Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[crump]

Can't blame Dubas for inheriting a team (that he helped draft) with some damned good players on it. Leafs got lucky and drafted Matthews, Marner and Nylander so closely together. They are going to cost you. The only thing he had control over was trading Nylander before he sat out. Then everyone would freak out when he wouldn't get a number 1 defensemen for him. It's still to be determined if he trades him after his bonuses are paid out...he might make gold from this yet.

Or you I suppose you could blame him for actually going after Tavares. I suppose we didn't have to do that if you feel he gave to much for him, but it sounds like Tavares left money on the table to come here. These bridge deals are the only thing he can do to smooth over the next few years while we wait fo some contract to come off the books. Cost is high for the term on Matthews contract, by comparables in the past, but that is just it, cost will always, always go up with time. What seemed right last year is no longer valid.

Marner is probably going to be the highest paid winger in the league, not because he is the best, just because he is the latest elite player to get a contract.

 

[The CyNick]

I love Matthews and think he will progress but he will never be in the same realm as Mcdavid no matter how much we like him and his game.

And yet our young GM decided to give Matthews a deal higher than McDavid. He must be a genius.

 

[Fakejake51]

Marner for $9 or less or start the trade discussion today. If I’m his agent based on media presentations by both Dubas and Shanahan I’d ask for $20. You want him signed by July 1? The numbers $20. Balls in your court. Dumb proclamations by both Dubas and Shanahan.

 

[kb]

Marner for $9 or less or start the trade discussion today. If I’m his agent based on media presentations by both Dubas and Shanahan I’d ask for $20. You want him signed by July 1? The numbers $20. Balls in your court. Dumb proclamations by both Dubas and Shanahan.

They need to shut the F up. But Shanahan alluded to that on Tim and Sid.....Dubas is too forthcoming.

 

[kb]

I really think that what Dubas said about needing this contract done by July 1st was a subtle shot across the bow to the Marner camp. As in....we need this done by July 1st or we will start looking in a different direction. They can't leave themselves hanging without cost certainty on Marner before then or they won't be able to sign their other RFA's, to say nothing of signing any UFA's.

 

[Fakejake51]

I really think that what Dubas said about needing this contract done by July 1st was a subtle shot across the bow to the Marner camp. As in....we need this done by July 1st or we will start looking in a different direction. They can't leave themselves hanging without cost certainty on Marner before then or they won't be able to sign their other RFA's, to say nothing of signing any UFA's.

His agent has nothing to lose. He’s coming in guns A blazing IMO. Why wouldn’t he? He’s got all the ammo in the world.

 

[kb]

His agent has nothing to lose. He’s coming in guns A blazing IMO. Why wouldn’t he? He’s got all the ammo in the world.

Exactly. And this was Dubas' passive aggressive response. What he did say was that this needed to be done by July 1st. We also know Marner's agent called Matthews' contract "the worst in the league". So I'm thinking that comment pissed off Dubas, and the July 1st comment was basically to say.....this gets done by then or we look at all options. I think that was Dubas drawing a line in the sand.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I think if Marner wasn’t in Toronto, no one would be talking about him deserving double digits.

I love the kid, I want him to stay, I’ll even be ok if they overpay him to keep him because watching all these young stars is way more fun than watching a higher class of 3 rd and fourth liners than we will be able to afford, but to me, the reality is that the media has hyped him to a level beyond his reasonable comparables.

That’s not his fault or managements fault, it’s just life in Toronto.

 

[DarkKnight]

I think if Marner wasn’t in Toronto, no one would be talking about him deserving double digits.

I love the kid, I want him to stay, I’ll even be ok if they overpay him to keep him because watching all these young stars is way more fun than watching a higher class of 3 rd and fourth liners than we will be able to afford, but to me, the reality is that the media has hyped him to a level beyond his reasonable comparables.

That’s not his fault or managements fault, it’s just life in Toronto.

I think you're right, there is something to the media hyping numbers that leads to exaggerated expectations.

 

[ToneDog]

I really think that what Dubas said about needing this contract done by July 1st was a subtle shot across the bow to the Marner camp. As in....we need this done by July 1st or we will start looking in a different direction. They can't leave themselves hanging without cost certainty on Marner before then or they won't be able to sign their other RFA's, to say nothing of signing any UFA's.

IMO you cannot wait until July 1st to "start looking in a different direction". That needs to be done well before the draft if that is where you decide you need to go. I think Leafs are confident they will get a deal done and that is why Dubas chose July 1st. For me, Leafs may as well let the Marner camp go out and find a team that is willing to pay him his ask if a deal is not done before the draft. Show some onions here. Marner is great but no other NHL team is going to over pay him like the Leafs have Nylander and Matthews.

 

[MLSE]

And yet our young GM decided to give Matthews a deal higher than McDavid. He must be a genius.

Matthews gets 14% of the cap, McDavid at the time got 16.5% of the cap... hmm.

 

[Notsince67]

Exactly. And this was Dubas' passive aggressive response. What he did say was that this needed to be done by July 1st. We also know Marner's agent called Matthews' contract "the worst in the league". So I'm thinking that comment pissed off Dubas, and the July 1st comment was basically to say.....this gets done by then or we look at all options. I think that was Dubas drawing a line in the sand.

Dubas is let go before he trades a Marner. Marner now owns the team.

 

[MLSE]

Marner for $9 or less or start the trade discussion today. If I’m his agent based on media presentations by both Dubas and Shanahan I’d ask for $20. You want him signed by July 1? The numbers $20. Balls in your court. Dumb proclamations by both Dubas and Shanahan.

Under 9 million or you trade him

I love the lack of people who understand the math behind the salary cap.

 

[Mess]

I'm fairly confident that in the cap crunch in this bridge year before Marleau leaves, neither Marner or Nylander will be a cap casualty.

You're probably right, so perhaps the true Leafs casualty will be a non playoff year.

Something is going to have to give, because all decisions have consequences both good and bad. When you give your own players Matthews and Marner what amounts to +$20 mil combined raises, that in a salary cap world where every $1 counts has got to show up somewhere in the equation.

Perhaps Leafs management will need proof first it can't work, before they decide to balance the books differently reactively, when proactively might have been the better option from the start.

Time will tell now, and proof will be in the pudding, which in hockey terms will be the team results!!

 

[MLSE]

You sign the big 3.. You arent strapped to the deals, you can trade if it becomes too difficult to work around it. They have people assuming the growth of the cap, I have no problem giving Marner 9+ to 11 million depending on the length of the deal.

 

[glue]

It is certainly going to be interesting to see what happens here with Marner, but its really hard to argue that the contracts to Nylander and moreso Matthews, at the moment anyway, aren’t overpayments. Once you take term, UFA status and how front loaded these contracts are, it really looks like the Leafs overpaid on both fronts. However, we’ll see if the market really has changed with other UFA/RFA signings this summer. If not, then Dubas and his ‘cap specialists’ aren’t as good as they think they are.

 

[Bomber0104]

Matthews gets 14% of the cap, McDavid at the time got 16.5% of the cap... hmm.

Sure, it looks cheaper if you flat out ignore the fact that McDavid gave Edmonton the max 8 years and Matthews only 5 for the Leafs, with a full no-movement clause in his contract year...

Under 9 million or you trade him

I love the lack of people who understand the math behind the salary cap.

Speak for yourself.

In any case, the only "math" that's going to matter is what Marner's agent comes at Dubas with, since evidently he's shown he doesn't have much of a spine for negotiations.

 

[Mess]

You sign the big 3.. You arent strapped to the deals, you can trade if it becomes too difficult to work around it. They have people assuming the growth of the cap, I have no problem giving Marner 9+ to 11 million depending on the length of the deal.

The problem being the Salary Cap is not growing proportionate to team spending however.

This year it was $79.6 mil and its rumoured to go to ~$83 mil for next year = about $3 mil increase.

Marner moving from $875k to $10 mil is a +$9 mil cap hit..

Marner's new salary is expected to be 3 X the annual Salary cap increase, so it would theoretically take the next 3 years of cap increases to accommodate that. For Matthews it will take 4 more years after that. So mathematically it will take 7 years of on average +$3 mil Cap growth to absorb the Marner and Matthews increases on the books starting next year.

Based on Matthews at 5 year term and Marner expected at 5-6 years to follow suit overlapping deals, then their current deals will have officially expired before they're paid off in full.

 

[Fakejake51]

Under 9 million or you trade him

I love the lack of people who understand the math behind the salary cap.

Meh. Cap is pretty clear. No point burying your head in the sand on it. The real result is in the message. The team isn’t and should never be run by 22 year olds who haven’t won a thing. Time to take back control.

 

[The CyNick]

This year Marner played for $875k ELC and put up in 82 games 26 goals 68 assists 94 points.

How much will he produce next year when he is making ~ $10 mil?

The reasonable answer would be about the same 90-100 points, if he continues to play with a #1C and on the #1PP unit.

So the only thing that is going to impact the Leafs is not his production, but his actual cap hit in that Leafs will need to be dumping $9 mil off the roster to accommodate his raise.

Letting Gardiner walk (-$4.05 mil) + dealing Kadri for futures (-$4.5 mil) for cap reasons and replacing them on the roster with Calle Rosen and Nic Petan as regulars would be an example.

So are the Leafs stronger with 95 point Marner ($875k) + Gardiner + #3c Kadri OR 95 point Marner (@$10 mil) + Rosen + #3C Petan for the same # of players and cap hit?

Rinse and repeat that thought process from Matthews moving from $975k to $11.643 mil.

If the Leafs were not good enough to advance past the 1st round with all hands on deck this year while AM and MM where making <$2 mil, then how will cup competitiveness increase if the team is stripping down the roster to accommodate their raises when making > $22 mil?

Spot on and it's why I was banging the drum that the last two years were our best chance to win. Unfortunately our new england friends seemingly have beat us to the punch. Howdya like dem apples?

Not to say all is lost, we still have high end forward talent, but our current management group had made it harder for us to achieve the ultimate goal.

 

[Mess]

Spot on and it's why I was banging the drum that the last two years were our best chance to win. Unfortunately our new england friends seemingly have beat us to the punch. Howdya like dem apples?

Here is the real scary reality thought about that.

Boston's perfection line trio = $19.6 mil combined AAV and one of the best most productive lines in hockey, about to take a run at the Cup.

With Marner expected to get ~$10 mil and Matthews already getting $11.634 that will add +$20 mil to the Leafs salary cap of the coming off their ELC deals.

Leafs are about to reward AM + MM with raises >> than Boston pays their entire top line in real salary/AAV. Let that sink in for a second.

Then Leafs will be tasked to try beat the Bruins for the same Stanley Cup, when they don't outscore them., they only out earn $$ them.

 

[The CyNick]

People who are disappointed with Dubas often cannot actually come up with a concrete dollar amount for what they think Nylander, Matthews or Tavares would have signed for reasonably.

Nylander should have been $6M. The young GM made mistakes in the negotiation process (his words not mine) which made it sound like getting a deal done would be easy. He waited too long and in doing so the price was driven up. He is also not feared by agents and so he panicked and made an offer that was way more than nylander deserved. If nylander wouldn't sign at $6M, he should have been told to stay home. His trade value would have been higher than it is coming off a 7 goal season.

Marner was widely reported to be willing to sign $9M x 8 years last summer. The young GM in his infinite wisdom bet against the player and chose to hold off signing that deal. He bet against Marner despite signing Tavares who was promised to play with Marner. Hard to understand why he thought it was wise to wait for Marner to have a career year. Now Marner will likely sign an $11.6M deal.

Matthews deal is beyond insane. At $11.6M he's going to be paid more than McDavid over 7 years. Matthews is great, but he hasn't proven he's better than McDavid. I don't even think he's proven he can be a top ten player in the league. It looks like he has top five potential, but he hasn't done it yet. Not to mention the deal allows him to walk free after only five years. Unreal how much he got bent over by Matthews. Not to mention it came out that Matthews camp was willing to take a $9M x 3 year deal.

Tavares deal was fine. He was a UFA. Maybe we could have squeezed him, but if we wanted him you got to pay.

So sum total he's likely overpaying three of our guys by about $6M. That's the difference of losing his like Gardiner or Kap and AJ.

Now compare that to how deals Lou signed with Rielly, Kadri, and Andy look in comparison to their production. The difference is staggering. This is what happens when you give someone with no valid experience the keys to the castle.

 

[The CyNick]

Here is the real scary reality thought about that.

Boston's perfection line trio = $19.6 mil combined AAV and one of the best most productive lines in hockey, about to take a run at the Cup.

With Marner expected to get ~$10 mil and Matthews already getting $11.634 that will add +$20 mil to the Leafs salary cap of the coming off their ELC deals.

Leafs are about to reward AM + MM with raises >> than Boston pays their entire top line in real salary/AAV. Let that sink in for a second.

Then Leafs will be tasked to try beat the Bruins for the same Stanley Cup, when they don't outscore them., they only out earn $$ them.

Yup it's true. And sad when it's laid out like that.

We are actually shaping up more like Edmonton in the Hall, Eberle, RNH era where they were paid top dollar at the time before accomplishing anything.

In the cap world, deals with superstars should look kinda scary at first but then look like bargains as the cap goes up. I am 99% sure the cap will be well over $100M when McDavids contact ends. In fact I believe it will be closer to $115M. At that point McDavid will seem cheap. Matthews on the other hand is being allowed to ride the crest of the cap increase and will be making in the neighborhood of $16-17M per (at that point likely on an 8 year deal). So we won't see Matthews contact benefit us until he's in his 30s and likely declining in production.

For a team that apparently has all these young cap gurus, I just don't see the logic. And the worst part is marners camp is watching this and going we'll take that too.

 

[The CyNick]

Marner for $9 or less or start the trade discussion today. If I’m his agent based on media presentations by both Dubas and Shanahan I’d ask for $20. You want him signed by July 1? The numbers $20. Balls in your court. Dumb proclamations by both Dubas and Shanahan.

He did the same with the nylander deal. Cost us around $1M in AAV and possibly a Stanley Cup based on nylanders poor play all season.

 

[The CyNick]

Matthews gets 14% of the cap, McDavid at the time got 16.5% of the cap... hmm.

What do you think Matthews deal will look like in dollars after the five years is up? If he signs at $12.5 per, then we come out ahead.

More likely he's in the $16-17M range. Then it's on average higher than McDavid. And it could be more then that. Depends how crazy US TV rights negotiations get.