Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Rude Dog]

Marner is not 5 million dollars better than Willy. And I am a huge Marner fan. These kids are me first players who will squirm when the pressure mounts for not having team success as they can’t build a team around them.

 

[Nineteen67]

The offer sheet idea is a pure fabrication.

Speaking of golden eras, we are truly in the era of clickbait. You can put out an article not telling one ounce of truth and your credibility will remain 100% intact. Honesty and integrity is not required anymore.

Do you you have proof it’s fabricated?

 

[HolyCrap]

When you have a hard salary cap you need to keep your first round picks and use them wisely! You get to control your own players, as they are yours, you do not have to go acquiring them as unrestricted or restricted free agents or trades, you need lights out scouting, and analytics, on draft day you need to be making a good educated guess.

In the salary cap era, you need to pay for tomorrow today, not yesterday today! Paying for past performance means you are getting older, weaker, slower, and more injury prone! Every single time you sign an unrestricted free agent, consider: This player is at the precipice of their career. There may be a year or 2 of joy, and then the collapse, the very, very expensive, costs against the cap decline. When asked, "What free- agents should the Leafs go after?" there is a lot to be said for saying "Absolutely none!" But we here in Leafs Nation want to trade our picks and get grizzled veterans and always be all in all the time, and in the past, so were our GMs with the catastrophic results to show for it, we all fear.

First round draft picks are gold. Any GM who tosses them about or considers his options and is ok with giving up 4 consecutive first round picks is turning their team into a real mess

Salary cap means drafting counts, you need excellent information and great scouting and analytics, you need to watch your spending especially when it comes to grizzled veterans and intangibles, as those players will mandatorily get worse and worse and decline rapidly after a couple of years, and perhaps the hardest bit to get is to pay today for tomorrow - which is part of the reason why you need analytics, as it is supposed to be difficult - and not pay for yesterday. Let's try to avoid signing up for the law of diminishing returns in a cap system, let's see about avoiding that calamity. Just thinking about it makes me want to crack open another European pilsner beer!

Yeah I totally agree with that. I was mocking some other posters here. It seems like the RFAs are being treated more like UFAs. Ultimately if nobody offer sheets Marner and no trade of value is presented then Marner has to sign at a fair value or not play.

 

[IPS]

When you have a hard salary cap you need to keep your first round picks and use them wisely! You get to control your own players, as they are yours, you do not have to go acquiring them as unrestricted or restricted free agents or trades, you need lights out scouting, and analytics, on draft day you need to be making a good educated guess.

In the salary cap era, you need to pay for tomorrow today, not yesterday today! Paying for past performance means you are getting older, weaker, slower, and more injury prone! Every single time you sign an unrestricted free agent, consider: This player is at the precipice of their career. There may be a year or 2 of joy, and then the collapse, the very, very expensive, costs against the cap decline. When asked, "What free- agents should the Leafs go after?" there is a lot to be said for saying "Absolutely none!" But we here in Leafs Nation want to trade our picks and get grizzled veterans and always be all in all the time, and in the past, so were our GMs with the catastrophic results to show for it, we all fear.

First round draft picks are gold. Any GM who tosses them about or considers his options and is ok with giving up 4 consecutive first round picks is turning their team into a real mess

Salary cap means drafting counts, you need excellent information and great scouting and analytics, you need to watch your spending especially when it comes to grizzled veterans and intangibles, as those players will mandatorily get worse and worse and decline rapidly after a couple of years, and perhaps the hardest bit to get is to pay today for tomorrow - which is part of the reason why you need analytics, as it is supposed to be difficult - and not pay for yesterday. Let's try to avoid signing up for the law of diminishing returns in a cap system, let's see about avoiding that calamity. Just thinking about it makes me want to crack open another European pilsner beer!

I believe what most people ignore when they're discussing the offer sheet narrative is how insanely high risk a max offer sheet is.

There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a season (Leafs nation should know this). What happens if the team that gave up 4 1sts to get Marner at $12.5M runs into major problems like injuries, goalies flopping, etc etc...? They're looking at an unmitigated disaster much like Leafs nation had to go through when Burke traded 2 firsts (plus a 2nd) for Kessel. It set our team back for years (plus Burke's love of Patrick O'Thuggo). Now imagine if that was 4 1sts? We wouldn't have even drafted Morgan Rielly. I have no problems reiterating that I believe the alleged offer sheet threat is a complete fabrication. And like you said, you take the 4 1sts and get controllable elite assets. I'll gladly watch the Leafs draft Seguin, Hamilton and Rielly.

 

[Stigma]

I believe what most people ignore when they're discussing the offer sheet narrative is how insanely high risk a max offer sheet is.

There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a season (Leafs nation should know this). What happens if the team that gave up 4 1sts to get Marner at $12.5M runs into major problems like injuries, goalies flopping, etc etc...? They're looking at an unmitigated disaster much like Leafs nation had to go through when Burke traded 2 firsts (plus a 2nd) for Kessel. It set our team back for years (plus Burke's love of Patrick O'Thuggo). Now imagine if that was 4 1sts? We wouldn't have even drafted Morgan Rielly. I have no problems reiterating that I believe the alleged offer sheet threat is a complete fabrication. And like you said, you take the 4 1sts and get controllable elite assets. I'll gladly watch the Leafs draft Seguin, Hamilton and Rielly.

I completely agree with this. On the radio, you hear about the ominous "offer sheet" and the conversation stops there. There's no elaboration about who are the specific teams that can actually pull this off (cap space, not signing their own RFAs, not basement dwellers). Like you said, even the middle-of-the-pack or better teams can have an off year and give up a prime draft pick or two from the 4 first rounders. Not saying it's impossible to offer-sheet, but unlikely due to risk.

This reminds me a lot of the rumours we hear about teams who are picking in the top-10 being "very serious" about trading their draft pick. LOL. Does it happen? Yes. But very, very rarely.

 

[Mess]

Marner is not 5 million dollars better than Willy. And I am a huge Marner fan. These kids are me first players who will squirm when the pressure mounts for not having team success as they can’t build a team around them.

This is a Toronto situation and not a NHL situation.

Last summer both Nylander and Marner were being compared to Pastrnak, his deal $6.67 mil + cap inflation @ about $7.5 mil.

Kucherov the highest scoring winger in the game (128 points) signs for 8 X $9.5 mil (ALL UFA years), Mark Stone also gets 8 years @ $9.5 mil (All UFA years).

Marner is a RFA and those are cost controllable years (for next 4 years) and are cheaper than UFA years for every team but Toronto apparently.

Numbers like $10.5 -$11.5 mil for Marner are being tossed around like that is market going rate for RFA wingers.

What kind of comparables are Leafs agents using to convince Dubas that this is the new norm and going rate?

 

[glue]

Its definitely ridiculous hearing the numbers we’re hearing for Marner.

This article suggests 9.25 6 years would be reasonable when compared to the rest of the market.
Projecting Mitch Marner's next contract

But right now most of us are so sold on the media hype we’re willing to accept numbers like 10.5 for 6 years, which is absurd.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Well in all honesty this is how the first two contacts were signed

willy was a 60 point player who should have got 5 to 5.5 but we paid him for his future point total in a few years which will make his contract a steal at 6.9. So he got paid for his future.

Matthews is a 70 point 40 goal scorer who got paid for his future
Point total with people thinking he will be close to 100 point player. Again he got paid for his future and then he got a great term on top of that. Nothing team friendly about that deal at all.

Now marner who has improved his points every year of his elc
Wants to be paid. Now posters want him to take 9.5 for 8 years almost two million less than Matthews when he has proved more durable than and being used in more important role like penalty killing. He should get 11.5 based on his future point total just like the other two or do these same posters believe he has peaked at 22

 

[Mess]

The 2 players we see Marner most often compared to are Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau as a version of them as elite smaller playmaking wingers.

Patrick Kane signed a 5 year @$31.5 mil bridge deal coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.3 mil and a C.H.% 11.09 %
Johnny Gaudreau signed a 6 year $40.5 mil 2nd contract coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.75 mil and a C.H% of 9.25%

Going to be interesting to see where Marner ends up in comparison to his 2nd contract with term & AAV and his C.H%.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well in all honesty this is how the first two contacts were signed

willy was a 60 point player who should have got 5 to 5.5 but we paid him for his future point total in a few years which will make his contract a steal at 6.9. So he got paid for his future.

Matthews is a 70 point 40 goal scorer who got paid for his future
Point total with people thinking he will be close to 100 point player. Again he got paid for his future and then he got a great term on top of that. Nothing team friendly about that deal at all.

Now marner who has improved his points every year of his elc
Wants to be paid. Now posters want him to take 9.5 for 8 years almost two million less than Matthews when he has proved more durable than and being used in more important role like penalty killing. He should get 11.5 based on his future point total just like the other two or do these same posters believe he has peaked at 22

No Nylander comparable had him making under 6 million. He likely got overpaid by like half a million if you consider he gave away less UFA years than comprables.

Matthews got paid for being the best or one of the best ES goal scorers since he entered the league. I will agree that he got overpaid but ya, his goal scorer prowess is already elite and so not entirely based on potential.

Matthews a big goal scoring center just isnt a good comparison to Marner. Marner has been out produced by Matthews (pace wise) every year but this year whereby Marner plays with JT and Matthews with a rotating door of rookies. Matthews is also younger.

Cant think of two players more different than Matthews and Marner stylistically. It is such an odd comparison people keep making.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The 2 players we see Marner most often compared to are Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau as a version of them as elite smaller playmaking wingers.

Patrick Kane signed a 5 year @$31.5 mil bridge deal coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.3 mil and a C.H.% 11.09 %
Johnny Gaudreau signed a 6 year $40.5 mil 2nd contract coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.75 mil and a C.H% of 9.25%

Going to be interesting to see where Marner ends up in comparison to his 2nd contract with term & AAV and his C.H%.

My wager is he blows both out of the water. He wont deserve it but I'm getting ready for another overpayment in relation to comparables.

Maybe the Seattle draft will bump the cap up a bunch and so that is being incorporated into these contract demands. I'm not sure.

 

[ULF_55]

Well in all honesty this is how the first two contacts were signed

willy was a 60 point player who should have got 5 to 5.5 but we paid him for his future point total in a few years which will make his contract a steal at 6.9. So he got paid for his future.

Matthews is a 70 point 40 goal scorer who got paid for his future
Point total with people thinking he will be close to 100 point player. Again he got paid for his future and then he got a great term on top of that. Nothing team friendly about that deal at all.

Now marner who has improved his points every year of his elc
Wants to be paid. Now posters want him to take 9.5 for 8 years almost two million less than Matthews when he has proved more durable than and being used in more important role like penalty killing. He should get 11.5 based on his future point total just like the other two or do these same posters believe he has peaked at 22

I won't have a problem if he gets 11.5 with any team in the league as long as the Leafs can still fill their needs on defense.

If another team wants to offersheet him at 12, 13, 15 per year I'd be fine with that as well.

I'd be fine with a Kakko for Marner deal. Why would the Rangers not do that for a player worth 11.5 per year at age 22?

Marner
for
2nd.OA, DeAngelo, conditional 1st. in 2020 (Rangers make the playoffs / Marner wins some award).

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Remember when Dubas (or Shanahan can't remember which) said that the Leafs wouldn't be "setting the market".

Good times.

 

[Nithoniniel]

willy was a 60 point player who should have got 5 to 5.5 but we paid him for his future point total in a few years which will make his contract a steal at 6.9. So he got paid for his future.

There's no player even remotely similar to him who signed for more than a few years who made anything similar to the numbers you have here. If you think under $6M ever was or even should be a possibility, you don't understand the market. Neither he or Matthews got paid on potential, they got paid by what players of their current performance level costs in today's NHL.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Leafs overpaid AM and Nylander
Now let’s overpay Marner

 

[Stamkos4life]

There's no player even remotely similar to him who signed for more than a few years who made anything similar to the numbers you have here. If you think under $6M ever was or even should be a possibility, you don't understand the market. Neither he or Matthews got paid on potential, they got paid by what players of their current performance level costs in today's NHL.

Arvidsson was payed 4.25 mil after getting 61 points and 31 goals. That's without having the advantage of playing with auston Matthew's for the majority of his ice time.

This year he got 34 goals in 58 games. As we know, goal scores are paid more than playmakers.

So we have nylander at 7 mil while a comparable is making 4.25 even though the comparable is a much better goal scorer.

Nylander should've got 6 tops.

Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1.

The leafs have most definitely not been paying based on current performance.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The 2 players we see Marner most often compared to are Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau as a version of them as elite smaller playmaking wingers.

Patrick Kane signed a 5 year @$31.5 mil bridge deal coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.3 mil and a C.H.% 11.09 %
Johnny Gaudreau signed a 6 year $40.5 mil 2nd contract coming out of his ELC for an AAV $6.75 mil and a C.H% of 9.25%

Going to be interesting to see where Marner ends up in comparison to his 2nd contract with term & AAV and his C.H%.

The contract those 2 players signed should be considered a hard floor to what Marner's should be. They're hardly even comparable.

 

[Notsince67]

The highest RFA winger contract in league history by an absolute mile is a discount? Jesus you people have lost your minds

Makes Nylander's ass of a contract look positively "team friendly", which RFA contract will be the worst in league history? Matthews or Marner so roll up and place your bets now



It's called lost the plot
He's not our best player you homer
You trade guys who make insane salary demands they don't deserve (like 12.5M) especially if the player is a winger and you have a magical thing called a hard salary cap





I've talked about trading all our players, Nylander included because I don't particularly like most of our guys on a personal level, there not a very likable bunch

I do admire how little self reflection you show though, it's a beautiful thing to watch

Nylanders contract per point is richer. Makes no sense to keep Nylander and balk at Marner unless there are romantic interests getting in the way

 

[Nithoniniel]

Arvidsson was payed 4.25 mil after getting 61 points and 31 goals. That's without having the advantage of playing with auston Matthew's for the majority of his ice time.

This year he got 34 goals in 58 games. As we know, goal scores are paid more than playmakers.

So we have nylander at 7 mil while a comparable is making 4.25 even though the comparable is a much better goal scorer.

Nylander should've got 6 tops.

Arvidsson had a career high of 18 points before that, one of many examples of why one single season is not as highly valued as some think. He was never a comparable, and what he did this year has absolutely no bearing on a contract discussion. Which you well know.

If Nylander got 6 million, he would have had the best contract of any player with his kind of case with one exception, Ehlers. He'd have been at almost a full million less than the average of his ten closest comparables.

Any expectation there around is entirely unrealistic.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Arvidsson had a career high of 18 points before that, one of many examples of why one single season is not as highly valued as some think. He was never a comparable, and what he did this year has absolutely no bearing on a contract discussion. Which you well know.

If Nylander got 6 million, he would have had the best contract of any player with his kind of case with one exception, Ehlers. He'd have been at almost a full million less than the average of his ten closest comparables.

So you think having two 61 point seasons of 22 and 21 goals (while playing with Matthews because linemates are so important) is worth ~2.75 mil more than an 18 point season and a 61 point 30 goal season?

That means marner is worth at least 3-4 mil more when you consider that he had 33 more points this year than nylander's career high. So you have no issue with marner at 10-11 mil right?

I made an edit to my previous message re you saying we pay based on performance;

Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1.

The leafs have most definitely not been paying based on current performance.​

 

[HoweHullOrr]

All I can say is that the "comparable" argument/theory doesn't seem to have mattered much in 2 out 2 cases for the big three.

I can certainly see why Marner's camp isn't listening much to those arguments as he knows where he stands performance & production wise relative to those two fellow team mates.

I've stayed away from this topic as its getting overworked, but that thought has been bouncing around in my head and seemed relevant.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1.

The leafs have most definitely not been paying based on current performance.

They absolutely have been paying based on current performance. They pay based on how effective the player is when they are on the ice. You just refuse to believe that players don't get deducted salary due to entire team failure.

Lecavalier fits the bill above, and he even played mostly full seasons. Also since elite players don't get penalized for not scoring points when they aren't on the ice, Malkin is Matthews' best comparable in production and he was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league (tied w/ Ovy and Crosby in salary) before he won any individual awards or a stanley cups. Except Matthews scores more goals when on the ice than all of the above players. FYI players also don't get deducted salary because the whole team gets bottom in the league in PP time.

 

[Mess]

All I can say is that the "comparable" argument/theory doesn't seem to have mattered much in 2 out 2 cases for the big three.

I can certainly see why Marner's camp isn't listening much to those arguments as he knows where he stands performance & production wise relative to those two fellow team mates.

I've stayed away from this topic as its getting overworked, but that thought has been bouncing around in my head and seemed relevant.

Marner's comparables being used for better or worse are his 2 teammates and #1Cs Matthews and Tavares and Marner is asking where is my $11 mil also, as if they're arguing in a bubble and only what is happening in Toronto that matters, and the rest of the league UFAs or RFAs don't seem to matter.

I'm not surprised as I've been predicting this since last summer that Tavares contract on and off the ice was going to blow up Leafs internal payscale by his signing $$ and his on ice production, setting the stage for Matthews and Marner to use that to their own financial gains when it was their turn to resign.

 

[Legion34]

People who believe that contract comparables were irrelevant for the Matthews and Nylander contract have no understanding of the comparables.

1.) Matthews ended up at where previous 5 year deals. A little less for having proven less.

2.) Nylander ended up literally EXACTLY where models predicted him to be based on performance and recent comparables.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

People who believe that contract comparables were irrelevant for the Matthews and Nylander contract have no understanding of the comparables.

1.) Matthews ended up at where previous 5 year deals. A little less for having proven less.

2.) Nylander ended up literally EXACTLY where models predicted him to be based on performance and recent comparables.

Seems like people forget all the 5 year deals handed out to the likes of Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Toews etc. Nylander gave up far less UFA years than Ehlers and 1 less than Pasta