Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Notsince67]

I'm most interested to see what Rantanen gets. Both wingers and Rantanen had a slighty higher PPG total and scored 30 goals playing less games. Keep hearing Marner deserves 12 million so I'm guessing Rantanen deserves 12.5 or is it just different if you play for the Leafs?

Have you actually looked at the stats?

EV p/60
Marner: 2.1, 2.1, 3.2
Rantanen: 1.5, 2.4, 2.6

PP p/60
Marner: 6.9, 8.8, 8.7
Rantanen: 2.9, 6.9, 6.5

Once you take usage into account Marner should get paid more

 

[Kiwi]

Oh no Dom please no, I liked you too

The replays are as funny as **** though

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Have you actually looked at the stats?

EV p/60
Marner: 2.1, 2.1, 3.2
Rantanen: 1.5, 2.4, 2.6

PP p/60
Marner: 6.9, 8.8, 8.7
Rantanen: 2.9, 6.9, 6.5

Once you take usage into account Marner should get paid more

But you also were unfair with the stats.

What about g/60? Rantanen is quite a bit better in that regards. And I was repeatedly told in all of the Matthews threads that goals are more valuable than points.

Let’s also add that Rantanen put up elite numbers last year (84, so 2 seasons in a row) while Marner scored in the 60’s his first 2 seasons. And I was told repeatedly in the Nylander vs Pastrnak threads that just one great season on your elc is an outlier. But Rantanen was elite TWICE.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Double post

 

[LaPlante94]

Have you actually looked at the stats?

EV p/60
Marner: 2.1, 2.1, 3.2
Rantanen: 1.5, 2.4, 2.6

PP p/60
Marner: 6.9, 8.8, 8.7
Rantanen: 2.9, 6.9, 6.5

Once you take usage into account Marner should get paid more

PP pts/60 this season for Marner was 5.7 and not 8.7 but that's not really a big deal, just thought I'd point it out. PTS/60 is cool and all but in the end PPG is what matters when it comes to contract negotiations. Also, we're always told how important corsi/fenwick numbers are and Rantanens were better.

 

[Notsince67]

But you also were unfair with the stats.

What about g/60? Rantanen is quite a bit better in that regards. And I was repeatedly told in all of the Matthews threads that goals are more valuable than points.

Let’s also add that Rantanen put up elite numbers last year (84, so 2 seasons in a row) while Marner scored in the 60’s his first 2 seasons. And I was told repeatedly in the Nylander vs Pastrnak threads that just one great season on your elc is an outlier. But Rantanen was elite TWICE.

Ev g/60
Marner: .8, .7, 1
Rantanen: .8,.8, .7

PP g/60
Marner: 1.3, 2.6, .8
Rantanen 1.2, 2.4, 3.1
Other than the last season, it doesn't really look a lot different.

 

[IPS]

Have you actually looked at the stats?

EV p/60
Marner: 2.1, 2.1, 3.2
Rantanen: 1.5, 2.4, 2.6

PP p/60
Marner: 6.9, 8.8, 8.7
Rantanen: 2.9, 6.9, 6.5

Once you take usage into account Marner should get paid more

Rantanen has no doubt had the advantage of more PP time plus better linemates (Mackinnon > Tavares, Landeskog > Hyman).

 

[Babcocks Marner]

But you also were unfair with the stats.

What about g/60? Rantanen is quite a bit better in that regards. And I was repeatedly told in all of the Matthews threads that goals are more valuable than points.

Let’s also add that Rantanen put up elite numbers last year (84, so 2 seasons in a row) while Marner scored in the 60’s his first 2 seasons. And I was told repeatedly in the Nylander vs Pastrnak threads that just one great season on your elc is an outlier. But Rantanen was elite TWICE.

It's all so confusing isn't it?

 

[Notsince67]

PP pts/60 this season for Marner was 5.7 and not 8.7 but that's not really a big deal, just thought I'd point it out. PTS/60 is cool and all but in the end PPG is what matters when it comes to contract negotiations. Also, we're always told how important corsi/fenwick numbers are and Rantanens were better.

Sorry bout that. typed wrong. Corsi and Fenwick are a bit of a joke TBH. Not a materially predictive measure of anything. St Louis finished 10th in the league this year for CF%. Last Year Washington finished 24th. Penguins finished 16th the year before that.

 

[kb]

I wish I was that smart. It is beyond imagination.

You said it, not I.

Have you actually looked at the stats?

EV p/60
Marner: 2.1, 2.1, 3.2
Rantanen: 1.5, 2.4, 2.6

PP p/60
Marner: 6.9, 8.8, 8.7
Rantanen: 2.9, 6.9, 6.5

Once you take usage into account Marner should get paid more

So rates will never vary with ice time? Is that how things work?

Just for fun, lets play a rate game with Matthews and Marner.

5v5 p/60
Matthews: 2.2, 3.0, 2.9
Auston Matthews NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com
Marner: 2.1, 2.0, 2.9 (with Tavares)
Mitch Marner NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com

Seems like one deserves quite a bit more than the other just based on usage.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I heard talks arnt even close and Marner is ready to look else where force Dubas to give him what he wants or go to another team

 

[trellaine201]

Good, let’s take the picks and move along.

 

[Fatass]

I heard talks arnt even close and Marner is ready to look else where force Dubas to give him what he wants or go to another team

How can Marner look elsewhere? When can another team actually table an offer sheet to him?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ev g/60
Marner: .8, .7, 1
Rantanen: .8,.8, .7

PP g/60
Marner: 1.3, 2.6, .8
Rantanen 1.2, 2.4, 3.1
Other than the last season, it doesn't really look a lot different.

Nhl.com lists Rantanen at 1.21 g/60 last year, and Marner at 0.96

Year prior, Rantanen at 1.13, and Marner at 0.98

And if I bring up Rantanen's post season this year, things start to look embarrassing...

I mean, it appears more than anything that people can just spin things however they wish to support whatever narrative they want.

Let's try it this way...

When it comes to REAL points, advantage Rantanen (he was ppg two seasons in a row... I'm being consistent with the Nylander/Pastrnak threads).
When it comes to p/60, advantage Marner.
When it comes to g/60, advantage Rantanen (and I was told in all the Matthews threads that goals are FAR more important than points).

It's pretty silly to make the case that Marner deserves more than Rantanen. It takes a whole series of outrageous stat mining to try and make that case.

And I can't wait to see a comparison where the LEAF player has more REAL points, and much lower stats like even strength p/60. I flat out guarantee that, in those cases, everyone will cite just the REAL points. Not the stat mined ones. I absolutely guarantee it.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Sorry bout that. typed wrong. Corsi and Fenwick are a bit of a joke TBH. Not a materially predictive measure of anything. St Louis finished 10th in the league this year for CF%. Last Year Washington finished 24th. Penguins finished 16th the year before that.

Ah... of course. The advanced stats that don't prove your narrative "don't count".

 

[Notsince67]

You said it, not I.


So rates will never vary with ice time? Is that how things work?

Just for fun, lets play a rate game with Matthews and Marner.

5v5 p/60
Matthews: 2.2, 3.0, 2.9
Auston Matthews NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com
Marner: 2.1, 2.0, 2.9 (with Tavares)
Mitch Marner NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com

Seems like one deserves quite a bit more than the other just based on usage.

How many games will Matthews play next year?

 

[IPS]

I heard talks arnt even close and Marner is ready to look else where force Dubas to give him what he wants or go to another team

If we end up with the Islanders or Habs 1st round pick for the next 4 years Leafs nation has some incredible times to look forward to.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If we end up with the Islanders or Habs 1st round pick for the next 4 years Leafs nation has some incredible times to look forward to.

Yep.

The way I see it.

Marner at fair market value > 4 first round picks.

Marner as the highest paid nhl winger defying all precedent < 4 1st round picks.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Reports on mainboard saying marner wants 12.5million . My reaction to marner thinking he is worthy anywhere near Mcdavid(**** the internal Matthews comp and see how far beneath he is than 97)

There were no reports on the mainboards that Marner wanted 12.5 only thatvan unnamed habs player overheard that an unnamed teamed is preparing an offersheet at 12.5.

 

[MyBudJT]

If we end up with the Islanders or Habs 1st round pick for the next 4 years Leafs nation has some incredible times to look forward to.

Yep.

The way I see it.

Marner at fair market value > 4 first round picks.

Marner as the highest paid nhl winger defying all precedent < 4 1st round picks.

I strongly disagree. Not convinced at all that those picks will result in anywhere close to the same quality that Marner is.

But this place has always had a fascination with picks and prospects. HF in HFBoards does Stand for Hockey’s future after all.

 

[Notsince67]

Nhl.com lists Rantanen at 1.21 g/60 last year, and Marner at 0.96

Year prior, Rantanen at 1.13, and Marner at 0.98

And if I bring up Rantanen's post season this year, things start to look embarrassing...

I mean, it appears more than anything that people can just spin things however they wish to support whatever narrative they want.

Let's try it this way...

When it comes to REAL points, advantage Rantanen (he was ppg two seasons in a row... I'm being consistent with the Nylander/Pastrnak threads).
When it comes to p/60, advantage Marner.
When it comes to g/60, advantage Rantanen (and I was told in all the Matthews threads that goals are FAR more important than points).

It's pretty silly to make the case that Marner deserves more than Rantanen. It takes a whole series of outrageous stat mining to try and make that case.

And I can't wait to see a comparison where the LEAF player has more REAL points, and much lower stats like even strength p/60. I flat out guarantee that, in those cases, everyone will cite just the REAL points. Not the stat mined ones. I absolutely guarantee it.

You blend PP and EV to make a point by weighting apples and oranges differently?
Expected Primary points are known to be more predictive than goals. Admittedly I don't have the numbers this year but looking at EV actual primary points/60 we know Marner is better.
Beyond that, it is really difficult to gauge how well Matthews plays in a full year. Everyone plays hurt during some part of a season but Matthews does seem to find time to heal up.

I am not an advocate to pay any leaf what they aren't worth. I believe Matthews and Nylander are overpaid. I think Marner will get overpaid as well. I get you are looking for league consistency but the differences in Matthews and Marner is not 2MM per year. It is absurd.

 

[MyBudJT]

How many games will Matthews play next year?

That’s just it. I think most would acknowledge that Matthews is the better player. Plays the tougher position and scores more goals.

However, whether he impacts his team through the course of the season More than Marner IS up for debate.

In my opinion, I value 82 games of Marner higher than 60 games of Matthews.

 

[Notsince67]

Yep.

The way I see it.

Marner at fair market value > 4 first round picks.

Marner as the highest paid nhl winger defying all precedent < 4 1st round picks.

Hey...don't knock it. Kessel got his 8MM contract from the leafs @ 12.44% of the cap. Overpaying players is nothing new on this team.

 

[LeafSteel]

Any chance GM’s with top tier RFA’s are secretly talking to each other to get an idea of what they plan to offer their top RFA’s, in order to baseline the market?

 

[hullsy47]

How can Marner look elsewhere? When can another team actually table an offer sheet to him?

lol even steve Simmons says talks are guarded
any leaks would come from ferris