those same people in another thread.... "What about Kuch, what about Pasta????????????"

5 years brought it down to 11.6, as lower years always bring contracts down.

A good GM would laugh at that and tell him to take a lap and enjoy the Phoenix weather for a season while he sits by his pool.

This is the problem when the GM is perceived as weak. Agents wouldn't try that nonsense with Lou.

 

[Stamkos4life]

So trade a high value asset at a significant loss so we can give another player miles more money than he deserves

That's some plan

Is it just Marner you want to significantly overpay or are there other guys as well? Also why is it always a decision between Nylander and Marner? Last I looked there were more than two players on the team that could be moved for cap reasons

Nylander is not currently a high value asset. 7 goals and 27 points are not high value.

What amount, in your opinion, does "significantly overpay" marner mean?

 

[Lauro]

A good GM would laugh at that and tell him to take a lap and enjoy the Phoenix weather for a season while he sits by his pool.

This is the problem when the GM is perceived as weak. Agents wouldn't try that nonsense with Lou.

Yeah, I fondly remember strong Lou with his great work on the contracts for Marleau and Zaitsev.

 

[The CyNick]

Yeah, I fondly remember strong Lou with his great work on the contracts for Marleau and Zaitsev.

Zaitsev was given too much term, but could be easily traded and played well in the playoffs. I didn't like the deal myself and said as much at the time. The one mistake Lou made while here. Really the only one.

Marleau got what he deserved. He would have stayed in SJ if we only offered a two year deal. The three years was necessary to bring him over. Hes averaged over 20 goals since being here. But more than anything he was brought in to be a mentor to the young core. That value can't be measured but when you hear the young players talk you quickly see he's brought a lot to the room. It's natural to assume this coming year won't be great, but that's the nature of signing older players.

If you want to isolate this past year, the deal isn't as good, but then if that's your tactic, I'll counter with nylander making $1M for every goal scored this year. Which is likely the worst deal in hockey at this point.

 

[Stamkos4life]

The 2017 cup winning pens did it with Letang sitting in the press box on LTIR. Their list of highest paid players playing in position:

C
C
RW
G
RW
LW
LW

They had Ian Cole at $2.1m

I don’t know why you can’t just try and apply your own critical thinking to what team structure it takes to win a cup instead of constantly trying to compare ours to other teams. Lots of ways to do it bro, but you’re always wrong about your comparisons any way.

- but other teams that won don’t have a player making >$10m
- but other teams have a defenseman in their top 4 salaries

The only comparison you can make is that it is extremely rare for the wealth of prospects that came in all at the same time and did so well so young. Teams that have had that and can keep those great young players and make the playoffs for a decade tend to win multiple cups, even if those kids get paid their worth.

Exciting times ahead.

Granted letang was injured for the playoffs.

But your post further proves my point. The top 4 paid players on the pens when letang was injured was not 4 forwards. They had 3 forwards and 1 goalie.

So no team has gone forward with their 4 highest paid players as forwards, like I said. Maybe read a little more before going off on a tangent.

Usually players are paid based on actual results and winning.

Our situation reminds me of the Oilers when they signed rnh, hall and eberle to those 6 mil contracts before they had won anything. They thought they were being smart and ahead of the curve. Where did that take them?

Those who think the Nylander contract is good would probably be those that don't knee-jerk on streaks and relatively small samples. So no they wouldn't be the ones professing to trade Marner for D help after his 30 game bad stretch.

Maybe these "posters" who wanted marner traded after the first 30 games last season (that's where this started) dont exist then? I have seen no proof, just a claim by a poster trying to bring marner down.

You nylander defenders say it wasn't you and it wasnt me (a guy who doesn't think the nylander contract is fine). So who was it?

 

[Stamkos4life]

Why would those posters be the same ones that think Nylander contact is good lol? That doesn't make sense. Wouldn't the posters that think Nylander contact is good, be the ones who understand that a small sample size is an outlier and doesn't define a player? Meaning that, these posters would be the ones who understood that Marner's garbage 30 games were an outlier and he would return to his normal amazing self.

Tampa has Callahan, Gourde, Johnson, Palat, Miller EACH signed for ~5 mill each long-term (Callahan expires 2020). Their main stars of Stamkos and Kucherov make 18 mill total (which is good). They have 50 million comitted to their forward-group longterm WITHOUT Point. Add in 8-9 mill for Point... They have 58-59 million comitted to their forward group. Pay raises for Vaseileskly and Sergachev will come in 2020. They do have two top-D in McDonagh and Hedman, but they account for 14 mill. Tampa has a very good problem to have ... lots of talent with little money left to sign their remaining spots. They messed up by signing their non-core guys for such long-term contracts ... gives them no flexibility at all.

In comparison, Toronto has so much flexibility. They only have Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Kadri + Marner long-term. They have Johnsson, Kapanen, Bracco, Hyman, Moore who will be the fillers for much cheaper than the fillers on Tampa's team.

Just take a look at capfriendly.

As I mentioned in another post, maybe these "posters" who wanted marner traded after 30 games do not exist? I dont think the nylander contract is fine and at no point have I said/ thought that we need to trade marner.

I strongly disagree with your 2nd paragraph. I feel if this was put up as a poll on the mains we would lose handily.

 

[Stamkos4life]

No it will not be due to Nylander in any way shape or form. The Leafs have enough cap to sign Marner to a contract on par with Kucherov in terms of hit, but probably also over a significantly shorter term and extremely front loaded - so in other words - a much better contract than Kucherov signed. If Marner doesn't sign it is because he chose not to sign. That would probably be because of world class greed on Marner's part (along with his agent and father). It has nothing to do with Nylander at all.



Yeah - who knows. Who knows what the return would have been for Nylander. It is pure speculation. But, you must be 100% correct on your pure speculation. I have always been more than fine with the Leafs trading any of them. Of course it depends on real world situations not just hoping and wishing.

Imo we do not have the cap space to offer another forward 9+mil. Where as if we didn't have nylander's 7mil, I would have no problem giving marner 10.

Why do we have to give marner a better contract than kucherov to get him signed (shoter term, front loaded)? In a vacuum marner should be at about 9 mil tops. But when he sees nylander get more than players who have proven more (pasta), Matthew's getting more than McDavid when you take into account the extra years, why should marner settle for less?

Unless we severely lost in trading nylander I m fairly certain his replacement would've had a better season than 7 goals and 27 points. Also in the post season nylander had what 2 points? I remember him being at fault for 2 goals so basically he broke even but he didn't help us win by any means, even though he was playing against Boston's 3rd line.

You are correct though, it is speculation. Maybe trading nylander would've resulted in us missing the post season. But I doubt it.

We can easily offer Marner a "fair" 9.5-10M contract and as we all know Dubas isn't exactly tight when he's dishing out contracts

Iif Marner forces his way out with what could only be rediculous contract demands that's on him, that has literally nothing to do with anybody else on the team including Nylander, it's called "forcing your way out" for a reason

We don't know what was being offered for Nylander but sure if the deal was favorable I'd be onboard with trading him, now if Marner decides to be a prick in contract negotiations like Nylander and ask for more than he's worth are you onboard with trading him to?

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

The problem being the Salary Cap is not growing proportionate to team spending however.

This year it was $79.6 mil and its rumoured to go to ~$83 mil for next year = about $3 mil increase.

Marner moving from $875k to $10 mil is a +$9 mil cap hit..

Marner's new salary is expected to be 3 X the annual Salary cap increase, so it would theoretically take the next 3 years of cap increases to accommodate that. For Matthews it will take 4 more years after that. So mathematically it will take 7 years of on average +$3 mil Cap growth to absorb the Marner and Matthews increases on the books starting next year.

Based on Matthews at 5 year term and Marner expected at 5-6 years to follow suit overlapping deals, then their current deals will have officially expired before they're paid off in full.

So Gardiner isn't coming off the books this year and Marleau isn't coming off the year after?
Your math is ...interesting.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Granted letang was injured for the playoffs.

But your post further proves my point. The top 4 paid players on the pens when letang was injured was not 4 forwards. They had 3 forwards and 1 goalie.

I bet you those teams had at least 1 defenseman in their top 4 players.

Always moving the goal posts.

So no team has gone forward with their 4 highest paid players as forwards, like I said. Maybe read a little more before going off on a tangent.

Usually players are paid based on actual results and winning.

So you're problem is with our goaltending? Again, you haven't really said anything relevant to the Leafs, given all you're doing is comparing to other teams.

Usually players are paid based on actual results and winning.

Nylander, Matthews and soon Marner will have been paid for their actual results on the ice, salaries comparable to players who had similar results on the ice. So you're right. But I don't think you actually know how to measure results on the ice.

As far as winning, players do not get paid for/penalized for team results.

As I've said before, until you truly realize this, you will forever be confused about hockey player salaries all over the league.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Always moving the goal posts.



So you're problem is with our goaltending? Again, you haven't really said anything relevant to the Leafs, given all you're doing is comparing to other teams.



Nylander, Matthews and soon Marner will have been paid for their actual results on the ice, salaries comparable to players who had similar results on the ice. So you're right. But I don't think you actually know how to measure results on the ice.

As far as winning, players do not get paid for/penalized for team results.

As I've said before, until you truly realize this, you will forever be confused about hockey player salaries all over the league.

I'm moving the goal posts?

Since you are having trouble following along, I will lay it out for you so that you can understand.

A poster said:

"The last 5 stanley cup winners used approx (within 1-2%) the same cap amount on their top 4 players. This isn't a "never before tried strategy" it is literally the strategy all teams use (other then the very rare teams who win without it, maybe one in every 10 years)."

I countered with:

"I bet you those teams had at least 1 defenseman in their top 4 players.

We are going with all 4 forwards.

This has never been done before."

We were not referring to solely the time during the playoffs as you are trying to do. We were talking about how a team has their cap structured. The pens had letang in their top 4 highest paid players during that year. Therefore none of those teams have gone forward without a defenseman in their top 4.

Do you understand? Maybe before jumping into a conversation do a little research?

How do I have a problem with goaltending? Now you are just reaching.

You think I'm the confused one lol

Ps. Its amusing that you cut out the portion regarding our similarities to the Oilers of a couple years ago. But since it doesn't fit your narrative I guess it's best to ignore it.

 

[BlueForever75]

I'm moving the goal posts?

Since you are having trouble following along, I will lay it out for you so that you can understand.

A poster said:

"The last 5 stanley cup winners used approx (within 1-2%) the same cap amount on their top 4 players. This isn't a "never before tried strategy" it is literally the strategy all teams use (other then the very rare teams who win without it, maybe one in every 10 years)."

I countered with:

"I bet you those teams had at least 1 defenseman in their top 4 players.

We are going with all 4 forwards.

This has never been done before."

We were not referring to solely the time during the playoffs as you are trying to do. We were talking about how a team has their cap structured. The pens had letang in their top 4 highest paid players during that year. Therefore no team has gone forward without a defenseman in their top 4.

Do you understand? Maybe before jumping into a conversation do a little research?

How do I have a problem with goaltending? Now you are just reaching.

You think I'm the confused one lol

Ps. Its amusing that you cut out the portion regarding our similarities to the Oilers of a couple years ago. But since it doesn't fit your narrative I guess it's best to ignore it.

Sorry I don't follow, so your saying that for the Leafs to be successful they need to have a dman in their top 4 players paid against the cap?

So Reilly totally outplaying his contract getting paid 4 million per season but playing like players that are getting paid 11 million a season doesn't count? So if Reilly was paid 9-11 million a season like Doughty or Subban and we had one less forward being paid in the top 4 we would be more successful.

Sorry I don't understand either. To me it comes down to teams filling holes on a team that need filling. Regardless of their cap hit. Boston just made it the Stanley Cup finals with no dmen in their top 10 in salary on their team!!!!

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Under 9 million or you trade him

I love the lack of people who understand the math behind the salary cap.

Let me give you some math.

In the last 3 years, Marner is 22nd overall in total points. The only player the same age ahead of him is McDavid. The only player ahead of him that is +1 older is Pasta.

He has more points in the last 3 years than:
- Tarasenko (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Rantanen (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Matthews +19 points
- Monahan (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Kopitar (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Eichel +21 points
- Benn (roughly same games played) +23 points
- Point (roughly same games played) +26 points
- Voracek (roughly same games played) +12 points
- Aho (roughly same games played) +27 points
- Bergeron (close ppg) + 29 points

In the last 3 years, Marner is 12th in the NHL for p/60 (tied with Kane, just ahead of Hall)

In the last 3 years, Marner is 18th in the NHL for p/60 ES (almost tied with Mark Stone)

19 - 21 years old..... All ELC years............ already a top 25 NHLer in every way. Remember, those are all the last 3 years..... not just last year, the great year......

What's he worth?

 

[Morbo]

Yeah, I fondly remember strong Lou with his great work on the contracts for Marleau and Zaitsev.

aka the team's actual cap issues in real life

 

[Stamkos4life]

Sorry I don't follow, so your saying that for the Leafs to be successful they need to have a dman in their top 4 players paid against the cap?

So Reilly totally outplaying his contract getting paid 4 million per season but playing like players that are getting paid 11 million a season doesn't count? So if Reilly was paid 9-11 million a season like Doughty or Subban and we had one less forward being paid in the top 4 we would be more successful.

Sorry I don't understand either. To me it comes down to teams filling holes on a team that need filling. Regardless of their cap hit. Boston just made it the Stanley Cup finals with no dmen in their top 10 in salary on their team!!!!

No I am not saying that.

All I was pointing out is that none of the recent cup winners were going forward with their 4 highest paid players being forwards. That's it.

Who knows, maybe we found a hidden "cheat code" that will win us multiple cups. I have my doubts though.

You are correct about Boston, although krug is in their top 10. Boston did an awesome job getting their defense signed for so cheap.

 

[biotk]

Imo we do not have the cap space to offer another forward 9+mil. Where as if we didn't have nylander's 7mil, I would have no problem giving marner 10.

The same thing could be said about Tavares, Matthews, Marleau, Kadri, Zaitsev, Rielly and Freddie. Yet it is Nylander who you blame. Marner was also free to sign a contract for many months before Nylander ended up signing and he was free to sign before Matthews did. He didn't because, just like Nylander, he wanted much more than the Leafs wanted to pay, and he wanted to put pressure on the Leafs. Nylander did not get Marner into this situation. Marner did.

Why do we have to give marner a better contract than kucherov to get him signed (shoter term, front loaded)?

The Leafs don't have to. I was just showing that the Leafs still are in a position to give Marner a more favourable contract than Kucherov got. If that is not good enough it is because of greed and I hope they trade him.

In a vacuum marner should be at about 9 mil tops.

I agree. That has been my position. If the Leafs decide to go higher that is still their prerogative. They did that with Matthews. I think it is a bad contract. But I understand their reasoning.

But when he sees nylander get more than players who have proven more (pasta),

In reality Nylander's percentage of the cap was 8.76% which is lower than Pasta' 8.89%. It is arguable that Pasta had proven more than Nylander when each signed. And Pasta's contract is considered a steal. I would say that the chances are really good that Nylander's contract looks really good in 2 or 3 years. I don't think that it is close to as likely that Matthews' contract or Marner's probable contract will look really good in 2 or 3 years.

Matthew's getting more than McDavid when you take into account the extra years,

Maybe, maybe not. I have said before that the three players who signed really high 5-year contracts coming out of their ELCs (Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos) all signed 8+ years for their next contract all at lower cap hits.

why should marner settle for less?

Marner is free to do whatever he feels is in his best interest. The Leafs should do the same. If Marner values making completely absurd money more than making slightly less but still completely absurd money while playing out his childhood dream then all the power to him.

Unless we severely lost in trading nylander I m fairly certain his replacement would've had a better season than 7 goals and 27 points.

Yeah, and Dubas could have traded Nylander in the summer, and Nylander could have signed, gone to camp, played the whole year, with a coach who builds his confidence, plays him as a 1C and on the PP1 (on a team that actually plays the PP1 big minutes) and finished with 75 or 80 points, while the middling 2nd pair RHD D that Dubas managed to acquire could have been relegated to the 3rd pairing and become hated by fans because they gave up a young, 1st line PPG winger/center for him. And then when the Leafs lost in the first round to Boston everyone would have said if only we still had Nylander and called for Dubas' heads. No one knows, and Nylander's season could have gone completely differently under different situations.

 

[biotk]

What's he worth?

9M at the most.

 

[Stephen]

You're probably right, so perhaps the true Leafs casualty will be a non playoff year.

Something is going to have to give, because all decisions have consequences both good and bad. When you give your own players Matthews and Marner what amounts to +$20 mil combined raises, that in a salary cap world where every $1 counts has got to show up somewhere in the equation.

Perhaps Leafs management will need proof first it can't work, before they decide to balance the books differently reactively, when proactively might have been the better option from the start.

Time will tell now, and proof will be in the pudding, which in hockey terms will be the team results!!

I actually don’t mind a non playoff year if our management is smart and stays the course if worst came. Nashville has been a consistent contender but the year they skipped they grabbed Seth Jones.

Tampa has had some down years interspersed in their contending window and walked away trading guys like Boyle to us for high picks and drafting Drouin and Vasilevskiy.

Sometimes you need to take a step back to refresh and take a leap forward.

 

[Fogelhund]

An interesting site, that has estimated player contracts. The first link is the explanation, the second, the actual data.

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason



Their math, has Marner at 8 years, $9.7 mil.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

An interesting site, that has estimated player contracts. The first link is the explanation, the second, the actual data.

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason



Their math, has Marner at 8 years, $9.7 mil.

Also has Skinner making more than Point.......

Anyone paying skinner 8.5........... ouch.

Aho at 10+???? Say what???

*EDIT* Only player on that list to have more points in the last 3 years than Marner..... Panarin.

Only person to have more points on that list last year..... Noooobody.

 

[The CyNick]

Let me give you some math.

In the last 3 years, Marner is 22nd overall in total points. The only player the same age ahead of him is McDavid. The only player ahead of him that is +1 older is Pasta.

He has more points in the last 3 years than:
- Tarasenko (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Rantanen (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Matthews +19 points
- Monahan (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Kopitar (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Eichel +21 points
- Benn (roughly same games played) +23 points
- Point (roughly same games played) +26 points
- Voracek (roughly same games played) +12 points
- Aho (roughly same games played) +27 points
- Bergeron (close ppg) + 29 points

In the last 3 years, Marner is 12th in the NHL for p/60 (tied with Kane, just ahead of Hall)

In the last 3 years, Marner is 18th in the NHL for p/60 ES (almost tied with Mark Stone)

19 - 21 years old..... All ELC years............ already a top 25 NHLer in every way. Remember, those are all the last 3 years..... not just last year, the great year......

What's he worth?

I'm scared now. Our GM might give him $15M per on a 4 year deal

 

[Notsince67]

Let me give you some math.

In the last 3 years, Marner is 22nd overall in total points. The only player the same age ahead of him is McDavid. The only player ahead of him that is +1 older is Pasta.

He has more points in the last 3 years than:
- Tarasenko (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Rantanen (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Matthews +19 points
- Monahan (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Kopitar (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Eichel +21 points
- Benn (roughly same games played) +23 points
- Point (roughly same games played) +26 points
- Voracek (roughly same games played) +12 points
- Aho (roughly same games played) +27 points
- Bergeron (close ppg) + 29 points

In the last 3 years, Marner is 12th in the NHL for p/60 (tied with Kane, just ahead of Hall)

In the last 3 years, Marner is 18th in the NHL for p/60 ES (almost tied with Mark Stone)

19 - 21 years old..... All ELC years............ already a top 25 NHLer in every way. Remember, those are all the last 3 years..... not just last year, the great year......

What's he worth?

Cap aside, his relative value continues to be capped by folks here who love to project Nylanders potential but will never project Marner higher than what he has accomplished. Fact is that he is heads above where Kucherov was at his age. Looking at p/60 by excluding all the PK time which Kucherov doesn't do and skews the oval number negatively against marner, Marner is currently at 3.57 ppg. When Kucherov signed his contract, he was at 3.79 which he accomplished 3 years older and 2 seasons more. Kucherov after season 3 was 2.87 ppg. Lets forget about the fact that contracts in Tampa appear to be 2-3MM lower for that range of contracts than other taxed jurisdictions. Lets forget about penalty kill duties. Lets forget RFA vs UFA contracts. If you forward look 4 years ahead (half of an 8 year deal), it is likely that Marner will exceed Kutcherov by that point. I can go back to other years but it is obvious that marner at his age was a step above kucherov at that age. I would put hard dollars down that Marner will have more combined points in the next 8 years than Kucherov. I would rather have Mitch Marner for the next 8 years than Kucherov period.

To answer your question...he is worth a lot more than the meat heads who think that under 9MM is good enough.

 

[Notsince67]

An interesting site, that has estimated player contracts. The first link is the explanation, the second, the actual data.

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason



Their math, has Marner at 8 years, $9.7 mil.

I've seen these projections and they often don't make sense. Notice how Matthews is conveniently missing. Probably because he breaks the mold.

 

[Mess]

So Gardiner isn't coming off the books this year and Marleau isn't coming off the year after?
Your math is ...interesting.

That is how a Marner annual $9 mil raise should look like in how it impacts the roster.

2019-20 season +$9 mil raise : = +$3 mil cap increase - Gardiner (@$4 mil) - Hainsey (@$3 mil) + Rosen ($925k) = cap compliant
2120-21 season +$9 mil raise: = + $3 mil cap increase - Marleau ($6.25 mil) + Marlie forward = cap compliant
2021-22 season +$9 mil raise := +$3 mil cap increase - Kadri (@4.5 mil) etc ..

Put now remember no double dipping and is the annual cap increase is used for Marner's raise it can't be used also for Matthews increase nor could dropping Gardiner and Marleau over the next 2 years. Neither can that Cap increase go to resigning Kapanen nor AJ either ect.. We need different and knew free cap space to accommodate those raises.