Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

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93LEAFS

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Problem is, we give him 13.5 mill x 8, we can't afford other guys. 2 mill may not seem like a lot but that is a quality depth player you just lost in some way or another.

Meanwhile, you give him 5 years and maybe you end up paying him 15-15.5 mill on his next deal, but that cap will probably be close to 100 mill by then. So while you did not get as much of a steal in the last 3 years of that deal as you would if you gave him 13.5, you were able to afford to add guys for a playoff run in all of the years of his contract, rather than being totally poor for the first 2 or 3 years of Matthews contract and then having a lot of extra wiggle room for the last 3 years.
That's assuming Matthews signed when his current deal runs out. I think that's a crazy something to just expect to happen, and ignores why it is so risky to give him 5 years. You walked an elite player right to UFA while making him the 2nd highest paid player in the league. That's a joke.
 
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thewave

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Yeah, I would have done 13.5M for 8 years for Matthews. Players would have been making more than 13.5M about 5 years into that deal anyways.

We can't get no term and give high $$. That is why Marner's contract has to be right or he needs to be traded.

Only way to build a team right now is trading your best kids that aren't D for assortments of picks and good 60pts type guys 2-3 years into their 6x6 contracts, obviously protect your franchise C as well. In our case that's JT Nylander deal now looks acceptable and trade Mitch and Matthews for the mother-load, get Doughty and sign Jake @5.5m. Grow the D abd pay the D as they are and will become the most valuable assets.
 

SeaOfBlue

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That's assuming Matthews signed when his current deal runs out. I think that's a crazy something to just expect to happen, and ignores why it is so risky to give him 5 years. You walked an elite player right to UFA while making him the 2nd highest paid player in the league. That's a joke.

It's a reasonable assumption, and quite frankly, reality for a lot of high end RFA's now. Besides Tavares, when was the last time a guy of Matthews' caliber decided to walk in UFA during their prime? I don't think anyone has in the cap era, despite there being countless 5 year deals signed by these high end RFA's walking them straight into UFA. So unless there is a toxic culture, we totally low ball him on his next contract, or we are a crappy team, then the vast majority of cases say that we have a good shot signing him later... And quite likely at a more team-friendly deal too.
 
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Cor

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That's assuming Matthews signed when his current deal runs out. I think that's a crazy something to just expect to happen, and ignores why it is so risky to give him 5 years. You walked an elite player right to UFA while making him the 2nd highest paid player in the league. That's a joke.

Chances are far higher that he signs an extension, then they are for him walking to UFA.
 

93LEAFS

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It's a reasonable assumption, and quite frankly, reality for a lot of high end RFA's now. Besides Tavares, when was the last time a guy of Matthews' caliber decided to walk in UFA during their prime? I don't think anyone has in the cap era, despite there being countless 5 year deals signed by these high end RFA's walking them straight into UFA. So unless there is a toxic culture, we totally low ball him on his next contract, or we are a crappy team, then the vast majority of cases say that we have a good shot signing him later... And quite likely at a more team-friendly deal too.
I think its a very risky premise to defend the deal.

When is the last time a guy was made the 2nd highest player in the league on an RFA deal and only gave up one UFA year? Why do you think that same person is going to be easier to negotiate with when he can sign with any team?
 

thewave

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It's a reasonable assumption, and quite frankly, reality for a lot of high end RFA's now. Besides Tavares, when was the last time a guy of Matthews' caliber decided to walk in UFA during their prime? I don't think anyone has in the cap era, despite there being countless 5 year deals signed by these high end RFA's walking them straight into UFA. So unless there is a toxic culture, we totally low ball him on his next contract, or we are a crappy team, then the vast majority of cases say that we have a good shot signing him later... And quite likely at a more team-friendly deal too.

All bets are off now, RFA officially means nothing as of now, no savings. The reality is it is more cost effective to trade most RFA for the 25+ crowd. Kids don't win, 25-30 year olds have experience to win now. So we pay top dollar to inexperienced PO performers and keep losing in 1st rounds. Seems dumb, smart money is now on balanced teams in mid 20s.
 

93LEAFS

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Well, to be fair... its no different than the risk of any UFA deal, correct?
The deal can't be justified by saying. Well, we will sign him one to a more team friendly deal next time and two, that he should be expected to stay. He signed for 5 years that walks him right to UFA, to automatically expect the next team deal to one be more favorable, and two for him to stay is just foolish. Those shouldn't be justifications for this deal. We made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league and bought one UFA year. Marner for 12.5X8 is a better deal, because atleast you are buying 3 years that are supposed to be the most expensive. But, because one deal is theoretical, and the other one has been already signed, people will defend the already signed deal to the death.
 

Cor

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Well, to be fair... its no different than the risk of any UFA deal, correct?

Exactly.

Whether we brought him to UFA. 1 year after UFA, or 4 years after UFA, the chances on him leaving are the same.
 

18leafsfan18

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The deal can't be justified by saying. Well, we will sign him one to a more team friendly deal next time and two, that he should be expected to stay. He signed for 5 years that walks him right to UFA, to automatically expect the next team deal to one be more favorable, and two for him to stay is just foolish. Those shouldn't be justifications for this deal. We made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league and bought one UFA year. Marner for 12.5X8 is a better deal, because atleast you are buying 3 years that are supposed to be the most expensive. But, because one deal is theoretical, and the other one has been already signed, people will defend the already signed deal to the death.

How do you know what a UFA year is worth ?
 

93LEAFS

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Exactly.

Whether we brought him to UFA. 1 year after UFA, or 4 years after UFA, the chances on him leaving are the same.
except you lose him for less prime years. By this logic, we should have just signed him for 3 years for the savings because he'll re-sign anyway.
 

MyBudJT

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The deal can't be justified by saying. Well, we will sign him one to a more team friendly deal next time and two, that he should be expected to stay. He signed for 5 years that walks him right to UFA, to automatically expect the next team deal to one be more favorable, and two for him to stay is just foolish. Those shouldn't be justifications for this deal. We made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league and bought one UFA year. Marner for 12.5X8 is a better deal, because atleast you are buying 3 years that are supposed to be the most expensive. But, because one deal is theoretical, and the other one has been already signed, people will defend the already signed deal to the death.

Why are you going on about team friendly deals now? If he wouldn't signed a team friendly deal after a 5 yr deal, he's probably not going to after an 8 yrs deal. The risk walking is the same. You also hold less risk in your 2nd deal, since you'll be re-signing him at 25/26 rather than 28/29, and will be eating up more prime years.

I understand where you're coming from with Marner, and largely agree... I just don't see the "significant risk in bringing him to UFA 1". If he walks, he walks, he woulda walked a couple years anyways.
 

93LEAFS

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Which wouldn't work for the team with other players they needed to sign.

So they made the deal shorter to save on cap space to continue building the team.
and risked losing a more valuable asset 3 years earlier than the players they are going to retrain. All the RFA negotiations have been terribly handled. Justification that he will re-sign in 5 years to a better deal is just a flimsy management defending argument. Its the same stuff you heard about Marner being a local kid and he won't be like Nylander, and will take a team friendly deal, and now are willing to let him go because of his demands. When a year ago this was an unthinkable proposition because RFA's don't usually move on.
 

93LEAFS

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Why are you going on about team friendly deals now? If he wouldn't signed a team friendly deal after a 5 yr deal, he's probably not going to after an 8 yrs deal. The risk walking is the same. You also hold less risk in your 2nd deal, since you'll be re-signing him at 25/26 rather than 28/29, and will be eating up more prime years.

I understand where you're coming from with Marner, and largely agree... I just don't see the "significant risk in bringing him to UFA 1". If he walks, he walks, he woulda walked a couple years anyways.
Because someone mentioned that we will get more team friendly terms on Matthews 3rd deal, which I thought was a ridiculous premise given how this negotiation went.
 
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thewave

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imagine if this team had won anything of consequence?

My god, the contracts....

RFA players are a bad deal now. You have to pay for them to learn how to play in the POs. No discounts exist, no savings, no reason to keep them tbh.
 

Pi

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Some teams are able to create a culture where guys take team friendly deals or are more skilled negotiators.

What he shouldn't do is make stupid statements in his media availability time that box him into a corner. He clearly did a bad job on all the RFA negotiations.

Yeah, in theory it makes sense. He said he wanted the players to feel comfortable and want to be here blah blah but in the end he got ripped off in every negotiation so far.

If he screws up the Marner contract, I would want to get him an even more experienced guy who has been a GM before. Mike Gillis has been an agent and GM of a very successful team. I'd love for him to join the Leafs and take over CBA and contract related stuff.

The longer the Marner stuff drags on, the worse it will be for the Leafs IMO. He's just going to end up caving...and not get term and pay UFA money.

Don't have a lot of faith in Dubas negotiating contracts but do have faith in his ability to identify the right players needed to win.
 
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