Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Notsince67]

Marner had 21 points this year on the PP. His previous years had him with 25 and 20. Math makes that almost the same, not Nylander or his fans. It's also simple math that disagrees with your claim that he would hit 100 if he produced the same on the PP.

But sure, you're the voice of reason and logic here.

5.7 p/60 vs 8.8 last year. At that rate it would have given him 11 more pts this year. With Rantanens pp time, it would have been 24 more points. Simple math shows how biased you are

 

[57 Years No Cup]

It should be 8 years if he's getting that much.

5 or 6 years should put him under 10 mill, if not under 9.5 mill for a 5 year deal.

It won't be under 10 for any term, except maybe a short (2-3 year) bridge.

Prepare to be disappointed.

 

[MyBudJT]

How come Marner is the only of the big 3 that is supposed to get any better? Marner was the major reason why the PP sucked, it became too predictable with him.

Tavares is at his prime already and at his peak... Matthews should also get better, just like Marner.

I'm pretty consistent with this stance. You'd expect your ELC players to improve. Marner and Matthews both showed growth from their Rookie seasons, which is why I have an issue with people using 3 year averages for U22 players.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It won't be under 10 for any term, except maybe a short (2-3 year) bridge.

Prepare to be disappointed.

Given the way Dubas handled the other two deals, I doubt he's just going to roll over and overpay Marner like that.

 

[MyBudJT]

Given the way Dubas handled the other two deals, I doubt he's just going to roll over and overpay Marner like that.

Marner just did something that only 7 other players have done in the last 25 years. Score 90+ points (94 to be exact) by their U22 season. This young man is going to get PAID. And deservingly so.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Marner just did something that only 7 other players have done in the last 25 years. Score 90+ points (94 to be exact) by their U22 season. This young man is going to get PAID. And deservingly so.

Of course, but we are not going to blank cheque him either.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Given the way Dubas handled the other two deals, I doubt he's just going to roll over and overpay Marner like that.

You have it exactly backwards. Dubas let the overpay horse out of the barn already and that sucker's rollicking in the pasture waiting for Marner to take advantage.

 

[Cor]

Marner just did something that only 7 other players have done in the last 25 years. Score 90+ points (94 to be exact) by their U22 season. This young man is going to get PAID. And deservingly so.

Who are the other 7 players and what were the cap percentages on their next deals.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You have it exactly backwards. Dubas let the overpay horse out of the barn already and that sucker's rollicking in the pasture waiting for Marner to take advantage.

I'm not going to argue about Matthews anymore. The Leafs paid the 2nd best U22 player the 2nd most amount of money. If you think that is an overpay, then I guess you just don't want Matthews on this team

 

[MyBudJT]

Who are the other 7 players and what were the cap percentages on their next deals.

Crosby (17.3% x 5)
McDavid (16.67% x 8)
Kariya (Not in the cap era)
Ovechkin (16.82% x 13)
Malkin (14.77% x 5)
Staal (10.23% x 3)
Stamkos (11.66% x 5)

Edit:
Based on these examples, Marner should get in the neighbourhood of:
8.5-9M x 3
10M x 5
10.5-11 x 6
11-11.5 x 7
11.5-12 x 8

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I'm not going to argue about Matthews anymore. The Leafs paid the 2nd best U22 player the 2nd most amount of money. If you think that is an overpay, then I guess you just don't want Matthews on this team

Money's ok, term sucks. Which is why I think the same with Mitch. Term "discounts" don't seem to matter to Dubas if it's the difference maker for keeping a player.

 

[Cor]

Crosby (17.3% x 5)
McDavid (16.67% x 8)
Kariya (Not in the cap era)
Ovechkin (16.82% x 13)
Malkin (14.77% x 5)
Staal (10.23% x 3)
Stamkos (11.66% x 5)

So I think we can all agree comparing to Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Malkin is a no go for obvious reasons.

Using Stamkos, he’d get around 9.3M x 5 years.

 

[MyBudJT]

So I think we can all agree comparing to Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Malkin is a no go for obvious reasons.

Using Stamkos, he’d get around 9.3M x 5 years.

Stamkos is in a non-taxed state. Using Stamkos as an example would be approximately 10M x 5 years. I editted my post above about "comparable" values:

Based on these examples, Marner should get in the neighbourhood of:
8.5-9M x 3
10M x 5
10.5-11 x 6
11-11.5 x 7
11.5-12 x 8

 

[Cor]

Stamkos is in a non-taxed state. Using Stamkos as an example would be approximately 10M x 5 years. I editted my post above about "comparable" values:

Based on these examples, Marner should get in the neighbourhood of:
8.5-9M x 3
10M x 5
10.5-11 x 6
11-11.5 x 7
11.5-12 x 8

The tax state thing is offset by the fact that Stamkos is a goal scoring center, and those players get premiums on their contracts.


The best comparable IMO is Patrick Kane’s second contract. Almost identical production on their ELC’s. Already comparable players and play style. Heck, similar development too.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Crosby (17.3% x 5)
McDavid (16.67% x 8)
Kariya (Not in the cap era)
Ovechkin (16.82% x 13)
Malkin (14.77% x 5)
Staal (10.23% x 3)
Stamkos (11.66% x 5)

So all centers in the cap area expect for Ovie who got a 13 year deal. Dont see how any could be used as a comparison to Marner.

There is also the fact a lot of those guys actually won some playoff rounds before their huge contracts.

 

[MyBudJT]

So all centers in the cap area expect for Ovie who got a 13 year deal. Dont see how any could be used as a comparison to Marner.

There is also the fact a lot of those guys actually won some playoff rounds before their huge contracts.

Fair enough. But the point is, he is in very high end company, and will get paid like it.

Also, the playoff round argument went out the window the moment the Dubas decided to pay Nylander and Matthews for their "accomplishments".

 

[thewave]

Crosby (17.3% x 5)
McDavid (16.67% x 8)
Kariya (Not in the cap era)
Ovechkin (16.82% x 13)
Malkin (14.77% x 5)
Staal (10.23% x 3)
Stamkos (11.66% x 5)

Edit:
Based on these examples, Marner should get in the neighbourhood of:
8.5-9M x 3
10M x 5
10.5-11 x 6
11-11.5 x 7
11.5-12 x 8

I put Matthews playing 2C in the Stamkos (Just won a rocket) category. He is not at prime Malkin level, prime Malkin took a turn at leading the entire league in pts. Staal is also about right but Matthews is better. Ovi was also a league leader. Marner should be at around 8.5m x 5 TBH where Matthews should have been 10 x 5y

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The tax state thing is offset by the fact that Stamkos is a goal scoring center, and those players get premiums on their contracts.


The best comparable IMO is Patrick Kane’s second contract. Almost identical production on their ELC’s. Already comparable players and play style. Heck, similar development too.

The problem is a lot of these guys signed their 2nd contracts midway through the ELCs. For example Kane signed his halfway through his final ELC season.

I would still say Kane is likely the best comparable but if you want to ignore UFA/RFA then you can look at Kuch who put up 40 goals and 100 points and had multiple PPG playoffs runs under his belt as an upper limit. Yes Florida taxes are different for home games but still no way Marner should get over 10 million if you look at actual comparables who you know play the position he plays. First time I have seen so many centers used as comprables for a winger. I'm pretty sure it is being done so when the overpayment happens it can be used to make Marner look less greedy.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Fair enough. But the point is, he is in very high end company, and will get paid like it.

Also, the playoff round argument went out the window the moment the Dubas decided to pay Nylander and Matthews for their "accomplishments".

I agree with that. Dubas is giving out comprable contracts based purely on regular season numbers and not incorporating that these comprable players also pushed their teams to cup wins or deep playoff pushes before they got their money. None of the leafs have done f*** all outside the regular season and we are going to pay them like they are cup winners.

 

[Mess]

It should be 8 years if he's getting that much.

5 or 6 years should put him under 10 mill, if not under 9.5 mill for a 5 year deal.

Matthews deal should have been around $10 mil for his 5 year term.

Based on Matthews offering 3 X $9 mil bridge deal (putting the price of RFA years at $9 mil) and Leafs buying only 1 X UFA year (putting a price of UFA years at $15 mil)

So the contract would break down as $9 mil +$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil (4 X RFA) + $15 mil (1 X UFA) = $51 mil over 5 = $10.2 mil AAV.

So I agree Marner should come in below Matthews on Leafs pay scale, so it would put him below $10 mil on a similar 5 year deal, buying only 1 x UFA year.

Matthews contract @ 8 years should've been $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil = $96 mil /8 years = $ 12 mil AAV buying 4 X UFA years, and falling just below McDavid @ $12.5 mil AAV (=$10+10+10+10+15+15+15+15 = $100 mil/8 years), but not $11.634 for only 1 UFA year as that puts that year at $58.17 (total) - $9 X 4 (RFA years) = $22.17 mil (UFA year) = $11.634 AAV over 5.

Leafs problem however is Leafs overpaid Matthews so significantly as if his $11.634 AAV was based on 4 X RFA + 4 X UFA years that now Marner will demand the same overpayment on a shorter term than max length as well, due to very bad past precedence setting prior contract, that Marner is now using as his comparable in terms of Leafs own internal payscale.

Using that same structure for Marner as Matthews on a 6 year deal (so that all 3 of Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't hit UFA after 5 years together)

Year 1 @ $9 mil +Year 2 @ $9 mil + Year 3 @ $9 mil + Year 4 @ $9 mil + Year 5 @ $15 mil + Year @ $15 mil = $66 mil / 6 years = $11 mil AAV.

So my expectations are ~$11 mil on a 6 year term.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The tax state thing is offset by the fact that Stamkos is a goal scoring center, and those players get premiums on their contracts.


The best comparable IMO is Patrick Kane’s second contract. Almost identical production on their ELC’s. Already comparable players and play style. Heck, similar development too.

That means he gets ~9.3 mill x 5.

 

[Cor]

That means he gets ~9.3 mill x 5.

Roughly, yes.

The only way we even consider double digits (and that’s like 10 even) is if it’s a 7-8 year term

 

[MyBudJT]

Roughly, yes.

The only way we even consider double digits (and that’s like 10 even) is if it’s a 7-8 year term

If 9.3 x 5 were his value, then you'd have to think a 6 year deal should be about 10, no?

7-8 year term would be 10.5-11 at least, IMO.

 

[Killer Orcas]

Not a chance he takes penny less then 10.56 per year as that's what plenty of teams would offer for 2 firsts a 2nd and 3rd compensation for offer sheet. Doubt anybody willing to give up 4 firsts that has cap space but 2 firsts 2nd and 3rd pretty sure most teams in league would offer. That's where it starts for Leafs to sign him. He's be crazy to sign before with Leafs unless they offer more then that and or he takes discount to stay. He's arguably their best player doubt he settles for 3rd highest paid but that's just my opinion.

 

[Walshy7]

Stamkos is in a non-taxed state. Using Stamkos as an example would be approximately 10M x 5 years. I editted my post above about "comparable" values:

Based on these examples, Marner should get in the neighbourhood of:
8.5-9M x 3
10M x 5
10.5-11 x 6
11-11.5 x 7
11.5-12 x 8

this isnt really relevant to what contract marner should get but surely the non tax thing gets offset by all the endorsement deals. Marner is not a chance to be a face of an insurance company in Florida, Kucherov I bet has limited endorsements in florida (I bet Russia he kills it though). Zach Hyman is the radio voice for sokoloff lawyers for crying out loud.

Marner is in about 3 commercials right now for different companies.

Also its only no state tax they still pay full federal tax