Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[LaPlante94]

I strongly disagree. Not convinced at all that those picks will result in anywhere close to the same quality that Marner is.

But this place has always had a fascination with picks and prospects. HF in HFBoards does Stand for Hockey’s future after all.

If we got 4 1st round picks for Marner do you really think we keep all those picks? We'll have 8 first round picks over the next 4 years so why do you think we won't use those picks to upgrade our team and get a top pairing d man. Also, like some have said already, the team that can offer sheet that much probably isn't that good of a team yet so 1 or 2 of those picks could be lottery picks. So realistically we could get 2 top 10 picks and a top pairing d man with all the 1st round picks we'd have.

Even though I doubt any team offer sheets Marner for that kind of money tbh.

 

[IPS]

I strongly disagree. Not convinced at all that those picks will result in anywhere close to the same quality that Marner is.

But this place has always had a fascination with picks and prospects. HF in HFBoards does Stand for Hockey’s future after all.

Then you are looking at it the wrong way.

4 1sts can build a brand new core if they are used optimally. Try to put yourself in the shoes of any management team around the league and envision your franchise not having a 1st round pick for the next 4 years so you can have Marner at $12.5M x 8. Nobody will do it, the risk is so high that no GM would risk their reputation on it just in case it fails.

 

[glue]

What Marner signs for or doesn’t sign for (offer sheeted/traded) will say a lot about Dubas in my opinion. I thought the Nylander contract was ok and I definitely didn’t like the Matthews contract once term was considered, but let’s see if he has the balls to draw a line in the sand with Marner. I think with Matthews it was definitely harder given he’s our franchise C, with Marner I think he should feel less pressure that he has to pay him a ransom.

 

[biotk]

In my opinion, I value 82 games of Marner higher than 60 games of Matthews.

They are not being paid for past number of games played. It is just as likely that Matthews plays more games than Marner next year than the opposite.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I strongly disagree. Not convinced at all that those picks will result in anywhere close to the same quality that Marner is.

But this place has always had a fascination with picks and prospects. HF in HFBoards does Stand for Hockey’s future after all.

If there was no salary cap, I would unquestionably want Marner more than 4 1st round picks, no matter the contract. It's very unlikely we'll get a Marner caliber player out of those 4 picks.

But the issue is far more complicated than that. I'm starting to think that there just isn't the cap space to have 3 players paid as generational superstars on one team. And that doesn't even include Rielly and Andersen getting ufa contracts in a couple of years.

I know that its within the realm of possibility to win with 40% of the cap tied up on three players. But I think at this point it would actually be better to use Marner's cap space to fill up our numerous holes, as well as have 4 first round picks.

Like I said... I'd prefer to have Matthews and Marner at fair market value... that the team could work with. But Matthews (and soon to be Marner?) are more interested in milking every penny they can. Market value isn't good enough for them. The two of them are single-handedly determining what the market even is... and that's just not sustainable. There will be far too many holes.

I don't think the leafs even make the playoffs next year if Marner eats up 11 mil or so of our cap.

 

[Fatass]

What Marner signs for or doesn’t sign for (offer sheeted/traded) will say a lot about Dubas in my opinion. I thought the Nylander contract was ok and I definitely didn’t like the Matthews contract once term was considered, but let’s see if he has the balls to draw a line in the sand with Marner. I think with Matthews it was definitely harder given he’s our franchise C, with Marner I think he should feel less pressure that he has to pay him a ransom.

Marner is pretty important. He drives play, puts up points, and even does PK. He’s kind of a super good, and very young player who is going to get even better. Any team that offer sheets Marner will likely make the playoffs. The kid is a great player, who makes others better.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You blend PP and EV to make a point by weighting apples and oranges differently?
Expected Primary points are known to be more predictive than goals. Admittedly I don't have the numbers this year but looking at EV actual primary points/60 we know Marner is better.
Beyond that, it is really difficult to gauge how well Matthews plays in a full year. Everyone plays hurt during some part of a season but Matthews does seem to find time to heal up.

I am not an advocate to pay any leaf what they aren't worth. I believe Matthews and Nylander are overpaid. I think Marner will get overpaid as well. I get you are looking for league consistency but the differences in Matthews and Marner is not 2MM per year. It is absurd.

I've actually never been apart of the Matthews vs Marner contract debate.

I'm torn on it. I think there is a case to be made that Marner deserves Matthews money. But there's also a case to be made that that would quite literally be a revolutionary unprecedented contract for a winger coming off their elc. And there's also a case to be made that goal scoring centers simply make more than playmaking wingers.

And it also begs another question...

If the leafs have to dramatically overpay Marner an unprecedented contract all because of the Matthews overpayment... where will that end exactly?

Won't Rielly in a couple years just say "Matthews and Marner got heavily overpaid compared to other players in their roles... so now that's what I want." And won't we all say we won't blame him? Won't Andersen make the same argument? Won't literally every leaf player?

Where does it end?

Has the entire rebuild been destroyed by the Matthews dramatic overpayment?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Marner is pretty important. He drives play, puts up points, and even does PK. He’s kind of a super good, and very young player who is going to get even better. Any team that offer sheets Marner will likely make the playoffs. The kid is a great player, who makes others better.

You make him sound like he is a McDavid and even he can't carry a team to the playoffs consistently.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Hey...don't knock it. Kessel got his 8MM contract from the leafs @ 12.44% of the cap. Overpaying players is nothing new on this team.

I was heavily critical of the Kessel contract when it was signed.

 

[moon111]

If the Leafs lost Marner to an offer sheet, the Leafs could go out and do the same thing to Patrik Laine, perhaps even for less money, less compensation. Think this off-season could fall like a deck of cards once certain contracts get signed.

 

[LaPlante94]

Sorry bout that. typed wrong. Corsi and Fenwick are a bit of a joke TBH. Not a materially predictive measure of anything. St Louis finished 10th in the league this year for CF%. Last Year Washington finished 24th. Penguins finished 16th the year before that.

I never cared too much about them either if players brought something to the table that helped the team out, but over the last 3-4 years we've been told how important these stats are apparently and I've been under the impression that anything below 50% ratings for these aren't that good. Marners Corsi numbers were 51% and Fenwick was 49% this past season which isn't awful by any means. I'm not gonna act like some kind of expert on these stats but Marner is the one guy you always notice who has/wants like Nylander and Matthews when they are on the ice with their lines and yet Marner has the worst numbers of them all when it comes to this so I don't know why that is. Some have even suggested Marner has carried Tavares (crazy huh) and his numbers are better than Marners, even Hymans are. Maybe there's a reasoning behind this?

 

[IPS]

How much better do people really believe Marner will get? Be realistic here, Patrick Kane had a career year in his 3rd year in the league and did not reach that level of PPG production until 3 years later. Kane is better than Marner IMO, and even he's had his down years. It could honestly be awhile before Marner hits 90+ points again. Scoring wingers can peak very early in their careers. I realize Marner is a supremely talented kid but you gotta keep expectations tempered.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If the Leafs lost Marner to an offer sheet, the Leafs could go out and do the same thing to Patrik Laine, perhaps even for less money, less compensation. Think this off-season could fall like a deck of cards once certain contracts get signed.

I agree with the sentiment but Laine is the last player I would target. Seems to be much more interested in Fortinite than hockey and his on ice production shows that.

He may be the most one-dimensional player in the league

 

[Ziggdiezan]

How much better do people really believe Marner will get? Be realistic here, Patrick Kane had a career year in his 3rd year in the league and did not reach that level of PPG production until 3 years later. Kane is better than Marner IMO, and even he's had his down years. It could honestly be awhile before Marner hits 90+ points again. Scoring wingers can peak very early in their careers. I realize Marner is a supremely talented kid but you gotta keep expectations tempered.

If Marner plays with JT again and league scoring stays high (as I would expect considering all the changes made to increase scoring) I expect Marner to put up between 90-100 points next year

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If Marner plays with JT again and league scoring stays high (as I would expect considering all the changes made to increase scoring) I expect Marner to put up between 90-100 points next year

If scoring is high across the board, shouldn't that have a mitigating affect on player contracts?

 

[biotk]

How much better do people really believe Marner will get? Be realistic here, Patrick Kane had a career year in his 3rd year in the league and did not reach that level of PPG production until 3 years later. Kane is better than Marner IMO, and even he's had his down years. It could honestly be awhile before Marner hits 90+ points again. Scoring wingers can peak very early in their careers. I realize Marner is a supremely talented kid but you gotta keep expectations tempered.

I would give it about 50/50 that Marner ever tops 94 points. My guess would be that Marner averages 80 points/82 GP over the next 5 years.

 

[Walshy7]

I agree with the sentiment but Laine is the last player I would target. Seems to be much more interested in Fortinite than hockey and his on ice production shows that.

He may be the most one-dimensional player in the league

Yeah the rumours about a player being addicted to fortnight that we’re floating around, it has to be Laine little snippets of info slowly coming out about him and his gaming.

Off topic but fortnight looks like the shittest game I’ve ever seen, unpopular opinion I’m sure but it looks terrible.

 

[TML1967]

It will be interesting about when the deal is signed vs when the Leafs free up cap space.
Right now, the Leafs can play the 'we dont have the money' card hard since we actually are very limited.

If they move a Marleau and/or Zaitsev 1st and have an increase in cap space they have a smaller 'we are cap strapped' card to play.

IMO best case scenario for the leafs would be:
1) Marner signs something like 9-9.5m x 7-8 years
2) AJ+Kap sign. Combined between 5.5-6m x 2 years
3) At the draft, Leafs move Zaitsev without taking back a bad contract
4) July 2nd, move a guy like Marleau for Eaves/a injured guy who is put on the LTIR. No real cap hit comes back to us.

If you reverse the order, I think Marner, AJ and Kappy all cost more.

 

[Fatass]

How much better do people really believe Marner will get? Be realistic here, Patrick Kane had a career year in his 3rd year in the league and did not reach that level of PPG production until 3 years later. Kane is better than Marner IMO, and even he's had his down years. It could honestly be awhile before Marner hits 90+ points again. Scoring wingers can peak very early in their careers. I realize Marner is a supremely talented kid but you gotta keep expectations tempered.

Has Nylander peaked then?
What’s special about Marner is his effort to dog pucks, and play hard on and off pucks. He’s pretty much fearless. These are qualities that make Babcock use Mitch on the PK. Clearing cap space is the first order. Move Zaitsev, and hopefully Marleau will waive. If needs be, move Nylander. But sign Marner! He reminds me of a better skating Rick Middleton. And that’s one heck of a valuable player.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If scoring is high across the board, shouldn't that have a mitigating affect on player contracts?

It certainly should. Last I looked there was a pretty steady increase in scoring the past 3 years. Who knows if the GMs are bringing it up but I certainly hope they are

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah the rumours about a player being addicted to fortnight that we’re floating around, it has to be Laine little snippets of info slowly coming out about him and his gaming.

Off topic but fortnight looks like the ****test game I’ve ever seen, unpopular opinion I’m sure but it looks terrible.

Oh for sure. You can go online and see his fortnight profile and see how much he has been playing. After I saw that rumor I looked into it and found some article that seem pretty conclusive.

For example evidently Laine and Ehlers each buy a new TV at every away game so they can play fortnight together on the road. (They buy a new one because they dont want to bring them on the plane supposedly).

Ya I dont get it at all, but I was an old school Counter strike 1.6 player

 

[Notsince67]

I've actually never been apart of the Matthews vs Marner contract debate.

I'm torn on it. I think there is a case to be made that Marner deserves Matthews money. But there's also a case to be made that that would quite literally be a revolutionary unprecedented contract for a winger coming off their elc. And there's also a case to be made that goal scoring centers simply make more than playmaking wingers.

And it also begs another question...

If the leafs have to dramatically overpay Marner an unprecedented contract all because of the Matthews overpayment... where will that end exactly?

Won't Rielly in a couple years just say "Matthews and Marner got heavily overpaid compared to other players in their roles... so now that's what I want." And won't we all say we won't blame him? Won't Andersen make the same argument? Won't literally every leaf player?

Where does it end?

Has the entire rebuild been destroyed by the Matthews dramatic overpayment?

it ends with a change of management. A new GM can say that he is not playing favorites

 

[Superstar]

Marner is pretty important. He drives play, puts up points, and even does PK. He’s kind of a super good, and very young player who is going to get even better. Any team that offer sheets Marner will likely make the playoffs. The kid is a great player, who makes others better.

Sure he's a great player, but St. Louis just won the Cup without Mitch Marner, so did all the past Cup championship teams. You need a team to win, not a collection of expensive contracts!

 

[nuck]

Marner is pretty important. He drives play, puts up points, and even does PK. He’s kind of a super good, and very young player who is going to get even better. Any team that offer sheets Marner will likely make the playoffs. The kid is a great player, who makes others better.

The Oilers did not come close to making the playoffs with McDavid and Drai, and if he doesn't play with Tavares MM is good but he isn't a 90pt guy this season. Say he has 82 points playing with Tyler Bozak, are you giving him $11M? The center, the minutes, and the pp usage were a perfect storm for him to have a great season but he is still a 26 goal winger. He isn't Pat Kane who destroyed the playoffs in his contract year so he doesn't have that leverage.

Nobody pays $12M for a 26 goal scorer unless maybe a Norris D man. We need to look at it as 4 firsts plus Panarin or Karlsson or Duchene because that is what the cap flexibility allows when an RFA shoots for the moon.. How about 4 firsts plus Pietrangelo or Taylor Hall next season if they don't blow their wad this summer (but they will)?

He does make others better I think, and he is still improving but the cap is the cap and they will survive without him. I hugely prefer him to Willie but not if he needs $11M to re-sign. Assists don't win games and 26-58 is not at all the same impact 50-44 and the $ has never supported that.

 

[Superstar]

The Oilers did not come close to making the playoffs with McDavid and Drai, and if he doesn't play with Tavares MM is good but he isn't a 90pt guy this season. Say he has 82 points playing with Tyler Bozak, are you giving him $11M? The center, the minutes, and the pp usage were a perfect storm for him to have a great season but he is still a 26 goal winger. He isn't Pat Kane who destroyed the playoffs in his contract year so he doesn't have that leverage.

Nobody pays $12M for a 26 goal scorer unless maybe a Norris D man. We need to look at it as 4 firsts plus Panarin or Karlsson or Duchene because that is what the cap flexibility allows when an RFA shoots for the moon.. How about 4 firsts plus Pietrangelo or Taylor Hall next season if they don't blow their wad this summer (but they will)?

He does make others better I think, and he is still improving but the cap is the cap and they will survive without him. I hugely prefer him to Willie but not if he needs $11M to re-sign. Assists don't win games and 26-58 is not at all the same impact 50-44 and the $ has never supported that.

Excellent point...who would be dumb enough to trade 4 1st PLUS one of those players for Marner...and at his asking price of Matthews money? LOL...