Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[The CyNick]

I would disagree. I think the 5 year aspect makes it crappy.

A list of players higher than Matthews p/60 over 3 years

Kuch 11.45% (8 years)
Stamkos 11.64% (8 years)
Malkin 13.8% (8 years)
Mcdavid 15.7% (8 years)
Marchand 8.2% (8 years)
Crosby 13.5% (8++++++ years)
Pastrnak 8.9% (6 years)
Kessel 11.6% (8 years)
Johnny Hockey 9.2% (6 years)
Matthews 14% (5 years)

Not one signed for 5 or under, only 2/9 signed for 6 years..... and 7/9 signed for 8 years......

Gets more than Crosby and Malkin out of ELC for way less years..... not good. I love Matthews, but he isn't Crosby yet..... he can be, just not yet.

Even assuming a straight line moderate increase of the cap over the next five years, and assuming he still wants 14% of the cap and assuming he's willing to use that as the baseline for next three years, you still end up around $15M per.

If you add 3 years at $15M plus what's he's making for this five year segment, he's still over McDavid's AAV over 8 years by half a million.

That's the most conservative estimate you can use. In reality he'll probably want a larger share of the cap because he'll have more accolades and the cap surely will go up by a higher rate. $17M per is my guess at Matthews next deal. If I'm right he's well over $1M more than the undisputed best player in the game. He better have a couple 150pt seasons to justify that one.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

After looking at CapFriendly, I noticed that most of the rookie ELCs that we talk about making the leap all have performance bonuses built in to their contracts e.g., Liljegren, Sandin, Bracco.

So, we'd have to set aside some room to accommodate the bonuses in 2020-21 if these rookie/ELCs make the leap in 2019-20.

We have to ensure that at any point in time the aggregate contracts we have signed for 2020 don’t put us over, but outside of that if we needed to carry those bonuses over it wouldn’t be a big deal with Marleau coming off the books. I don’t think we should suppress the kids because we’re afraid they’ll play well. They are actually exactly what we need if possible.

That said, I think it’s highly unlikely they hit any material bonuses.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Why are you comparing 2nd contracts to 3rd contracts?

Yea, that's fair. Guys like Crosby and Malkin ate up another 2% off ELC.

Either way, it's comparables.

I use Kuch as Marners comparable.... not Kuch's 2nd contract, because Marner was better during ELC

As for Matthews, same goes, he is better than Kessel, Kuch, etc. at the same age. If all I have to judge Matthews on is 2nd contracts, then I guess McDavid is the pinnacle. Maybe Eichel? Sooooo 11.6x8 sounds about rightish, possible 12mil Give or take.... not 14mil like reported over 8.

 

[Deebo]

Oh damn didnt know those players had performance bonuses? Thought Lou was really stingy on giving those out and would not have given them to a mid 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick. Your right that we will need to put aside some cap for the bonuses.

They won't need to worry about performance bonuses, even if they are all achieved which will be virtually impossible, the amounts are manageable.

Last year Marner and Matthews could have earned up to 3.7M combined on performance bonuses and they were very likely to be achieved and they couldn't afford that 3.7M to carry over 2019/20 because of the cap crunch, so they coulnd't use LTIR because LTIR money can't be used for performance bonuses.

For 2019/20 the maximum possible performance bonuses are:

Bracco (82.5k)
Marchment (132.5k)
Brooks(132.5k)
Timashov (70k)
Liljegren (400k)
Kivihalme (132.5k)
Lindgren (132.5k)
Scott (182.5k)
Total : 1.265M.

Players would have to achieve at least one (maybe more, depending on how the bonuses are structured) of the following to get any bonuses:

Forwards:

Top 6 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams forwards
20 goals
35 assists
60 points
.73 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among forwards (minimum 42 games played)
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

Defense:
Top 4 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams forwards
10 goals
25 assists
40 points
.49 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among D (minimum 42 games played)
Top 2 in blocked shots among D on team
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

I think Maybe Liljegren achieves top 4 in TOI and Bracco could be a longshot to get 35A but both are pretty doubtful. The rest seem pretty much impossible. So if those 2 are achieved and they use LTIR, they would have a 482.5k carry over to 2020/21

The risk they take by using the 5.3M they gain by placing Horton on LTIR for the whole season is a nominal carryover amount in 2020/21 which they can afford in 2019/20

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Yea, that's fair. Guys like Crosby and Malkin ate up another 2% off ELC.

Either way, it's comparables.

I use Kuch as Marners comparable.... not Kuch's 2nd contract, because Marner was better during ELC

As for Matthews, same goes, he is better than Kessel, Kuch, etc. at the same age. If all I have to judge Matthews on is 2nd contracts, then I guess McDavid is the pinnacle. Maybe Eichel? Sooooo 11.6x8 sounds about rightish, possible 12mil Give or take.... not 14mil like reported over 8.

Exactly. He may have started at at $14m/8 years, just like any negotiation you start high. But Dubas could have easily talked him down to $11.5-$12m/8 and that would have been fair for Matthews and the club. I honestly don't know what Dubas was thinking tbh.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Yea, that's fair. Guys like Crosby and Malkin ate up another 2% off ELC.

Either way, it's comparables.

I use Kuch as Marners comparable.... not Kuch's 2nd contract, because Marner was better during ELC

As for Matthews, same goes, he is better than Kessel, Kuch, etc. at the same age. If all I have to judge Matthews on is 2nd contracts, then I guess McDavid is the pinnacle. Maybe Eichel? Sooooo 11.6x8 sounds about rightish, possible 12mil Give or take.... not 14mil like reported over 8.

You mentioned Malkin and Crosbys 3rd contracts not 2nd, no?

 

[diceman934]

Let me give you some math.

In the last 3 years, Marner is 22nd overall in total points. The only player the same age ahead of him is McDavid. The only player ahead of him that is +1 older is Pasta.

He has more points in the last 3 years than:
- Tarasenko (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Rantanen (roughly same games played) +15 points
- Matthews +19 points
- Monahan (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Kopitar (roughly same games played) +20 points
- Eichel +21 points
- Benn (roughly same games played) +23 points
- Point (roughly same games played) +26 points
- Voracek (roughly same games played) +12 points
- Aho (roughly same games played) +27 points
- Bergeron (close ppg) + 29 points

In the last 3 years, Marner is 12th in the NHL for p/60 (tied with Kane, just ahead of Hall)

In the last 3 years, Marner is 18th in the NHL for p/60 ES (almost tied with Mark Stone)

19 - 21 years old..... All ELC years............ already a top 25 NHLer in every way. Remember, those are all the last 3 years..... not just last year, the great year......

What's he worth?

All of those accomplishments while playing under his ELC. He is our best player and people saying if he wants more then 9 m then trade him are failing to understand that being the team’s best player holds value all by its self.

His comparisons are not leading their team in scoring when that same team has two 1st line centers playing on the team as well.

 

[Fakejake51]

All of those accomplishments while playing under his ELC. He is our best player and people saying if he wants more then 9 m then trade him are failing to understand that being the team’s best player holds value all by its self.

His comparisons are not leading their team in scoring when that same team has two 1st line centers playing on the team as well.

And the two 1st line centres have nothing to do with it? Being the leading scorer does not mean best player.

 

[kb]

All of those accomplishments while playing under his ELC. He is our best player and people saying if he wants more then 9 m then trade him are failing to understand that being the team’s best player holds value all by its self.

His comparisons are not leading their team in scoring when that same team has two 1st line centers playing on the team as well.

I agree. Being the teams best players has value. That's why they paid them 11 and 11.634 million.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

The same thing could be said about Tavares, Matthews, Marleau, Kadri, Zaitsev, Rielly and Freddie. Yet it is Nylander who you blame. Marner was also free to sign a contract for many months before Nylander ended up signing and he was free to sign before Matthews did. He didn't because, just like Nylander, he wanted much more than the Leafs wanted to pay, and he wanted to put pressure on the Leafs. Nylander did not get Marner into this situation. Marner did


The Leafs don't have to. I was just showing that the Leafs still are in a position to give Marner a more favourable contract than Kucherov got. If that is not good enough it is because of greed and I hope they trade him.



I agree. That has been my position. If the Leafs decide to go higher that is still their prerogative. They did that with Matthews. I think it is a bad contract. But I understand their reasoning.



In reality Nylander's percentage of the cap was 8.76% which is lower than Pasta' 8.89%. It is arguable that Pasta had proven more than Nylander when each signed. And Pasta's contract is considered a steal. I would say that the chances are really good that Nylander's contract looks really good in 2 or 3 years. I don't think that it is close to as likely that Matthews' contract or Marner's probable contract will look really good in 2 or 3 years.



Maybe, maybe not. I have said before that the three players who signed really high 5-year contracts coming out of their ELCs (Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos) all signed 8+ years for their next contract all at lower cap hits.



Marner is free to do whatever he feels is in his best interest. The Leafs should do the same. If Marner values making completely absurd money more than making slightly less but still completely absurd money while playing out his childhood dream then all the power to him.



Yeah, and Dubas could have traded Nylander in the summer, and Nylander could have signed, gone to camp, played the whole year, with a coach who builds his confidence, plays him as a 1C and on the PP1 (on a team that actually plays the PP1 big minutes) and finished with 75 or 80 points, while the middling 2nd pair RHD D that Dubas managed to acquire could have been relegated to the 3rd pairing and become hated by fans because they gave up a young, 1st line PPG winger/center for him. And then when the Leafs lost in the first round to Boston everyone would have said if only we still had Nylander and called for Dubas' heads. No one knows, and Nylander's season could have gone completely differently under different situations.

When are you Nylander fanboys going to stop making excuses for him.
Nylander fanboys reasoning
Nylander would be better if coach played him right
Nylander would be better if he played with Matthews
Nylander would be better if he didn’t miss training camp
Excuses excuses excuses

No this is the best yet
Nylander will be the best contract of all in two years because he is only going to get better
Yet they say that whatever Marner signs for his contact will be worse because he can’t get any better

What a joke. Nylander hasn’t gotten any better from one year to the next. 61 then 61 then crap

At least Marner has progressed every year but hey according to Nylander fanboys he has reached his peak lol

 

[Mr Hockey]

When are you Nylander fanboys going to stop making excuses for him.
Nylander fanboys reasoning
Nylander would be better if coach played him right
Nylander would be better if he played with Matthews
Nylander would be better if he didn’t miss training camp
Excuses excuses excuses

No this is the best yet
Nylander will be the best contract of all in two years because he is only going to get better
Yet they say that whatever Marner signs for his contact will be worse because he can’t get any better

What a joke. Nylander hasn’t gotten any better from one year to the next. 61 then 61 then crap

At least Marner has progressed every year but hey according to Nylander fanboys he has reached his peak lol

Nylander is a beauty, he just suffered from the holdout, he should be back on track next season, if not we move him

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Tavares, matthews, kadri, Andy and rielly all play a different position so they are irrelevant. Marleau plays the same position but he's only signed for 1 more year and hed be hard to get rid of at this point.

Yes marner was free to sign a contract at any point but why would he if they are low balling him? He knew he was going to play with jt for the season so he gambled on himself and won. Dubas should've signed him last summer but here we are.

I am just trying to be consistent. If the leafs think nylander and matthews are worth more than their comparables, why is marner left out? He's the one who has produced the most.

One players high was 22 goals and 61 points. The other was 34 goals and 70 points in only 75 games. I dont know what's to argue when it comes to who had proven more.

I guess we'll see regarding Matthews next contract. It's a bit worrisome that he has a nmc for his final year meaning he can walk for nothing if he decides. Just a bad contract all around.

So basically your worst case scenario for having traded nylander last offseason is that we would be in the same position we are right now, out of the playoffs in the first round.

Where as the best case scenario for trading him would be that we beat the Bruins in the first round and maybe, in the finals.

I know which I'd prefer to try.

You are 100 per cent right. The real scary part of the Matthews contract is by year four we have to decide if he wants to sign with us or trade him if he doesn’t. Year five he has the no movement clause. Dubas was stupid to sign this crappy deal. What did the leafs get out of it. Nothing because Matthews didn’t give in to anything.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Nylander is a beauty, he just suffered from the holdout, he should be back to track next season.

How do you know. Maybe he is only and ever will be just a 61 point player. There are no guarantees

 

[Mr Hockey]

How do you know. Maybe he is only and ever will be just a 61 point player. There are no guarantees

Maybe he will score 100+ points next season

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Maybe he will score 100+ points next season

Your the one who said he would be back to normal so we should expect. 61 point season because he has never shown he is capable of 100

 

[Mr Hockey]

Your the one who said he would be back to normal so we should expect. 61 point season because he has never shown he is capable of 100

I actually believe he will be in the 75 - 90 point range, I think he will have a normal offseason of training and come to camp mentally ready to play, in a good mindset.

 

[Notsince67]

I agree. Being the teams best players has value. That's why they paid them 11 and 11.634 million.

Being the best forward on a team used to mean scoring the most points. In this day of participation trophies, I suppose we don't want fans committed to their wrong predictions of the past to feel like they are complete losers.
Carry on

 

[Notsince67]

When are you Nylander fanboys going to stop making excuses for him.
Nylander fanboys reasoning
Nylander would be better if coach played him right
Nylander would be better if he played with Matthews
Nylander would be better if he didn’t miss training camp
Excuses excuses excuses

No this is the best yet
Nylander will be the best contract of all in two years because he is only going to get better
Yet they say that whatever Marner signs for his contact will be worse because he can’t get any better

What a joke. Nylander hasn’t gotten any better from one year to the next. 61 then 61 then crap

At least Marner has progressed every year but hey according to Nylander fanboys he has reached his peak lol

Yup. Nylander will most definitely reach his potential by scoring over 15% higher than his career best to achieve a bargain contract of 100k per point. An increase of just over 6 % in unachievable for Marner. That's why we need to keep his salary at no more than 9MM so that he can make less than 100k per point

 

[Stamkos4life]

You said pens were better off because they had a goalie in their top 4

Rofl where did I say the pens are better off because they had a goalie in their top 4?

Stop digging your hole deeper! Its embarrassing.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

I actually believe he will be in the 75 - 90 point range, I think he will have a normal offseason of training and come to camp mentally ready to play, in a good mindset.

Again excuses
Willy could have worked out in offseason
And when you sign that big contract you can’t get in a good mindset.
Players sit out for injuries all the time and come back just as strong as ever
But willy has to have his excuses. Maybe he isn’t as good on North American ice as he is on the big ice and 60 points is his high side.

 

[diceman934]

I agree. Being the teams best players has value. That's why they paid them 11 and 11.634 million.

Lol. Marner is the Leafs best player. He just out produced both of those players and played on the PK.

 

[Menzinger]

Sorry, what speculation? That players tie their salary demands to the cap? I'm comfortable on that limb.

That TV rights fees for sports properties continue to increase year over year and that the current US deal is grossly undervalued compared to other recent deals? Another limb I'm willing to do a jig on.

Sorry if the facts hurt your feelings.

We have no idea what Matthew's salary will be in 5+ years. Unless you have a time machine you've hidden from the rest of humanity, it's just idle speculation on your part.

 

[diceman934]

And the two 1st line centres have nothing to do with it? Being the leading scorer does not mean best player.

No it means that he is worthy of a trade in your opinion, which is absurd. You simply do not trade franchise players until they are on their down side of their career.

 

[Notsince67]

Lol. Marner is the Leafs best player. He just out produced both of those players and played on the PK.

He knows. Doesn't matter. How do I know?

I think Marner is going to have a better year than Matthews
Speculation: - Nylander Contract Discussion IV
The Nylander Chronicles Part XXXII - Trade proposal arrive
Nylander Chronicles XXXIV - All Holdout and No Contract Make Bert a Dull Boy

 

[Martin Skoula]

Even assuming a straight line moderate increase of the cap over the next five years, and assuming he still wants 14% of the cap and assuming he's willing to use that as the baseline for next three years, you still end up around $15M per.

If you add 3 years at $15M plus what's he's making for this five year segment, he's still over McDavid's AAV over 8 years by half a million.

That's the most conservative estimate you can use. In reality he'll probably want a larger share of the cap because he'll have more accolades and the cap surely will go up by a higher rate. $17M per is my guess at Matthews next deal. If I'm right he's well over $1M more than the undisputed best player in the game. He better have a couple 150pt seasons to justify that one.

So 1 million more than McDavid buys you 30-40 more points than McDavid?