Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[Deebo]

That is how a Marner annual $9 mil raise should look like in how it impacts the roster.

2019-20 season +$9 mil raise : = +$3 mil cap increase - Gardiner (@$4 mil) - Hainsey (@$3 mil) + Rosen ($925k) = cap compliant
2120-21 season +$9 mil raise: = + $3 mil cap increase - Marleau ($6.25 mil) + Marlie forward = cap compliant
2021-22 season +$9 mil raise := +$3 mil cap increase - Kadri (@4.5 mil) etc ..

Put now remember no double dipping and is the annual cap increase is used for Marner's raise it can't be used also for Matthews increase nor could dropping Gardiner and Marleau over the next 2 years. Neither can that Cap increase go to resigning Kapanen nor AJ either ect.. We need different and knew free cap space to accommodate those raises.

You're forgetting being able to use LTIR on Horton and bonus overages for 2019-20 which opens up another 7.85 mil next year.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

There were PLENTY of us none “blue and white” glasses objective fans that were SCREAMING that Nylander’s isn’t half the player Pastrnak is.

You believing that you're an objective fan is the biggest example of personal truths there is.

You wouldn't know an objective fan if you ran them over in your truck. Good grief.

 

[Stamkos4life]

The same thing could be said about Tavares, Matthews, Marleau, Kadri, Zaitsev, Rielly and Freddie. Yet it is Nylander who you blame. Marner was also free to sign a contract for many months before Nylander ended up signing and he was free to sign before Matthews did. He didn't because, just like Nylander, he wanted much more than the Leafs wanted to pay, and he wanted to put pressure on the Leafs. Nylander did not get Marner into this situation. Marner did.



The Leafs don't have to. I was just showing that the Leafs still are in a position to give Marner a more favourable contract than Kucherov got. If that is not good enough it is because of greed and I hope they trade him.



I agree. That has been my position. If the Leafs decide to go higher that is still their prerogative. They did that with Matthews. I think it is a bad contract. But I understand their reasoning.



In reality Nylander's percentage of the cap was 8.76% which is lower than Pasta' 8.89%. It is arguable that Pasta had proven more than Nylander when each signed. And Pasta's contract is considered a steal. I would say that the chances are really good that Nylander's contract looks really good in 2 or 3 years. I don't think that it is close to as likely that Matthews' contract or Marner's probable contract will look really good in 2 or 3 years.



Maybe, maybe not. I have said before that the three players who signed really high 5-year contracts coming out of their ELCs (Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos) all signed 8+ years for their next contract all at lower cap hits.



Marner is free to do whatever he feels is in his best interest. The Leafs should do the same. If Marner values making completely absurd money more than making slightly less but still completely absurd money while playing out his childhood dream then all the power to him.



Yeah, and Dubas could have traded Nylander in the summer, and Nylander could have signed, gone to camp, played the whole year, with a coach who builds his confidence, plays him as a 1C and on the PP1 (on a team that actually plays the PP1 big minutes) and finished with 75 or 80 points, while the middling 2nd pair RHD D that Dubas managed to acquire could have been relegated to the 3rd pairing and become hated by fans because they gave up a young, 1st line PPG winger/center for him. And then when the Leafs lost in the first round to Boston everyone would have said if only we still had Nylander and called for Dubas' heads. No one knows, and Nylander's season could have gone completely differently under different situations.

Tavares, matthews, kadri, Andy and rielly all play a different position so they are irrelevant. Marleau plays the same position but he's only signed for 1 more year and hed be hard to get rid of at this point.

Yes marner was free to sign a contract at any point but why would he if they are low balling him? He knew he was going to play with jt for the season so he gambled on himself and won. Dubas should've signed him last summer but here we are.

I am just trying to be consistent. If the leafs think nylander and matthews are worth more than their comparables, why is marner left out? He's the one who has produced the most.

One players high was 22 goals and 61 points. The other was 34 goals and 70 points in only 75 games. I dont know what's to argue when it comes to who had proven more.

I guess we'll see regarding Matthews next contract. It's a bit worrisome that he has a nmc for his final year meaning he can walk for nothing if he decides. Just a bad contract all around.

So basically your worst case scenario for having traded nylander last offseason is that we would be in the same position we are right now, out of the playoffs in the first round.

Where as the best case scenario for trading him would be that we beat the Bruins in the first round and maybe, in the finals.

I know which I'd prefer to try.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I'm moving the goal posts?

Since you are having trouble following along, I will lay it out for you so that you can understand.

A poster said:

"The last 5 stanley cup winners used approx (within 1-2%) the same cap amount on their top 4 players. This isn't a "never before tried strategy" it is literally the strategy all teams use (other then the very rare teams who win without it, maybe one in every 10 years)."

I countered with:

"I bet you those teams had at least 1 defenseman in their top 4 players.

We are going with all 4 forwards.

This has never been done before."

We were not referring to solely the time during the playoffs as you are trying to do. We were talking about how a team has their cap structured. The pens had letang in their top 4 highest paid players during that year. Therefore none of those teams have gone forward without a defenseman in their top 4.

Do you understand? Maybe before jumping into a conversation do a little research?

How do I have a problem with goaltending? Now you are just reaching.

You think I'm the confused one lol

Ps. Its amusing that you cut out the portion regarding our similarities to the Oilers of a couple years ago. But since it doesn't fit your narrative I guess it's best to ignore it.

If goaltending was not a problem then it would not matter that we don’t have a goaltender in a top-4 salary range. I guess you feel we should just go ahead and pay a defender in our top 4 now just to fit in with your idea of what a cap structure should look like, despite the fact that we have a defender who plays at a top 4 level on our team.

Again, you’re way to involved in trying to look at other teams to prove that our cap structure is bad. I guess Shanahan nailed it when he said it’s a copycat league. But none of your “but no one else did” arguments are even any good.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

I've seen these projections and they often don't make sense. Notice how Matthews is conveniently missing. Probably because he breaks the mold.

Isn't he missing because he's not a free agent? I mean that seems pretty clear, especially if you've already seen these?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding?

 

[MLSE]

Matthews wanted 14mil for 8 years..... = %16.9 of the cap (next season)

So, yes, he wanted more than McDavid, no matter how you slice it. The only defense is "McDavid took less, so it's ok"
Then those same people in another thread.... "What about Kuch, what about Pasta????????????"

5 years brought it down to 11.6, as lower years always bring contracts down.

He didnt take more which is what was said.

Also, 14% over 5 years for Matthews position and goal scoring is not crazy btw.

 

[MLSE]

Sorry I don't follow, so your saying that for the Leafs to be successful they need to have a dman in their top 4 players paid against the cap?

So Reilly totally outplaying his contract getting paid 4 million per season but playing like players that are getting paid 11 million a season doesn't count? So if Reilly was paid 9-11 million a season like Doughty or Subban and we had one less forward being paid in the top 4 we would be more successful.

Sorry I don't understand either. To me it comes down to teams filling holes on a team that need filling. Regardless of their cap hit. Boston just made it the Stanley Cup finals with no dmen in their top 10 in salary on their team!!!!

How many years was he given top line minutes?

Also last year is more of a projection into his years coming up more than his rookie and sophomore seasons.

Patrick Kane coming out of the ELC is your best comparison. 5 years just over 9 million is what youre looking at. Closer to 11 for 8 years.

 

[egd27]

You're forgetting being able to use LTIR on Horton and bonus overages for 2019-20 which opens up another 7.85 mil next year.

How do you think Horton's contract "opens up" additional cap?

 

[Stamkos4life]

If goaltending was not a problem then it would not matter that we don’t have a goaltender in a top-4 salary range. I guess you feel we should just go ahead and pay a defender in our top 4 now just to fit in with your idea of what a cap structure should look like, despite the fact that we have a defender who plays at a top 4 level on our team.

Again, you’re way to involved in trying to look at other teams to prove that our cap structure is bad. I guess Shanahan nailed it when he said it’s a copycat league. But none of your “but no one else did” arguments are even any good.

You just keep coming back for more eh?

Where did I say it's a problem that we dont have our goalie in the top 4 paid players? What's with you and making things up?

You keep telling me I'm wrong and that my opinions are no good. Yet you're the one clearly wrong and cant follow a conversation.

If that's all you got then once again, stop messaging me.

 

[hamzarocks]

How do you think Horton's contract "opens up" additional cap?

Think the past 3 seasons we have not put Horton on LTIR but took his cap and let it count against the salary cap. We did this I think due to having placed him LTIR would have shifted the rookie bonuses that matthews/marner/nylander earned to this season which would have further screwed our cap for 19/20. We get 2ish million back from no outstanding rookies who'll earn the rookie bonuses this season. Also during the regular season we get to exceed the salary cap by equal to Horton's cap hit. We get to utilize that cap space to sign our players.

 

[Deebo]

How do you think Horton's contract "opens up" additional cap?

They couldn't use LTIR on him last year because of possible performance bonuses to Marner and Matthews, they won't have to worry about that this in 2019/20 so they can use LTIR on him for the full year.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Think the past 3 seasons we have not put Horton on LTIR but took his cap and let it count against the salary cap. We did this I think due to having placed him LTIR would have shifted the rookie bonuses that matthews/marner/nylander earned to this season which would have further screwed our cap for 19/20. We get 2ish million back from no outstanding rookies who'll earn the rookie bonuses this season. Also during the regular season we get to exceed the salary cap by equal to Horton's cap hit. We get to utilize that cap space to sign our players.

After looking at CapFriendly, I noticed that most of the rookie ELCs that we talk about making the leap all have performance bonuses built in to their contracts e.g., Liljegren, Sandin, Bracco.

So, we'd have to set aside some room to accommodate the bonuses in 2020-21 if these rookie/ELCs make the leap in 2019-20.

 

[hamzarocks]

After looking at CapFriendly, I noticed that most of the rookie ELCs that we talk about making the leap all have performance bonuses built in to their contracts e.g., Liljegren, Sandin, Bracco.

So, we'd have to set aside some room to accommodate the bonuses in 2020-21 if these rookie/ELCs make the leap in 2019-20.

Oh damn didnt know those players had performance bonuses? Thought Lou was really stingy on giving those out and would not have given them to a mid 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick. Your right that we will need to put aside some cap for the bonuses.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Oh damn didnt know those players had performance bonuses? Thought Lou was really stingy on giving those out and would not have given them to a mid 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick. Your right that we will need to put aside some cap for the bonuses.

No worries. I look at CapFriendly a lot.

One thing for sure is we definitely have some cap crunch challenges this summer. There's going to be some cutting of players in the middle of our lineup for sure and some vacancies on our blueline to fill most likely. That's the important roster depth that we so often talk about barring having several of our low cost replacements really stepping up.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You just keep coming back for more eh?

Where did I say it's a problem that we dont have our goalie in the top 4 paid players? What's with you and making things up?

You keep telling me I'm wrong and that my opinions are no good. Yet you're the one clearly wrong and cant follow a conversation.

If that's all you got then once again, stop messaging me.

You said pens were better off because they had a goalie in their top 4

 

[Menzinger]

So trade a high value asset at a significant loss so we can give another player miles more money than he deserves

That's some plan

Is it just Marner you want to significantly overpay or are there other guys as well? Also why is it always a decision between Nylander and Marner? Last I looked there were more than two players on the team that could be moved for cap reasons

It's a fairly warped sense of logic.

Trading a good asset just to clear space to give another player an awful contract doesn't make a lick of sense. Fact is, if Marner agrees to sign a contra t in line with his clear comparables thr Leafs have no final cap issues with some minor maneuvering.

 

[Menzinger]

What do you think Matthews deal will look like in dollars after the five years is up? If he signs at $12.5 per, then we come out ahead.

More likely he's in the $16-17M range. Then it's on average higher than McDavid. And it could be more then that. Depends how crazy US TV rights negotiations get.

So we're supposed to treat your speculation as fact?

 

[Menzinger]

A good GM would laugh at that and tell him to take a lap and enjoy the Phoenix weather for a season while he sits by his pool.

This is the problem when the GM is perceived as weak. Agents wouldn't try that nonsense with Lou.

Is that what Lou did to Zaitsev? He had an asset he couldn't force to sign, and caved completely to his demands.

You cant hardball a talent like Matthew's. I get that it's been a few decades since Leafs fans have had to deal with this situation, but it's not that hard to grasp

 

[Fakejake51]

Oh damn didnt know those players had performance bonuses? Thought Lou was really stingy on giving those out and would not have given them to a mid 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick. Your right that we will need to put aside some cap for the bonuses.

Plus this is Braccos last ELC year. Making him IMO a prime guy to move.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

He didnt take more which is what was said.

Also, 14% over 5 years for Matthews position and goal scoring is not crazy btw.

I would disagree. I think the 5 year aspect makes it crappy.

A list of players higher than Matthews p/60 over 3 years

Kuch 11.45% (8 years)
Stamkos 11.64% (8 years)
Malkin 13.8% (8 years)
Mcdavid 15.7% (8 years)
Marchand 8.2% (8 years)
Crosby 13.5% (8++++++ years)
Pastrnak 8.9% (6 years)
Kessel 11.6% (8 years)
Johnny Hockey 9.2% (6 years)
Matthews 14% (5 years)

Not one signed for 5 or under, only 2/9 signed for 6 years..... and 7/9 signed for 8 years......

Gets more than Crosby and Malkin out of ELC for way less years..... not good. I love Matthews, but he isn't Crosby yet..... he can be, just not yet.

 

[Notsince67]

Isn't he missing because he's not a free agent? I mean that seems pretty clear, especially if you've already seen these?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding?

No. The spreadsheet reflects players whose contract is up whether they are signed to a new one or not
Edit....notice there is an actual signed field

 

[A1LeafNation]

I would disagree. I think the 5 year aspect makes it crappy.

A list of players higher than Matthews p/60 over 3 years

Kuch 11.45% (8 years)
Stamkos 11.64% (8 years)
Malkin 13.8% (8 years)
Mcdavid 15.7% (8 years)
Marchand 8.2% (8 years)
Crosby 13.5% (8++++++ years)
Pastrnak 8.9% (6 years)
Kessel 11.6% (8 years)
Johnny Hockey 9.2% (6 years)
Matthews 14% (5 years)

Not one signed for 5 or under, only 2/9 signed for 6 years..... and 7/9 signed for 8 years......

Gets more than Crosby and Malkin out of ELC for way less years..... not good. I love Matthews, but he isn't Crosby yet..... he can be, just not yet.

Why are you comparing 2nd contracts to 3rd contracts?

 

[The CyNick]

So we're supposed to treat your speculation as fact?

Sorry, what speculation? That players tie their salary demands to the cap? I'm comfortable on that limb.

That TV rights fees for sports properties continue to increase year over year and that the current US deal is grossly undervalued compared to other recent deals? Another limb I'm willing to do a jig on.

Sorry if the facts hurt your feelings.

 

[The CyNick]

Is that what Lou did to Zaitsev? He had an asset he couldn't force to sign, and caved completely to his demands.

You cant hardball a talent like Matthew's. I get that it's been a few decades since Leafs fans have had to deal with this situation, but it's not that hard to grasp

It's simple to grasp. It's just negotiation. McDavid took a discount to play in god awful Edmonton. Matthews choice is sit home or play one of the great cities in North America. This GM just doesn't have the stones to test these agents.

Zaitsev didn't get paid more than the top D man in the league over 8 years like Matthews did.

 

[ElbowLander]

Tavares line with an injured Hyman had a 36% offensive zone starts in the series, and played the most minutes against McAvoy, Chara, Marchand, Bergeron ... Matthews line had a 54% offensive zone starts in the series.

I'm pretty sure Babcock figured the Tavares and Bergeron lines would cancel each other out in the series and the Leafs had the better #2, 3 and 4th lines for the win. There should be no blame put on Mitch, he fought hard in the series against an elite line

Where was he on the pp?