Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[MyBudJT]

this isnt really relevant to what contract marner should get but surely the non tax thing gets offset by all the endorsement deals. Marner is not a chance to be a face of an insurance company in Florida, Kucherov I bet has limited endorsements in florida (I bet Russia he kills it though). Zach Hyman is the radio voice for sokoloff lawyers for crying out loud.

Marner is in about 3 commercials right now for different companies.

Also its only no state tax they still pay full federal tax

I get what you're saying, but I'm not so convinced that endorsement deals is a good negotiation tactic.

"Hey Mitch! If you work X amount of hours for X amount of companies, you can make a lot more money!" You're basically telling the guy that he needs to work more to get paid more. Now, I get he's been doing it and will likely to continue to do it. And he'll make more money with endorsements in Toronto than other areas.... but telling people to get paid elsewhere just doesn't sit right.

 

[willmma]

The Score: Projecting Mitch Marner's Next Contract

Projecting Mitch Marner's next contract

After a lost of hoopla they reach
$9.25 x 6 years

 

[Stamkos4life]

I'm not going to argue about Matthews anymore. The Leafs paid the 2nd best U22 player the 2nd most amount of money. If you think that is an overpay, then I guess you just don't want Matthews on this team

The difference is that McDavid is the best player in the league. Matthew's isnt even top 10.

Someone can think auston is overpaid and still want him on the team.

If you think it is not an over pay I guess you just cant take the blue goggles off. (See how silly that is?)

 

[Menzinger]

So I think we can all agree comparing to Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Malkin is a no go for obvious reasons.

Using Stamkos, he’d get around 9.3M x 5 years.

Stamkos is also a goal scoring centre so the comparison there is perplexing

 

[GrunbeldDragonKnight]

The difference is that McDavid is the best player in the league. Matthew's isnt even top 10.

Someone can think auston is overpaid and still want him on the team.

If you think it is not an over pay I guess you just cant take the blue goggles off. (See how silly that is?)

No no you don't get it... We are paying Matthews because he will eventually become the best or second best player in the league. Haven't you heard? The Leafs are the first and only organization in the NHL to pay premium for potential instead of results!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Matthews deal should have been around $10 mil for his 5 year term.

Based on Matthews offering 3 X $9 mil bridge deal (putting the price of RFA years at $9 mil) and Leafs buying only 1 X UFA year (putting a price of UFA years at $15 mil)

So the contract would break down as $9 mil +$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil (4 X RFA) + $15 mil (1 X UFA) = $51 mil over 5 = $10.2 mil AAV.

So I agree Marner should come in below Matthews on Leafs pay scale, so it would put him below $10 mil on a similar 5 year deal,buying on 1 UFA year.

Matthews contract @ 8 years should've been $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil = $96 mil /8 years = $ 12 mil AAV buying 4 X UFA years, and falling just below McDavid @ $12.5 mil AAV (=$10+10+10+10+15+15+15+15 = $100 mil/8 years), but not $11.634 for only 1 UFA year as that puts that year at $58.17 (total) - $9 X 4 (RFA years) = $22.17 mil (UFA year)
= $11.634 AAV over 5.

Leafs problem however is Leafs overpaid Matthews so significantly as if his $11.634 AAV was based on 4 X RFA + 4 X UFA years that now Marner will demand the same overpayment on a shorter term than max length as well, due to very bad past precedence setting prior contract, that Marner is now using as his comparable in terms of Leafs own internal payscale.

Using that same structure for Marner as Matthews on a 6 year deal (so that all 3 of Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't hit UFA after 5 years together)

Year 1 @ $9 mil +Year 2 @ $9 mil + Year 3 @ $9 mil + Year 4 @ $9 mil + Year 5 @ $15 mil + Year @ $15 mil = $66 mil / 6 years = $11 mil AAV.

So my expectations are ~$11 mil on a 6 year term.

If you are going to use McDavid, at least put them on the same cap scale. McDavid got that money on a 75 mill cap. Matthews got his on an 83 mill cap, which if you go by cap percentage, would be the equivalence of 10.5 mill for 5 years on a 75 mill cap (or McDavid would have got 13.83 mill on an 83 mill cap if he signed at this time). That means Matthews should have got 13.28 mill if he were to get a 12 mill AAV deal on a 75 mill cap, which I am pretty sure is close to what Matthews was asking for on an 8 year deal.

 

[Walshy7]

I get what you're saying, but I'm not so convinced that endorsement deals is a good negotiation tactic.

"Hey Mitch! If you work X amount of hours for X amount of companies, you can make a lot more money!" You're basically telling the guy that he needs to work more to get paid more. Now, I get he's been doing it and will likely to continue to do it. And he'll make more money with endorsements in Toronto than other areas.... but telling people to get paid elsewhere just doesn't sit right.

telling people "hey that guy doesn't pay taxes like I do" also irrelevant. Are you going to complain to your boss someone in florida doing the same job gets less taxed than you?.

Those endorsements don't happen unless he is a leaf, im not saying the leafs tell him to go do them but they are a by-product of being a leaf. Its also not a Hollywood movie it'd be a couple hours max to shoot a commercial, I get there are more than 1 commercial but after its done it airs over and over again not like he goes in day after day like its a job

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If 9.3 x 5 were his value, then you'd have to think a 6 year deal should be about 10, no?

7-8 year term would be 10.5-11 at least, IMO.

Depends on how you translate it.

9.3 mill is 11.20% (which is a little bit more than Kane, but let's say Marner earns that). How much extra percentage do you think an extra 3 UFA years is worth? 2% would put him at 11 mill AAV, and 2% is the difference between Matthews' rumoured asks for 5 and 8 years. 10.16 mill is a bit more than 1% for the three extra years.

So I would say 11*8 is the absolute maximum before you start overpaying. So if Dubas and Marner are close, they are probably trying to bridge 10-10.5 and 11 mill on an 8 year deal, or perhaps cutting 500k on the ranges for each year reduced.

Otherwise, a deal is probably not getting done until Marner at least explores his options with an offer sheet.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Projecting Mitch Marner's next contract

Verdict: 6 years, $55.5 million ($9.25M AAV)

 

[Cor]

Stamkos is also a goal scoring centre so the comparison there is perplexing

Oh, I 100% agree. P.Kane is the comparable for me no doubt. It’s almost the exact same situations, except Kane had a 30G season and Marner didn’t, do you could argue Marner should get a bit less based on that.


Everyone is pulling these comparables of goal scoring centres and it doesn’t make sense to me, but if we are going to look at that, Stamkos is the one IMO and while it doesn’t make sense as a comparable, you still can’t justify the Matthews ask from Marner’s camp or wanting 12.5M long term

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Stamkos is also a goal scoring centre so the comparison there is perplexing

You can use Kane and get to the same conclusion though.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Not a chance he takes penny less then 10.56 per year as that's what plenty of teams would offer for 2 firsts a 2nd and 3rd compensation for offer sheet. Doubt anybody willing to give up 4 firsts that has cap space but 2 firsts 2nd and 3rd pretty sure most teams in league would offer. That's where it starts for Leafs to sign him. He's be crazy to sign before with Leafs unless they offer more then that and or he takes discount to stay. He's arguably their best player doubt he settles for 3rd highest paid but that's just my opinion.

How comfortable is he moving on from Toronto though? Often something fans forget when it comes to offer sheets.

 

[Nithoniniel]

No no you don't get it... We are paying Matthews because he will eventually become the best or second best player in the league. Haven't you heard? The Leafs are the first and only organization in the NHL to pay premium for potential instead of results!

We've paid based on the same kind of factors as everybody else. People just haven't caught on because our guys share ice time to a higher degree than most of their comparables.

 

[4thline]

Based on Matthews offering 3 X $9 mil bridge deal (putting the price of RFA years at $9 mil) and Leafs buying only 1 X UFA year (putting a price of UFA years at $15 mil)

So the contract would break down as $9 mil +$9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil (4 X RFA) + $15 mil (1 X UFA) = $51 mil over 5 = $10.2 mil AAV.
.

The truck size hole in your model is that the 4th year would be valued more like a UFA year than an RFA. 3 years of cap inflation + arb rights. There's no chance in hell he'd be signing a 1 year deal at 9, let alone including it in his valuation long term.

9+9+9+13+15= 55 / 5 = 11

 

[MyBudJT]

telling people "hey that guy doesn't pay taxes like I do" also irrelevant. Are you going to complain to your boss someone in florida doing the same job gets less taxed than you?.

Those endorsements don't happen unless he is a leaf, im not saying the leafs tell him to go do them but they are a by-product of being a leaf. Its also not a Hollywood movie it'd be a couple hours max to shoot a commercial, I get there are more than 1 commercial but after its done it airs over and over again not like he goes in day after day like its a job

It’s not irrelevant though. Player 1 is in Florida. Player 2 is in Toronto. They have the same contracts. Player 1 gets to take home more money than Player 2 for doing the same job.

 

[ACC1224]

How comfortable is he moving on from Toronto though? Often something fans forget when it comes to offer sheets.

He has zero interest in moving on.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He has zero interest in moving on.

Then advantage Dubas, something he did not have as much with Matthews and Nylander most likely.

 

[ACC1224]

Then advantage Dubas, something he did not have as much with Matthews and Nylander most likely.

Yeah, agreed.
Leafs don't want him moving on either.
I've said before, my understanding is the deal needs to be constructed so all parties can save face.

 

[diceman934]

Over the past 2 seasons:

PPG
1.05 Matthews
0.99 Marner

I'll give durability to Marner any day, he knows how to avoid putting himself into one-on-one battles that he can't win.

Lol. Well since Jan 1st 2018. It is different now is it not.

He also does not avoid areas of the ice. That area is covered by your Favourite...nicely I may add.

 

[diceman934]

Something has to give.

Although Im extremely nervous about Matthews’ desire to win, I wouldnt give up on him right now.

Same with Nylander, although I think he’s the logical choice to move.

If Marner wants too much money on a short term contract, then he might have to go too.

I bet Boston has no trouble signing McAvoy. And I think he’s a more valuable player than Marner.

Lol McAvoy more valuable then Marner. Stop smoking that stuff it is making you delusional

 

[diceman934]

Projecting Mitch Marner's next contract

Verdict: 6 years, $55.5 million ($9.25M AAV)

That will not be the deal. It will be at least 10m average on a 5 year deal. Internal salary structure is what it is going to be.

 

[Nineteen67]

Lol McAvoy more valuable then Marner. Stop smoking that stuff it is making you delusional

Ok, Paul.

 

[Walshy7]

It’s not irrelevant though. Player 1 is in Florida. Player 2 is in Toronto. They have the same contracts. Player 1 gets to take home more money than Player 2 for doing the same job.

well then if he waits until an offersheet or UFA then he can go play in florida if he likes. Toronto and Canada has taxes everyone pays them, I doubt hockey players (athletes in general) pay the full amount here anyway, due to loopholes. I think I read they can incorperate themselves which lowers their tax etc.

At the end of the day ask to be traded, wait for ufa or tough shit get paid here and pay your taxes. There is no way its as big advantage as its made out to be though higher tax teams wouldn't just allow an advantage like that if it were that big

 

[Joey Hoser]

He has zero interest in moving on.

I'm kind of dumbfounded that anyone thinks Marner is remotely interesting in leaving the Leafs in a giant controversy over money. Like, literally everything about the guy implies the exact opposite.

 

[Brown Dog]

They’re not fans. What do you think they are doing it for?

To earn a living, yes. But also to be successful and win a championship, no?