Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Notsince67]

How much better do people really believe Marner will get? Be realistic here, Patrick Kane had a career year in his 3rd year in the league and did not reach that level of PPG production until 3 years later. Kane is better than Marner IMO, and even he's had his down years. It could honestly be awhile before Marner hits 90+ points again. Scoring wingers can peak very early in their careers. I realize Marner is a supremely talented kid but you gotta keep expectations tempered.

Hard to say. I expect ~100 points over 82 or he should be subjected to a lot of criticism. Powerplay performance improvements by the team could net him a bucket load.

 

[sxvnert]

and yet again Dumbass is waiting until the last minute to get things done.

 

[Cor]

and yet again Dumbass is waiting until the last minute to get things done.

It was Marner who chose not to negotiate in season.

 

[Superstar]

and yet again Dumbass is waiting until the last minute to get things done.

He's begging the board to front-load Marner's contract with another 90% plus in signing bonuses every year...that should get it done along with another overpayment...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The Oilers did not come close to making the playoffs with McDavid and Drai, and if he doesn't play with Tavares MM is good but he isn't a 90pt guy this season. Say he has 82 points playing with Tyler Bozak, are you giving him $11M? The center, the minutes, and the pp usage were a perfect storm for him to have a great season but he is still a 26 goal winger. He isn't Pat Kane who destroyed the playoffs in his contract year so he doesn't have that leverage.

Nobody pays $12M for a 26 goal scorer unless maybe a Norris D man. We need to look at it as 4 firsts plus Panarin or Karlsson or Duchene because that is what the cap flexibility allows when an RFA shoots for the moon.. How about 4 firsts plus Pietrangelo or Taylor Hall next season if they don't blow their wad this summer (but they will)?

He does make others better I think, and he is still improving but the cap is the cap and they will survive without him. I hugely prefer him to Willie but not if he needs $11M to re-sign. Assists don't win games and 26-58 is not at all the same impact 50-44 and the $ has never supported that.

I'd argue that the 20 million in cap space that the leafs had this year (by paying Matthews/Marner a combined 2 million as opposed to 22 million compared to Oilers spending 21 million on Drai/McDavid) was spent on the precise extra depth that got the leafs into the playoffs and not the oilers.

And that's with the Mcdavid/Drai combo putting up 91 goals/221 points compared to Matthews/Marner combo putting up (lol) 63 goals/167 points.

The leafs are really in serious trouble cap wise.

 

[Walshy7]

Hard to say. I expect ~100 points over 82 or he should be subjected to a lot of criticism. Powerplay performance improvements by the team could net him a bucket load.

Jeez that’s pretty harsh. Another 90 point season would unreal imo. I certainly won’t be criticizing if he doesn’t reach 100

 

[Peasy]

and yet again Dumbass is waiting until the last minute to get things done.

Have you ever negotiated something in your life?

It takes two parties to agree to a deal...

 

[Go4soda]

Oh for sure. You can go online and see his fortnight profile and see how much he has been playing. After I saw that rumor I looked into it and found some article that seem pretty conclusive.

For example evidently Laine and Ehlers each buy a new TV at every away game so they can play fortnight together on the road. (They buy a new one because they dont want to bring them on the plane supposedly).

Ya I dont get it at all, but I was an old school Counter strike 1.6 player

Couldn’t they just use the tv’s in the hotel room? I’m not a gamer. But I’m fascinated.

 

[Cor]

Couldn’t they just use the tv’s in the hotel room? I’m not a gamer. But I’m fascinated.

TV’s in hotels are either older with poor graphic capabilities, or sometimes even have blockers on them to avoid consoles working on them.

It’s not every away game, just ones where the above issues happen.

Not just Ehlers and Laine either. There’s a lot of athletes that do it across hockey, basketball, even pro wrestling.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Have you ever negotiated something in your life?

It takes two parties to agree to a deal...

I don't think he's comparing Dubas to himself. He's comparing Dubas to other GM's. You know... the GM's that sign all of their players to fair market value... or better. Non-rookie gm's. Professionals.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Couldn’t they just use the tv’s in the hotel room? I’m not a gamer. But I’m fascinated.

Not all have the right hdmi hookup and they can probably use the TVs while on the go too.

 

[habsrule22]

I strongly disagree. Not convinced at all that those picks will result in anywhere close to the same quality that Marner is.

But this place has always had a fascination with picks and prospects. HF in HFBoards does Stand for Hockey’s future after all.

And it could be 3 years from now before you get the benefit of the first one

 

[HolyCrap]

TV’s in hotels are either older with poor graphic capabilities, or sometimes even have blockers on them to avoid consoles working on them.

It’s not every away game, just ones where the above issues happen.

Not just Ehlers and Laine either. There’s a lot of athletes that do it across hockey, basketball, even pro wrestling.

Welp. I learned something new today. I had no idea tbh.

 

[Go4soda]

TV’s in hotels are either older with poor graphic capabilities, or sometimes even have blockers on them to avoid consoles working on them.

It’s not every away game, just ones where the above issues happen.

Not just Ehlers and Laine either. There’s a lot of athletes that do it across hockey, basketball, even pro wrestling.

Wow. Times have changed.

 

[glue]

Marner is pretty important. He drives play, puts up points, and even does PK. He’s kind of a super good, and very young player who is going to get even better. Any team that offer sheets Marner will likely make the playoffs. The kid is a great player, who makes others better.

I never said he wasn’t important, but no one player is greater then the team and when the GM is starting to develop a reputation of overpaying players, you gotta make sure you do some damage control on that and show you are aren’t a pushover and get other good players to ensure the ‘team’ is great. Several teams out there seem to have done better with lesser players

 

[Erndog]

I don't think he's comparing Dubas to himself. He's comparing Dubas to other GM's. You know... the GM's that sign all of their players to fair market value... or better. Non-rookie gm's. Professionals.

Yeah guys... hes comparing him to all the other GMs that have already signed their own restricted free agents like Laine, Aho, Point, Connor, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

Those professional GMs who have already got those guys signed.

 

[Notsince67]

Jeez that’s pretty harsh. Another 90 point season would unreal imo. I certainly won’t be criticizing if he doesn’t reach 100

If he is over 10 he has to produce

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yeah guys... hes comparing him to all the other GMs that have already signed their own restricted free agents like Laine, Aho, Point, Connor, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

Those professional GMs who have already got those guys signed.

Let's see what those players sign for compared to Marner.

I literally can't wait to read all of the excuses on this forum. I'm literally going to have popcorn ready.

 

[Walshy7]

If he is over 10 he has to produce

yeah thats a fair point

 

[Erndog]

Let's see what those players sign for compared to Marner.

I literally can't wait to read all of the excuses on this forum. I'm literally going to have popcorn ready.

How, and maybe more importantly, why, would something like that bring you so much joy?

 

[MyBudJT]

If we got 4 1st round picks for Marner do you really think we keep all those picks? We'll have 8 first round picks over the next 4 years so why do you think we won't use those picks to upgrade our team and get a top pairing d man. Also, like some have said already, the team that can offer sheet that much probably isn't that good of a team yet so 1 or 2 of those picks could be lottery picks. So realistically we could get 2 top 10 picks and a top pairing d man with all the 1st round picks we'd have.

Even though I doubt any team offer sheets Marner for that kind of money tbh.

I never said that we’d keep those 1st round picks... but even if you trade them, youre not going to get anywhere near Marner quality in return.

It’s just as likely as the picks will be in the 22-31 range as it would in the 1-10 range. That is a risk I have no interest in taking.

 

[MyBudJT]

Then you are looking at it the wrong way.

4 1sts can build a brand new core if they are used optimally. Try to put yourself in the shoes of any management team around the league and envision your franchise not having a 1st round pick for the next 4 years so you can have Marner at $12.5M x 8. Nobody will do it, the risk is so high that no GM would risk their reputation on it just in case it fails.

A first and two seconds yielded Muzzin for 1.5 years. How much more do you think an extra two firsts will garner? Regardless, I very much doubt it will add up to Marner quality.

 

[MyBudJT]

They are not being paid for past number of games played. It is just as likely that Matthews plays more games than Marner next year than the opposite.

Has it not raised a red flag to you that Matthews has had like 5 or 6 injuries already in his career?

Other than a bought of Mono, Marner has proven to be a very durable player.

At this point, I don’t know how you can suggest it’s just as likely Marner will miss more games.

 

[MyBudJT]

If there was no salary cap, I would unquestionably want Marner more than 4 1st round picks, no matter the contract. It's very unlikely we'll get a Marner caliber player out of those 4 picks.

But the issue is far more complicated than that. I'm starting to think that there just isn't the cap space to have 3 players paid as generational superstars on one team. And that doesn't even include Rielly and Andersen getting ufa contracts in a couple of years.

I know that its within the realm of possibility to win with 40% of the cap tied up on three players. But I think at this point it would actually be better to use Marner's cap space to fill up our numerous holes, as well as have 4 first round picks.

Like I said... I'd prefer to have Matthews and Marner at fair market value... that the team could work with. But Matthews (and soon to be Marner?) are more interested in milking every penny they can. Market value isn't good enough for them. The two of them are single-handedly determining what the market even is... and that's just not sustainable. There will be far too many holes.

I don't think the leafs even make the playoffs next year if Marner eats up 11 mil or so of our cap.

Fair enough, you’re being completely reasonable. That said, I’d explore trading Nylander wayyyyyy before Marner to get that extra cap space.

 

[MyBudJT]

I would give it about 50/50 that Marner ever tops 94 points. My guess would be that Marner averages 80 points/82 GP over the next 5 years.

This is hilarious. For half his career, Marner has been producing at a 95 point pace. Why do you think he peaked at 22?