Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[IPS]

Who starts the fire Dubas thread you think? Because there going to be people lining up for that one

That being said I think it's going to be 9.5M×3, I'm going to be disgusted but what are you going to do? I've supported this team for to long to stop now

Leafs always have my support. Pretty awesome how we've drafted all this elite talent and we can't even f***ing get one to sign for max term and none of them refuse to leave even one penny on the table.

Is this all just some unfortunate coincidence or is there something out there that just makes these kids hate Toronto and want to milk the team?

 

[jrgtml67]

My big question may we trade him if he doesn't sign by October. I dont think Dubas wants to go through that Nylander thing again. He said we learnt from it and would do it differently. But if ferris is being an idiot and Marner himself doesn't step in..a trade could happen. I hope it doesn't get to that, but his agent is an ass. I think mitch is staying out of it for now but as soon as camp starts the bigger clock starts ticking he may well step in. Nylander did..just took till the 11th hour and 30min mark.

Teammates usually stay of these things, but with mitch I wonder if any say hey dude I'd say something now. Or more likely, mitch has had enough and really does want to stay a leaf which I think he does, and says ok give me 3 choices I'll pick 1. As of what we know, and heard from Marner, hes letting Ferris do all, and wont do anything until he gets told it's super close or it's done. However I feel that may change with what I mentioned above about camp and season.

Our biggest issue isn't JTs money its Matthew's deal. Ya I know hes a center, but Marners missed way less games, and brings that intangible energy, and fun side to the ice everyday. AM doesn't have the same drive nor personality, and I feel our cup chances gravely go down if mitch isn't playing for us and I think Dubas knows that, and we have a window and obviously Ferris knows it.

I'd tell mitch here's 11.65 but for 6 to 8yr deal. Issue is he wants AM money so that means 11.65 at 5yrs. I'd be happy if it were AM at 6yrs just so all our big guys aren't up at the same time.

Itd be JT and Mitch, then AM then Nylander.

One last thought. I remember seeing a tweet that several GMs got the sense that Mitch doesn't want to leave Toronto (guaranteed he was offered an offer sheet and didn't sign it, how else would a rival GM know unless they spoke to Marner and Ferris) but also in the same tweet said Mitch and leafs are both getting frustrated because there seems to be a deal close (3yr) and long term not so much. That also tells me Mitch actually would rather long term. If a 3yr was that close, and basically offered it means the leafs were willing to go short term, and all the talk mitch wanted that, now would be wrong.

I dont know folks I hope he signs soon. I don't even care if he gets a bit more hes our best player, he drives whatever line, hes ever been on. Hes the only forward who's done that and that's special.

 

[jrgtml67]

Leafs always have my support. Pretty awesome how we've drafted all this elite talent and we can't even ****ing get one to sign for max term and none of them refuse to leave even one penny on the table.

Is this all just some unfortunate coincidence or is there something out there that just makes these kids hate Toronto and want to milk the team?

See what you're saying but I feel all our deals thus far were basically market value. JT got offered 2mill more chose us at 11. We over paid willie by 350k so not enough to justify complaining and AM I feel was bang on. The McDavid value deal with current cap allowance was equated to 13.68 so AM makes 2million less, and while has not lead league ever in scoring is 2nd or 3rd 5v5 scoring since his rookie year, also his 2 major injuries screwed up his chances or I bet hes top 4 in scoring easy.

Now mitch. Hes our best player, and by that I mean points, his raw skill, but intangibles like persona and how hes the only one that drives his line..if mitch is off his lines off, if hes on then the whole lines on fire. AM doesn't even do that. Your best player should be paid the most, I get he isn't a center but he brings too much to the table.

Option 1 for me if he wont sign, Dubas may have to trade Nylander, but not sure how because in order for that to make more room for Marners pay check we would need less salary back meaning not a grade A player. I really think willie will rebound this yr. He missed way too long, then just when he and AM started to go, AM got hurt again.

Odd note I have an odd feeling Jake maybe back on a 1yr deal BUT post Marner signing. I also feel we may get lucky and have Raatenen (who out played Marner by a touch) sign first, he does that and Dubas will praise the lord. Raatenen say does 10.25 over 7 or 8 with his stats better then mitch's (though not by a lot) what's ferris going to say lol

 

[Fogelhund]

Nylander was coming off 61 points in 82 games and Pasta was coming off 70 points in 75 games. All the comparables were in the leafs favor (Pasta, Ehlers, Larkin, Gaudreau) and somehow Nylander managed to blow them all out of the water. Same with Matthews. Dubas better not let Marner do the same thing, there’s no reason why we should be paying more than other teams for similar quality players.

Comparables? Gaudreau had ONE good year under his belt. Nylander two. Gaudreau signed at 9.25% of Cap, Nylander at 8.7%
Ehlers had one good season, and was was career lower PPG than Nylander. He came in at 8% of cap.
Larkin was a 0.57 PPG career player. One good season, after one poor season. 7.67% of cap.

Is almost like people lack an understanding of context.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Comparables? Gaudreau had ONE good year under his belt. Nylander two. Gaudreau signed at 9.25% of Cap, Nylander at 8.7%
Ehlers had one good season, and was was career lower PPG than Nylander. He came in at 8% of cap.
Larkin was a 0.57 PPG career player. One good season, after one poor season. 7.67% of cap.

Is almost like people lack an understanding of context.

Ah, that's the angle we're using?

Rantanen had TWO ppg seasons, and Marner only one.

So Rantanen will make at least as much as Marner, or Dubas is horrible at his job. Right?

 

[Fogelhund]

Oh, it’s based on points with no other context?

Ok.

Do that with Matthews now in relation to other 14-15% of cap comparables.

It's based on plenty of context. Like RFA salaries have a greater inflation rate now, than other players. RFA's are demanding, and getting more dollars, from all teams. Pasta played on the top line in hockey. Nylander had Hyman on his line, and a sophomore Center, as good as he is. I wonder how many points Nylander and Matthews would have, if they had someone like the Rat on their line?? Marchand had 85 points during Pasta's contract year, plus Bergeron.

I'm not sure why you are bringing up Matthews? I've never discussed his contract. We might as well be talking about whether Gold is overpriced or not currently, as it has just the same relevancy.

 

[Fogelhund]

Ah, that's the angle we're using?

Rantanen had TWO ppg seasons, and Marner only one.

So Rantanen will make at least as much as Marner, or Dubas is horrible at his job. Right?

Now you've posted without context. Term matters. Rantanen should be paid more though. How about we wait and see what happens before screaming, the sky is falling. Good for you to be excited at the opportunity to bash, "your favourite team" though. Must be exciting.

 

[Leafsfan74]

My big question may we trade him if he doesn't sign by October. I dont think Dubas wants to go through that Nylander thing again. He said we learnt from it and would do it differently. But if ferris is being an idiot and Marner himself doesn't step in..a trade could happen. I hope it doesn't get to that, but his agent is an ass. I think mitch is staying out of it for now but as soon as camp starts the bigger clock starts ticking he may well step in. Nylander did..just took till the 11th hour and 30min mark.

Teammates usually stay of these things, but with mitch I wonder if any say hey dude I'd say something now. Or more likely, mitch has had enough and really does want to stay a leaf which I think he does, and says ok give me 3 choices I'll pick 1. As of what we know, and heard from Marner, hes letting Ferris do all, and wont do anything until he gets told it's super close or it's done. However I feel that may change with what I mentioned above about camp and season.

Our biggest issue isn't JTs money its Matthew's deal. Ya I know hes a center, but Marners missed way less games, and brings that intangible energy, and fun side to the ice everyday. AM doesn't have the same drive nor personality, and I feel our cup chances gravely go down if mitch isn't playing for us and I think Dubas knows that, and we have a window and obviously Ferris knows it.

I'd tell mitch here's 11.65 but for 6 to 8yr deal. Issue is he wants AM money so that means 11.65 at 5yrs. I'd be happy if it were AM at 6yrs just so all our big guys aren't up at the same time.

Itd be JT and Mitch, then AM then Nylander.

One last thought. I remember seeing a tweet that several GMs got the sense that Mitch doesn't want to leave Toronto (guaranteed he was offered an offer sheet and didn't sign it, how else would a rival GM know unless they spoke to Marner and Ferris) but also in the same tweet said Mitch and leafs are both getting frustrated because there seems to be a deal close (3yr) and long term not so much. That also tells me Mitch actually would rather long term. If a 3yr was that close, and basically offered it means the leafs were willing to go short term, and all the talk mitch wanted that, now would be wrong.

I dont know folks I hope he signs soon. I don't even care if he gets a bit more hes our best player, he drives whatever line, hes ever been on. Hes the only forward who's done that and that's special.

Yes, you trade him if he squeezes you beyond what you are willing to pay. If he gives term, he makes the money, if not, you give him the comparable. I would be honest with his agent, no bluffing, "look, we cannot go over this, as such, we are exploring trade options. No hard feelings, it's a business and we need to run the team for multiple year success".

You don't need Marner to win a Cup. You don't need any one player. You need a team committed to winning. He's not the problem, but he needs to be the solution. I don't blame him for wanting to have the Leafs overpay him as well, but the line has to be drawn somewhere, Dubas was probably given this message. Marner can make good money on the side through endorsements and ads.

All of this headache comes from the Nylander negotiation which was horribly handled. I said it at the time that he should have been traded as well. You cannot over pay for so many players when you need depth and balance. As a fan you cannot just envision the greatness a player brings, you have to take everything into consideration. Nylander was more of the same they had with Kappy and others. He could have been moved for a stud on the blueline.

As someone said, it's about bragging rights for these young players. Nylander should have been the bearer of the message, "until you win something, you will sit or be traded if you try to control the team". Instead, they capitulated and didn't even win a round.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Comparables? Gaudreau had ONE good year under his belt. Nylander two. Gaudreau signed at 9.25% of Cap, Nylander at 8.7%
Ehlers had one good season, and was was career lower PPG than Nylander. He came in at 8% of cap.
Larkin was a 0.57 PPG career player. One good season, after one poor season. 7.67% of cap.

Is almost like people lack an understanding of context.

I think Gaudreau signed in October 2016 so he had a 64 point season and PPG season in his only 2 seasons of his ELC.

Overall I would say Nylander was overpaid at most around 250-500k largely because he only gave away 1 UFA year while most of his comparables either gave up 2 and or were paid a decent chunk of change less after the cap was adjusted. Overall I'm not worried as Nylander will be well worth it. I should be shocked if he doesnt break 70 points this year.

Ehlers is an interesting case and I think he gave up a bit of a discount. He had some very good underlying numbers at 5 on 5 and was due for a breakout. He had near identical p/60 and p1/60 at 5 on 5 to Nylander during the last 2 ELC years before they both signed respectively. Ehlers also had better goal scoring rates during his ELC. Perhaps most important is that Ehlers gave up 3 UFA years vs Nylander's 1 UFA year.

Larkin got the center premium and also gave up 1 UFA year but certainly didnt give his team a discount. Seemed pretty fair.

 

[kb]

Dubas is Dave Nonis Jr. It's bad

You have no access to reality?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Now you've posted without context. Term matters. Rantanen should be paid more though. How about we wait and see what happens before screaming, the sky is falling. Good for you to be excited at the opportunity to bash, "your favourite team" though. Must be exciting.

As a REAL fan of this team, I'm (rightfully) very upset at the unprecedented dramatic overpayments our gm is giving out. I genuinely believe, as a result of such overpayments, that the leafs won't have the cap space to be elite. So, yes. I'm VERY upset about it. Because I care far more about the team actually DOING WELL, than for making lame excuses/rationalizations for the atrocities committed by management.

It seems you agree that Rantanen deserves more money than Marner. So I'll give you that. Do you know how many people I've seen make the "back to back 60 point seasons" argument in regards to Nylander vs Pastrnak, only for them to deny that it also applies to Rantanen vs Marner? Will you agree that Dubas messed up big time if Marner makes significantly more money than Rantanen (including term in the equation)?

Pray tell... what do you think about the Matthews contract? Remember... you rationalized Nylander vs Pastrnak based SOLELY on ppg. When we compare Matthews elc ppg to other players who signed 14-15%, it's a flat out complete f***ing total JOKE.

 

[hfman]

i heard somewhere earlier today that he may or may not sign before training camp.

is there any truth to that?

 

[kb]

i heard somewhere earlier today that he may or may not sign before training camp.

is there any truth to that?

Well, those are the 2 options, so definitely.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

i heard somewhere earlier today that he may or may not sign before training camp.

is there any truth to that?

Nope. There is no truth to anything you hear

 

[hector morrison]

As a REAL fan of this team, I'm (rightfully) very upset at the unprecedented dramatic overpayments our gm is giving out. I genuinely believe, as a result of such overpayments, that the leafs won't have the cap space to be elite. So, yes. I'm VERY upset about it. Because I care far more about the team actually DOING WELL, than for making lame excuses/rationalizations for the atrocities committed by management.

It seems you agree that Rantanen deserves more money than Marner. So I'll give you that. Do you know how many people I've seen make the "back to back 60 point seasons" argument in regards to Nylander vs Pastrnak, only for them to deny that it also applies to Rantanen vs Marner? Will you agree that Dubas messed up big time if Marner makes significantly more money than Rantanen (including term in the equation)?

Pray tell... what do you think about the Matthews contract? Remember... you rationalized Nylander vs Pastrnak based SOLELY on ppg. When we compare Matthews elc ppg to other players who signed 14-15%, it's a flat out complete ****ing total JOKE.

Just curious...would you take 4 1sts for Matthews? Because that is very likely what Dubas 'option was. Really ,for all your bitchin' and moanin' about 'Da money" ...what would your plan have consisted of....and if 'letting him sit ' is your response,don't bother answering.

 

[Fogelhund]

Pray tell... what do you think about the Matthews contract? Remember... you rationalized Nylander vs Pastrnak based SOLELY on ppg. When we compare Matthews elc ppg to other players who signed 14-15%, it's a flat out complete ****ing total JOKE.

I don't have a huge issue with Matthews dollars. Eichel got 13.33%, and I think we'd agree that Matthews is better. But, Eichel got 8 years, and Matthews 5. If we had Matthews on an 8 year contract, I wouldn't complain too much, but it was well overpaid for a five year deal.

Will you agree that Dubas messed up big time if Marner makes significantly more money than Rantanen (including term in the equation)?

Well, there are only two conclusions.

1. Dubas overpaid
2. Rantanen's agent screwed up.

It goes beyond Rantanen and Marner though.... take a look at Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Boeser, McAvoy, Laine.... With that larger sample set, we can calculate the standard deviations from expected salaries for all of them. It will be easy to judge then.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just curious...would you take 4 1sts for Matthews? Because that is very likely what Dubas 'option was. Really ,for all your *****in' and moanin' about 'Da money" ...what would your plan have consisted of....and if 'letting him sit ' is your response,don't bother answering.

I don't for even the slightest of seconds believe that another team would have offered Matthews 11.6x5, AS WELL AS give up 4 first round picks.

Every other star player seems to sign at/around market value, and the "offer sheet threat" was just as applicable to them.

Sure, like Dubas, some gm's give out horrible contracts sometimes. But those contracts are usually universally panned, and those gm's typically don't last long.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I don't have a huge issue with Matthews dollars. Eichel got 13.33%, and I think we'd agree that Matthews is better. But, Eichel got 8 years, and Matthews 5. If we had Matthews on an 8 year contract, I wouldn't complain too much, but it was well overpaid for a five year deal.

I agree that it's specifically TERM that makes Matthews contract horrendous. I'd tolerate 11.6 on an 8 year term.

I will ask though... why is it that when another player signs a HORRIBLE universally panned contract (Eichel), that becomes the new FLOOR for where leaf negotiations begin. Yet when a team-friendly contract is signed, it just doesn't seem to matter for some reason? Look how quick you'll point out that horrible Eichel contract is a comparable for Matthews... but now look at Kucherov and Aho's contracts in comparison to Marner. Why do only player-friendly contracts count as maple leaf comparables?

Well, there are only two conclusions.

1. Dubas overpaid
2. Rantanen's agent screwed up.

It goes beyond Rantanen and Marner though.... take a look at Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Boeser, McAvoy, Laine.... With that larger sample set, we can calculate the standard deviations from expected salaries for all of them. It will be easy to judge then.

I think this applies to Nylander as well though. Look at Ehlers, Pastrnak, Teravianen, etc.
It's not just the cap percentage. It's also the amount of ufa years taken up, and other "player-friendly" perks, such as front loading and signing bonuses. Let's also add that Nylander makes 6.96 over 5.6 nhl seasons. Over the full 6 seasons, his cap hit would be 7.5

It really really seems that Dubas is getting hosed on these deals.

Regardless, I 100% believe that Dubas will pay substantially more for Marner than everyone else for those other players. There will be the usual millions of lame excuses trying to rationalize it.

 

[horner]

My big question may we trade him if he doesn't sign by October. I dont think Dubas wants to go through that Nylander thing again. He said we learnt from it and would do it differently. But if ferris is being an idiot and Marner himself doesn't step in..a trade could happen. I hope it doesn't get to that, but his agent is an ass. I think mitch is staying out of it for now but as soon as camp starts the bigger clock starts ticking he may well step in. Nylander did..just took till the 11th hour and 30min mark.

Teammates usually stay of these things, but with mitch I wonder if any say hey dude I'd say something now. Or more likely, mitch has had enough and really does want to stay a leaf which I think he does, and says ok give me 3 choices I'll pick 1. As of what we know, and heard from Marner, hes letting Ferris do all, and wont do anything until he gets told it's super close or it's done. However I feel that may change with what I mentioned above about camp and season.

Our biggest issue isn't JTs money its Matthew's deal. Ya I know hes a center, but Marners missed way less games, and brings that intangible energy, and fun side to the ice everyday. AM doesn't have the same drive nor personality, and I feel our cup chances gravely go down if mitch isn't playing for us and I think Dubas knows that, and we have a window and obviously Ferris knows it.

I'd tell mitch here's 11.65 but for 6 to 8yr deal. Issue is he wants AM money so that means 11.65 at 5yrs. I'd be happy if it were AM at 6yrs just so all our big guys aren't up at the same time.

Itd be JT and Mitch, then AM then Nylander.

One last thought. I remember seeing a tweet that several GMs got the sense that Mitch doesn't want to leave Toronto (guaranteed he was offered an offer sheet and didn't sign it, how else would a rival GM know unless they spoke to Marner and Ferris) but also in the same tweet said Mitch and leafs are both getting frustrated because there seems to be a deal close (3yr) and long term not so much. That also tells me Mitch actually would rather long term. If a 3yr was that close, and basically offered it means the leafs were willing to go short term, and all the talk mitch wanted that, now would be wrong.

I dont know folks I hope he signs soon. I don't even care if he gets a bit more hes our best player, he drives whatever line, hes ever been on. Hes the only forward who's done that and that's special.

Totally agree with you

 

[Superstar]

First Ferris forces Bolland to make a statement and now he has the Cops pumping Marner.
Where will it stop?

When the buck stops on his lap...cha-ching!

 

[Superstar]

I agree that it's specifically TERM that makes Matthews contract horrendous. I'd tolerate 11.6 on an 8 year term.

I will ask though... why is it that when another player signs a HORRIBLE universally panned contract (Eichel), that becomes the new FLOOR for where leaf negotiations begin. Yet when a team-friendly contract is signed, it just doesn't seem to matter for some reason? Look how quick you'll point out that horrible Eichel contract is a comparable for Matthews... but now look at Kucherov and Aho's contracts in comparison to Marner. Why do only player-friendly contracts count as maple leaf comparables?



I think this applies to Nylander as well though. Look at Ehlers, Pastrnak, Teravianen, etc.
It's not just the cap percentage. It's also the amount of ufa years taken up, and other "player-friendly" perks, such as front loading and signing bonuses. Let's also add that Nylander makes 6.96 over 5.6 nhl seasons. Over the full 6 seasons, his cap hit would be 7.5

It really really seems that Dubas is getting hosed on these deals.

Regardless, I 100% believe that Dubas will pay substantially more for Marner than everyone else for those other players. There will be the usual millions of lame excuses trying to rationalize it.

"We can and we will"...at all cost!

 

[hfman]

I am Onstor the Grand Wizyrd, here to predecit the outcome of the Morener stalemate

My senses tell me he is to

sorry, make that PREDICT....

hang on... re-buffering......

 

[Seras]

Marner is my fave leaf but if they can't get a deal done then might have to look into trading him. This is getting out of hand.

What do you want Dubas to do? Beat up his agent and force Marner to sign at gun point? All Dubas can do is offer what the leafs can pay. He doesn't have super powers.

 

[hector morrison]

I don't for even the slightest of seconds believe that another team would have offered Matthews 11.6x5, AS WELL AS give up 4 first round picks.

Every other star player seems to sign at/around market value, and the "offer sheet threat" was just as applicable to them.

Sure, like Dubas, some gm's give out horrible contracts sometimes. But those contracts are usually universally panned, and those gm's typically don't last long.

Dubas.....remember where you heard it first...will be around for a long time! You seriously don't think another team would have given up the 4 picks,eh? We can never know,but I'm betting there are more than a few that,given their current state of affairs would happily take a fist over -all 230 pound ,6-3 scoring center for picks that most likely would not be first over-all or anywhere near as good as Matthews. Think,Arizona for one.

Also,market value is a moving target,as witnessed by some of this years signings. See where the landscape is in a few years...these Dubas 'giveaways' will look like bargains.

 

[hfman]

i'm just saying MOREner can not and shan not hold out as long as he has.

oh, the stalemate WILL end soon enough, just you watch