Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[MyBudJT]

Because someone mentioned that we will get more team friendly terms on Matthews 3rd deal, which I thought was a ridiculous premise given how this negotiation went.

Well, it could be more team friendly in the sense that there is lower risk in the 3rd deal (less concern of him aging poorly)

 

[MyBudJT]

Why would that be so outrageous for him to make 13.5 ?

Still less then McDavid.

Because he isn't McDavid...

McDavid is the best player in Hockey.

Matthews MIGHT currently be in the top 15... depending on who you ask...

 

[93LEAFS]

Well, it could be more team friendly in the sense that there is lower risk in the 3rd deal (less concern of him aging poorly)

I think its foolish to justify the 5 years, just expecting to one get him to re-sign when he's a UFA and two, expecting us to get better terms. He signed the deal he did, and its a bad deal for the team. We made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league while buying only one UFA year.

 

[The CyNick]

And I disagree.

Edit to elaborate:

Matthews and Tavares do way more to create their own offense than a player like big-butt-in-front Andreychuk did.

And to say Marner does more than Matthews right now...no. Matthews' point pace was identical to Marner's with almost double the goal pace all while playing with greatly inferior linemates and likely dealing with lingering injury effects even after returning to the lineup.

There's just no comparison.

And on the flip side marner played against tougher competition, while being on the ice for more goals for than against and was a top penalty killer. And he managed to do that while staying healthy. Matthews should have played with nylander most of the season, but he couldn't find a rhythm with him, so willy was moved off the line. Real elite level players make anyone they play with look good. Take a peak at some of Crosby's linemates over the years. He still does his thing. Same with McDavid. The players that require the most excuses for their lack of elite level production are usually the players who are not actually elite to begin with.

You can't discount making the dates as a skill. Matthews for whatever reason hasn't been able to answer the bell every game. If he's always going to be a 60 game a year player is he worth more or less than another superstar who gives you 80 and does more in those games? Acting like it's not even close does a disservice to marner and is the reason we don't have him under contract right now. You disrespect a player of his calibre and you bet he's going to squeeze you for every dollar.

 

[MyBudJT]

I think its foolish to justify the 5 years, just expecting to one get him to re-sign when he's a UFA and two, expecting us to get better terms. He signed the deal he did, and its a bad deal for the team. We made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league while buying only one UFA year.

I'm not saying 3rd year will be better terms. I'm saying it'll be safer.

I'm not a fan of the contract myself... but I just don't think the whole UFA year thing matters a whole lot. This could be a huge advantage for us if Matthews can't prove to stay healthy year after year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think its a very risky premise to defend the deal.

When is the last time a guy was made the 2nd highest player in the league on an RFA deal and only gave up one UFA year? Why do you think that same person is going to be easier to negotiate with when he can sign with any team?

I'm pretty sure that is exactly how both the Crosby and Malkin deals ended up going down.

Bergeron's didn't even buy one year. He walked straight through the RFA years to UFA. He did that with one 70 point season too. There are a ton of examples with other high end guys who are not quite as good as Matthews and did not get paid like him, but only sold off 1 UFA year and then re-signed with the team afterwards.

The best part is that all of these deals were typically seen as bad deals at first, and then most of them turned into steals.

 

[The CyNick]

It's amazing people forget that Matthews gets sheltered minutes considering his status. Denial is a SOB, they don't want to accept the huge overpay and all the supporting evidence. Obviously Marner feels insulted, they gave Matthews 2m of his potential sallary and then said, you're not as good despite he playing tougher comp and putting up more numbers.

It's really funny how people dig in on him. I think he's great, but he hasn't proven he's a top five player in the game like a McDavid has. People can't accept that he's been paid for what we hope he becomes not what he has done.

 

[The CyNick]

Come on. Rounding? Did you know Matthews scored almost 80 points and Marner barely more than 90?

20 point gap. Do you think that's insignificant?

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm pretty sure that is exactly how both the Crosby and Malkin deals ended up going down.

Bergeron's didn't even buy one year. He walked straight through the RFA years to UFA. He did that with one 70 point season too. There are a ton of examples with other high end guys who are not quite as good as Matthews and did not get paid like him, but only sold off 1 UFA year and then re-signed with the team afterwards.

Bergeron wasn't made the 2nd highest paid player in the league.

It may happen, but you can't just expect that to happen to justify this deal. Its ignoring the significant risk attached.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

20 point gap. Do you think that's insignificant?

Context: 14 game gap too.

 

[The CyNick]

Context: 14 game gap too.

Are you trying to help my position or yours with that comment?

 

[18leafsfan18]

am I missing what Mathews has done to put him in that conversation?
I love the kid but come on now. I thought the entitlement years were apparently behind us.

and if he wanted 13.5 now, imagine a Cup win?

More goals per game then every other player in the game other then Ovi.

He is literally the 2nd most productive goal scorer in the league in his 3 ELC years.

How do you not pay that guy ?

 

[MyBudJT]

Bergeron wasn't made the 2nd highest paid player in the league.

It may happen, but you can't just expect that to happen to justify this deal. Its ignoring the significant risk attached.

I'm just confused as to what your stance is.

On one hand, you're complaining that we paid too much. (2nd highest paid player)
On the other hand, you're complaining we didn't sign him for long enough (too much risk that he will walk in his prime).

Don't you think there would be even MORE risk of him walking had we forced his hand to accept significantly less? What is most important is that we maintain a good relationship with Auston, and then the risk of him leaving will decrease.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm just confused as to what your stance is.

On one hand, you're complaining that we paid too much. (2nd highest paid player)
On the other hand, you're complaining we didn't sign him for long enough (too much risk that he will walk in his prime).

Don't you think there would be even MORE risk of him walking had we forced his hand to accept significantly less? What is most important is that we maintain a good relationship with Auston, and then the risk of him leaving will decrease.

We should have paid the 13.5 for 8 if it was between that and what he signed for. If the belief is he'll re-sign anyway (which is not a premise I agree with), we should have just give him the 3x9.5 that was talked about.

If you are going to make someone the 2nd highest paid player in the league, don't buy up only one UFA year. That's why Marner for 12.5x8, is a better deal than what we signed Matthews for.

 

[The CyNick]

More goals per game then every other player in the game other then Ovi.

He is literally the 2nd most productive goal scorer in the league in his 3 ELC years.

How do you not pay that guy ?

Great.

If only teams got points based on their average production instead of actual production.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Bergeron wasn't made the 2nd highest paid player in the league.

It may happen, but you can't just expect that to happen to justify this deal.

Bergeron was also nowhere near the top in the league at that time. Matthews is near the top of the league.

Like if you are upset about the term because you are convinced Matthews is going to hop on a plane to Arizona at his earliest convenience, then that is fine. Tavares did it, but he was the only one (and I think TOR has a lot more to offer Matthews than NYI did with Tavares). I'm going to trust on the side of dozens of other guys who did not do that, and that Dubas, who has had direct contact with Matthews and his agent enough to gauge whether Matthews has a longer term future in Toronto beyond this deal, was able to make the right call.

If he ends up being wrong and totally misplayed it, then we can criticize him in 5 years when Matthews walks for nothing. Right now though, let's give it a rest. Maybe people don't agree with the type of deal and we should have just paid more for a longer term, but in terms of value, it's not any worse than if he took an equivalently fair 8 year offer... And it's not like Dubas blazed any new trails for deals anymore than all of those other GM's in the past did with their own RFA's.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Because he isn't McDavid...

McDavid is the best player in Hockey.

Matthews MIGHT currently be in the top 15... depending on who you ask...

Obviously your opinion is nowhere close to the teams. I believe the team might be a better judge of players.

Was in top 10 according to TSN before this past season where he posted 37 goals and 73 points in 68 games.

 

[Duffman955]

If someone offer sheets Marner, I wouldn't even match above 10mil aav

Take the 4 first rounders, trade some to get a top pairing Dman.

Spend the rest of the cap savings on a new forward. Panarin maybe. If not, maybe get Kessel at a discount.

 

[93LEAFS]

Bergeron was also nowhere near the top in the league at that time. Matthews is near the top of the league.

Like if you are upset about the term because you are convinced Matthews is going to hop on a plane to Arizona at his earliest convenience, then that is fine. Tavares did it, but he was the only one (and I think TOR has a lot more to offer Matthews than NYI did with Tavares). I'm going to trust on the side of dozens of other guys who did not do that, and that Dubas, who has had direct contact with Matthews and his agent enough to gauge whether Matthews has a longer term future in Toronto beyond this deal, was able to make the right call.

If he ends up being wrong and totally misplayed it, then we can criticize him in 5 years when Matthews walks for nothing. Right now though, let's give it a rest. Maybe people don't agree with the type of deal and we should have just paid more for a longer term, but in terms of value, it's not any worse than if he took an equivalently fair 8 year offer... And it's not like Dubas blazed any new trails for deals anymore than all of those other GM's in the past did with their own RFA's.

I disagree. Dubas re-set the market. The going rate was 8 years for elite players over the past 3 years. What happened a decade ago is outdated. Eichel, Drai and McDavid are the comparables.

Dubas was able to gage from these agents to make the statement we will keep all 3 and appears to have misplayed his hand. Then you get the numbers he pitched to the Leafs brass and leaked to Mirtle (10m for Matthews, 7 for Marner and 6 for Nylander), and its pretty clear he completely misplayed his hand.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Great.

If only teams got points based on their average production instead of actual production.

Can't score goals in games your not playing.

You can ignore the facts all you want. He is one of the top 2 or 3 best goal scorers in the league.

You Dubas haters are all the same, no reason to look at stats or facts, just your bad opinions that matter.

 

[The Apologist]

More goals per game then every other player in the game other then Ovi.

He is literally the 2nd most productive goal scorer in the league in his 3 ELC years.

How do you not pay that guy ?

How many games again? Thats how.
Mathews is incredibly talented but has yet to establish that he belongs in the upper tier, that he can carry a team, that he deserves the hardware.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

They will re-sign Marner. Kappy will sign a short term bridge deal. AJ will likely go to arb. If AJ's AAV is too high from arb which is likely then he will get moved or Leafs can always decline it due to CAP. This is life in the CBA world. Marleau and Z get moved to free up space to sign a couple defenders.

 

[The Apologist]

Can't score goals in games your not playing.

You can ignore the facts all you want. He is one of the top 2 or 3 best goal scorers in the league.

You Dubas haters are all the same, no reason to look at stats or facts, just your bad opinions that matter.

youre right. You cant score goals jn games youre not playing in. You also cant help your team win games youre not playing in.
Thats another fact for you.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

And on the flip side marner played against tougher competition, while being on the ice for more goals for than against and was a top penalty killer. And he managed to do that while staying healthy. Matthews should have played with nylander most of the season, but he couldn't find a rhythm with him, so willy was moved off the line. Real elite level players make anyone they play with look good. Take a peak at some of Crosby's linemates over the years. He still does his thing. Same with McDavid. The players that require the most excuses for their lack of elite level production are usually the players who are not actually elite to begin with.

You can't discount making the dates as a skill. Matthews for whatever reason hasn't been able to answer the bell every game. If he's always going to be a 60 game a year player is he worth more or less than another superstar who gives you 80 and does more in those games? Acting like it's not even close does a disservice to marner and is the reason we don't have him under contract right now. You disrespect a player of his calibre and you bet he's going to squeeze you for every dollar.

I agree the X factor with Matthews is can he stay healthy. If not, at worst he's in part with Marner. If yes, he's inarguably superior by quite a bit.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We should have paid the 13.5 for 8 if it was between that and what he signed for. If the belief is he'll re-sign anyway (which is not a premise I agree with), we should have just give him the 3x9.5 that was talked about.

If you are going to make someone the 2nd highest paid player in the league, don't buy up only one UFA year. That's why Marner for 12.5x8, is a better deal than what we signed Matthews for.

Personally, I think it comes down to the way you structure your other contracts. If you think you can compete now, which I am sure is what Dubas is thinking as he has a prime Tavares, then he'd probably want to have more money now and have to maybe pay Matthews and Marner more in years 6-8 than a guy who got an 8 year contract because by the time you get to those years, Tavares is nearing the end of his current deal and a lot of money opens up (and even if you bring back Tavares, it's probably not going to be nearly as expensive given the age he'd be). I understand your concern about whether or not they want to stay, but I would trust that Dubas can build a good enough relationship with his players to convince them to re-sign if he gives another fair offer. If he botched that, then I'll yell at him in 5 years when they walk. Right now, he signed Matthews to a fair contract, even if it wasn't the type that you were hoping for, and he even was able to get Nylander on a contract which would be easy for him to manage. I fully expect him to get Marner settled at a deal that makes sense for the Leafs, and makes Marner happy, just like he did with the other two.

My real concern is that I don't think 12.5 x 8 is a fair offer for Marner. I don't care if the cap has gone up by 8 mill since McDavid signed his deal, Marner is not worth McDavid money. If another team wants to give him McDavid money, then by all means, Dubas should just let him go.